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Article: Prioritizing Trade Candidates for the Deadline

brian dozier fernando rodney lance lynn kyle gibson
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#61 TheLeviathan

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 04:55 PM

 

We all get how this works, trades are an unpredictable endeavor. However, this team should be moving at least a half dozen players this summer most of which will bring back returns ranges from "OK, I can live with that" to "Not another Cash Considerations or a PTBNL!!!". Gibson's the only one with potential to increase his value to something substantial.

Unless they do nothing they should be flooded with more organizational filler than they can handle. They wouldn't be risking much to roll the dice that Gibson doesn't blow out his arm in the next three months.

 

I just don't see how August and September are going to move the needle on Gibson.That's essentially what you're saying - Aug and September will make him more valuable in December.

 

Right now his most valuable asset is he'll give you a year plus of team control.I think his team control right now is worth more than any increments of value you might accrue by him continuing to pitch well for two meaningless months with the Twins.

 

I see little or no upside in waiting on him. 

Edited by TheLeviathan, 06 July 2018 - 04:56 PM.

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#62 TheLeviathan

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 04:57 PM

 

After last offseason it's certainly possible agents adjust their method and advise players to accept the QO.

 

All the more reason not to offer those two a QO.I am under no illusion about the team spending big this offseason, but tying up 34M in these two doesn't sit well with me.

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#63 Rosterman

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 05:00 PM

Here's my Take.

 

The Twins have two deadlines: Starting today and going thru the end of July, trding someone.

The entire month of August, but hopefully soon out of the gate, putting players on waivers and letting them to whomever places a claim.

 

Sadly, there is not alot to offer in trade, just a dangle and the possibility of getting something in return besides salary relief. Of course, players that you have little but salary invested in, you should be happy to get anything.

 

Allowing a team to walk with a player in August is true salary relief from a body that you have no interest in retaining. If you can still get a prospect back, more power. Happily, you don't have to negotiate with a waiver claim in August. The team takes the player and their contract as is.

 

That said, some thoughts.

 

The Twins NEED to see any and all players that will be contributing to the team in 2019 and beyond. If they have no chance of being on the 2019 roster, let them go sooner rather than later. If there is a smidgen of a chance that they won't be here in 2020 (Odorizzi and Gibson are the notables), try and trade.

 

That said:

 

Catcher. You have to see if Mitch Garver can improve. Bobby Wilson, bless his sole, should've been working with the arms of the future at Rochester more than up here. Now it is too late to consider him a Crash Davis as, according to my plan, the young arms he would work with will be mostly up here. Thus, you can look at Graterol or Rupp as the temporary backup for this year, is Willians isn't competent. Are any of the alternatives prospects for 2019? Probably not. And, remember, we will still have Castro and his framing glove abck for another year in 2019. So we should be content that we have a decent bench bat who can catch in Garver for 2019, as well as Castro, who isn't going anywhere unless he is so injured that he never plays ball again. You lose Wilson and get a 40-man. You might add Graterol/Rupp for the season to take that 40-man spot.

 

INFIELD: The Brian Dozier era is done, sad to say. Two factors. He clearly expressed an interest to look at free agency. The team has no desire to sign him longterm or for extended years. Trade him for a prospect (or two) and if you want to revisit him in the offseason, you will be able to do that at a possible lower cost. 40-man spot cleared. Bring up Nick Gordon, who may not be ready, but play him and see what he has to work on. At best, he does adequate and leans. At worse, you send him down in 3/4 weeks to work a bit more at AAA. He takes your open 40-man spot.

 

KEEPERS: Polanco, Adrianza. Escobar. Ehire is your swing man. Polanco is the shortstop (or the second baseman if you ditch Dozier and play Gordon at short). Escobar is at third. You explore with Eduarco an extension. AT worse, you have him for three years and either trade him in one or have an expensive utility infielder. At worse, he tanks next year totally. So what is an Escobar gamble? Three years? $20 million? $25 million? As you start thinking more, you start wondering if something abck in trade is more worthwhile and, like Dozier, you take a chance in offseason offers being low. Remember, you don't get a guy cheaper unless he enters the free agency marketplace with another team's cap. We have Motter currently on the disabled list. He goes and you have a free 40-man spot.

