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Article: Prioritizing Trade Candidates for the Deadline

brian dozier fernando rodney lance lynn kyle gibson
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#81 wsnydes

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Posted 07 July 2018 - 10:14 AM

A prospect that is low level but has a tool or two is not a non prospect. That was the minimal level for a prospect. I stated at the outset. No tools, not much of a chance to make it

I don't disagree with that assessment. My initial point was in regards to your first sentence in your first post of the thread that stated that there isn't a point of trading a player for a non-prospect. That was what I was initially replying to. Obviously the point is to maximize value, but if that is a non-prospect so be it. It's better than nothing.

I look at it this way. If I'm not trying to improve the franchise, as a whole in some way, then I'm not trying. If I'm not trying, that's a problem. Letting a guy that has no future in the organization walk without any return, in my view, is not trying.

Edited by wsnydes, 07 July 2018 - 10:33 AM.

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#82 BJames

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Posted 07 July 2018 - 12:57 PM

Bring Back Vargas!!!!!!!!!!!!!


#83 mngopherguy

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Posted 07 July 2018 - 07:04 PM

 

Here's my Take.

 

The Twins have two deadlines: Starting today and going thru the end of July, trding someone.

The entire month of August, but hopefully soon out of the gate, putting players on waivers and letting them to whomever places a claim.

 

Sadly, there is not alot to offer in trade, just a dangle and the possibility of getting something in return besides salary relief. Of course, players that you have little but salary invested in, you should be happy to get anything.

 

Allowing a team to walk with a player in August is true salary relief from a body that you have no interest in retaining. If you can still get a prospect back, more power. Happily, you don't have to negotiate with a waiver claim in August. The team takes the player and their contract as is.

 

That said, some thoughts.

 

The Twins NEED to see any and all players that will be contributing to the team in 2019 and beyond. If they have no chance of being on the 2019 roster, let them go sooner rather than later. If there is a smidgen of a chance that they won't be here in 2020 (Odorizzi and Gibson are the notables), try and trade.

 

That said:

 

Catcher. You have to see if Mitch Garver can improve. Bobby Wilson, bless his sole, should've been working with the arms of the future at Rochester more than up here. Now it is too late to consider him a Crash Davis as, according to my plan, the young arms he would work with will be mostly up here. Thus, you can look at Graterol or Rupp as the temporary backup for this year, is Willians isn't competent. Are any of the alternatives prospects for 2019? Probably not. And, remember, we will still have Castro and his framing glove abck for another year in 2019. So we should be content that we have a decent bench bat who can catch in Garver for 2019, as well as Castro, who isn't going anywhere unless he is so injured that he never plays ball again. You lose Wilson and get a 40-man. You might add Graterol/Rupp for the season to take that 40-man spot.

 

INFIELD: The Brian Dozier era is done, sad to say. Two factors. He clearly expressed an interest to look at free agency. The team has no desire to sign him longterm or for extended years. Trade him for a prospect (or two) and if you want to revisit him in the offseason, you will be able to do that at a possible lower cost. 40-man spot cleared. Bring up Nick Gordon, who may not be ready, but play him and see what he has to work on. At best, he does adequate and leans. At worse, you send him down in 3/4 weeks to work a bit more at AAA. He takes your open 40-man spot.

 

KEEPERS: Polanco, Adrianza. Escobar. Ehire is your swing man. Polanco is the shortstop (or the second baseman if you ditch Dozier and play Gordon at short). Escobar is at third. You explore with Eduarco an extension. AT worse, you have him for three years and either trade him in one or have an expensive utility infielder. At worse, he tanks next year totally. So what is an Escobar gamble? Three years? $20 million? $25 million? As you start thinking more, you start wondering if something abck in trade is more worthwhile and, like Dozier, you take a chance in offseason offers being low. Remember, you don't get a guy cheaper unless he enters the free agency marketplace with another team's cap. We have Motter currently on the disabled list. He goes and you have a free 40-man spot.

