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Twins top 10 prospects

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#31 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 04 September 2012 - 12:45 PM

Nice work but I don't see how Parmelee can be left off the list over guys who have virtually no professional experience. The guy posted a 1.102 OPS in AAA as a 24 year old. Sure, he's a first baseman but those numbers are still god-like. I don't think he's top five but leaving him off the top ten seems like you're factoring in too much "look at the potential!" instead of "holy crap, this dude is raking".

#32 Shane Wahl

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Posted 04 September 2012 - 12:57 PM

I assumed that Parmelee wasn't in the top 10 simply because of the amount of playing time with the Twins?

#33 Seth Stohs

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Posted 04 September 2012 - 01:22 PM

Nice work but I don't see how Parmelee can be left off the list over guys who have virtually no professional experience. The guy posted a 1.102 OPS in AAA as a 24 year old. Sure, he's a first baseman but those numbers are still god-like. I don't think he's top five but leaving him off the top ten seems like you're factoring in too much "look at the potential!" instead of "holy crap, this dude is raking".


He went over the "prospect/rookie" plate appearances early this year, so he wouldn't be included any more in prospect lists. When I do mine, I go by the MLB Rookie criteria. If they can still win the rookie of the year award, they're a 'prospect.'

#34 old nurse

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Posted 04 September 2012 - 01:33 PM

[quote name='greengoblinrulz'][quote name='old nurse'][quote name='thrylos98'][quote name='old nurse']It will be an interesting year for Sano next year. He has to start to be able to field the ball better and throw with some accuracy. He will also need to cut down on strikeouts and make contact more often.[/QUOTE]

This is one of the weirdest things that has been propagated about him and I do not know where it started...

FACT 1: All power hitters strike out more than non-power hitters (ask Willie)
FACT 2: Sano's BB:K ratio is better than Jim Thome's at the same age

Enough[/QUOTE]

Jim Thome at age 19 played in rookie ball and A+ Combined had an OPS 1.074 , struck out 44 times had a batting average of .340 and only 27 errors. while playing third. Sano OPS .894 SO 142 BA .235, and 42 errors. When you cal something weird, use a better example than comparing Sano to Thome at the same age. Fact, there are big holes in Sano's game that need to be fixed.[/QUOTE]
Thome played in 55gms at 18 & 67gms at age 19. There were 26 errors @ 3B (83gms) those 2 yrs (14e's in 40gms at SS) with 77k 72bb in 505ABs[/QUOTE]

If you want to argue statistics over two years fine. There is still a significant difference between the two players, The number of errors Sano has is way higher. When he connects good things happen. Thome in the majors fielded third at a .952. Again a significant difference from Sano at .881. Would you want a third baseman with a career .881 fielding percentages and an error a week? Sano's batting average dropped significantly between rookie and A ball.

#35 Siehbiscuit

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Posted 04 September 2012 - 01:45 PM

I haven't seen Sano play, like most of us I read a lot of stuff, but haven't analyzed his approach or his actual swing. Most everyone understands that with big-time power he will whiff a lot. My concern/question is truly one of ignorance. What is the reason for the strikeouts? Is it too long of a swing (think Brandon Wood) or is it just his approach or strike-zone discipline? If you don't recall Brandon Wood put up crazy power numbers at all of his stops in the minors but could never adjust to MLB pitchers due to a "long" swing. Is this Sano? Or does Sano just need to mature as guys like Jay Bruce and Jason Heyward have been allowed to (although at the MLB level)?

#36 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 04 September 2012 - 02:02 PM

Nice work but I don't see how Parmelee can be left off the list over guys who have virtually no professional experience. The guy posted a 1.102 OPS in AAA as a 24 year old. Sure, he's a first baseman but those numbers are still god-like. I don't think he's top five but leaving him off the top ten seems like you're factoring in too much "look at the potential!" instead of "holy crap, this dude is raking".


