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Article: Twins Daily Roundtable: Romero's Innings

fernando romero jose berrios max scherzer
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#21 jimbo92107

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 12:48 PM

I like Jeremy Nygaard's analysis best - go with a pitch limit, not a innings limit, assuming an average of 16 pitches per inning. 

 

Next, re-emphasize getting ahead early, get that first strike to get ahead in counts. That should help reduce pitches per inning. This is the time in Romero's career when he finds out what he can do with his heater and his slider, and keep working on the change, which could save him some pitches later in games and later in the season. 

 

Finally, try to get him to add and subtract with his fastball. He already does that some, but the more variability he achieves, the more he screws up a hitter's timing.

 

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#22 Brandon

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 12:54 PM

I agree with Nygard in that around 2500 pitches Romero should be closely watched. Maybe a 10 DL stint or maybe 4 or 5 starts in a row with an 80 pitch limit so his arm can have a breather, but if he has 190 innings going into the World Series....i think he can handle one more start.

#23 IndianaTwin

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 12:55 PM

Decisions like this are a blend of art and science. My momma always said, "We'll cross that bridge when we get to it." So I think you make a general plan and adapt as the circumstances call for it and as things play out. 

 

Odorizzi shows us that not every inning is equal, since he's been averaging 18.6 pitches per inning, so I like Jeremy's approach of looking at pitches thrown. And 2400-2500 seems about right for the year.

 

That leaves Romero in the neighborhood of 1250 pitches remaining. If you ballpark 90 pitches per start, that's around 14 more starts. So keep that in mind and see how things play out over the next month or so. Considerations in that are: 

 

  • Staying on the current 5-man rotation with no rainouts gives Romero five starts -- June 22 and 28 and July 3, 8 and 13 -- before the all-star break.
  • How's Santana doing? None of the current guys has really pitched himself out of the rotation. If Santana or May gets to the point of being ready, it only takes three starts by one of them (in a six-man rotation) to save a start before the break. Or two starts and a rainout, etc.
  • If that doesn't happen, move Romero to the back of the rotation coming out of the break, which essentially is the same as skipping a start.
  • If all five current guys are still healthy and pitching effectively when (if) Santana (or May) are ready, go ahead and go to a six-man rotation for a few times through the rotation and see how things go.
  • By that time, you also have a pretty good sense of whether you're buyers or sellers. If sellers, and everyone is healthy, Lynn's going to be a trade candidate.
  • And if sellers, that also means that it's pretty easy to shut down Romero when it seems appropriate based on fatigue and effectiveness.

In a best case scenario (the Twins are still in it and guys are healthy), I think Romero would be a good candidate for the bullpenning approach. I'd think about pairing him with Odorizzi, since Odorizzi seems to particularly struggle with the third time through the order. But to keep Romero on a regular preparation pattern, consider starting him and letting him go two innings. Often, that would bring Odorizzi into the game at the bottom of the order, so when he starts his third time through, he's starting with the 7, 8 or 9 hitter. Similarly, two innings of Romero and five of Odorizzi gets us to the eighth inning and very close to the FRE, so it (in theory) also provides a lighter day for the bullpen. 


#24 Platoon

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 01:17 PM

The problem with a 6 man rotation, of course, is that when you add a 6th starter, that roster spot comes from elsewhere. Either you have an even more overworked bullpen or a shorter bench.

That's a good point. I admit I had not considered that aspect. Duh! The easiest solution is to have Pressly pitch an extra game or two during the week. For Lords sake, I noticed there are weeks when he only appears in 5 or 6 games. :).
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#25 slash129

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 01:48 PM

The other problem with the 6-man rotation is that we all don't get to watch Berrios as much.

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#26 Vanimal46

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 02:48 PM

The other problem with the 6-man rotation is that we all don't get to watch Berrios as much.


Which is the biggest problem. Less Berrios starts makes Van a sad boy.
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#27 Dantes929

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 03:57 PM

As much as I have read, science does not support or refute innings limits.I truly believe that an injury is just as or more likely in ST than it is in inning 156.I don't know what kind of throwing program pitchers are on pre ST but it feels like they accelerate from throwing 30 pitches to 100 pretty rapidly.  

Throwing over 30 pitches in an inning seems like it would have more detrimental effect than innings or overall pitches. 

One article posited that what pitchers do between innings is very important also. We have all seen Gibson on tv doing all sorts of stretches and exercises to stay loose but I don't see the others do it much. 

I just don't see how shutting someone down for 5 months and then starting them over on building them up over the next 7 months and then repeating is a way to build up innings over a career.I am very much in the camp of watch for fatigue evidenced by smoothness of delivery and velocity.Some pitchers are going to get hurt no matter what and some have been babied their whole life and probably left countless innings wasted in the tank.Blyleven, Ryan and Clemens on pitch or innings limits would have eliminated thousands of innings of HOF production.

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#28 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 04:27 PM

The rule is a 20% increase now?
I could have swore it was 30%.
If it drops anymore, guys will be getting their senior discount before they get back to full strength from TJ.
His body will tell you when he's had enough, not some arbitrary number.
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#29 caninatl04

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 05:21 PM

 

Excellent, and you seem to have a consensus that there should be some limitation.

 

No matter how you decided the innings/pitches question, it is likely he should be shut down at some point later in the season.Considering that Romero is one of their best four pitchers, the bigger question is what to do if the Twins are in the hunt for the playoffs?How do they get him available come October?