 

JOE MAUER:.Right now, I look at Joe in two ways. Either this is his swan song with the Twins, you announce it now that he is more than likely leaving the game, and give him a farewell tour. Or you trade Joe to Boston or Chicago Cubs if they want him with a chance to be in the post season and end his career that way. Hasw the front office made it clear not to bring Joe back? Public relations nightmare? Maybe not as bad as one would think. You need to entertain offers and discuss with Joe and force him to make a career decision. Combined with Logan Morrison, who is a slim possibility of getting you a return of a body at the trade deadline and more likely to get a waiver claim and a salary writeoff, you might be oipen to two roster spots. My choices, then, bring back Kennys Cargas as a last chance looksee. And if you have two, Chris Carter can't contribute any worse with the bat than Logan Morrison and would also be resignable, perhaps, for 2019. At the outside, you push up Brent Rooker.

 

OUTFIELD: Rosario, Kepler, Cave. That's are set grouping for now. Convince me the need to bring Grossman back for 2019? If not, replace him with Granite and let's see Zack get sometime in centerfield, like 15-20 games, and if he can be a 4th outfielder or some speed on the path. If 40-man space exists, go ahead and advance LaMonte Wade. Or at least aim for that direction come September.

 

MIGUEL SANO and BYRON BUXTON - keep them in the minors until necessarily needed (they become too hot in the minors or your current players are worse than the stats the two put up already for 2018). But you now have the luxury of looking at some other pieces, decided if Miguel or Escobar will be at third, if Miguel can play 1st, or be dommed to DH land.

 

THE ROTATION. Trade Lynn if there are any takers. Showcase santana and, at the last, allow him to be a waiver claim. You can deal with him in the off-season then. Think of what his value MAY be. Same, again, for Lynn. I'm sure msot folks would agree there is no need to offer Lance Lynn an extended contract.

 

Kyle Gibson and Jake Odorizzi. Both trade guys. You should be able to generate some offers. Yes, both COULD make the team in 2019. But do you really see them as Twins in 2020. Do you have faith in better arms ahead?

 

Go with a 6-man rotation for the rest of the season: Berrios, Slegers, Mejia, Littell, Goncalves. You are killing Rochester. At some point you bring up May and Stewart (whom you need to decide if you wish to add to the 40-man anyways). What have you got to lose. All except Steward are on the 40-man. You will be removing 2-3 pitchers from the 40-man.Remember, Pinedas might also be returning for some September innings.

 

THE BULLPEN: Trade Fernando Rodney and Zach Duke. Both should be pieces that could go as early as tomorrow. Think about jettisoning Addison Reed is someone wants, you free up his expense for 2019. You have so many arms in the minors: Duffey, Reed, Curtis,. Moya, Busenitz already on the 40-man. Vets like Omar Bencomo and Paco Rodriguez. 40-man considerations like Nick Anderson, Luke Bard, Tyler Jay. Maybe even Baxendale should be considered. You lose 3-4 40-man spots in the bullpen (remember, Belisle is taking a spot).

 

You aren't getting much back in return, sadly, except some non-payouts in salary to offset the empty seats during August/September. You have a lot of cheap jerseys to sell at the State Fai.

 

You have a couple of looksees who may not fit into 2019 in the black hole of 1B/DH in Vargas and Carter. You have to make a big decision on Sano. You have to think about spending money on Escobar, or find some guy named Petit to come back until you can enter the off-season.

 

Joe Mauer is becoming more of an issue than a franchise player and the pluf has to be pulled.

 

And, you pull the plug early on manager. Let the front office bring up their guy, Joel Skinner, to finish the season.

 

But you GET RID OF ANYONE/EVERYONE WHO WON'T BE AROUND IN 2019 TODAY...not tomorrow. You question keeping some of the 2019s who don't stand a chance of being here in 2020. Go forth with the plan, teh rebuilding plan!

 

The Beat writers certainly could be wrong, but they've both already said Mauer and Molitor will both be back next year.  

 


#84 mngopherguy

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Posted 07 July 2018 - 07:05 PM

 

Okay, how about this? If Jake Cave is the real deal, trade Buxton?

