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Article: The Rise and Fall of Miguel Sano

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#21 spycake

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 08:25 AM

 

Mike - lets not forget that our #1 SP coming into the season has thrown ZERO innings and our starting catcher will miss most of the season...

If we had Ervin Santana, that pretty much would have bumped Romero, who's been passable. If you trust the ZiPS projection for Ervin, maybe a difference of 1.5 wins so far?

 

Castro was replacement level before his injury. His replacements have been right around replacement level too. He was worth ~2 WAR last year, so maybe a win if you buy that as his true talent level? Hard to see too much tangible difference in intangibles yet either -- the pitching has improved overall, despite the absence of Ervin.

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#22 jkcarew

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 09:05 AM

With the 2018 season gone, I can agree with the Twins taking these drastic steps to attempt to reclaim an asset.At this point, I don't think the Twins should be in a hurry at all.Whatever those things are that are broken with Miguel, take the time to attempt a rebuild from the ground up with the remainder of this season (and the upcoming off-season).

 

Meanwhile, I wouldn't mind a similar approach with Buxton at this point.Perhaps his challenges are narrower in scope than are Sano's.But there's no value in having a center fielder of any defensively ability that hits like a pitcher.And so far, he hasn't come close to handling the AAA pitching he's seeing.Hopefully that changes.But if July 9 comes around and it hasn't changed, it will be interesting to see the decision.

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#23 Parker Hageman

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 09:07 AM

I have wondered what effect the Home Run Derby has on hitters.

 

 

None.

 

https://www.mlb.com/...yth/c-240929868

 

https://fivethirtyei...run-derby-myth/

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#24 IaFan1

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 09:57 AM

I just don't understand what happens in this organization. We have 3 guys (Sano, Buxton, Kepler) that were hyped to no end as the cornerstones of a long competitive stretch.Other organizations that had hyped players in the same time frame, like the Cubs, Nationals, Astros and Dodgers, had their guys come up and take off. In Minnesota we have 3 busts. Thank goodness for Berrios and Rosario. Let's be honest here. Sano has become Delmon Young, Buxton just can't hit period and the regression of Kepler is maddening.If the next wave of Kiriloff, Lewis and Rooker all bust, then there is something inherently wrong inside this organization.

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#25 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 10:12 AM

The whole thing is maddening and it's not just Sano. Buxton is flailing away. Almost as importantly, Kepler is regressing, not getting better. That doesn't get a lot of press for some reason, but it's true - Kepler is not helping the team win at the MLB level, he is holding the team back. He looks like he needs to rejoin his OF mate Buxton in AAA for awhile and Cave needs to be given a fair shot to see if he can be a regular at the MLB level and take Kepler's job.What?We have nobody else in AAA to replace Kepler on the roster?Wow.  

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#26 Mike Sixel

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 10:14 AM

I might demote Kepler also at this point. Promote Wade and give him and Cave shots.... See what you have.

This whole thing is a real downer.
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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#27 alarp33

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 10:20 AM

 

I just don't understand what happens in this organization. We have 3 guys (Sano, Buxton, Kepler) that were hyped to no end as the cornerstones of a long competitive stretch.Other organizations that had hyped players in the same time frame, like the Cubs, Nationals, Astros and Dodgers, had their guys come up and take off. In Minnesota we have 3 busts. Thank goodness for Berrios and Rosario. Let's be honest here. Sano has become Delmon Young, Buxton just can't hit period and the regression of Kepler is maddening.If the next wave of Kiriloff, Lewis and Rooker all bust, then there is something inherently wrong inside this organization.

 

Kepler does not belong with Sano/Buxton on hype level. It is so so early to call Kepler a bust. He was always projected to be a solid to above avg regular.Which I still think he is, minus the current brutal slump he's in

 

Rooker does not belong with Lewis / Kiriloff. 

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#28 spycake

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 10:23 AM

 

Almost as importantly, Kepler is regressing, not getting better. That doesn't get a lot of press for some reason, but it's true - Kepler is not helping the team win at the MLB level, he is holding the team back.

