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Article: MIN 6, DET 4: More Grand Slams, Please

ehire adrianza jake odorizzi fernando rodney
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#1 Tom Froemming

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Posted 12 June 2018 - 09:14 PM

Earlier today, the Twins brought back Matt Belisle, which appeared to be an indication the front office isn’t ready to trust the younger relievers. Well, there’re two sides to every transaction.

To make room for Belisle, the Twins designated Gregorio Petit for assignment, leaving the bench without an infielder. That's a pretty big show of trust in Ehire Adrianza.

In a situation he may usually have been lifted for a pinch hitter, Adrianza hit his first career grand slam tonight, lifting the Twins to a come-from-behind victory.Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs)
Current record: 29-34
Jake Odorizzi: 52 Game Score, 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K, 4 BB, 62.7% strikes
Bullpen: 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K, 1 BB
Lineup: 2-for-4 w/RISP, 3 LOB
Top three per WPA: Adrianza .558, Sano .185, Rodney .101
Download attachment: WinEx612.png
How great was it to see the Twins not only comeback, but also hold a slim lead late? Coming into this game, the Twins were only 4-25 when trailing after six innings.

Eduardo Escobar (who else?) led off the seventh with a single, which was followed by a walk from Miguel Sano. You had to have a feeling things were going to go the Twins’ way when Sano was actually able to check his swing on a full count to draw the free pass.

Max Kepler struck out and pinch hitter Jake Cave flew out. Just like that, you had to have the feeling the Twins were going to squander another scoring chance. Logan Morrison drew a walk to load ‘em up, bringing up Adrianza.

Ehire entered this game hitting .202/.269/.340 (.610 OPS) against right-handed pitchers. Those numbers look much better now. Adrianza knocked his first career grand slam, putting the Twins up 5-2.

Jake Odorizzi started this game for the Twins, and it was pretty miraculous that he only gave up two runs. He walked four batters and hit another one over just five innings, but managed to get outs when he really needed them.

The bullpen delivered, allowing two unearned runs. Fernando Rodney pitched a perfect ninth inning to earn his 14th save. He also rode the bullpen cart.

Adrianza ended the game 3-for-4. Amazing what a show of faith can inspire.

Postgame With Molitor

Bullpen Usage
Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:
Download attachment: Bullpen612.png
AL Central Standings
CLE 35-29
MIN 29-34 (-5.5)
DET 31-37 (-6)
CHW 22-42 (-13)
KC 22-44 (-14)

Next Three Games
Wed at DET, 6:10 pm CT
Thu at DET, 12:10 pm CT
Fri at CLE, 6:10 pm CT

Last Three Games
MIN 7, LAA 5: Jake Cave Sparks a Fire
LAA 2, MIN 1: Is This a Rerun?
LAA 4, MIN 2: Bullpen, Bats Spoil Strong Start from Lynn

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#2 Old Twins Cap

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Posted 12 June 2018 - 09:52 PM

Season-changer? Sano checked his swing and took a walk before Adrianza's blast.

 

Then doinked a hit to right his next time up to drive in a run.

 

Will need more of that. Against good teams.

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#3 Kelly Vance

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Posted 12 June 2018 - 09:55 PM

Sano went opposite field on purpose...... yay!!!!!!

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#4 howeda7

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Posted 12 June 2018 - 10:49 PM

The offense is still putrid. Get Dozier tf out of the lead-off spot. On the all too frequent days Grossman plays, at least bat him lead-off. Try Adrianza there. Or get Gordon up here. I'm not sure what to do with Kepler. Maybe try him in the 2 spot. Get Dozier down to 5-6. 

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#5 howeda7

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Posted 12 June 2018 - 10:55 PM

Current OPS:

 

Cave 1.000

Rosario .903

Escobar .901

 

Adrianza .748.

Kepler .747.

Dozier .717.

 

Sano .693

Morrison .647

Grossman .647 

Garver .639

LaMarre .623

Wilson .510

 

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#6 jorgenswest

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Posted 12 June 2018 - 11:09 PM

I don’t generally pay attention to slash stats in season but Adrianza caught my attention above.

