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Article: 2018 MLB Draft Day 1 Thread

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#21 twinsfanstreif

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Posted 04 June 2018 - 10:03 AM

Best pitcher available, it doesn't have to be hard.


We did that in 2009 and ended up passing on Trout for Gibson

#22 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 04 June 2018 - 10:04 AM

I think between the two approaches Andrew detailed in the most recent update, I'd rather see the Twins go with the best player available approach. With a big strength of the system right now being guys between the ages of 18-20, I don't think it would be that bad of a thing if they were handcuffed into taking more college seniors earlier than they typically would on Day 2.
 
It may be a little nerve-racking to basically put all your eggs into one basket, but I say go for it.


Once you get to pick 20, I really doubt there's a clear BPA. I think the target (for pick 1) should be a HS pitcher. For the next pick, I'm hoping one of the best remaining picks is a college or HS catcher (preferably college).
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#23 Mike Sixel

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Posted 04 June 2018 - 10:10 AM

We did that in 2009 and ended up passing on Trout for Gibson


I doubt that was how the decision was made. Very much. How many hitters were taken between those two?
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#24 Andrew Thares

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Posted 04 June 2018 - 10:31 AM

 

I doubt that was how the decision was made. Very much. How many hitters were taken between those two?

Two Jared Mitchell and Randal Grichuk


#25 RatherBeGolfing

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Posted 04 June 2018 - 10:35 AM

 

We did that in 2009 and ended up passing on Trout for Gibson

 

Sure, it happens. The bottomline is that it is so hard to find great pitching in today's game while you can piece together a lineup relatively easy. I am a firm believer that you draft as much pitching as possible and finding missing pieces among positions players through trades and FA is the way to go.


#26 nicksaviking

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Posted 04 June 2018 - 10:51 AM

 

I doubt that was how the decision was made. Very much. How many hitters were taken between those two?

 

Only two, but I agree. If anything, the Twins did go BPA in 2009, Kyle Gibson falling due to a relatively minor injury was all the talk. There was more talk about Gibson than there was about Trout at that time.

 

If anything, I'd think picking a toolsy HS outfielder in Aaron Hicks the year prior would have been a more likely reason for passing on another the following year. But, that's not too likely either. I'd bet if we could go back and look when the Twins were on the clock, way more mock drafts had Kyle Gibson sitting as BPA than they did Mike Trout. 

 

Seems to me, the other guy who was seen as a BPA but was sliding was James Paxton who fell due to sign-ability issues. Which were proven right since he opted not to sign.


#27 ashburyjohn

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Posted 04 June 2018 - 11:14 AM

Two Jared Mitchell and Randal Grichuk

And Grichuk was also an Angels pick, so really you could swap him and Trout for discussion purposes. So just Mitchell.

Edited by ashburyjohn, 04 June 2018 - 11:16 AM.
Inadvertently swapped the two players' names

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#28 Tom Froemming

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Posted 04 June 2018 - 12:04 PM

Just updated this to include links to the freshest mock draft out there. Perfect Game just published their final mock, which has the Twins picking Florida's Jackson Kowar. Here's what Andrew wrote about the 6-foot-5 right-hander in his rankings:

 

"Kowar will rely heavily on his fastball and changeup as his curveball can be inconsistent at times. His fastball will sit around 93-95 but he can pump it up to 97 when he needs it. Kowar’s changeup is easily his best pitch. He has the uncanny ability to throw it to both righties and lefties and will produce a lot of swing and miss with the pitch."

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#29 jkcarew

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Posted 04 June 2018 - 12:07 PM

20th overall picks...

 

1993 - Torii Hunter (of)

1994 - Terrence Long (1b)

1995 - David Yocum (p)

1996 - Eric Milton (p)

1997 - Adam Kennedy (ss)

1998 - CC Sabathia (p)

1999 - Vince Faison (of)

2000 - Chris Bootcheck (p)

2001 - Jeremy Sowers (p)

2002 - Denard Span (of)

2003 - Chad Cordero (p)

2004 - Trevor Plouffe (ss)

2005 - Mark Pawelek (p)

2006 - Chris Parmelee (of)

2007 - Chris Withrow (p)

2008 - Josh Fields (p)

2009 - Chad Jenkins (p)

2010 - Kolbrin Vitek (2b)

2011 - Tyler Anderson (p)

2012 - Chris Stratton (p)

2013 - Jonathan Crawford (p)

2014 - Casey Gillaspie (1b)

2015 - Richie Martin (ss)

2016 - Gavin Lux (ss)

2017 - David Peterson (p)

 

Note, the Eric Milton pick was by the Yankees, the other Twins players, were Twins picks.Most of the pitchers were college arms, especially the recent years.Milton and Sabathia were HS arms.

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#30 jkcarew

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Posted 04 June 2018 - 12:16 PM

 

I'll just assume right now that they come out of round 1 with another SS.  

I'll take another SS!About 80% of the position players worth taking this high were shortstops for their HS and/or college teams.They can project to be average to plus defensively at several other positions if/when that time comes.

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#31 Bob Sacamento

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Posted 04 June 2018 - 12:18 PM

 

Just updated this to include links to the freshest mock draft out there. Perfect Game just published their final mock, which has the Twins picking Florida's Jackson Kowar. Here's what Andrew wrote about the 6-foot-5 right-hander in his rankings:

 

"Kowar will rely heavily on his fastball and changeup as his curveball can be inconsistent at times. His fastball will sit around 93-95 but he can pump it up to 97 when he needs it. Kowar’s changeup is easily his best pitch. He has the uncanny ability to throw it to both righties and lefties and will produce a lot of swing and miss with the pitch."