 

JOE MAUER:.Right now, I look at Joe in two ways. Either this is his swan song with the Twins, you announce it now that he is more than likely leaving the game, and give him a farewell tour. Or you trade Joe to Boston or Chicago Cubs if they want him with a chance to be in the post season and end his career that way. Hasw the front office made it clear not to bring Joe back? Public relations nightmare? Maybe not as bad as one would think. You need to entertain offers and discuss with Joe and force him to make a career decision. Combined with Logan Morrison, who is a slim possibility of getting you a return of a body at the trade deadline and more likely to get a waiver claim and a salary writeoff, you might be oipen to two roster spots. My choices, then, bring back Kennys Cargas as a last chance looksee. And if you have two, Chris Carter can't contribute any worse with the bat than Logan Morrison and would also be resignable, perhaps, for 2019. At the outside, you push up Brent Rooker.

 

OUTFIELD: Rosario, Kepler, Cave. That's are set grouping for now. Convince me the need to bring Grossman back for 2019? If not, replace him with Granite and let's see Zack get sometime in centerfield, like 15-20 games, and if he can be a 4th outfielder or some speed on the path. If 40-man space exists, go ahead and advance LaMonte Wade. Or at least aim for that direction come September.

 

MIGUEL SANO and BYRON BUXTON - keep them in the minors until necessarily needed (they become too hot in the minors or your current players are worse than the stats the two put up already for 2018). But you now have the luxury of looking at some other pieces, decided if Miguel or Escobar will be at third, if Miguel can play 1st, or be dommed to DH land.

 

THE ROTATION. Trade Lynn if there are any takers. Showcase santana and, at the last, allow him to be a waiver claim. You can deal with him in the off-season then. Think of what his value MAY be. Same, again, for Lynn. I'm sure msot folks would agree there is no need to offer Lance Lynn an extended contract.

 

Kyle Gibson and Jake Odorizzi. Both trade guys. You should be able to generate some offers. Yes, both COULD make the team in 2019. But do you really see them as Twins in 2020. Do you have faith in better arms ahead?

 

Go with a 6-man rotation for the rest of the season: Berrios, Slegers, Mejia, Littell, Goncalves. You are killing Rochester. At some point you bring up May and Stewart (whom you need to decide if you wish to add to the 40-man anyways). What have you got to lose. All except Steward are on the 40-man. You will be removing 2-3 pitchers from the 40-man.Remember, Pinedas might also be returning for some September innings.

 

THE BULLPEN: Trade Fernando Rodney and Zach Duke. Both should be pieces that could go as early as tomorrow. Think about jettisoning Addison Reed is someone wants, you free up his expense for 2019. You have so many arms in the minors: Duffey, Reed, Curtis,. Moya, Busenitz already on the 40-man. Vets like Omar Bencomo and Paco Rodriguez. 40-man considerations like Nick Anderson, Luke Bard, Tyler Jay. Maybe even Baxendale should be considered. You lose 3-4 40-man spots in the bullpen (remember, Belisle is taking a spot).

 

You aren't getting much back in return, sadly, except some non-payouts in salary to offset the empty seats during August/September. You have a lot of cheap jerseys to sell at the State Fai.

 

You have a couple of looksees who may not fit into 2019 in the black hole of 1B/DH in Vargas and Carter. You have to make a big decision on Sano. You have to think about spending money on Escobar, or find some guy named Petit to come back until you can enter the off-season.

 

Joe Mauer is becoming more of an issue than a franchise player and the pluf has to be pulled.

 

And, you pull the plug early on manager. Let the front office bring up their guy, Joel Skinner, to finish the season.

 

But you GET RID OF ANYONE/EVERYONE WHO WON'T BE AROUND IN 2019 TODAY...not tomorrow. You question keeping some of the 2019s who don't stand a chance of being here in 2020. Go forth with the plan, teh rebuilding plan!

 

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#64 yarnivek1972

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 05:09 PM

I don’t understand calls for a 6 man rotation. Wasn’t this idea shot down as impractical a month or so ago?