Though not predictive for the future, his 101 RC+ and positive defensive metrics thus far are far better than I expected. I am not sure that they should expect better overall production from Polanco.
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#7 Aerodeliria

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Posted 12 June 2018 - 11:39 PM

It was nice to escape that disastrous 7th inning. It seems like whenever Duke of Earl enters the game everybody starts throwing the ball around (including him). I was so happy MOY didn't opt for Reed to try and save the day. I was calling for Hildenberger (even though my voice can't be heard from this far away).

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#8 Tom Froemming

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 05:37 AM

 

I don’t generally pay attention to slash stats in season but Adrianza caught my attention above.

Though not predictive for the future, his 101 RC+ and positive defensive metrics thus far are far better than I expected. I am not sure that they should expect better overall production from Polanco.

To your point ...

 

Ehire Adrianza in 118 games as a Twin

.261/.322/.403 (.726 OPS, 97 OPS+)

 

Jorge Polanco in 211 games as a Twin

.266/.322/.417 (.739 OPS, 98 OPS+)

 

Ehire is hitting .340/.404/.723(!) over his last 53 plate appearances. That's obviously not sustainable, but he's been a breath of fresh air for an offense on life support.

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#9 jorgenswest

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 06:59 AM

To your point ...
 
Ehire Adrianza in 118 games as a Twin
.261/.322/.403 (.726 OPS, 97 OPS+)
 
Jorge Polanco in 211 games as a Twin
.266/.322/.417 (.739 OPS, 98 OPS+)
 
Ehire is hitting .340/.404/.723(!) over his last 53 plate appearances. That's obviously not sustainable, but he's been a breath of fresh air for an offense on life support.


I know it is still not predictive but Adrianza adds a better glove to similar production at the plate.

Projecting forward it is important to realize that this is Adrianza’s prime and likely ceiling and Polanco is a few year away from his prime.
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#10 lukeduke1980

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 07:13 AM

I've been an Adrianza hater - but he must be working at his craft because he has improved this year.Hopefully it inspires those whom aren't hitting.


#11 slash129

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 07:54 AM

 

The offense is still putrid. Get Dozier tf out of the lead-off spot. On the all too frequent days Grossman plays, at least bat him lead-off. Try Adrianza there. Or get Gordon up here. I'm not sure what to do with Kepler. Maybe try him in the 2 spot. Get Dozier down to 5-6. 

 

Horrible idea


#12 ThejacKmp

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 08:16 AM

Adrianza gets a lot of deserved crap here but he's not a bad utility infielder. You could ask for a bit more speed on the basepaths (most shocking statistic of this year is that Grossman is faster than him) but he handles the glove well and is a switch hitter. He's just been overmatched playing everyday.

 

Too bad his days are numbered when Polanco comes back. Hard to see him sticking on the roster then.

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#13 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 08:16 AM

 

The offense is still putrid. Get Dozier tf out of the lead-off spot. On the all too frequent days Grossman plays, at least bat him lead-off. Try Adrianza there. Or get Gordon up here. I'm not sure what to do with Kepler. Maybe try him in the 2 spot. Get Dozier down to 5-6. 

Mauyer leads off when he gets back. Time to move Dozier down the lineup while he tries to find his stroke.Lineup now:

 

Mauer

Rosario

Escobar

Sano

Kepler

Dozier

Adrianza

Garver/Wilson/Rupp

Cave/LaMarre

 

Then, when we get Polanco back, we can just slide him into the 2 hole, move Escobar to 5 and move Kepler back to 7 or 8 where he belongs unfortunately. Buxton goes to the 9 hole when he gets back. For the rest of the season:

 

Mauer

Polanco

Rosario

Sano

Escobar

Dozier

Kepler

Garver/Wilson/Rupp/Someone we get in a trade (Catcher)

Buxton

 

Bench - Adrianza, 2nd catcher, and 2 of the following - Morrison/Grossman/Cave/LaMarre/8th bullpen guy. Grossman probably gets one spot because he is allegedly an OF and without him Escobar is the 4th OF. Cave has a chance to be that guy and about 15 games to show the team why it should be him instead of Grossman. With Molitor as the manager and Grossman's lack of remaining options, odds are Grossman stays and Cave goes to AAA. LaMarre goes to AAA as injury insurance. We either trade Morrison or go to 7 BP pitchers unless there's an injury. I like Morrison as a 1B but he just isn't hitting so maybe he gets DFA'd (does he have an option left?) for the 8th BP but that's a tough pill for the FO to swallow. 

