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Twins 2018 Midseason Report - Where Did All the Wins Go? (p2/2)

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#21 ashburyjohn

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Posted 05 July 2018 - 08:09 AM

To explain the -7.5....I wonder what run sequencing tells on that story.It seems to me that we have put up a lot of offensive numbers in games that were already lopsided.

This kind of thing happens to, or against, all teams from season to season.

 

The Twins are scoring 4.24 runs a game. There are 10 MLB teams below us; average is 4.40.

 

The Twins' cumulative OPS is .705. There are only 7 teams below us; average is .724. If anything, we may have scored a few more runs than we "should" have.

 

You could break down the OPS components, and see similar stories across the board. We're just a weak hitting team.

 

The Twins are giving up 4.70 runs a game. There are only 9 MLB teams worse than this; average is 4.40, as above.

 

The Twins' OPS against is .752. There are 8 teams worse. Unearned runs and FIP neither point to an excuse for the rate of runs scored against us.

 

Likewise, the component numbers are consistent. Despite the improvements compared to last year, we're still a weak pitching team.

 

The pythagorean winning pct would have us at 2 wins higher than our 35-47 record. But pythag looks at runs scored, and as I pointed out, we may have actually scored a few due to good sequencing. We're just a weak team, and if bad sequencing has played a role, it's a small one. You could look for a pattern but I doubt you'll find one that's different from other weak teams; we get shut down by pitchers having a good day, and feast on some guys who are scuffling too.

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#22 TheLeviathan

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Posted 05 July 2018 - 08:16 AM

 

The pythagorean winning pct would have us at 2 wins higher than our 35-47 record. But pythag looks at runs scored, and as I pointed out, we may have actually scored a few due to good sequencing. We're just a weak team, and if bad sequencing has played a role, it's a small one. You could look for a pattern but I doubt you'll find one that's different from other weak teams; we get shut down by pitchers having a good day, and feast on some guys who are scuffling too.

 

I don't disagree with anything you posted in any way, but I remember from a few years back when we had that red hot May, that people were able to pull up some sequencing numbers to show just how lucky we had been in that stretch.I was more or less curious what picture those stats show.


#23 TheLeviathan

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Posted 05 July 2018 - 08:20 AM

 

That's not quite true, though.He struggled in his first 15 games last year which hurt his overall numbers but he really only had that and one other period where he struggled.Opening day to April 20, he hit .082/.135/.122 and he hit pretty bad in June. But the other two thirds of the season he always posted an OBP over .333. In fact, if you break down his season into 15 game periods, he has three that were bad (Early April and June) and the rest he was more or less a .360 OBP guy.

 

OPS by Month:

 

Number of Months with an OPS below .700: 10

 

Number of Months between .700-800: 2

 

Number of Months above .800: 3

 

Sorry, but the numbers just don't support your depiction of his hitting.

 

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#24 gunnarthor

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Posted 05 July 2018 - 08:43 AM

 

OPS by Month:

 

Number of Months with an OPS below .700: 10

 

Number of Months between .700-800: 2

 

Number of Months above .800: 3

 

Sorry, but the numbers just don't support your depiction of his hitting.

His slg was low but his OBP, other than his first 15 games and June, was around .360. 

April 21-May 31 - .267/.365/.367

He struggled most of June

July through end of the season - .309/.358/.538. And if you want to break that period down into 15 game periods you'll see it wasn't just one hot period. He was pretty consistent.

 

OBP by 15 game periods

1 - .082 (His start was so bad that it took nearly the entire season to adjust the numbers)

2 - .358 

3 - .362

4 - .255 (Early June)

5 - .275 (Late June)

6 - .367 

7 - .400

8 - .333

9 - .371 (a few more than 15 games to wrap up the year)

 

Again, not sure what Buxton's problem is. Pretty sure injuries aren't helping but he's dominated every level of the minors. Wowed every scout that saw him. Has all the talent in the world and he has been able to dominate at the ML level as well. Our pessimism at this years team is truly deserved but I'm still pretty sure that Buxton will make a few all-star teams for us before some other team signs him away from us.

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#25 yarnivek1972

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Posted 05 July 2018 - 09:05 AM

Buxton’s “domination” at the MLB level has been pretty exclusively in September. In other words, playing against a lot of September call ups.

You are also cherry picking and SSS numbers to fit your narrative.

Big picture: In well over 1000 PA at the MLB level Buxton has a .285 OBP, .672 OPS and an OPS+ of 80.

