For the 26th pick overall he would be more of a success than a failure. Including the picks in the 9 years before him he has the second most bwar. No 26th pick after him has reached the majors. As a 26th pick he has not fallen
Might as well compare him to his youth baseball teammates too. Just because he has ultimately achieved more than a subset of the population doesn't mean he hasn't also lagged behind his peers in some contexts.
How many 26th overall picks out of high school are starting in MLB less than 4 years later?
Actually, Swihart was drafted at age 19, had only 6 pro PA before his 20th birthday, and was a MLB starting catcher just after his 23rd, so it was closer to 3 years. I think it's fair to say he's had a fall if he's a DFA candidate by age 26.
Another way to look at it: he was basically a league-average or better hitter every year of his pro career, age 20 through 24, the last 2 coming in MLB. Then at age 25 he collapsed to a 47 wRC+ at AAA, and has followed that with a 25 wRC+ in MLB at age 26. Similar story with health / DL time. He had a fall.
Edited by spycake, 08 July 2018 - 10:03 AM.