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Article: MIN 6, BAL 2: Jake Cave Is the Hero We Deserve

lance lynn jake cave max kepler brian dozier mitch garver
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#21 ashburyjohn

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Posted 07 July 2018 - 11:14 AM

Defense doesn't factor into WPA at all.

Probably we are not far from an extended WPA which does. We now have percentages reflecting the chance of any given fly ball being caught. Take the WPA that would have been added, if that fly ball had been a leadoff homer, apply the percentage chance as a multiplier (subtracted from 100%), and that's the defensive WPA for that play.

 

We Can Rebuild It. We Have The Technology. :)

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#22 ChrisKnutson

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Posted 07 July 2018 - 11:20 AM

This may be stupidly optimistic, but what if we manage to sweep our way to the all star break with a 46-48 record? Would trading Gordon and Gonsalves for a legit game changer like Manny Machado be worth it? Playing him at SS (while moving Polanco to 2nd, Dozier to DH, and cutting Morrison) would only increase our chances of catching Cleveland and convincing him to stay. While I don’t see this happening, I do expect Falvine to pursue Machado over the winter.

#23 ashburyjohn

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Posted 07 July 2018 - 11:27 AM

This may be stupidly optimistic, but what if we manage to sweep our way to the all star break with a 46-48 record?

Forgotten what a 2-game winning streak feels like? Good, isn't it?

 

:) I keed, I keed...

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#24 spycake

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Posted 07 July 2018 - 11:35 AM

Forgotten what a 2-game winning streak feels like? Good, isn't it?

:) I keed, I keed...


The Orioles have probably raised the hopes of many teams this year...
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#25 Steve Penz

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Posted 07 July 2018 - 12:22 PM

Will there soon be a Cave vs Kepler discussion? Both are 25, athletic, can play corner and some center and seem to hit similarly.

#26 spycake

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Posted 07 July 2018 - 12:33 PM

Will there soon be a Cave vs Kepler discussion? Both are 25, athletic, can play corner and some center and seem to hit similarly.


Cave K's a lot more than Kepler. Kepler should have the productivity advantage, if he can ever manage a league average BABIP.

#27 BJames

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Posted 07 July 2018 - 12:53 PM

 

Will there soon be a Cave vs Kepler discussion? Both are 25, athletic, can play corner and some center and seem to hit similarly.

Don't you mean Cave - Buxton?Buxton is the one Bombing.Kepler is still on the edge.But, yes, Cave could cover for either.

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#28 yarnivek1972

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Posted 07 July 2018 - 01:11 PM

Lot of posts here suggesting that Mauer in 2019 is a foregone conclusion. I think it is far more likely that he retires. He’s well aware that he isn’t an everyday player anymore. In this era of 13 man pitching staffs, you can’t roster a guy at a power position that you know will be unavailable for at least 1/4 of the games.

Edited by yarnivek1972, 07 July 2018 - 01:12 PM.

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#29 jkcarew

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Posted 07 July 2018 - 10:43 PM

Lot of posts here suggesting that Mauer in 2019 is a foregone conclusion. I think it is far more likely that he retires. He’s well aware that he isn’t an everyday player anymore. In this era of 13 man pitching staffs, you can’t roster a guy at a power position that you know will be unavailable for at least 1/4 of the games.


Not to mention OPS in the neighborhood of 700 for the other 3/4 of games.
Now, if he could catch....never mind.

#30 jkcarew

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Posted 07 July 2018 - 11:51 PM

Cave K's a lot more than Kepler. Kepler should have the productivity advantage, if he can ever manage a league average BABIP.


But why would we expect Kepler to turn into a league average BABIP guy? For some profiles (e.g. Dozier) it never normalizes to average, and Kepler shows every sign of being one of those guys. Never been even in shouting distance of league average...an easy target for aggressive shifts, rarely hits a ball hard to the left of center, etc. I don’t think it’s that much of a stretch to think Cave couldn’t be in the same neighborhood OBP-wise as Kepler, with the difference being who consistently shows more SLG.

#31 jorgenswest

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Posted 08 July 2018 - 06:02 AM

Cave K's a lot more than Kepler. Kepler should have the productivity advantage, if he can ever manage a league average BABIP.


Yes. In addition, he doesn’t need a league average BABIP with his peripherals. He just needs to get back towards his norm which is much better than .239. He would have an OPS around .800 when he gets back to his norm.



Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: lance lynn, jake cave, max kepler, brian dozier, mitch garver