Not good by any definition. Anyone can look good in a 15 game stretch.

#26 jimmer

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Posted 05 July 2018 - 09:13 AM

Hmmm, Buxton's best month last year was August, not September.And with more playoff spots available, the idea that teams bring up a bunch of September callups to have a look at them, instead of playing their best to try and make the playoffs, isn't something really done so much anymore.Certainly not to the level they used to.Discounting September numbers would be a mistake.


#27 gunnarthor

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Posted 05 July 2018 - 09:44 AM

 

Buxton’s “domination” at the MLB level has been pretty exclusively in September. In other words, playing against a lot of September call ups.

You are also cherry picking and SSS numbers to fit your narrative.

Big picture: In well over 1000 PA at the MLB level Buxton has a .285 OBP, .672 OPS and an OPS+ of 80.

Not good by any definition. Anyone can look good in a 15 game stretch.

And 7 WAR. Basically, 3.7 WAR/162 games. 

 

I didn't post one 15 game stretch. I posted his obp over 9 stretches to show that his on-base numbers weren't inflated by one small stretch to pull up other periods. From July 1 to the end of last year, he was arguably the best player in the AL (with Trout injured during part of that period). He led the league in WAR and hit .310/.360/.540. It seems a bit unfair to say that that period either isn't dominate or shouldn't be counted as dominate b/c Sept call ups or SSS or whatever. 

 

And from April 20 to June 1st, he hit .267/.365/.367. Not MVP level that he displayed later that year but still good, especially the on-base numbers.

 

Obviously, something's wrong right now but the guy has a ton of talent and has shown it at every level. I don't know what the problem is and/or how to fix it but I think it's just a question of when he fixes it, not if. My guess - and it's just a guess - is that he'll be fine once he gets back into a regular routine and gets at-bats. 


#28 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 05 July 2018 - 09:47 AM

 

Hmmm, Buxton's best month last year was August, not September.And with more playoff spots available, the idea that teams bring up a bunch of September callups to have a look at them, instead of playing their best to try and make the playoffs, isn't something really done so much anymore.Certainly not to the level they used to.Discounting September numbers would be a mistake.

yeah, there will be some sub-standard competition. But there's still plenty of good competition in September. I wouldn't rely on people feasting on September only, but not ignore it either.

 

Buxton shouldn't be discounted at this point.


#29 TheLeviathan

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Posted 05 July 2018 - 09:54 AM

 

 

 

Obviously, something's wrong right now but the guy has a ton of talent and has shown it at every level. I don't know what the problem is and/or how to fix it but I think it's just a question of when he fixes it, not if. My guess - and it's just a guess - is that he'll be fine once he gets back into a regular routine and gets at-bats. 

 

I'm not giving up on him, but your characterization of his offense is just not factual.The majority of his WAR is defense and the majority of his at bats in the majors have been bad.And bad might be putting it lightly.

 

And injuries?Those have been an issue his entire minor league run also.That excuse just doesn't work.

 

I get being hopeful, but you are ignoring reality here too.Doesn't mean you cant hope, but let's not put lipstick on a pig.


#30 ashburyjohn

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Posted 05 July 2018 - 10:32 AM

I don't disagree with anything you posted in any way, but I remember from a few years back when we had that red hot May, that people were able to pull up some sequencing numbers to show just how lucky we had been in that stretch.I was more or less curious what picture those stats show.

I could be mis-remembering, but I think a similar analysis to what I did here also applied that time, only to a greater extent:

  • The team scored more runs than their OPS would have suggested;
  • The team gave up fewer runs than their OPS-against would have suggested;
  • The team won more games than their runs for-and-against would have suggested.

It was a perfect storm that month. I enjoyed the wins, and they were "in the bank" as far as contending for the post-season were concerned. But the warning signs were there, to not get used to it.

 

This time, the analysis doesn't suggest to me that things will get better on their own. They have to hit better. They have to pitch better (even better than they have improved, so far).

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#31 laloesch

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Posted 05 July 2018 - 10:44 AM

yeah, there will be some sub-standard competition. But there's still plenty of good competition in September. I wouldn't rely on people feasting on September only, but not ignore it either.

Buxton shouldn't be discounted at this point.

But he shouldn't be counted on either just like Sano. Either produce or not but at some point they (the Twins) are gonna have to make hard decisions and move on to Plan B.

Edited by laloesch, 05 July 2018 - 10:48 AM.

