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Article: Prioritizing Trade Candidates for the Deadline

brian dozier fernando rodney lance lynn kyle gibson
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#41 TheLeviathan

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 01:01 PM

 

I agree, but I wouldn't be surprised if other teams tried to place his value using his spotty history.

 

If so, I'd hang on to him and look to move him in the offseason after a full year of proving his worth (fingers crossed) or hang on to him if they are ready for a managerial overhaul in 2019 and another stab at contention.

 

Man, there is a lot of risk with that.Dozier is a poster boy for this cautionary tale.


#42 Kelly Vance

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 01:07 PM

 

I think this overvalues Dozier and probably undervalues Lynn a bit. I figured those two would get similar returns, and I don't see Dozier bring in several mid-level prospects. Someone might send a decent prospect our way on a flier that he gets hot, but they aren't sending a bunch... now if he suddenly starts hitting, that would be different.

 

I think Levi mentioned trading Pressley as he has only a year of control left. He might net a decent prospect.

 

Yeah, Die Hard, but pitchers are really critical down the stretch when arms get tired. Not so much pitchers that periodically struggle with command  


#43 Kelly Vance

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 01:09 PM

 

Are we as fans really ready to see Gordon? He has a worse OPS in AAA then guys we want cut in the majors?

IMO he is a guy us fans are going to love to hate if he isn't really good.

 

Yeah, Gordon was not brought up when Polanco was suspended. That must mean he is not ready. My question is, will he be ready if Dozier is traded?


#44 Kelly Vance

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 01:11 PM

 

I've always thought Mauer would be a fantastic fit for Fenway Park. He hasn't been the same hitter since those fly balls that landed in the first row in LF at the Dome became outs at Target Field. Those balls would be over or off the wall at Fenway.Would he waive his no-trade clause for a chance at a World Series with the Red Sox?

 

I remember Joaquin Andujar saying when he played his first game at Fenway. "This is like a slow pitch softball field"


#45 nicksaviking

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 01:24 PM

 

Man, there is a lot of risk with that.Dozier is a poster boy for this cautionary tale.

 

In my view this team needs to be taking more high-reward type risks. I mean if Gibson can bring back a pretty dang good haul now I'm fine with a July deal, but if we're talking about a Stephen Gonsalves type return, eh, I don't think your risking much by waiting. 90% of the board was fine passing on Jose De Leon when Dozier was peaking as well. 

 

But again, I'm only trading Gibson assuming this team isn't going to be a legit contending next year. My first preference is they make the changes needed to do so.


#46 caninatl04

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 01:37 PM

If he cared about that, he would have asked for a trade years ago.
Without knowing him personally, it sure seems like all he wants to do is play for his home state's team, and be close to his family.

But, in past years, he would have to stay with the new team for the length of his contract or get traded back. This is the first time he knows he CAN come back as a FA

#47 caninatl04

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 01:44 PM

So ... controversial point here:
 
There are some advantages to the American system of trading players rather than buying and selling for cash as is the norm in world football. (Principally, it limits the ability of a rich owner to acquire players without giving any up.) But there are serious disadvantages.
 
Monetary economists argue that the advantage of money transactions over barter is the elimination of a "double coincidence of wants." Under barter (as in MLB), we not only have to find a seller with something we want, but he must want something we have. Only a few teams are interested in a 2B and they may not have the ideal trade pieces that the Twins would want for Dozier, for example.
 
One way in which this impacts the Twins currently is the inability to use multiple small sales to finance one big purchase. For example, suppose that we were able to sell 4 players (Dozier, Lynn, Duke, and Rodney, for example) for $5m each. We could then use that money to fund a $20m purchase (Realmuto?). The numbers are made up, but you probably get the idea.
 
Under the current system, no one wants to pick up 4 useful but not stellar players that we could offer (especially a team like Miami). So although we may have sufficient assets to obtain a star, the transaction technology prevents us from doing so. This means that (as per my earlier post) we are left with trading away each of our "little" pieces for other little pieces like non-elite prospects.
 
All of the proposed moves discussed in the article seem to me unlikely to make the Twins better in 2019 and beyond. We are shuffling off little pieces we don't need for someone else's little pieces they don't need. Under a monetary system, we could sell multiple resources that have higher value to others than to us and pool the proceeds to buy a difference-maker.


I take your point, but would you really trust the Pohlad’s to turn around and use the accumulated monies? Perhaps a better baseball historian than I can recall Charlie Findlay’s great sell off.

And, I believe one can trade a player for cash.

#48 Mike Sixel

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 01:53 PM

 

I take your point, but would you really trust the Pohlad’s to turn around and use the accumulated monies? Perhaps a better baseball historian than I can recall Charlie Findlay’s great sell off.

And, I believe one can trade a player for cash.

 

Not straight up, but you can sort of do this, like the Twins just did with Hughes. They sold him and a draft pick for money, basically......The Marlins (depending on how you feel about the prospects they got back) did that with Stanton also.

 

So, you could trade existing contracts and minor league players, for minor league players. That essentially frees up money to be spent (or pocketed). That said, the league will likely nix deals that go too far that way.

There's always next year, or the next, or maybe by the time I'm Chief's age, I guess....


#49 twins_89

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 02:00 PM

Unless the Twins get a better offer for Dozier than is likely, I suspect the best course would be to keep him. If Dozier has a huge second half like in previous years, he might get back to a point where the qualifying offer makes sense which is probably the best possible outcome at this point. 

