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Article: CHW 8, MIN 4: South Side Slip

lance lynn ehire adrianza ryan pressly alan busenitz matt belisle
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#21 deanlambrecht

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 09:11 AM

Um, okay. Gene Glynn is our third base coach. And he seems to be particularly bad at it, so I cannot even begin to endorse bighat's notion that he should be interim manager.

 

Per bighat

 

"Time to clean house. I think Gene Glynn would be a nice interim manager for the rest of the season."

 

I don't know who Gene Glynn is but one more time...if Molitor remains as manager, that says all you need to know about the goals of the franchise. Those goals would not include winning baseball games. Even if firing a manager is only symbolic, it is a big part of big time (not just pro) sports and is a statement to players and fans that ownership is not happy. Not firing a manager like Molitor simply says, "What, us worry?"

 

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#22 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 09:22 AM

The Twins record by Month says it all:

 

April - 9-15

May-13-15

June - 12-11

 

Take away the bad April start and the team is 25-26. Absolutely positively average, mediocre, ordinary, pick your verb. The one I like is "forgettable" a synonym for average. 

 

Bill Parcells once said "you are what your record says you are". He was right then and he's right now. The Twins are average, mediocre, ordinary and, completely and entirely forgettable. 

 

I've long been in the camp of "it's early, plenty of season left, we can still come back in a bad division, etc.".I'm now officially out of that group.This season's over as far as contending is concerned. The rest of this year should be about focusing on making the team better so we can contend next year. 

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#23 jkcarew

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 11:04 AM

 

That is quite shocking.It's hard to believe, but I just read an article the other day about the league is on pace to have a higher strike out total than total hits for the first time in the game's history.That puts things in context pretty well I suppose.

Yep.Batting Averages are dead, including BA RISP.As bad as the Twins are...everyone else is just as bad (or worse).This is not a trend anymore.It's just the way the game is played now.The modern hitter doesn't try to 'hit the ball where it's pitched' and certainly doesn't have tools for any type of situational hitting.It's 'launch', walk, or K regardless of the game situation.This because the metrics prove the increased HR/XBH (and BB)...over thousands of at-bats...are indisputably worth the increased K's and lower BA.And this is how the player is developed.So, when a single...or even a ball in play...will win a game?...you need to pray for a home run or double off the wall.


#24 wsnydes

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 11:06 AM

 

Yep.Batting Averages are dead, including BA RISP.As bad as the Twins are...everyone else is just as bad (or worse).This is not a trend anymore.It's just the way the game is played now.The modern hitter doesn't try to 'hit the ball where it's pitched' and certainly doesn't have tools for any type of situational hitting.It's 'launch', walk, or K regardless of the game situation.This because the metrics prove the increased HR/XBH (and BB)...over thousands of at-bats...are indisputably worth the increased K's and lower BA.And this is how the player is developed.So, when a single...or even a ball in play...will win a game?...you need to pray for a home run or double off the wall.

Yup, the game has become pretty boring in that aspect.Even keeping score when at a game is boring because nothing happens.It's no wonder attendance is falling.

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#25 Tom Froemming

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 11:13 AM

 

Yep.Batting Averages are dead, including BA RISP.As bad as the Twins are...everyone else is just as bad (or worse).This is not a trend anymore.It's just the way the game is played now.The modern hitter doesn't try to 'hit the ball where it's pitched' and certainly doesn't have tools for any type of situational hitting.It's 'launch', walk, or K regardless of the game situation.This because the metrics prove the increased HR/XBH (and BB)...over thousands of at-bats...are indisputably worth the increased K's and lower BA.And this is how the player is developed.So, when a single...or even a ball in play...will win a game?...you need to pray for a home run or double off the wall.

AL league average batting average per Baseball-Reference over the past 100 years in 25-year increments:

 

2018 .246

1993 .267

1968 .230

1943 .249

1918 .254

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#26 jkcarew

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 11:16 AM

 

Yup, the game has become pretty boring in that aspect.Even keeping score when at a game is boring because nothing happens.It's no wonder attendance is falling.

I do think this is a problem...an 'unintended' consequence, if you will, of the sabermetric revolution...although other factors probably in play, as well.

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#27 Tom Froemming

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 11:25 AM

 

AL league average batting average per Baseball-Reference over the past 100 years in 25-year increments:

 

2018 .246

1993 .267

1968 .230

1943 .249

1918 .254

I understand this is a pretty simplistic approach to look at it from, and doesn't really take into account the arrival of the DH. If you want a bigger sample, how about the biggest sample?

 

Per B-Ref, MLB hitters are 3,880,930-for-14,837,452 all-time. That's a .262 average. That may seem like a big difference, .262 to .246, but in reality it's only 1.6 percent.

 

For 2018 AL hitters to get up to that .262 mark, they would have needed to rack up 633 more hits than they have so far. That may seem like a lot, but AL teams have combined to play 1,185 games this season. 