He went over the "prospect/rookie" plate appearances early this year, so he wouldn't be included any more in prospect lists. When I do mine, I go by the MLB Rookie criteria. If they can still win the rookie of the year award, they're a 'prospect.'


That's fair. I guess it all depends on where you draw the line on "prospect". For me, it's a guy who hasn't gotten a real chance to play every day for at least two months. Chris hasn't had a real shot, he's just accumulated ABs here and there.

#37 Mauerzy4Prez

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Posted 04 September 2012 - 02:04 PM

All in all it was a good list. After the top 5 it is kinda of a crapshoot. Hopefully we can bring in a few arms with next years draft (and the haul we take in trading Mornie and Span).


Can you really say this list is a crapshoot with Berrios and Gibson in the 6 and 7 spot? Personally I am extremely excited about Berrios' potential as a starter, and his K/BB ratio is ridiculous! Gibson isn't putting up quite the "video game esque" numbers, but is a legit starter that will be a favorite for a spot in the rotation next year.

#38 Twins Twerp

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Posted 04 September 2012 - 02:39 PM

All in all it was a good list. After the top 5 it is kinda of a crapshoot. Hopefully we can bring in a few arms with next years draft (and the haul we take in trading Mornie and Span).


Can you really say this list is a crapshoot with Berrios and Gibson in the 6 and 7 spot? Personally I am extremely excited about Berrios' potential as a starter, and his K/BB ratio is ridiculous! Gibson isn't putting up quite the "video game esque" numbers, but is a legit starter that will be a favorite for a spot in the rotation next year.


I see where you are coming from. I maybe should have said six as I also like JO. But Gibson is going to be 25 and probably starting out at AAA. He is also going to be 2 years removed from surgery. He could still be a solid pro but I don't see him as a hot prospect anymore.

I am not on high as JO as everyone else seems to be. I still think he could become a great pitcher, but his size scares me. You just don't see a lot of those skinny short type of pitchers starting. I know that some will put out the 'freak' and Trevor Bauer. But the freak is just that, a freak. JO's floor is pretty high too. At the very least, he will be a late inning reliever. When the rankings come out this spring from all the National mags/websites/columnist/etc. I think the reviews on JO will be all over the map. It is nice to have some pitching to look forward to in the future. Go Twins

#39 gunnarthor

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Posted 04 September 2012 - 02:40 PM

I like the top 10 listed here. I would remove Vargas and add Goodrum or Michael (I'm still high on him) but can't quibble with 1-6.

#40 Mauerzy4Prez

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Posted 04 September 2012 - 03:03 PM

[quote name='Twins Twerp'][quote name='Mauerzy4Prez'][quote name='Twins Twerp'] All in all it was a good list. After the top 5 it is kinda of a crapshoot. Hopefully we can bring in a few arms with next years draft (and the haul we take in trading Mornie and Span).[/QUOTE]

Can you really say this list is a crapshoot with Berrios and Gibson in the 6 and 7 spot? Personally I am extremely excited about Berrios' potential as a starter, and his K/BB ratio is ridiculous! Gibson isn't putting up quite the "video game esque" numbers, but is a legit starter that will be a favorite for a spot in the rotation next year.[/QUOTE]

I see where you are coming from. I maybe should have said six as I also like JO. But Gibson is going to be 25 and probably starting out at AAA. He is also going to be 2 years removed from surgery. He could still be a solid pro but I don't see him as a hot prospect anymore.

I am not on high as JO as everyone else seems to be. I still think he could become a great pitcher, but his size scares me. You just don't see a lot of those skinny short type of pitchers starting. I know that some will put out the 'freak' and Trevor Bauer. But the freak is just that, a freak. JO's floor is pretty high too. At the very least, he will be a late inning reliever. When the rankings come out this spring from all the National mags/websites/columnist/etc. I think the reviews on JO will be all over the map. It is nice to have some pitching to look forward to in the future. Go Twins[/QUOTE]

I tend to disagree about Gibson breaking camp in AAA next year. All reports I have heard/read have said to look for him in the rotation next year out of ST, if he can perform well enough in the spring.