 

Or, drop Grossman and make Cave the 4th outfielder and keep him in games by rotating him through the outfield spots?

 

Trade Buxton at all time low value with options?No thanks.

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#85 mngopherguy

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Posted 07 July 2018 - 07:11 PM

 

I don't disagree with that assessment. My initial point was in regards to your first sentence in your first post of the thread that stated that there isn't a point of trading a player for a non-prospect. That was what I was initially replying to. Obviously the point is to maximize value, but if that is a non-prospect so be it. It's better than nothing.

I look at it this way. If I'm not trying to improve the franchise, as a whole in some way, then I'm not trying. If I'm not trying, that's a problem. Letting a guy that has no future in the organization walk without any return, in my view, is not trying.

 

In general I agree, but that non prospect is taking playing time away from someone.

 


#86 Thrylos

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Posted 07 July 2018 - 07:31 PM

 

Yeah, Gordon was not brought up when Polanco was suspended. That must mean he is not ready. My question is, will he be ready if Dozier is traded?

 

He does not have to be.The point is that the Twins are not going anywhere so there is no down side of playing the kids to see who cuts it and who does not.

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#87 wsnydes

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Posted 07 July 2018 - 07:32 PM

In general I agree, but that non prospect is taking playing time away from someone.

The idea would be that they'd be an improvement over that somebody, so that shouldn't be an issue.

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#88 Thrylos

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Posted 07 July 2018 - 07:36 PM

 

 

 

 

JOE MAUER:.Right now, I look at Joe in two ways. Either this is his swan song with the Twins, you announce it now that he is more than likely leaving the game, and give him a farewell tour. Or you trade Joe to Boston or Chicago Cubs if they want him with a chance to be in the post season and end his career that way.

 

The Mauer situation is more complicated than one may think, as far as 2018 goes:

 

a. He has a full no trade clause, so if he does not want to, he can refuse to be traded

b. He expects his third child in November, which might make the option of playing for a post-season team a bit less attractive to him.

 

As far as 2019 goes, it is too early to tell at this point.

 

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#89 spycake

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Posted 07 July 2018 - 08:20 PM

JOE MAUER:.Right now, I look at Joe in two ways. Either this is his swan song with the Twins, you announce it now that he is more than likely leaving the game, and give him a farewell tour.


I don't care for farewell tours, too much of a distraction. Just let him play like normal and make up his mind in the offseason. In any case, I'll give him an extra round of applause attending my last home game of the year.
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#90 Blake

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Posted 07 July 2018 - 09:54 PM

I'm going to guess the Twins don't do much at the trade deadline. Not because they wouldn't like to, but, rather, it's going to be due to a lack of interest.

 

Bremer actually made what I think was an astute observation when he wondered if there is really going to be any sort of trade deadline market this year.

 

I have to admit, after the non-existent FA market this last year, Mr Bremer may be on to something.

 

Things have changed when it comes to player trades. Should be an interesting trade deadline this year.

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#91 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 08 July 2018 - 05:48 AM

 

I'm going to guess the Twins don't do much at the trade deadline. Not because they wouldn't like to, but, rather, it's going to be due to a lack of interest.

 

Bremer actually made what I think was an astute observation when he wondered if there is really going to be any sort of trade deadline market this year.

 

I have to admit, after the non-existent FA market this last year, Mr Bremer may be on to something.

 

Things have changed when it comes to player trades. Should be an interesting trade deadline this year.

 

I think no market would be odd. There are still teams in the hunt trying to solidify a roster for a playoff/WS run...

 

What you may see is more sellers and less buyers. That will depress prices on any non-premium assets. 


#92 Blake

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Posted 08 July 2018 - 07:19 AM

 

I think no market would be odd. There are still teams in the hunt trying to solidify a roster for a playoff/WS run...

 

What you may see is more sellers and less buyers. That will depress prices on any non-premium assets. 

I think we're on the same page. I don't believe there will be no market, I just wonder if there will be enough of a market for anything the Twins have to offer.

 

Kind of astounding how fast the market has changed, I must admit.


