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Bryce Harper and Manny Machado

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#41 Vanimal46

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Posted 18 July 2018 - 07:42 AM

Sounds like 5 prospects are going to the Orioles so the Dodgers can get Machado... will the Dodgers have enough money to offer him a big deal at the end of the year? It sounds like a big risk to get just 2.5 months of Machado for those prospects... depending on their caliber.


They'll need to shed salary (like Forsythe) to stay under the luxury tax threshold. I see this as them regretting not doing enough to win it all last season.

#42 Shaitan

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Posted 18 July 2018 - 08:08 AM

I think modern contracts are about a player's age as much as they're about performance. Both players will get paid ridiculous amounts.

 

I'm curious what happens with player options, which seems to be the new trend in long-term deals.

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#43 Mike Sixel

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Posted 18 July 2018 - 08:35 AM

None of those three names is listed in FG updated top 131....

There's always next year, or the next, or maybe by the time I'm Chief's age, I guess....


#44 spycake

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Posted 18 July 2018 - 10:35 AM

 

None of those three names is listed in FG updated top 131....

Diaz has snuck onto the updated MLB top 100 list, at #84.

 

Sickels had Diaz at 170 preseason, and estimated May in the low 200's if his list went that far. (While acknowledging the order doesn't really matter past 100.)


#45 spycake

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Posted 18 July 2018 - 10:37 AM

 

They'll need to shed salary (like Forsythe) to stay under the luxury tax threshold.

Actually, per MLBTR, the Dodgers can add Machado and stay under the tax.

 

But they might want to unload Forsythe anyway, just for the roster spot.


#46 nicksaviking

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Posted 18 July 2018 - 11:39 AM

 

Diaz has snuck onto the updated MLB top 100 list, at #84.

 

Sickels had Diaz at 170 preseason, and estimated May in the low 200's if his list went that far. (While acknowledging the order doesn't really matter past 100.)

 

Kirilloff and Graterol are just sneaking into the bottom of these lists now too. If the Twins traded those two for 2 and a half months of Machado we'd have some wildly different reactions going on here.

 

I don't think it's about the rankings as much as it's about the helium at this point. I mean Gonsalves is still ranked 22 spots higher than Graterol on MLB's list. Maybe I'm on an island on this one, but I hand over Gonsalves long before I hand over Graterol. Looking at how the other Dodgers top prospects have performed this year, Diaz and May look really good.

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#47 Vanimal46

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Posted 18 July 2018 - 11:42 AM

Kirilloff and Graterol are just sneaking into the bottom of these lists now too. If the Twins traded those two for 2 and a half months of Machado we'd have some wildly different reactions going on here.

I don't think it's about the rankings as much as it's about the helium at this point. I mean Gonsalves is still ranked 22 spots higher than Graterol on MLB's list. Maybe I'm on an island on this one, but I hand over Gonsalves long before I hand over Graterol. Looking at how the other Dodgers top prospects have performed this year, Diaz and May look really good.


Isn't MLB.com's methodology to value prospects who are close to MLB ready more than lower level prospects? I could be way off base.
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#48 ChrisKnutson

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Posted 18 July 2018 - 01:15 PM

I think deep down we all know there’s a zero percent chance that Machado/Harper even considers coming to Minnesota. Unless Toronto offers him a QO, maybe the FO should consider taking a chance on Donaldson, who’s capable of outhitting Machado and Harper, if healthy.

#49 Danchat

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Posted 18 July 2018 - 05:56 PM

 

6:17pm: Diaz is indeed headed to the Orioles in the deal, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Baltimore will also receive minor-league right-handers Dean Kremer and Zach Pop, along with infielders Rylan Bannon and Breyvic Valera.

 

Dustin May is not a part of the deal, it turns out.

Edited by Danchat, 18 July 2018 - 05:57 PM.


#50 TheLeviathan

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Posted 18 July 2018 - 06:03 PM

Seems like a soft return for Machado.That's a bit discouraging.

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#51 Mike Sixel

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Posted 18 July 2018 - 06:08 PM

Five prospects.....that's a lot of spaghetti to throw against the wall....

rankings are in the LAD system, beginning of year:

 

Diaz was number 11 on FG at the beginning of the year, but is an LF with offense that would make most teams look good so far this year.

 

wow, none of the others were in FG rankings for the Dodgers to start the year.

 

That seems light, unless some of these have really improved their stock.