Berrios' stature may not be that of the typical starter in the bigs. But I don't think he can be called "short and skinny".... The dude is pretty ripped, and I had once seen that his workout routine is pretty intense. He's listed at 6'0 187lbs online, and is only 18. He may not be getting any taller, but he will certainly gain some more weight in muscle.

#41 John Bonnes

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Posted 04 September 2012 - 03:03 PM

and yes this is Travis


Hey, don't be shy! You can use your full name as your user name so we know who you are!

I think I might put Buxton down a little further. It'll be interesting to see what national evaluators think, but I'd much rather have the four other guys in the top five, just because they have less risk than Buxton. (But I'm not sure others really think like that.)

Also, THE DFC, I agree. I was trying to think of the last time I was this excited about the fruits of the minor league system. I think it might have been 2003, when Morneau was being called up and Mauer and Kubel were looking like future stars.

I just wish there weren't so many outfielders on the list. I continue to hope that the Twins work hard to keep Sano and Rosario in the infield.

#42 Shane Wahl

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Posted 04 September 2012 - 03:10 PM

and yes this is Travis


Hey, don't be shy! You can use your full name as your user name so we know who you are!

I think I might put Buxton down a little further. It'll be interesting to see what national evaluators think, but I'd much rather have the four other guys in the top five, just because they have less risk than Buxton. (But I'm not sure others really think like that.)

Also, THE DFC, I agree. I was trying to think of the last time I was this excited about the fruits of the minor league system. I think it might have been 2003, when Morneau was being called up and Mauer and Kubel were looking like future stars.

I just wish there weren't so many outfielders on the list. I continue to hope that the Twins work hard to keep Sano and Rosario in the infield.


I hope they do not give up on Rosario at second either. I don't think he was *that* bad there in his time. Another off-season of practice there should help. Sano can move to 1B if he has to and not further clog up the OF.

#43 John Bonnes

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Posted 04 September 2012 - 03:14 PM

Anyone know where we can find archived versions of Baseball America's Top 100 overall lists? What I'm really wondering is when the Twins last had so many high upside prospects? I'll be very interested to see how many of these guys are in the top 100 or even the top 50.

#44 Seth Stohs

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Posted 04 September 2012 - 03:35 PM

In about 2002 or so, the Twins had Mauer and Morneau in the top 10 of BA and I think Cuddyer was around 25. Restovich may have been Top 100 that year.

#45 Seth Stohs

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Posted 04 September 2012 - 03:48 PM

BA's Top 100 prospect history: http://www.baseballa...s/all-time.html

2002 - Mauer (7), Morneau (21), Cuddyer (27), Restovich (63), Johnson (85)
2003 - Mauer (4), Morneau (14), Cuddyer (17), Restovich (37),
2004 - Mauer (1), Morneau (16), Durbin (66), Moses (81), Crain (89)
2005 - Mauer (1), Kubel (17), Crain (63), Durbin (70),
2006 - Liriano (6), Kubel (58), Moses (75), Perkins (91), Swarzak (100)
2007 - Garza (21), Perkins (66), Slowey (71), Parmelee (94)
2008 - Guerra (35), Gomez (52), Blackburn (56)
2009 - Revere (59), Ramos (71)
2010 - Hicks (19), Ramos (58), Gibson (61), Sano (94)
2011 - Gibson (34), Hicks (45), Sano (60), Benson (100)

#46 drjim

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Posted 04 September 2012 - 06:17 PM

I think the big year for Sano starts when he starts at New Britain. I see two big steps to be made for position players in the minors. The first is to full-season ball (almost always Beloit, except for poor Levi Michael) and the second is to AA. Sano passed his first test with some room for improvement (to be worked on at Fort Myers, if he starts to improve the K/rate, move him up to AA and begin to figure out where exactly to put him while his bat is tested in AA). I would say much the same for all batters like him. If, on the other hand, a player has plate discipline and a decent k rate already, I want to see more time at Rochester (would apply to Hicks and Herrmann, should have already been applying to Herrmann for the second half of 2012).