 

As for the rest of the trade options, I'd keep Odorizzi, Gibson, and Escobar (with the intent of extending a qualifying offer). I'd look to trade Lynn, Rodney, Morrison (more likely to be waived), and Duke.

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#50 Darius

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 02:01 PM

Nobody on the current active 25 man should be left off of this list, aside from Berrios.

Some I'd pull the trigger in faster than others. Dozier, Morrison, Lynn, Rodney, Duke, and Reed I'd take just about anything for.

Guys like Gibson and Escobar I'd need to get a nice return.

I'm still hoping Dozier, Morrison, and Lynn go a bit of a streak over the next couple weeks to entice some palatable offers. Reed could potentially fetch a nice piece. Santana could be a waiver guy in August if e comes back.

They could potentially turn in a pretty nice haul. They won't be getting any top 50 prospects, but they could add some nice peices to the system.

Edited by Darius, 06 July 2018 - 02:02 PM.


#51 TheLeviathan

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 02:04 PM

 

In my view this team needs to be taking more high-reward type risks. I mean if Gibson can bring back a pretty dang good haul now I'm fine with a July deal, but if we're talking about a Stephen Gonsalves type return, eh, I don't think your risking much by waiting. 90% of the board was fine passing on Jose De Leon when Dozier was peaking as well. 

 

But again, I'm only trading Gibson assuming this team isn't going to be a legit contending next year. My first preference is they make the changes needed to do so.

 

We rarely know what is actually out there.Sometimes taking an offer that is less than what you hoped is still better than getting nothing.

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#52 Mike Sixel

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 02:17 PM

 

Unless the Twins get a better offer for Dozier than is likely, I suspect the best course would be to keep him. If Dozier has a huge second half like in previous years, he might get back to a point where the qualifying offer makes sense which is probably the best possible outcome at this point. 

 

As for the rest of the trade options, I'd keep Odorizzi, Gibson, and Escobar (with the intent of extending a qualifying offer). I'd look to trade Lynn, Rodney, Morrison (more likely to be waived), and Duke.

 

I have zero interest in taking the chance he accepts the QO....zero.

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There's always next year, or the next, or maybe by the time I'm Chief's age, I guess....


#53 yarnivek1972

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 03:09 PM

I have zero interest in taking the chance he accepts the QO....zero.


Even if it means getting a lesser than that prospect in return for him now? I thinl the chances of Dozier accepting it are slim to none. He has a better chance convincing other teams that 2018 was an abberation due to being on a bad team than he does coming back, risk having another subpar year or getting hurt and being a FA another year older.

Falvey and Levine are all about analytics and numbers, supposedly. I think the numbers say roll the dice that he won't accept.

#54 TheLeviathan

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 03:29 PM

We are tossing around QO for Escobar and Dozier, I don't think 17M would be required for either player in order to keep them on a short term basis.

 

Moustakas and others are a good example of that IMO.

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#55 Mike Sixel

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 04:07 PM

Even if it means getting a lesser than that prospect in return for him now? I thinl the chances of Dozier accepting it are slim to none. He has a better chance convincing other teams that 2018 was an abberation due to being on a bad team than he does coming back, risk having another subpar year or getting hurt and being a FA another year older.

Falvey and Levine are all about analytics and numbers, supposedly. I think the numbers say roll the dice that he won't accept.


Correct. I have no interest in him accepting, and I think he does not likely than not.

There's always next year, or the next, or maybe by the time I'm Chief's age, I guess....


#56 yarnivek1972

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 04:15 PM

Correct. I have no interest in him accepting, and I think he does not likely than not.


I'm not trying to be a jerk here, but I legitimately don't understand this statement.

#57 nicksaviking

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 04:24 PM

We rarely know what is actually out there. Sometimes taking an offer that is less than what you hoped is still better than getting nothing.

We all get how this works, trades are an unpredictable endeavor. However, this team should be moving at least a half dozen players this summer most of which will bring back returns ranges from "OK, I can live with that" to "Not another Cash Considerations or a PTBNL!!!". Gibson's the only one with potential to increase his value to something substantial.

Unless they do nothing they should be flooded with more organizational filler than they can handle. They wouldn't be risking much to roll the dice that Gibson doesn't blow out his arm in the next three months.

#58 Vanimal46

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 04:45 PM

We are tossing around QO for Escobar and Dozier, I don't think 17M would be required for either player in order to keep them on a short term basis.

Moustakas and others are a good example of that IMO.


After last offseason it's certainly possible agents adjust their method and advise players to accept the QO.

#59 old nurse

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 04:50 PM

 

I don't really disagree with you (though don't really agree either :)), but the benefit is that you free up a spot for a younger player to come up and play nearly every day and get his feet wet for next season.I think that experience is very valuable to a player.

What players have ever benefited from the late season call up and who is the equivalentplayer now in Rochester


#60 Mike Sixel

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Posted 06 July 2018 - 04:51 PM

 

I'm not trying to be a jerk here, but I legitimately don't understand this statement.

 there is an extra not in there.....which should be a "more"....sigh. 

 

I think he accepts the QO, and I'd hate to pay him 17MM next year.

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There's always next year, or the next, or maybe by the time I'm Chief's age, I guess....




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