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Help is on the Way! Twins Sign Matt Belisle!

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#101 yarnivek1972

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 11:29 AM

So he's good enough to stick in a good pen, but not a bad one?
Am I the only one who thinks that is backwards?


Apparently Falvine doesn’t think it is backwards.

#102 ThejacKmp

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 11:35 AM

 

So he's good enough to stick in a good pen, but not a bad one?
Am I the only one who thinks that is backwards?

 

My point is that bad bullpens don't have the ability to rest a struggling guy while other guys step up (like the Twins did with Hildy in April when he sucked). There's no one to lean on. They're more likely to jettison someone who might be expected to bounce back because they're looking for anyone who can help now. Especially a team that is expected to contend but is struggling.

 

Again, not arguing that Matt Belisle is amazing or a savior. Just that the sample size this year is small and Cleveland jettisoning him may say more about the current state of Cleveland's bullpen than Matt Belisle's outlook for the rest of the year.


#103 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 11:37 AM

Apparently Falvine doesn’t think it is backwards.


Where did you see Falvine quoted as saying what I responded to?

My comment wasn't in reference to us signing him.
It was in response to the theory that you have to be better to stick in an awful bullpen than you do to stick in a good bullpen.

#104 spycake

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 11:39 AM

FWIW, the Indians cut Belisle to add Ben Taylor to their roster. Taylor is a 25 year old RH reliever with some potential and options remaining.

 

And the Indians cut Belisle only 6 days after placing Miller on the DL, and just a day before moving Salazar to the 60-day DL and placing Nick Goody on the DL too. They DFA'd two other players including another reliever just 2 days later. Belisle wasn't really forced off their roster for reasons other than performance.

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#105 spycake

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 11:52 AM

 

My point is that bad bullpens don't have the ability to rest a struggling guy while other guys step up (like the Twins did with Hildy in April when he sucked). There's no one to lean on. They're more likely to jettison someone who might be expected to bounce back because they're looking for anyone who can help now. Especially a team that is expected to contend but is struggling.

 

Again, not arguing that Matt Belisle is amazing or a savior. Just that the sample size this year is small and Cleveland jettisoning him may say more about the current state of Cleveland's bullpen than Matt Belisle's outlook for the rest of the year.

This would be a more compelling theory if the Indians didn't repeatedly pass on Belisle over the last month-plus. You're telling me they believed he would bounce back, but couldn't find a way to add him back to their pen during a month when they added and subtracted like 5 other marginal relievers, including the ghost of Alexi Ogando?

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#106 clone52

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 11:58 AM

Belisle sucks for Cleveland

Cleveland cuts Belisle

Twins coaches tell management that Belisle's mechanics are screwed up and it is the same issue they fixed in June of that year.

Management signs Belisle

 

Not saying thats what happened, but its completely feasible that the Twins coaches saw something on his film this year that they know they can fix.

 

If we get Belisle like he was from June to the end of the year last year, we have a tremendous asset.

If we get Belisle like he was from June to July last year, we have a trade piece.

If Belisle just flat out sucks, we don't really lose out on anything.


#107 yarnivek1972

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 12:15 PM

Belisle sucks for Cleveland
Cleveland cuts Belisle
Twins coaches tell management that Belisle's mechanics are screwed up and it is the same issue they fixed in June of that year.
Management signs Belisle

Not saying thats what happened, but its completely feasible that the Twins coaches saw something on his film this year that they know they can fix.

If we get Belisle like he was from June to the end of the year last year, we have a tremendous asset.
If we get Belisle like he was from June to July last year, we have a trade piece.
If Belisle just flat out sucks, we don't really lose out on anything.


Other than not having an infielder readily available if someone gets hurt for roughly a month.

#108 Doomtints

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 03:30 PM

 

From the AP.

 

Twins relievers rank 21st in the major leagues with a 4.15 ERA.

 

 

 

Including pitchers who are no longer on the roster, sure, why not. But why include those people?


#109 spycake

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 03:46 PM

Including pitchers who are no longer on the roster, sure, why not. But why include those people?


Do you want to apply that criteria to all 30 teams?
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#110 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 04:21 PM

Yeah every team has bad relievers that they've demoted or released.
I'd imagine the removal of the dead weight mostly evens out across the league, and if re ranked for current personnel, the rankings would be roughly the same order.

#111 Doomtints

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 04:43 PM

 

Do you want to apply that criteria to all 30 teams?