Vargas will be one of my guys to watch next year. If he really takes off, the Twins will have a much different look in their system.


I like this way of thinking about it. Putting the first hurdle at full season ball and the second as the jump to AA. I think Hi A can be a decent starting place for a college player, but Michael was pushed pretty aggressively considering the fact he was on the young side for a junior and the fact he was injured for much of last year. Next year will really be the telling year for him.

This also goes to thinking of having no problem with a prospect like Sano spending the whole season at Beloit, but to then be more aggressive the following years (see for example Arcia last year). After one full season it makes sense to be more aggressive when called for.
Papers...business papers.

#47 PseudoSABR

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Posted 04 September 2012 - 11:52 PM

BA's Top 100 prospect history: http://www.baseballa...s/all-time.html

2002 - Mauer (7), Morneau (21), Cuddyer (27), Restovich (63), Johnson (85)
2003 - Mauer (4), Morneau (14), Cuddyer (17), Restovich (37),
2004 - Mauer (1), Morneau (16), Durbin (66), Moses (81), Crain (89)
2005 - Mauer (1), Kubel (17), Crain (63), Durbin (70),
2006 - Liriano (6), Kubel (58), Moses (75), Perkins (91), Swarzak (100)
2007 - Garza (21), Perkins (66), Slowey (71), Parmelee (94)
2008 - Guerra (35), Gomez (52), Blackburn (56)
2009 - Revere (59), Ramos (71)
2010 - Hicks (19), Ramos (58), Gibson (61), Sano (94)
2011 - Gibson (34), Hicks (45), Sano (60), Benson (100)

The farm system has really improved since 2009. Wow.

#48 righty8383

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Posted 05 September 2012 - 12:12 AM

Yeah things really got thin after 2007. Garza, Perkins and Slowey all graduated I think and Parmelee underperformed thus fell off.

BTW, thanks Seth for sharing this. Always interesting to see prospect lists from years ago. It shows how unpredictable prospects can be. However thats the fun of following them.

Lets assume the consensus top 5 in no particular order is Sano, Rosario, Buxton, Arcia and Hicks. If I was to travel 6 or 7 years into the future, and find out that 2 of these guys turned out to be productive/above average big league players, should I call that a success?

#49 Shane Wahl

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Posted 05 September 2012 - 12:43 AM

I think the big year for Sano starts when he starts at New Britain. I see two big steps to be made for position players in the minors. The first is to full-season ball (almost always Beloit, except for poor Levi Michael) and the second is to AA. Sano passed his first test with some room for improvement (to be worked on at Fort Myers, if he starts to improve the K/rate, move him up to AA and begin to figure out where exactly to put him while his bat is tested in AA). I would say much the same for all batters like him. If, on the other hand, a player has plate discipline and a decent k rate already, I want to see more time at Rochester (would apply to Hicks and Herrmann, should have already been applying to Herrmann for the second half of 2012).

Vargas will be one of my guys to watch next year. If he really takes off, the Twins will have a much different look in their system.



I like this way of thinking about it. Putting the first hurdle at full season ball and the second as the jump to AA. I think Hi A can be a decent starting place for a college player, but Michael was pushed pretty aggressively considering the fact he was on the young side for a junior and the fact he was injured for much of last year. Next year will really be the telling year for him.

This also goes to thinking of having no problem with a prospect like Sano spending the whole season at Beloit, but to then be more aggressive the following years (see for example Arcia last year). After one full season it makes sense to be more aggressive when called for.


I am glad you like it, but the Twins do not. They stagnate players all the time in A+ and AA (and pitchers in E-Town and A+). If Sano does very well or better through June for Fort Myers, i will start going crazy if they don't then promote him. There is nothing wrong with playing at AA or AAA for more than year if one has been pushed aggressively before then.

