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Article: Twins Select Ryan Jeffers in the Second Round of the 2018 Draft

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#21 Seth Stohs

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Posted 04 June 2018 - 10:57 PM

Couple random comments about this pick that I've thought through since it was announced:

 

1.) It's important to remember that the Twins Top 200 or their draft board or whatever you want to call it isn't the same as MLB.com or Baseball America or FanGraphs or anyone else... and that's a good thing. The Twins have had eyes on these guys far longer and more often than those sites. So, just because he wasn't in whoever's top 200 really isn't a big deal.

 

2.) That said, I have to believe they got some savings from that pick, something below slot.

 

3.) I'd also say that it clearly signals that the Twins valued obtaining a catcher (or more) in the draft, and they are fully convicted that Jeffers can be a catcher, a big league catcher, at some point. They correctly predicted a mini-run on catchers (2-3 came after he was selected, and since they don't have a 3rd round pick, they didn't want to wait until then, knowing that the guy they clearly wanted (Jeffers) wouldn't be there ... This is all a guess, of course.

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#22 Kelly Vance

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Posted 05 June 2018 - 12:15 AM

catchers don't usually hit .300.  OK, I'm in. 


#23 h2oface

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Posted 05 June 2018 - 12:21 AM

 

No. It means he has a chance to stay at catcher, unlike some others. It's the opposite of what you just typed.

 

I understand an 80% chance to stay at catcher, or 100, or 50 or 20, or even zero. I have no idea what non-zero means. Seems that if people want to communicate, they won't do it in code. Non-zero could mean anything then? Like anywhere between zero and 100% chance? Now that is sticking your predictive neck out, big time.

 

I find it interesting that this FO spends 24 million or so on a catcher that can't hit, because they like glove first, but they draft a hitting catcher, but don't sign a Ramos or a hitting catcher to play for the Twins.

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#24 Kelly Vance

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Posted 05 June 2018 - 12:34 AM

 

Couple random comments about this pick that I've thought through since it was announced:

 

1.) It's important to remember that the Twins Top 200 or their draft board or whatever you want to call it isn't the same as MLB.com or Baseball America or FanGraphs or anyone else... and that's a good thing. The Twins have had eyes on these guys far longer and more often than those sites. So, just because he wasn't in whoever's top 200 really isn't a big deal.

 

2.) That said, I have to believe they got some savings from that pick, something below slot.

 

3.) I'd also say that it clearly signals that the Twins valued obtaining a catcher (or more) in the draft, and they are fully convicted that Jeffers can be a catcher, a big league catcher, at some point. They correctly predicted a mini-run on catchers (2-3 came after he was selected, and since they don't have a 3rd round pick, they didn't want to wait until then, knowing that the guy they clearly wanted (Jeffers) wouldn't be there ... This is all a guess, of course.

I liked this post, because all it did was make sense. You may not have been in the room, but I can't help but think you were. I think you may be right.  Twins like hitting catchers, ala Mauer, Red Dawg (hit .341 one year as Mauer's BU) and everyone not named Butera (anybody notice he is still in the league?) 

 

So, we currently need catchers. This pick won't change that. I still suspect a trade is imminent. If Garver doesn't shine and Wilson don't hit (he has a cannon of an arm, which i saw IRL in Seattle, so I will shut up about him)  we still need a playable backstop. Which I think may mean a call up for a spell, if only a couple weeks, if we can't find a deal. But who?  I like Nav.  Give him a week in the Hilton, why don't we?

 

BTW, Can Rosario catch?

 

And am I the only one who thinks calling up a kid, maybe a Lookout, if only for a spell, makes him a better player, long run? It gets him a dose of desire for use later, right?  We have a young team. There will be hiccups, but when you go with a youth movement, you gotta let the kids play. So you toggle the switch and call up a kid. Give him a look at the Show. Send him back with his face glowing like he just saw Sophia Vergera up close. He may be back sooner than expected that way.

