To explain the -7.5....I wonder what run sequencing tells on that story.It seems to me that we have put up a lot of offensive numbers in games that were already lopsided.
This kind of thing happens to, or against, all teams from season to season.
The Twins are scoring 4.24 runs a game. There are 10 MLB teams below us; average is 4.40.
The Twins' cumulative OPS is .705. There are only 7 teams below us; average is .724. If anything, we may have scored a few more runs than we "should" have.
You could break down the OPS components, and see similar stories across the board. We're just a weak hitting team.
The Twins are giving up 4.70 runs a game. There are only 9 MLB teams worse than this; average is 4.40, as above.
The Twins' OPS against is .752. There are 8 teams worse. Unearned runs and FIP neither point to an excuse for the rate of runs scored against us.
Likewise, the component numbers are consistent. Despite the improvements compared to last year, we're still a weak pitching team.
The pythagorean winning pct would have us at 2 wins higher than our 35-47 record. But pythag looks at runs scored, and as I pointed out, we may have actually scored a few due to good sequencing. We're just a weak team, and if bad sequencing has played a role, it's a small one. You could look for a pattern but I doubt you'll find one that's different from other weak teams; we get shut down by pitchers having a good day, and feast on some guys who are scuffling too.