#50 THE DFC

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Posted 05 September 2012 - 11:10 AM

BA's Top 100 prospect history: http://www.baseballa...s/all-time.html

2002 - Mauer (7), Morneau (21), Cuddyer (27), Restovich (63), Johnson (85)
2003 - Mauer (4), Morneau (14), Cuddyer (17), Restovich (37),
2004 - Mauer (1), Morneau (16), Durbin (66), Moses (81), Crain (89)
2005 - Mauer (1), Kubel (17), Crain (63), Durbin (70),
2006 - Liriano (6), Kubel (58), Moses (75), Perkins (91), Swarzak (100)
2007 - Garza (21), Perkins (66), Slowey (71), Parmelee (94)
2008 - Guerra (35), Gomez (52), Blackburn (56)
2009 - Revere (59), Ramos (71)
2010 - Hicks (19), Ramos (58), Gibson (61), Sano (94)
2011 - Gibson (34), Hicks (45), Sano (60), Benson (100)

The farm system has really improved since 2009. Wow.


No kidding. It's not really hard to understand why we've been so brutal in recent years when you look at these lists and couple that with the laughable Billy Smith trade record.

As John mentioned, it'll be interesting to compare around 05 when Morneau and Cuddyer were cutting their teeth in the big leagues and Mauer and Kubel were so highly regarded with Arcia and Hicks in the bigs and Sano, Rosario, Vargas, Buxton, Kepler and Harrison not far behind. I think the 05 group had the higher ceilings with more sure-fire answers, but this upcoming group certainly has more depth and potential upside. Let's hope we can keep Sano, Rosario and Harrison in the infield, as a few have mentioned.

Things would, of course, get really interesting if Berrios turns out to be a full-blown ace in the making. We'll see, but we all have to be very optimistic, albeit cautiously, after his showing in E-town this year.

#51 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 05 September 2012 - 05:54 PM

not to get back on topic, but Arcia should be 1 or 2 in the list right now. Results should be factored in here as well, and a guy like Buxton with lots of tools, shouldn't be rated higher than a guy like Hicks (very similar tools) who has produced results.

#52 gunnarthor

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Posted 05 September 2012 - 06:42 PM

not to get back on topic, but Arcia should be 1 or 2 in the list right now. Results should be factored in here as well, and a guy like Buxton with lots of tools, shouldn't be rated higher than a guy like Hicks (very similar tools) who has produced results.


I'd disagree. Arcia has had great results but his upside (from what I understand) is a solid RFer whereas Sano, Hicks and Buxton could all be all stars or more and none of them have shown reasons to rate them lower at this time.

#53 Badsmerf

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Posted 05 September 2012 - 07:27 PM

not to get back on topic, but Arcia should be 1 or 2 in the list right now. Results should be factored in here as well, and a guy like Buxton with lots of tools, shouldn't be rated higher than a guy like Hicks (very similar tools) who has produced results.


I'd disagree. Arcia has had great results but his upside (from what I understand) is a solid RFer whereas Sano, Hicks and Buxton could all be all stars or more and none of them have shown reasons to rate them lower at this time.

Why can't Arcia be an All-Star? I'm pretty sure if he can't post an OPS over 900 he'll be in the running...

#54 gunnarthor

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Posted 05 September 2012 - 09:17 PM

Why can't Arcia be an All-Star? I'm pretty sure if he can't post an OPS over 900 he'll be in the running...


In a recent chat, Callis wrote:
Jim Callis: Fully recovered from elbow surgery that held him back in 2011, Arcia has looked terrific this year. He continues to show the potential for a solid bat with plus power, and he has made improvements in controlling the strike zone. He could be a solid regular, maybe more.

The ceilings for Sano, Buxton and Hicks all seem to have higher upside.