I wouldn't say Kepler is regressing, although I agree he's not getting better. His OPS+, wRC+, and WAR are virtually identical to what he produced in 2016-2017. He's thoroughly an average performer for the 3rd consecutive season, which is helping the MLB team a bit but not a lot. (The shape of his offense has changed a smidge this year -- walk rate up, K rate down, BABIP down -- but not enough to be particularly encouraging.)

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#29 ewen21

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 10:55 AM

THere was a lot of blowback about "questioning his character" when people made the observation that Sano was out of shape a few months ago.Can that please stop?YOu don't get out of shape working hard and being a go-getter.I wasn't watching him this winter, but I will bet he lived a little too high on the hog this past winter and who can blame him?He grew up with nothing and now he's enjoying the spoils of a life in the major leagues.At least half of this is on the Twins.

 

Remember when he got suspended for the home run trot back when he was in New Britain?I always thought it was more about other things than him taking his time rounding the bases after a home run.The Twins went out of their way to make a point to him for "not respecting the game" as an indirect way to send a message to him about other areas of his game.Heaven forbid they call him out for his work ethic, or lack of a decent one. 

 

What is wrong with saying the kid needs to refocus and work harder?What is wrong with telling the kid that he lost his way?I was in my early 20s once and I needed some people to get in my face in order to keep me on the path.No shame in that.

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#30 jctwins

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 10:56 AM

Does this mean those of us that were suggesting Sano's efforts were less than disarable a few weeks ago can go back to doing so without getting warning messages from mods? 

 

Not really sarcasm.

 

 

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#31 Mike Sixel

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 11:07 AM

I take it back, I don't think I'm ready to demote Kepler. But I am ready to cut Grossman, and see what Wade can do. Or Morrison, either one, or both. Neither is part of the future.
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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#32 ewen21

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 11:21 AM

 

Does this mean those of us that were suggesting Sano's efforts were less than disarable a few weeks ago can go back to doing so without getting warning messages from mods? 

 

Not really sarcasm.

In my 52 years on this Earth I have been in and out of shape. When I was in shape I looked like I was in shape. Why? Because I put in the work with diet and exercise.
When I was out of shape I looked like I was out of shape. Why? Because I got lazy in the area of diet and exercise and I in every case I readily admitted it to anyone when I got on the topic.

 

I am sure there are a lot of people like me here who have been through this and understand that forgetting about conditioning and diet affects how we feel, our appearance and what we are capable of doing physically (in Sano's case it probably affects his swing mechanics, attitude and overall ability). If this calls into question his character then so be it.He has five to six months of offseason and he is a 25 year old professional athlete.IN this day and age you have to keep up with your peers, many of whom work out and get in amazing shape during the offseason.

This is a fixable thing.He can change.,

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#33 Jerr

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 11:22 AM

 

Does this mean those of us that were suggesting Sano's efforts were less than disarable a few weeks ago can go back to doing so without getting warning messages from mods? 

 

Not really sarcasm.

I was one and it was months ago, nice to see some others come around. The Twins did with Sano exactly what they should have earlier. I just hope, it's not too late

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#34 ewen21

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 11:26 AM

 

I might demote Kepler also at this point. Promote Wade and give him and Cave shots.... See what you have.

This whole thing is a real downer.

I would be down with that if Wade actually deserved a shot.He isn't remotely in that area as of today

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#35 gocgo

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 11:29 AM

Cave is the replacement for Grossman.He can play all 3 outfield positions addequately.Grossman can not.

 

Regarding Sano, when the coach stops yelling at you, that's when you are in trouble.It means he's given up on you.The fact that we sent Sano down to A ball should be a very loud scream to him, but it means we haven't given up on him.He will come back stronger or he will not be back.No point in trading him, the return would not outweigh the potential.