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#32 Vanimal46

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Posted 05 July 2018 - 10:55 AM

But he shouldn't be counted on either just like Sano. Either produce or not but at some point they (the Twins) are gonna have to make hard decisions and move on to Plan B.


Agreed. If they head into next year thinking Sano and Buxton are still going to develop into stars they're doing everyone a disservice.

2019 is a big year. My patience has run dry on both of them. Either they produce or the Twins need to move on.

#33 laloesch

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Posted 05 July 2018 - 11:09 AM

Agreed. If they head into next year thinking Sano and Buxton are still going to develop into stars they're doing everyone a disservice.
2019 is a big year. My patience has run dry on both of them. Either they produce or the Twins need to move on.

Yes, i am not giving up yet but the Twins can't afford another lost season (2019) from Sano and Buxton. Those two need to do some serious work between now and next spring. And here i thought the upcoming pitching prospects would be too late to help the young core (Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, Polanco, Gordon, etc.) before they reached free agency. Now that looks like it might not be the case.

Edited by laloesch, 05 July 2018 - 11:17 AM.


#34 mrmpls

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Posted 05 July 2018 - 12:03 PM

Very good post-- Thank You!


#35 OldTimeTwinkie

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Posted 05 July 2018 - 01:03 PM

last year Rowson fought for Buxton not to be sent down when he was struggling. he really believed in him and it payed off. How could he not do the same this year with both Sano and Buxton. why have him as a hitting coach then. something is wrong somewhere with this staff, front office.
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#36 spycake

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Posted 05 July 2018 - 01:14 PM

I don't disagree with anything you posted in any way, but I remember from a few years back when we had that red hot May, that people were able to pull up some sequencing numbers to show just how lucky we had been in that stretch. I was more or less curious what picture those stats show.

BaseRuns? They have us at 36-47 this season.

https://www.fangraph...sition=BaseRuns

Edited by spycake, 05 July 2018 - 01:14 PM.

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#37 gunnarthor

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Posted 05 July 2018 - 01:33 PM

 

last year Rowson fought for Buxton not to be sent down when he was struggling. he really believed in him and it payed off. How could he not do the same this year with both Sano and Buxton. why have him as a hitting coach then. something is wrong somewhere with this staff, front office.

Yeah, I'm not sure but it might have something to do with service time? I think if he stays down all year, the Twins get another year of control on him and the FO might be thinking along those lines at this point.


#38 Riverbrian

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Posted 05 July 2018 - 01:40 PM

Insurance - Get some

 

This organization has to stop working without a safety net. 

 

How many years in a row have we turned to Hicks and then Buxton only to have them struggle and then be forced to turn to Mastroianni types. 

 

My perspective on Buxton and my desperation and hopes toward Buxton changed, the very second I thought to myself, bring a decent 4th OF in case he fails. I don't worry about him nearly as much then. 

 

Buxton crumbling before our eyes is much worse because Grossman isn't a good insurance policy. I'm hoping this organization stops making the same mistake over and over again. 

 

Thinking to yourself, We got Buxton... We are covered. Is an example of the worst possible planning that I can imagine. 

 

Get Insurance and let Buxton develop like Hicks eventually did. Provide a safety net... BUT... this time... Don't trade him off when he finally starts to show something. 

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#39 spycake

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Posted 05 July 2018 - 02:08 PM

Yeah, I'm not sure but it might have something to do with service time? I think if he stays down all year, the Twins get another year of control on him and the FO might be thinking along those lines at this point.


Maybe, but they actually demoted Sano a couple days late for that. Not sure why they wouldn't try it with him too? Unless they think he will be back in September regardless.

Buxton is only 13 days shy of 3 full years service now too, so if they recall him even after the minor league seasons ends in September, he will make it to 3 years.

Crazy to think we may have only 3 years control left on those two guys.

#40 Riverbrian

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Posted 05 July 2018 - 06:13 PM

Maybe, but they actually demoted Sano a couple days late for that. Not sure why they wouldn't try it with him too? Unless they think he will be back in September regardless.

Buxton is only 13 days shy of 3 full years service now too, so if they recall him even after the minor league seasons ends in September, he will make it to 3 years.

Crazy to think we may have only 3 years control left on those two guys.


Yep... by the time he figures it out. Off to Free Agency he goes.

It’s a big reason why they don’t rush prospects up. You can end up eating a lot of years of control with the fuzzy end of the lollipop.

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