 

BTW, if like me you are following the  MLB draft, you don't have enough to do 


#25 Kelly Vance

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Posted 05 June 2018 - 12:36 AM

 

I understand an 80% chance to stay at catcher, or 100, or 50 or 20, or even zero. I have no idea what non-zero means. Seems that if people want to communicate, they won't do it in code. Non-zero could mean anything then? Like anywhere between zero and 100% chance? Now that is sticking your predictive neck out, big time.

 

I find it interesting that this FO spends 24 million or so on a catcher that can't hit, because they like glove first, but they draft a hitting catcher, but don't sign a Ramos or a hitting catcher to play for the Twins.

See, that is why you will never work in the FO. You expect things to make SENSE.

If it makes any difference, I thought the same thing. 

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#26 jokin

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Posted 05 June 2018 - 02:46 AM

 

 

 

Is Ryan Jeffers the reincarnation of Bill Paxton?

 

"Game over, man! Game over!" (Jeffers interview after a two-run walk-off 13th inning homer vs. Coastal Carolina).

 

 

 

 

 

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#27 AlwaysinModeration

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Posted 05 June 2018 - 04:50 AM

I'm not sure the math adds up, but maybe I'm not following.

Slot is $1.1M in the second, and you "save" 600K. Say you save $1M in the first round. Now, say slot is $600k in the third.

In the second you'd have the $2.1 million to allocate to a player. In the third you'd have $2.2.

So why not just take the guy you want in the second? What difference does $100K make?


Well, of they like Jeffers and think he won’t be available in the third, that would be one reason.

#28 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 05 June 2018 - 05:00 AM

This pick only makes sense to me -- slot savings or otherwise -- if they're convinced they can keep his guy behind the plate.
 
It's entirely possible his caught stealing rates were down because his pitchers were bad at holding on runners or maybe there are some minor mechanical tweaks the Twins think they've identified that would clean things up in a jiffy. I'm sure they'll talk up his character, which is particularly important for a catcher, but maybe they also see some things in Jeffers that make them believe he is/can be a plus pitch framer, blocker and manager of a pitching staff. Who knows?
 
Above-average power is nice, but I have to imagine there were plenty of other 55 raw power guys still available at that pick if they were simply looking for a bat.


I'm not going to pretend to know which catchers are better than others. I've only read scouting reports. They needed catching badly, and if this guy has a chance at being in the majors 2-3 years from now, then this is a good pick.
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#29 Platoon

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Posted 05 June 2018 - 06:18 AM

TRyan Jeffers has 55 raw, chance to catch. Big-bodied guy with enough arm strength to catch but mobility issues and maybe receiving issues catching pro stuff.>>>>>>>>>>> The thing about catcher is simply this. Your defense, or lack thereof, impacts the game on so many pitches, it has to be at a minimum adequate, or your bat has to be exceptional, for you to be a plus player on your team. We are currently doing live time research on this scenario right now. A catcher with a very average bat, and serious receiving short comings. It doesn't take long to see the amount of offense one has to generate to overcome the lack defensive abilities. (I think there is a non zero chance anyone will agree with this) :)
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#30 ThejacKmp

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Posted 05 June 2018 - 06:27 AM

 

I'm not going to pretend to know which catchers are better than others. I've only read scouting reports. They needed catching badly, and if this guy has a chance at being in the majors 2-3 years from now, then this is a good pick.

 

If you're not going to pretend that you know more than the scouts and front office, you have no place on these message boards. I say good day to you sir.

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#31 Thrylos

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Posted 05 June 2018 - 06:44 AM

The defensive "shortcomings" I read about are:

  • He threw out only about 20% of the runners, which has been translated as he has a weak arm, which is a leap of faith.
  • He did not play in a top conference, so there are concerns whether he will be able to "handle pro pitchers", which is yet another leap of faith.

