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Article: May Day is Coming for the Twins

minnesota twins trevor may lance lynn ervin santana
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#21 Thrylos

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 09:18 AM

A couple of May videos regarding his performance at Rochester last night:

 

 

Edited by Thrylos, 18 May 2018 - 09:18 AM.

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#22 ashbury

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 09:55 AM

A couple of May videos regarding his performance at Rochester last night:

Nice video of the strikeouts. I'm not sure any two of those strike-three pitches were the same. Batters have a lot to think about.

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#23 strumdatjaguar

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 10:06 AM

Twins need to keep Lance Lynn a bit longer, 2 or 3 more starts, to see if he can regain his form. Is May out of options or can the Twins leave him at AAA?


#24 JaleelWhite FanClub

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 10:39 AM

I wouldn't put it past the Twins to try Lynn out of the bullpen. That's where he started his MLB career, and they've shown a recent willingness to shift starters to the pen (ex: Duffey, May, Hughes). Plus, since he's only on a 1-yr deal, so I doubt fans would gripe too much about one of their free agents moving to a diminished role.


#25 joefish

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 10:47 AM

Trading for a catcher with a bat sounds like a good idea. Right after we sift through the extra arms and settle on the starting rotation and the remaining bullpen moves.

#26 ThejacKmp

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 10:51 AM

 

I wouldn't put it past the Twins to try Lynn out of the bullpen. That's where he started his MLB career, and they've shown a recent willingness to shift starters to the pen (ex: Duffey, May, Hughes). Plus, since he's only on a 1-yr deal, so I doubt fans would gripe too much about one of their free agents moving to a diminished role.

 

Would he accept it? He's going to want to start to build value for his next contract. Going to the pen would hurt him financially. Then again, pitching like he is would too so maybe he'd go for it?


#27 Dantes929

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 12:49 PM

 

Would he accept it? He's going to want to start to build value for his next contract. Going to the pen would hurt him financially. Then again, pitching like he is would too so maybe he'd go for it?

Ok, I get that he doesn't have to accept demotion to the minors to work on his stuff even though that is kind of crazy when you think about it. Being demoted to the bullpen because you are 0-5 against major league teams and 1-0 against the White Sox should not contemplate whether you would be accepting of it.I hope he turns it around with the Twins but I don't want it to cost more games while he is trying to do so. 

 

I am really looking forward to May helping the Twins in whichever role.I think he needs more time in the minors though to make sure he has his command and stuff back.

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#28 spycake

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 02:32 PM

 

Mike Pelfrey's first 11 starts that year: 8-3 with a 2.28 ERA and a .654 opponent OPS. It didn't start out a bad decision. People forget it because Duffey was the story at the end of that year but Pelfrey carried the Twins through the first half of the season.

 

And then the wheels came off.

I think the poster was referring to the July 2015 decision, to keep Pelf in the rotation and bump May to the pen. The magic had worn off Pelfrey by then, season ERA up to 3.94.

 

Meanwhile May had a close ERA and much better FIP/xFIP, and was actually pitching 6-7 innings more consistently at that point too.

 

You were probably thinking of the decision coming out of spring training, although thanks to Nolasco's injury, May still joined the rotation on the second turn.

 

And sure enough, after the July decision, Pelfrey posted a 4.66 ERA the rest of the season, and actually got skipped in the rotation during our September pennant race. Probably wouldn't have made our playoff roster, had we reached the postseason.

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#29 Thrylos

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 03:40 PM

 

Is May out of options or can the Twins leave him at AAA?

 

He has one option left.

 

Regardless the Twins should go with the pitchers who give them the higher probability to win.

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#30 laloesch

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Posted 18 May 2018 - 07:00 PM

So two more Rochester starts before they reassess.If Lynn has two more bad starts do the Twins slot May in and demote Lynn to the pen?Sounds like Santana is a mid June option at the earliest.Maybe they give Gonsalves a shot?This could get real interesting. 

 

I was excited about the Lynn signing but now i'm glad they only have him on a one year deal.My thoughts are keep Lynn on a short leash.If he can't pull it together in these next two starts i think a demotion to the pen is in order.We just have two many options now to put up with this.

 

Edit: meanwhile Gibson is getting pummeled by the Brewers.

Edited by laloesch, 18 May 2018 - 07:03 PM.

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#31 yarnivek1972

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Posted 19 May 2018 - 06:15 AM


Command and control have both evaded May at times, and his 3.6 BB/9 during his last full season with the Twins would be less than ideal out of the rotation.

While Lance Lynn has been nothing short of a train wreck, it’s pretty difficult to cast aside a career 3.53 ERA and 8.5 K/9 because of eight starts in a new uniform. Minnesota is going to pull out all of the stops to get that figured out, but putting May in that spot doesn’t jump off the page as being the right answer.

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Lynn’s 7.0 BB per 9 IP is less than ideal for the rotation as well.

Only 8 starts? That’s 1/4 of the season.
A lot of people like to use the NFL season analogy. If your QB had 3 interceptions per game for the first 4 weeks, he would no longer be your QB.

If the Twins had put a league average starter in those turns, they would probably have a couple more wins. Of course, there is no evidence such a starter was available, but that is on Falvine.

#32 Oxtung

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Posted 19 May 2018 - 08:44 AM

It makes no sense to send May back to AAA at this point. Either he is good enough to make the rotation now, or he needs to move to the bullpen. He isn't young anymore; he is in his prime right now. In addition the Rochester and Chattanooga rosters have a glut of starting pitchers ready to fill in the Twins rotation who are younger and at this point have more long term upside. Gonsalves, Mejia, Jorge, Littel, Slegers, Stewart and Thorpe are both capable and soon are going to need opportunities to show if they belong in MLB. If you send May back to AAA it just clouds the long term plans and wastes one of his prime years. Besides, this bullpen needs as much help as it can get.