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#36 ewen21

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 11:31 AM

 

I was one and it was months ago, nice to see some others come around. The Twins did with Sano exactly what they should have earlier. I just hope, it's not too late

 

Anyone with two eyes and one serving of experience in life could have discerned this problem.The idea that this issue had nothing to do with his hitting was a big time assumption.There was an assumption that his conditioning was not the issue, but rather it was mechanics.Well let me tell you, conditioning effects one's attitude and ability to execute the hitting mechanics necessary to be successful.When we are talking about the hardest thing to do in sports it could mean only two clicks on the dial off kilter. To shut down conditioning as a possible root cause would be ignorant.The Twins commented on this right away and they are belatedly doing something about it.Oh well

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#37 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 11:56 AM

 

I take it back, I don't think I'm ready to demote Kepler. But I am ready to cut Grossman, and see what Wade can do. Or Morrison, either one, or both. Neither is part of the future.

I agree on Morrison and Grossman.They should go first. I'm concerned d that keeping Kepler up now may retard his development because he is getting used by MLB pitching. He's .175/.267/.301 in the last 30 games so we're beyond the small sample size problem. He just isn't getting any better and I would still argue that he's regressing. There's nothing that's happening recently that suggest he's going to come out of this funk. 

 

Let's cut to the real problem - replace any of these guys with who exactly?No one at AAA is doing that great except for Astudillo (replacement for Wilson?) and Ryan LaMarre who we've already seen. Promoting Gordon and/or Wade would have to be based on their AA showing.They both are having trouble at AAA.Granite looks over matched at AAA, and looked over matched with the Twins last year, so he's not a realistic option. Carter is 31 and not hitting and even Vargas isn't hitting in Rochester. 

 

Bottom line, I think we should send Kepler down because I think it would be good for HIM to work on things in a lower pressure environment, not because there's someone waiting in the wings that deserves a shot. I say we lose Motter when Polanco comes back and I'm 50/50 on replacing Morrison and Grossman with some combination of Astudillo, LaMarre, Wade, Vargas or Gordon. Frankly, all the options are pretty pathetic.  

Edited by LA VIkes Fan, 27 June 2018 - 11:58 AM.


#38 kusko_andy

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 11:57 AM

The fact that for a period of time Buxton and Sano were the #1 and #3 prospects in all of baseball, and that now #1 just can't hit Big League pitching and #3 just can't figure out how to be a pro is about the most maddening and unbelievable turn of events in what has been a long and mostly frustrating career as a Twins fan.

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#39 alarp33

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 12:02 PM

 

I agree on Morrison and Grossman.They should go first. I'm concerned d that keeping Kepler up now may retard his development because he is getting used by MLB pitching. He's .175/.267/.301 in the last 30 games so we're beyond the small sample size problem. He just isn't getting any better and I would still argue that he's regressing. There's nothing that's happening recently that suggest he's going to come out of this funk. 

 

Let's cut to the real problem - replace any of these guys with who exactly?No one at AAA is doing that great except for Astudillo (replacement for Wilson?) and Ryan LaMarre who we've already seen. Promoting Gordon and/or Wade would have to be based on their AA showing.They both are having trouble at AAA.Granite looks over matched at AAA, and looked over matched with the Twins last year, so he's not a realistic option. Carter is 31 and not hitting and even Vargas isn't hitting in Rochester. 

 

Bottom line, I think we should send Kepler down because I think it would be good for HIM to work on things in a lower pressure environment, not because there's someone waiting in the wings that deserves a shot. I say we lose Motter when Polanco comes back and I'm 50/50 on replacing Morrison and Grossman with some combination of Astudillo, LaMarre, Wade, Vargas or Gordon. Frankly, all the options are pretty pathetic.  

 

30 games is absolutely still a small sample size. Also in that 30 day period his K rate and BB rate are nearly perfectly in line with career averages, but his BABIP is around .100 points lower

Edited by alarp33, 27 June 2018 - 12:05 PM.

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#40 djvang

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Posted 27 June 2018 - 12:08 PM

Sano doesn't seem to care about his lack of performance or his weight. He's made enough money to go back to the DR and live like a king for the rest of his life. He seems satisfied with that. But the specter of David Ortiz hangs over him. Out-of-shape, oft-injured, under-performing guy gets dumped and comes back to haunt the team that dumped him. If the jolt of getting sent back to Class A doesn't change him maybe getting released or traded will.

 

Buxton on the other hand seems to care too much. Lack of performance eats him up. If only their attitudes could be merged.

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