 

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#32 Tom Froemming

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Posted 05 June 2018 - 06:52 AM

 

TRyan Jeffers has 55 raw, chance to catch. Big-bodied guy with enough arm strength to catch but mobility issues and maybe receiving issues catching pro stuff.>>>>>>>>>>> The thing about catcher is simply this. Your defense, or lack thereof, impacts the game on so many pitches, it has to be at a minimum adequate, or your bat has to be exceptional, for you to be a plus player on your team. We are currently doing live time research on this scenario right now. A catcher with a very average bat, and serious receiving short comings. It doesn't take long to see the amount of offense one has to generate to overcome the lack defensive abilities. (I think there is a non zero chance anyone will agree with this) :)

Garver has looked rough around the edges at times, but the team is also 12-13 in games he's started and pitchers have a 3.51 ERA pitching to him. When someone else has been behind the plate, Twins pitchers have a 4.86 ERA and are 13-17. That has to count for something, right?

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#33 rdehring

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Posted 05 June 2018 - 06:56 AM

Don't know if I like this pick, or not.Will let you know in three or four years.But I like Seth's comments, the FO knows a lot more about him than any of us...including all the draft experts.

 

Seeing he is a college kid with a big bat, will be interesting to see where he starts his professional career.Will it be ETon or maybe even Cedar Rapids?That will tell us a little more about him and their opinion of him.

 

I also expect the Twins are going to save some dollars with this pick and their #1 pick.How much remains to be seen.They don't have a third round pick, so whomever they choose to give the dollars to will come later.If I recall, they took several guys later on last year that required more dollars.Expect we will see a few of those drafted today and/or tomorrow.

 

 


#34 jud6312

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Posted 05 June 2018 - 07:11 AM

I figured it out guys ... positional flexibility. He pitched 3 times for the Willmington Sharks during the 2016 Coastal Plain League season. Unfortunately, the bat didn't seem to play as well there, or in the New England Collegiate League, as it did at UNCW.

 

http://www.thebaseba...e.asp?ID=202003

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#35 gunnarthor

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Posted 05 June 2018 - 07:19 AM

After day one last year, I was a whiny little bitch. So I'll hold off until we see what they do today. But they don't have a couple picks they could/should've had so I'm not sure what we're going to see. I think this draft is going to be more like the 2015 draft where we took Tyler Jay early, didn't have a second round pick, didn't sign our next pick and then used some money to get guys like Blankenhorn, Kendrick and Cabbage. I don't see an Enlow happening this year. 

 

Working on the edges isn't horrible but it's certainly not going to be as sexy as last year or the 2016 draft (which I still think will rival 2012). Getting a few extra 3rd/4th round types is probably what's going to happen.

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#36 Platoon

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Posted 05 June 2018 - 07:25 AM

Garver has looked rough around the edges at times, but the team is also 12-13 in games he's started and pitchers have a 3.51 ERA pitching to him. When someone else has been behind the plate, Twins pitchers have a 4.86 ERA and are 13-17. That has to count for something, right?

I am sure your figures are correct. But I would also need to know who each guy was catching. And I say that with no idea if there is a pattern here, but it is also a statistical SSS. I think Garver is athletic enough, and the arm strength is sufficient. But he has absolutely horrid hands. When you watched him and the Cleveland catcher the difference in how they received the ball was startling. Soft hands are a gift, like quickness.
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#37 RatherBeGolfing

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Posted 05 June 2018 - 07:38 AM

Not a very high ceiling, and not even a super safe pick either. 

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#38 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 05 June 2018 - 08:14 AM

Not a very high ceiling, and not even a super safe pick either.


based on the write up, I'd disagree on the high ceiling part. I think this is more of a high risk high reward type pick.
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#39 DutchFarmer

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Posted 05 June 2018 - 08:21 AM

They were sniped by the marlins (Johnson) and another team (don’t know which) on their first and second targets for their round 2 pick, with overslot offers to both. Full disclosure, secondhand sourcing here (friend of a friend in the org.).
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#40 JLease

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Posted 05 June 2018 - 08:30 AM

Well, I wanted them to add depth in the minors at C and 3B, and they've added another C so that's good. If he can stick at catcher, then this is probably a pretty good pick. 

 

It's seems pretty rare to find a guy who doesn't need work defensively at catcher? And when they do pop up, it's even more rare that they can hit their weight. So let's get him in the system and start the work.

 

Now, about 3B...




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