That would be a wonderful problem to have for a team currently 6 games under .500


#30 mikelink45

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 08:58 PM

No innings limit, instead we are in such a stat dominated period that we should see when spin rate and velocity take a dive and then we give him a rest.Use the tools not some artificial limit.Is there a difference between 155 and 156 innings?  

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#31 yarnivek1972

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 09:07 PM

No innings limit, instead we are in such a stat dominated period that we should see when spin rate and velocity take a dive and then we give him a rest. Use the tools not some artificial limit. Is there a difference between 155 and 156 innings?


Um, yeah. 1. Boy, you suck at math.

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#32 D.C Twins

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 09:32 PM

Not all people/arms are the same

 

Not all innings are the same

 

Not all pitchers have the same mix of pitches

 

Not all pitches stress the arm the same 

 

Ergo, innings limitations are ridiculous. 

 

Pitchers need to be followed closely for the earliest signs of fatigue (drop in velocity, change in mechanics, even small amounts of pain in the pitching elbow/shoulder, loss of control) and shut down quickly at the earliest warning signs. 

 

"sabermetrics" will catch up to this in the near future and there will be intricate algorithms to dictate these decisions .

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#33 Doctor Wu

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Posted 14 June 2018 - 06:18 AM

We keep talking about "when Santana comes back" but do we even know that will actually happen before the season is over? I mean, it's mid-June already and there ain't much time left! If Santana's rehab resumes again, what's the new timeline for his return?

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#34 Dantes929

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Posted 14 June 2018 - 08:18 AM

 

No innings limit, instead we are in such a stat dominated period that we should see when spin rate and velocity take a dive and then we give him a rest.Use the tools not some artificial limit.Is there a difference between 155 and 156 innings?  

I would hope the coaches and the pitchers themselves are also in tune with the effort it takes to achieve those stats. Effort instead of mechanics should be monitored by observation. When guys start getting tired smoothness leaves and is replaced by effort. 

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#35 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 14 June 2018 - 08:35 AM

Considering that Romero had issues last year, I'd say it's safe to say that even if the Verducci effect is garbage, Romero certainly has issues with fatigue that need to be planned for. Once it's there, he's going to need a DL and it's quite possible the pen won't fix it.

 

I guess my position is why not just go to a 6 man rotation at some point when Erv, May, or Gonsaves are ready. That would effectively put him on a limit without forcing the pen to consistently cover 4 innings. It might mean not carrying 20 relievers on the roster though.


#36 yarnivek1972

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Posted 14 June 2018 - 08:58 AM

How does a 6 man rotation change the number of relievers the team needs?

The Twins are carrying 8 now. If they carry 6 starters too that leaves 2 bench players. A catcher and ??

#37 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 14 June 2018 - 09:03 AM

 

AFAIK there is no reliable data indicating some specific increase in innings year to year leads to injury. “The Verducci Effect” is sloppy science at best. There is no reason to set an innings limit today. If at some point he is fatigued, rest him. Let Romero, the pitching coach, and the medical staff determine that, if/when necessary.

Pitchers are at risk for injury. All of them, every time they pitch. Pitch them when they’re healthy. They’re of no use if they can’t pitch, and resting him in 2018 does little or nothing to help 2019, IMO.

I mostly agree with this but I'd still try to work in some breaks around the ASG out of caution.

 

Because if his arm fatigues in September and the Twins have climbed back into this thing, it will really hurt to remove Romero from the stretch run and possibly the postseason.

 

Two or three games skipped in July and August could be important insurance for September and October.

 

You don't even have to skip that many starts, in all likelihood. If you use creative off-day management and the ASG, you can probably push out his starts to 7-9 days a couple of times, effectively skipping one start.


#38 Mike Sixel

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Posted 14 June 2018 - 10:16 AM

I mostly agree with this but I'd still try to work in some breaks around the ASG out of caution.
 
Because if his arm fatigues in September and the Twins have climbed back into this thing, it will really hurt to remove Romero from the stretch run and possibly the postseason.
 
Two or three games skipped in July and August could be important insurance for September and October.
 
You don't even have to skip that many starts, in all likelihood. If you use creative off-day management and the ASG, you can probably push out his starts to 7-9 days a couple of times, effectively skipping one start.


Aren't they more likely to be in it, if he pitches in July? If not, does it matter they saved him?

There's always next year, or the next, or maybe by the time I'm Chief's age, I guess....


#39 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 14 June 2018 - 10:27 AM

Aren't they more likely to be in it, if he pitches in July? If not, does it matter they saved him?

Sure, but that’s a gamble you’re going to take either way and I’d like to protect any postseason performance more than a couple of mid season starts.

#40 JLease

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Posted 14 June 2018 - 10:45 AM

I think it's reasonable to consider a limit, based on innings, pitches, etc. And I think the Twins management will be thoughtful about it.

 

I wonder if it would be better to space things out so that he's pitching late in the year, though, to get him used to the length of the MLB season, even while he's building up to the innings? Is there value in giving him a little extra rest in July/August (skipping his turn in the rotation while still having him do his regular work) and having him actually pitching later in the year just to try and acclimate him to the length of the season while trying to not overstress the arm.

 

I doubt there's any good data on this yet, and you know what they say: it's better to read the case study than be the case study...




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