Kowar would be a nice pickup at that point, not too risky, fairly safe and I'm always a sucker for a guy with an advanced changeup, there are plenty of scouts who favor Kowar to Singer (who's likely a Top 10 pick) similar a couple years ago when Florida had AJ Puk and Logan Shore.

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#32 ThejacKmp

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Posted 04 June 2018 - 12:26 PM

 

Sure, it happens. The bottomline is that it is so hard to find great pitching in today's game while you can piece together a lineup relatively easy. I am a firm believer that you draft as much pitching as possible and finding missing pieces among positions players through trades and FA is the way to go.

 

Depends on the market. If you're in LA, NY, Bos etc., I think you have more latitude to bring in free agent pitching and reclamation projects.

 

In a small market like the TC though, you need high-upside ace potential.


#33 MangLitch

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Posted 04 June 2018 - 12:32 PM

Id take a college reliever at 20 and try to turn him into a SP.......

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#34 Bob Sacamento

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Posted 04 June 2018 - 12:34 PM

 

Id take a college reliever at 20 and try to turn him into a SP.......

Is this Terry Ryan's secret account?

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#35 Bob Sacamento

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Posted 04 June 2018 - 12:40 PM

 

We did that in 2009 and ended up passing on Trout for Gibson

Trout had also floated out a 4M signing bonus at the time, so teams just didn't pass on him to pass on him. Luckily the scout, Greg Morhardt, who had watched him repeatedly knew the family as he played minor league ball with Mike's dad, Jeff, in the Twins system in the 80s.

 

And truth be told at the time, Gibson was considered a Top 5 pick before hurting his forearm (stress fracture) at the end of his college season.

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#36 jimbo92107

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Posted 04 June 2018 - 12:44 PM

More seriously, I'd go BPA unless there's an unusually good college catcher available at 20. So BPA is most likely, which will probably turn out to be some HS pitcher.

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#37 Bob Sacamento

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Posted 04 June 2018 - 12:52 PM

 

I'll take another SS!About 80% of the position players worth taking this high were shortstops for their HS and/or college teams.They can project to be average to plus defensively at several other positions if/when that time comes.

Yeah most of your present day MLB 3B and 2B were SS back in HS and even in college.Either outgrowing the position and unable to keep up with the defensive demand.


#38 Bob Sacamento

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Posted 04 June 2018 - 12:56 PM

 

More seriously, I'd go BPA unless there's an unusually good college catcher available at 20. So BPA is most likely, which will probably turn out to be some HS pitcher.

Yeah the only college catcher worthy of a first round pick is Joey Bart and he's not getting past the Top 5.After him, Raleigh from FSU and Koch from Arkansas and Williams from Clemson and I guess JJ Schwarz from Florida if you still count him as a catcher but most of those are probably Day 2 picks.

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#39 birdwatcher

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Posted 04 June 2018 - 12:57 PM

 

20th overall picks...

 

1993 - Torii Hunter (of)

1994 - Terrence Long (1b)

1995 - David Yocum (p)

1996 - Eric Milton (p)

1997 - Adam Kennedy (ss)

1998 - CC Sabathia (p)

1999 - Vince Faison (of)

2000 - Chris Bootcheck (p)

2001 - Jeremy Sowers (p)

2002 - Denard Span (of)

2003 - Chad Cordero (p)

2004 - Trevor Plouffe (ss)

2005 - Mark Pawelek (p)

2006 - Chris Parmelee (of)

2007 - Chris Withrow (p)

2008 - Josh Fields (p)

2009 - Chad Jenkins (p)

2010 - Kolbrin Vitek (2b)

2011 - Tyler Anderson (p)

2012 - Chris Stratton (p)

2013 - Jonathan Crawford (p)

2014 - Casey Gillaspie (1b)

2015 - Richie Martin (ss)

2016 - Gavin Lux (ss)

2017 - David Peterson (p)

 

Note, the Eric Milton pick was by the Yankees, the other Twins players, were Twins picks.Most of the pitchers were college arms, especially the recent years.Milton and Sabathia were HS arms.

 

 

Hmm, looks like about 8 or so of the 25 players listed here amounted to anything at all, and half of those players were selected by the Twins. Kinda throws water on the idea that the team has been worse than average as talent evaluators over time.

 

Maybe 20 is their lucky number.

 

And in Gibson's draft class, of the 49 players selected in the first round, only 9 players have accumulated more WAR than Gibson, and Gibson most likely will shoot past a couple of them as well.

 

The Trout stuff gets old, since most every team passed on a him, some more than once.

 

Gibson, as hard as he can be on the eyes sometimes, has turned out to be a high-quality decision.

Edited by birdwatcher, 04 June 2018 - 12:59 PM.

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#40 old nurse

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Posted 04 June 2018 - 01:00 PM

A strategy that might be effective is to take the best ths player that fell. If they do not sign the pick and money carries over to the next year.Same for the second round pick.That gives the team far more room to play with in 2019. If a college player falls that the team loves that changes things. The rukes of the draft are such that a team has to consider the following year in their planning.

 

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