#93 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 08 July 2018 - 07:31 AM

 

I think we're on the same page. I don't believe there will be no market, I just wonder if there will be enough of a market for anything the Twins have to offer.

 

Kind of astounding how fast the market has changed, I must admit.

 

I think most of the Twins tradeable assets will have some value. Escobar and Gibson would be an upgrade (and likely significant) on a number of playoff teams. They should fetch top price if on the market. Other than maybe DeGrom, there really aren't any impact pitchers available. I would expect a top 150 prospect for these guys and probably something else.

 

Lynn would be a perfectly acceptable 5th starter for any team really struggling at the back of the rotation. The question there is how many other pitchers are out there that fit that bill, because supply is what will ultimately depress his price.

 

Dozier will depend on what other 2Bs are on the market and if someone wants to make a bet that he could get hot (or hopefully he gets hot and solves that problem for us).

 

Teams always need bullpen help, especially when every team has at least 7 spots and someone who could be upgraded. Again, it's supply/demand. I'm sure there will be other relievers on the market. The question is how many are available and how many teams are buying. I don't see a scenario where Rodney, Duke, or Pressley couldn't get something, though most likely in the high risk/high reward type category. 

 

So yeah, I think the Twins could unload all of these guys. Other than Gibby and Escobar though, I don't expect much in the way of high quality prospects.

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#94 Riverbrian

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Posted 08 July 2018 - 07:47 AM

In general I agree, but that non prospect is taking playing time away from someone.


I’m having trust issues with the clubs ability to identify the difference between prospect and non prospect. 🧐
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#95 Blake

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Posted 08 July 2018 - 08:01 AM

 

I think most of the Twins tradeable assets will have some value. Escobar and Gibson would be an upgrade (and likely significant) on a number of playoff teams. They should fetch top price if on the market. Other than maybe DeGrom, there really aren't any impact pitchers available. I would expect a top 150 prospect for these guys and probably something else.

 

Lynn would be a perfectly acceptable 5th starter for any team really struggling at the back of the rotation. The question there is how many other pitchers are out there that fit that bill, because supply is what will ultimately depress his price.

 

Dozier will depend on what other 2Bs are on the market and if someone wants to make a bet that he could get hot (or hopefully he gets hot and solves that problem for us).

 

Teams always need bullpen help, especially when every team has at least 7 spots and someone who could be upgraded. Again, it's supply/demand. I'm sure there will be other relievers on the market. The question is how many are available and how many teams are buying. I don't see a scenario where Rodney, Duke, or Pressley couldn't get something, though most likely in the high risk/high reward type category. 

 

So yeah, I think the Twins could unload all of these guys. Other than Gibby and Escobar though, I don't expect much in the way of high quality prospects.

You're much more optimistic than I am. 

 

Again, should be interesting.


#96 beckmt

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Posted 08 July 2018 - 10:07 AM

I agree it is going to be a strange market.My worry is that teams like the Astros and Yankees both with great farm systems use this market to buy controlable assets at cheap prices because of the great number of bad teams more than 3 years from contending and how MLB will address this in the future.


#97 jtkoupal

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Posted 08 July 2018 - 11:50 AM

Eduardo Escobar for Shane Bieber.

 

Who says no?


#98 TheLeviathan

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Posted 08 July 2018 - 12:00 PM

 

Eduardo Escobar for Shane Bieber.

 

Who says no?

 

The Indians. 

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#99 howieramone2

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Posted 09 July 2018 - 09:18 AM

Lynn will be one of the better starters in the market. If we get a player that can help this season, it will be by trading Lynn. I would also like to see Ecobar extended for 3 seasons.

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#100 ashbury

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Posted 09 July 2018 - 11:18 AM

Eduardo Escobar for Shane Bieber.

 

Who says no?

Cleveland. Bieber's too MLB-ready and probably too good, to be had for someone's super-sub infielder. His stock has surely risen this year.

 

It could be the starting point for a discussion, if the Twins are willing to include a good pitching prospect, and the Indians throw in a so-so position player prospect to re-balance the deal. But then the Twins probably say no.

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So, in conclusion, what was your question again?




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