 

Of course........


#112 Doomtints

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 04:56 PM

 

 

Yeah every team has bad relievers that they've demoted or released.
I'd imagine the removal of the dead weight mostly evens out across the league, and if re ranked for current personnel, the rankings would be roughly the same order.

 

WELLLL let's look at the data shall we?

 

ERA of relief pitchers on the roster (not including Belisle): 3.09. (For those playing at home, this is INCREDIBLE, world-series winning caliber relief pitching.)

ERA of relief pitchers who are not on the roster anymore: 9.44 (For those playing at home, this is going to skew things just a wee bit.)

 

Relievers on the roster have allowed 58 earned runs in 168 2/3 innings.

Relievers not on the roster have allowed 50 earned runs in 47 2/3 innings.

 

Yes, I would *love* for everyone to do a sample of every team in the league. I can tell you right now, few if any have a bullpen with a 3.09 ERA with their active relief pitchers.

 

Which would YOU do to project the future performance of the Twins bullpen? Would you use data from pitchers who are no longer on the roster or nah? Would you pick up Belisle based on data from players who you have already cut or nah?

Edited by Doomtints, 13 June 2018 - 05:06 PM.


#113 yarnivek1972

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 05:11 PM

WELLLL let's look at the data shall we?

ERA of relief pitchers on the roster (not including Belisle): 3.09. (For those playing at home, this is INCREDIBLE, world-series winning caliber relief pitching.)

ERA of relief pitchers who are not on the roster anymore: 9.44 (For those playing at home, this is going to skew things just a wee bit.)

Relievers on the roster have allowed 58 earned runs in 168 2/3 innings.
Relievers not on the roster have allowed 50 earned runs in 47 2/3 innings.

Yes, I would *love* for everyone to do a sample of every team in the league. I can tell you right now, few if any have a bullpen with a 3.09 ERA with their active relief pitchers.

Which would YOU do to project the future performance of the Twins bullpen? Would you use data from pitchers who are no longer on the roster or nah? Would you pick up Belisle based on data from players who you have already cut or nah?


One problem with that method. By subtracting guys not currently part of the relief core, you are also subtracting the guys who would be coming up from AAA- Curtiss, Busenitz, Moya, Duffey and even Littell or Slegers.

#114 Doomtints

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 05:18 PM

 

One problem with that method. By subtracting guys not currently part of the relief core, you are also subtracting the guys who would be coming up from AAA- Curtiss, Busenitz, Moya, Duffey and even Littell or Slegers.

 

That's not a "problem with the method." Players in the minors are opportunity costs. They are not the current state of the team and they might never be used. If at some point they are used, you adjust the numbers.

 

These same players are NOT on the team any longer because of those same opportunity costs. The method applies to both scenarios.


#115 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 13 June 2018 - 05:36 PM

WELLLL let's look at the data shall we?

ERA of relief pitchers on the roster (not including Belisle): 3.09. (For those playing at home, this is INCREDIBLE, world-series winning caliber relief pitching.)

ERA of relief pitchers who are not on the roster anymore: 9.44 (For those playing at home, this is going to skew things just a wee bit.)

Relievers on the roster have allowed 58 earned runs in 168 2/3 innings.
Relievers not on the roster have allowed 50 earned runs in 47 2/3 innings.

Yes, I would *love* for everyone to do a sample of every team in the league. I can tell you right now, few if any have a bullpen with a 3.09 ERA with their active relief pitchers.

Which would YOU do to project the future performance of the Twins bullpen? Would you use data from pitchers who are no longer on the roster or nah? Would you pick up Belisle based on data from players who you have already cut or nah?


You still aren't applying that to all 30 teams.
You are just using a gut feeling of where they'd rank.

#116 clone52

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Posted 14 June 2018 - 07:08 AM

 

Other than not having an infielder readily available if someone gets hurt for roughly a month.

 

Well, you can always use Sano and shuffle things around.Even if he's DHing, thats only part of a game that you are without a DH.If someone does get hurt, you can always call back Petit the next day.

 

I find it a little funny that the argument is that the team needs Adrianza, Petit and Escobar on the roster.

 

Not to mention, that probably won't be an issue for all that long.There is really no need for both Cave and Lamarre to be on the active roster (Mauer probably takes one of their spots) and they'll drop a relief pitcher at some point.

Edited by clone52, 14 June 2018 - 07:15 AM.