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#28 spycake

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 11:34 AM

 

AL league average batting average per Baseball-Reference over the past 100 years in 25-year increments:

 

2018 .246

1993 .267

1968 .230

1943 .249

1918 .254

Any increment that selects 1968 is going to be problematic, as that's the all-time low.


#29 spycake

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 11:36 AM

Strikeouts are WAY up. Without a corresponding rise in BABIP, that's going to lower batting averages. (And BABIP is actually down this year too, curious about that.)

 

I think it's fair to be concerned about the rise in strikeouts.


#30 spycake

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 11:39 AM

 

I understand this is a pretty simplistic approach to look at it from, and doesn't really take into account the arrival of the DH. 

I recommend using Fangraphs and selecting "NP" (non-pitchers) as the position for a better comparison.

 

Although you have to export to a spreadsheet to do your own totals for multiple years.


#31 djvang

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 11:53 AM

Lynn's demeanor on the mound reminds me of Ricky Nolasco. He always looks irritated and crabby. 


#32 USAFChief

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 12:02 PM

I understand this is a pretty simplistic approach to look at it from, and doesn't really take into account the arrival of the DH. If you want a bigger sample, how about the biggest sample?
 
Per B-Ref, MLB hitters are 3,880,930-for-14,837,452 all-time. That's a .262 average. That may seem like a big difference, .262 to .246, but in reality it's only 1.6 percent.
 
For 2018 AL hitters to get up to that .262 mark, they would have needed to rack up 633 more hits than they have so far. That may seem like a lot, but AL teams have combined to play 1,185 games this season.


It might be 1.6 percent purely per the math, but that’s really not the way to look at it.

On a scale where .200 is utter failure, and .350 extreme success, 16 points from .262 to .246 is fairly significant, IMO.
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#33 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 12:02 PM

Does anyone have any opinion on whether Lynn should have stayed in in the 6th?
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#34 USAFChief

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 12:05 PM

Does anyone have any opinion on whether Lynn should have stayed in in the 6th?


I complain about Molitor leaving his starters in too long a lot, but in this case I had no complaint.

And only one of the three hits he gave up in the 6th should have been a hit.

Fair to say Lynn is not a gold glove candidate though.
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#35 alarp33

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 12:08 PM

 

(And BABIP is actually down this year too, curious about that.)

 

 

 

Shifts I assume?

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#36 Tom Froemming

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 12:09 PM

 

It might be 1.6 percent purely per the math, but that’s really not the way to look at it.

On a scale where .200 is utter failure, and .350 extreme success, 16 points from .262 to .246 is fairly significant, IMO.

Over 600 at bats, your .262 hitter only gets about 10 more hits than your .246 hitter. That's a difference, but I wouldn't call it significant. 

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#37 USAFChief

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 12:21 PM

Over 600 at bats, your .262 hitter only gets about 10 more hits than your .246 hitter. That's a difference, but I wouldn't call it significant.


But your quote considered “MLB hitters all time.”

I think a 16 pt BA drop is a pretty big thing. That’s 10 more hits for every hitter, not just one. Or 10 fewer to be more accurate.

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#38 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 12:30 PM

I complain about Molitor leaving his starters in too long a lot, but in this case I had no complaint.
And only one of the three hits he gave up in the 6th should have been a hit.
Fair to say Lynn is not a gold glove candidate though.

I didn't see the inning, so no opinion.

In general I am the opposite. Would rather see a starter clean up his own mess.
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#39 jkcarew

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 01:20 PM

 

AL league average batting average per Baseball-Reference over the past 100 years in 25-year increments:

 

2018 .246

1993 .267

1968 .230

1943 .249

1918 .254

So, currently we're 8 points below the dead-ball era.And we're lower than every era except for the era that resulted in the mound being lowered.(The current game does remind me of 1960's baseball to a degree.)But having said that, this data makes it look like the 70's and 80's were the aberration rather than the norm. 

 

Of course, the huge difference is in how the .246 (or .230) BA is achieved.In the past it was achieved with a whole lot of ball-in-play guys...and a healthy minority of strike-out/power guys.Now it's achieved with considerably less diversity in approaches skill/sets.Almost everyone is (or is trying to be) the same player offensively.And that player hasn't been developed to put the ball in play or spray the ball all over the field.He's been trained to 'launch' or walk...and accept the resulting K%.We know why.And it's probably true to say that, regardless of what the modern formula dictated, the shrinking diversity of approaches/skills-sets was going to an inevitable result of the evolution of how kids grow up today and are trained. They don't so much 'play' baseball as much as they are 'trained' at it.Ironically, this is more true the more talented the kid.


#40 yarnivek1972

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 01:23 PM

Baseball tends to be cyclical. Someone will have success with a contact and baserunning approach and the rest of the league will try to copy it.

But, I absolutely think the current game where the “3 true outcome” types are valued is ridiculously boring.

Homeruns are boring. The most exciting play in baseball? Triple IMO. Anytime there is a play at the plate also. No, I am not sorry they banned violent collisions either. The play at the plate is still exciting without seeing some guy get his head knocked off.



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