How do you have 6 starters, 8 relievers and still have any semblance of a bench? Having 6 starters certainly doesn’t preclude the need for 8 relievers. It’s not workable. It worked for the Angels because one of their starting pitchers was also their DH.
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#65 Blake

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 06:04 PM

Okay, how about this? If Jake Cave is the real deal, trade Buxton?

 

Or, drop Grossman and make Cave the 4th outfielder and keep him in games by rotating him through the outfield spots?

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#66 wsnydes

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 06:57 PM

What players have ever benefited from the late season call up and who is the equivalent player now in Rochester

Are you suggesting that experience doesn't help one learn?

How can it not help? Getting a taste and to know what you need to work on during the off-season to make the active roster in the spring. Experience is never a bad thing. If experience didn't matter, nobody would ever get better at what they do.

It doesn't have to be someone from Rochester. It could be anyone that is called up. That experience gives them lessons that can't be taught anywhere but game situations at the highest level.

Edited by wsnydes, 06 July 2018 - 06:59 PM.

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#67 Kelly Vance

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 08:42 PM

Tonight Dick and Bert agreed that it is not smart to trade Eduardo. He is not just a good player, they said, but he is a leader and respected and liked by his team mates. They said that he is a catalyst for good team chemistry. 

 

Just what I have been saying. 

 

I hope they extend Eduardo for 3.  

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#68 TheLeviathan

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 08:47 PM

I generally live my life by "What would Dick and Bert agree on" and then do the exact opposite of that.

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#69 yarnivek1972

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 09:01 PM

So, MOY using Rodney on 0 days rest in a non save situation.

I’d bet Rogers can get 3 outs without giving up 4 runs.

Oops. Somehow I thought this was the game thread.

Edited by yarnivek1972, 06 July 2018 - 09:06 PM.


#70 Mike Sixel

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 09:02 PM

So, MOY using Rodney on 0 days rest in a non save situation.

I’d bet Rogers can get 3 outs without giving up 4 runs.


Or just leave Matthew in.

It's IL now, btw, not DL.....


#71 old nurse

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 09:03 PM

 

Are you suggesting that experience doesn't help one learn?

How can it not help? Getting a taste and to know what you need to work on during the off-season to make the active roster in the spring. Experience is never a bad thing. If experience didn't matter, nobody would ever get better at what they do.

It doesn't have to be someone from Rochester. It could be anyone that is called up. That experience gives them lessons that can't be taught anywhere but game situations at the highest level.

So, do you put a fourth grader getting b grades in a college prep class? Sure they will fail, but what a learning experience.If a player is ready to be called up in July or August they will likely get the call. If not, forexperience, a September call up works.If Cave fails Wade will get a chance with or without a trade. Rooker is likely a September call up. I doubt he would get the cal before then. He hasn't even faced AAA pitching.AA was an adjustment at first.

 

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#72 Mike Sixel

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 09:06 PM

So, do you put a fourth grader getting b grades in a college prep class? Sure they will fail, but what a learning experience. If a player is ready to be called up in July or August they will likely get the call. If not, for experience, a September call up works. If Cave fails Wade will get a chance with or without a trade. Rooker is likely a September call up. I doubt he would get the cal before then. He hasn't even faced AAA pitching. AA was an adjustment at first.


Worked for Doogie Houser....
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It's IL now, btw, not DL.....


#73 Kelly Vance

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 09:24 PM

 

Okay, how about this? If Jake Cave is the real deal, trade Buxton?

 

Or, drop Grossman and make Cave the 4th outfielder and keep him in games by rotating him through the outfield spots?

The second idea.

 

But I'd just make him play CF if he can, so Keps and Eddie can stay at home. Why disturb the entire group? Although I am not averse to cross training outfields for a little while. I always believed that switching things up made them better at backing each other up. It also helps them learn the field, the whole field, and this helps with general field awareness.  Its good to see the play from a different angle. But then on a regular basis play them where they are best at. 

 

 

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#74 Kelly Vance

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 10:21 PM

They expand the rosters and allow call ups for a reason. And that reason is not to discourage young guys showing off. Minors are auditions for the majors. So September calls ups doing great is a great story.