 


#14 ThejacKmp

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 08:18 AM

The Twins are 1-0 in Matt Belisle Era 2.0


#15 spycake

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 08:34 AM

 

Adrianza gets a lot of deserved crap here but he's not a bad utility infielder. You could ask for a bit more speed on the basepaths (most shocking statistic of this year is that Grossman is faster than him) but he handles the glove well and is a switch hitter. He's just been overmatched playing everyday.

 

Too bad his days are numbered when Polanco comes back. Hard to see him sticking on the roster then.

You're right -- Adrianza was worth about ~1 WAR last year in only 186 PA, and again is ~1 WAR in 149 PA already this year. I wouldn't count on that extrapolating to 500 PA, but he's got room for his offense to falter and still be a perfectly fine bench player.

 

When Polanco returns, I think the Twins might be better off clearing a regular spot for Escobar rather than dropping a bench guy like Adrianza. If Mauer and Sano are both healthy by then, we're really at the point of the season where they could make a move with Grossman or Morrison.


#16 Han Joelo

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 09:01 AM

While I hope Sano's single portends better things to come, it will also serve as a useful footnote when assessing the Twins' record in one run games this year.  I wonder what their record is in games where they've been able to tack on that all-important insurance run.

 

 

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#17 ThejacKmp

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 09:02 AM

 

You're right -- Adrianza was worth about ~1 WAR last year in only 186 PA, and again is ~1 WAR in 149 PA already this year. I wouldn't count on that extrapolating to 500 PA, but he's got room for his offense to falter and still be a perfectly fine bench player.

 

When Polanco returns, I think the Twins might be better off clearing a regular spot for Escobar rather than dropping a bench guy like Adrianza. If Mauer and Sano are both healthy by then, we're really at the point of the season where they could make a move with Grossman or Morrison.

 

I guess that depends how well you think Adrianza can handle outfield? Is he an emergency guy or is he a guy who you feel is on a par with Grossman? Grossman is much maligned in the OF but he at least played it a decent amount. Mauer and Buxton mean bye bye to LaMarre and Cave.

 

Maybe they'll try Escobar as a 4th OF? He's played the equivalent of 30 full games out there but it certainly wouldn't be ideal.

 

I'd hate to give up on Morrison this early. He's got too decent of a track record against righties to be this bad.

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#18 OldTimeTwinkie

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 09:23 AM

I will be surprised if Polanco is anywhere close to what he was last year. Two reasons why; 1. No PED', this year. 2. Not only no spring training preparation but way behind pitching by missing 80 games.

He is not going to just resume where he left off.
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#19 spycake

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 09:26 AM

 

I guess that depends how well you think Adrianza can handle outfield? Is he an emergency guy or is he a guy who you feel is on a par with Grossman? Grossman is much maligned in the OF but he at least played it a decent amount. Mauer and Buxton mean bye bye to LaMarre and Cave.

 

Maybe they'll try Escobar as a 4th OF? He's played the equivalent of 30 full games out there but it certainly wouldn't be ideal.

 

I'd hate to give up on Morrison this early. He's got too decent of a track record against righties to be this bad.

That's all assuming they keep rolling with 13 pitchers. Otherwise there is room for LaMarre or Cave as a proper 4th outfielder.


#20 yarnivek1972

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 09:50 AM

Adrianza gets a lot of deserved crap here but he's not a bad utility infielder. You could ask for a bit more speed on the basepaths (most shocking statistic of this year is that Grossman is faster than him) but he handles the glove well and is a switch hitter. He's just been overmatched playing everyday.

Too bad his days are numbered when Polanco comes back. Hard to see him sticking on the roster then.


Is there some metric that says Grossman is faster than Adrianza? It certainly doesn’t pass the eye test. Ehire is pretty quick.

I don’t know how much more time the Twins are willing to give Logan Morrison. My guess is the Sano to 1b/dh starts when Polanco gets back. With Mauer also likely back by then, Morrison is the logical odd man out.



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