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#33 jorgenswest

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Posted 19 May 2018 - 09:06 AM

Lynn’s 7.0 BB per 9 IP is less than ideal for the rotation as well.
Only 8 starts? That’s 1/4 of the season.
A lot of people like to use the NFL season analogy. If your QB had 3 interceptions per game for the first 4 weeks, he would no longer be your QB.
If the Twins had put a league average starter in those turns, they would probably have a couple more wins. Of course, there is no evidence such a starter was available, but that is on Falvine.


I am not sure 8 previous starts is predictive of the next 8 starts. If they were and it was reasonable to expect the same walk rate going forward then he should be removed from the rotation.

It might also be reasonable to expect the walk rate to return to previous norms.

I hope he has a good June and July so they can flip him at the deadline.
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#34 yarnivek1972

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Posted 19 May 2018 - 09:22 AM

I am not sure 8 previous starts is predictive of the next 8 starts. If they were and it was reasonable to expect the same walk rate going forward then he should be removed from the rotation.

It might also be reasonable to expect the walk rate to return to previous norms.

I hope he has a good June and July so they can flip him at the deadline.


Lynn’s career walk rate is 3.5 per 9. Is that somehow less of a concern than May’s 3.6?

If Lynn is still throwing walking practice when May is ready, Trevor should absolutely replace him.

I don’t have any data, but I’ll bet someone a lot smarter than me can look it up. How likelly is it that Lynn’s approach was getting National League hitters to swing at pitches that AL hitters, more patient by virtue of the DH, aren’t? It certainly shouldn’t account for a doubling of his walk rate, but I bet it’s a factor.

The Twins need to find out if Trevor May is part of this team’s future. And if so, in what role. As far as I am concerned, this is a lost season. Too many players underperforming or (like Sano, Polanco, et al) not performing at all. Time to move on IMO. Yes, I am aware if the standings. I’m also aware that third place in a division where the leader is sub .500 means your team is bad and your division stinks.
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#35 nmcowboy

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Posted 19 May 2018 - 09:31 AM

 

Do you think the Twins are ready to cut bait on Hughes and his salary?

We can only hope.........

Regarding May, I don't have a strong opinion on whether he should start or be in the pen, but there is no question in my mind that he should take the roster spot currently being wasted on Hughes.

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#36 jtkoupal

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Posted 19 May 2018 - 03:05 PM

It makes perfect sense to keep May in the bullpen for the sake of having a multi-inning guy down there. 

 

Starters shouldn't be allowed to face the lineup for the third time, so it is necessary to keep multi-inning guys down there.

 

The more effective innings you can get from your bullpen, the less you have to expose your starting rotation, so I like the idea of keeping May down there for insulation. 

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#37 jorgenswest

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Posted 19 May 2018 - 03:45 PM

Lynn’s career walk rate is 3.5 per 9. Is that somehow less of a concern than May’s 3.6?
If Lynn is still throwing walking practice when May is ready, Trevor should absolutely replace him.
I don’t have any data, but I’ll bet someone a lot smarter than me can look it up. How likelly is it that Lynn’s approach was getting National League hitters to swing at pitches that AL hitters, more patient by virtue of the DH, aren’t? It certainly shouldn’t account for a doubling of his walk rate, but I bet it’s a factor.
The Twins need to find out if Trevor May is part of this team’s future. And if so, in what role. As far as I am concerned, this is a lost season. Too many players underperforming or (like Sano, Polanco, et al) not performing at all. Time to move on IMO. Yes, I am aware if the standings. I’m also aware that third place in a division where the leader is sub .500 means your team is bad and your division stinks.


Yes. I keep pitching Lynn. I count on his walk rate to return to his career norm prior to this season and I trade him in July. I start May in AAA with his last option and I ease his workload up. He hasn’t been a starter since June of 2015. The time in AAA will be valuable and it will be much easier to adjust his workload and give him any needed extra rest at that level.

I think we do agree that this roster is not one that can compete with the best of the AL. My plan would be to try to squeeze out the most value I can from the players who will be free agents. It is reasonable that Lynn will perform over his next 8 starts near his career norms. If that happens, the Twins will find a trade partner. The previous 8 starts aren’t a great predictor of the next 8 starts particularly when those previous 8 are not inline with career norms.
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#38 Doctor Wu

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Posted 20 May 2018 - 07:27 AM

And, as someone posted last week, there is also the impending return and Minnesota debut of Michael Pineda sometime this summer. Hope that Santana gets to the mound before that time, but who knows at this point. Like the decision with Trevor May, will the Twins stick Pineda in the bullpen to start with, or give him some starts?


#39 Ted Schwerzler

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Posted 21 May 2018 - 09:24 AM

 

Nothing wrong with your logic here but have to bring up 2 points:

2] He had back issues when pitching out of the pen in 2016, and that has been at least partially attributed to the workload and routine change from being a reliever.

In talking with him, May has suggested that the back issues were something less related to relieving as they were to an actual injury he has since targeted and believes is behind him.

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#40 beckmt

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Posted 21 May 2018 - 09:41 AM

 

In talking with him, May has suggested that the back issues were something less related to relieving as they were to an actual injury he has since targeted and believes is behind him.

If this is the case, put May in the pen and cut Hughes.I know this is painful moneywise, but the division can be taken if we can put on a hot streak.  

Other side of the coin, if this club continues to not preform, trade everything that is not part of the future in June and July.You have 1 1/2 months to figure this out.




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