 

edit:

 

comments from Eric L on Twitter:

 

Diaz: good everyday corner OF

Kremer...backend starter with RP floor

Bannon...bench bat, utility guy 

Pop.....RP only

Valera.....utility type

 

So, if they get a starting OF and backend starter, that's a lot....

Edited by Mike Sixel, 18 July 2018 - 06:13 PM.

There's always next year, or the next, or maybe by the time I'm Chief's age, I guess....


#52 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 18 July 2018 - 06:54 PM

Five prospects.....that's a lot of spaghetti to throw against the wall....
rankings are in the LAD system, beginning of year:

Diaz was number 11 on FG at the beginning of the year, but is an LF with offense that would make most teams look good so far this year.

wow, none of the others were in FG rankings for the Dodgers to start the year.

That seems light, unless some of these have really improved their stock.

edit:

comments from Eric L on Twitter:

Diaz: good everyday corner OF
Kremer...backend starter with RP floor
Bannon...bench bat, utility guy
Pop.....RP only
Valera.....utility type

So, if they get a starting OF and backend starter, that's a lot....


Rough equivalent from the Twins system?
I'll say:
Kiriloff
Stewart
Bechtold
Miranda
Jay

#53 Mike Sixel

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Posted 18 July 2018 - 07:17 PM

 

Rough equivalent from the Twins system?
I'll say:
Kiriloff
Stewart
Bechtold
Miranda
Jay

 

Kiriiloff is probably higher rated, but Diaz is doing very well in AA, so he has more certainty, I'd guess. But yes, that's about the same. The SP might be more probable than Stewart, I'd say more like Mejia or Gonsalves (though I know others think more of Gonsalves high side than that....).

 

but, ya. I'd agree on that.

There's always next year, or the next, or maybe by the time I'm Chief's age, I guess....


#54 Mike Sixel

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Posted 19 July 2018 - 08:51 AM

https://www.fangraph...-manny-machado/

 

The OF sounds more like between Wade and Kiriloff....unless his power kicks in. But with more certainty of floor at this point than Kiriloff....

There's always next year, or the next, or maybe by the time I'm Chief's age, I guess....


#55 USAFChief

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Posted 19 July 2018 - 01:03 PM

Pretty terrible return for Manny Machado, IYAM.

A possible corner outfielder without much power, and filler.

Cutting my carbs...with a pizza slicer.


#56 spycake

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Posted 19 July 2018 - 01:19 PM

I've heard it likened to the Darvish trade return from last year.

I know some here have criticized the Dodgers for not paying the price for Dozier, but who can really blame them when they've consistently been able to deal for other talent so cheaply?

Edited by spycake, 19 July 2018 - 01:29 PM.

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#57 Mike Sixel

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Posted 19 July 2018 - 01:22 PM

From what I've read, many consider the package much better than the Darvish one....

 

I'm not sure what people expected for a 2.5 month rental......

 

Likely back end starter----with no MLB experience, so lots of control

Likely league average corner OF in AA-----no MLB experience, so lots of control

three flyer/utility types.

 

What do people expect for a pure rental?

There's always next year, or the next, or maybe by the time I'm Chief's age, I guess....


#58 spycake

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Posted 19 July 2018 - 01:34 PM

Aroldis Chapman fetched Gleyber Torres as a pure rental. But that is probably the outlier. Cespedes got Michael Fulmer, who was ranked around #50.

Considering Machado is getting some hype as one of the biggest pending FA ever, there was maybe some expectation that he could get that kind of haul.

#59 Mike Sixel

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Posted 19 July 2018 - 01:57 PM

 

Aroldis Chapman fetched Gleyber Torres as a pure rental. But that is probably the outlier. Cespedes got Michael Fulmer, who was ranked around #50.

Considering Machado is getting some hype as one of the biggest pending FA ever, there was maybe some expectation that he could get that kind of haul.

 

Maybe they wanted more than 1 player back......but sure, I can see where people might think that. clearly Chapman was an overpay. 

There's always next year, or the next, or maybe by the time I'm Chief's age, I guess....


#60 Vanimal46

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Posted 19 July 2018 - 02:05 PM

Aroldis Chapman fetched Gleyber Torres as a pure rental. But that is probably the outlier. Cespedes got Michael Fulmer, who was ranked around #50.

Considering Machado is getting some hype as one of the biggest pending FA ever, there was maybe some expectation that he could get that kind of haul.


Over the last 2 years at least, rental prices are suppressed. Detroit got very little for JD Martinez who put up MVP numbers in the 2nd half for Arizona.

As more FOs become analytically saavy, we'll see even less overpays for rental players.
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