 

But next year is a long way off. And with the Twins, their mind is often so made up (well, maybe Molly's is) that they may as well not even say that there are open roster spots going into spring training. 

 

Lamarre batted .485 in spring training and Molly didn't play him even when he was hotternhell. He played favorites with Grossman, who I like by the way, and played him instead. So why bother busting your ass if you are Lamarre?

 

Molly plays favorites with pitchers too. He over uses certain relievers, like they are so much 6'2'' security blankets. I want to think he will learn.

 

Put me down as in favor of giving AA players --- who are hot --- a chance to jump the line in September and make it. Where is the crime in that? 

 

I don't know how many times a minor leaguer has made the team the next year by a good September. But I will tell you, that the real question for me is ...."Do minor leaguers believe... and will they take their shot...?" I hope so.

 

Makes for interesting Septembers.

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#75 wsnydes

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Posted 07 July 2018 - 04:51 AM

 

So, do you put a fourth grader getting b grades in a college prep class? Sure they will fail, but what a learning experience.If a player is ready to be called up in July or August they will likely get the call. If not, forexperience, a September call up works.If Cave fails Wade will get a chance with or without a trade. Rooker is likely a September call up. I doubt he would get the cal before then. He hasn't even faced AAA pitching.AA was an adjustment at first.

You asked me what players have ever benefited from the late season call up, implying that that experience doesn't matter. Obviously you aren't going to call up someone that isn't already on the cusp anyway. I wasn't suggesting that you do. If you think I was speaking about Gordon in particular, I wasn't. My initial comment was a general statement about getting players experience.Nothing more, nothing less. Trading players opens opportunities for other players and that experience has value.  

 

Edited by wsnydes, 07 July 2018 - 04:53 AM.

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#76 old nurse

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Posted 07 July 2018 - 05:07 AM

 

Worked for Doogie Houser....

Dougir houser was not a b student.


#77 old nurse

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Posted 07 July 2018 - 05:14 AM

 

You asked me what players have ever benefited from the late season call up, implying that that experience doesn't matter. Obviously you aren't going to call up someone that isn't already on the cusp anyway. I wasn't suggesting that you do. If you think I was speaking about Gordon in particular, I wasn't. My initial comment was a general statement about getting players experience.Nothing more, nothing less. Trading players opens opportunities for other players and that experience has value.  

Those few players on the cusp are September call ups.No need to clear a roster spot for that


#78 wsnydes

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Posted 07 July 2018 - 06:02 AM

 

Those few players on the cusp are September call ups.No need to clear a roster spot for that

Even though I really don't disagree with you there, I still think that it makes no sense not to deal a guy even if its for a non-prospect type.You never know when that player may fill a needed role or even strike gold they become a solid player.Letting a guy walk for nothing when you have a chance to get something in return makes no sense to me.I don't care how many of those types of players the organization has.

 

The exception in that case would be if you felt that you can extend the player before they hit the market.

"Sometimes you win. Sometimes you lose. Sometimes it rains." 


#79 spycake

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Posted 07 July 2018 - 08:24 AM

Tonight Dick and Bert agreed that it is not smart to trade Eduardo. He is not just a good player, they said, but he is a leader and respected and liked by his team mates. They said that he is a catalyst for good team chemistry.

Just what I have been saying.

I hope they extend Eduardo for 3.


So the current Twins chemistry should be maintained? I'd rather they prioritize talent acquisition.
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#80 old nurse

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Posted 07 July 2018 - 08:47 AM

 

Even though I really don't disagree with you there, I still think that it makes no sense not to deal a guy even if its for a non-prospect type.You never know when that player may fill a needed role or even strike gold they become a solid player.Letting a guy walk for nothing when you have a chance to get something in return makes no sense to me.I don't care how many of those types of players the organization has.

 

The exception in that case would be if you felt that you can extend the player before they hit the market.

A prospect that is low level but has a tool or two is not a non prospect. That was the minimallevel for a prospect. I stated at the outset.No tools, not much of a chance to make it




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