Kyle Gibson’s trade value is 0% impacted by his ranking in our rotation. That ranking is utterly irrelevant to his value to anyone, including the Twins.
What makes him valuable is team control .....
First of all, play on the field is the most important thing, but good play always means you are higher on the pecking order. And the higher you value your pitchers the higher the asking price. So you will ask more for your #2 than you will your #4. And I don't believe for a second that other teams don't give consideration to where the pitcher is on your rotation's pecking order. Teams also know whether they need a #3 or #4. They trade to try to fill those holes.
These are people, not robots. Analyzing them as if they are fungible commodities and elevating control or arbitration eligibility isn't the most important thought about what builds a winner. You need to see the whole picture. And a guy who is a leader and good teammate is going to be in demand much more than a meathead with two years of team control. Who cares if you have control if the guy is a cancer in the clubhouse? And I have had players with a million dollar arm and a two bit brain. You don't value the arm as much as you otherwise would, because of the brain. This is why guys with attitude problems don't get many calls while guys who are winners are in demand.
Time under control is a mere secondary consideration. Its nice to have control, but who cares about control if he is not good for your team? Your trading partner has to want the pitcher in the first place.