#55 beckmt

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Posted 06 September 2012 - 12:58 AM

Seems like the Twins have a glut of outfielders, that could help in trading for some pitching. Benson will probably start in Rochester, this is a make or break year for him. Could get back in the top 10 and make the major leagues at some time next year or fall of the map and off the front line prospect list.
Twins seem to start most of the top end propects from Elizebethon at Beloit and move them up if warrented. I am hoping the twins move several of the Beliot stars to New Britian. Fr Myers numbers seem to be off in the pitchers favor for most players.

#56 Shane Wahl

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Posted 06 September 2012 - 01:13 AM

Seems like the Twins have a glut of outfielders, that could help in trading for some pitching. Benson will probably start in Rochester, this is a make or break year for him. Could get back in the top 10 and make the major leagues at some time next year or fall of the map and off the front line prospect list.
Twins seem to start most of the top end propects from Elizebethon at Beloit and move them up if warrented. I am hoping the twins move several of the Beliot stars to New Britian. Fr Myers numbers seem to be off in the pitchers favor for most players.


Yeah, there are over 20+ potential OF prospects. I think guys like Bigley, Pimentel, Ortiz, and Morales can be added in to trade packages to make them more appealing (for instance, a Morneau, Swarzak, Ortiz package might be appealing to teams who have SP depth).

#57 Thrylos

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Posted 06 September 2012 - 04:08 AM

Yeah, there are over 20+ potential OF prospects. I think guys like Bigley, Pimentel, Ortiz, and Morales can be added in to trade packages to make them more appealing (for instance, a Morneau, Swarzak, Ortiz package might be appealing to teams who have SP depth).


I think that Ortiz and Morales would be subject to the AAA part of the rule 5 draft and Bigley to the MLB part of the same draft this season so a team can have them for practically nothing :)

On the other hand, the Twins should deal from a strength. Too many OFs: Arcia, Hicks, Kepler, Buxton, Benson etc (Revere, Parmelee, Sano/Harrison) equals a bottleneck. So the Twins should deal some. And the higher they deal the better the return. I would have zero problem is they deal Arcia or Hicks (but not both) for an equally rated SP prospect. Buxton cannot be traded, Kepler is about to shoot really high in value and Benson dropped. The Twins have to sell high. Point in case Angel Morales. Few seasons ago he was a top prospect, now... They missed the window of opportunity.
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#58 Badsmerf

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Posted 06 September 2012 - 05:40 AM

Why can't Arcia be an All-Star? I'm pretty sure if he can't post an OPS over 900 he'll be in the running...


In a recent chat, Callis wrote:
Jim Callis: Fully recovered from elbow surgery that held him back in 2011, Arcia has looked terrific this year. He continues to show the potential for a solid bat with plus power, and he has made improvements in controlling the strike zone. He could be a solid regular, maybe more.

The ceilings for Sano, Buxton and Hicks all seem to have higher upside.

I see your point, but at the same time you are selling what Arcia did this year too low. Sano has the chance to not just be an All-Star, but a special player. Buxton is far too young and inexperienced to rank above Arcia at this point and Hicks is 1.5 years older than Arcia and finally put up a good season..... but it still wasn't as good as Arcia's.

#59 TRex

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Posted 06 September 2012 - 07:42 AM

The MLB is not a Roto-league... having outstanding CF defensive skills AND plus base running ability counts (IMHO even more than plus hitting because they do not go through slumps). I am not saying Arcia is a terrible defender, but he is no better than an average corner outfielder and reports indicate that he is a below average runner (but not a base clogger).

All-in-all, this is a much better debate to have than 5(?) years ago when we were discussing whether Angel Morales' monster Appy League numbers would hold up despite his very high strikeout rate.

#60 Steve Lein

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Posted 06 September 2012 - 09:59 AM

Like the list, though I'd have Benson in there somewhere over Vargas. Ya, he put up some big numbers in a short sample, but he's a DH.

I also like the optimism about Sano sticking at 3B. I really really really hope that can happen, but I'd bet $$ he's in RF when he debuts with the Twins.

Scouting Report: Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 40, Speed: 40. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but can sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)