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Castro out for Season

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#81 Mike Sixel

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Posted 16 May 2018 - 01:18 PM

1) The Twins would overpay for Realmuto. Forget it.
2) Why the heck would the Marlins give up a good, cheap guy they can control until 2021? They can build up the rest of the team without giving up their once-in-a-generation catcher. Every other position will prove much easier to upgrade.


Which position is easier? They're not giving up on one of these out fielders. Or SS, assuming they like Polanco. Or 2b, unless they upgrade from Dozier? Or third base. And not first base this year.

There's always next year, or the next, or maybe by the time I'm Chief's age, I guess....


#82 GP830

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Posted 16 May 2018 - 01:47 PM

The more I dwell on this, the more I'd rather try and get a real defense-first back-up and let Garver flourish. We can use our prospects on acquiring more pressing needs in the next few months. I continue to believe that one or two more big arms in the pen would be necessary, and would override the need for a big name starter. Though I would certainly take an Archer, Nola, and be willing to move a strong starter to the pen. 

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#83 ThejacKmp

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Posted 16 May 2018 - 01:48 PM

 

Which position is easier? They're not giving up on one of these out fielders. Or SS, assuming they like Polanco. Or 2b, unless they upgrade from Dozier? Or third base. And not first base this year.

 

He's talking about the Marlins.

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#84 ThejacKmp

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Posted 16 May 2018 - 01:51 PM

 

1) The Twins would overpay for Realmuto. Forget it.

2) Why the heck would the Marlins give up a good, cheap guy they can control until 2021? They can build up the rest of the team without giving up their once-in-a-generation catcher. Every other position will prove much easier to upgrade.

 

Agreed on #1.

 

For #2, one reason is that Realmuto is very unhappy to be the last guy left on the Marlins. He's asked to be traded several times. He's also unlikey to be this good when the Marlins are good in 3-5 years. He'll be a catcher in his 30s.

 

P.S. "Once in a generation" seems hyperbolic. He's a good catcher, he's not Buster Posey. Or Joe Mauer.

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#85 Mike Sixel

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Posted 16 May 2018 - 01:55 PM

He's talking about the Marlins.


Ha. Yes he is. My bad

There's always next year, or the next, or maybe by the time I'm Chief's age, I guess....


#86 yarnivek1972

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Posted 16 May 2018 - 02:14 PM

Jason Castro is not an elite hitting catcher but people are really falling victim to recency bias here with the slow start. Castro has a career OPS+ of 92. That's pretty solid for a catcher known for his defense.

There's no way there are five Castros sitting in AAA. If there were, they would be in the majors soon.

I think Bobby Wilson is the best argument that Jason Castros don't grow on trees.


Castro has a career OPS + of 108 at Minute Maid Park, which he no longer calls home. It’s also 104 at Target Field, but as mentioned much of that reflects a career year in 2017. Using a little math, I would estimate his OPS + everywhere except Minute Maid to be in the low 80s. And yes, I think players like that are readily available.

My point still remains valid. The Twins shouldn’t be using their assets to trade for a guy that even at his best won’t come close to replacing the offense the Twins were hoping to be getting from Sano and Buxton. Because it’s not enough to move the needle for a team with more holes than your average hunk of swiss cheese. Bigger fish to fry IMO. If the Twins are going to be buyers, they should use their prospects to acquire players that will move the needle. Like a legitimate ace. Or a legitimate closer.

#87 Mike Sixel

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Posted 16 May 2018 - 02:16 PM

Castro has a career OPS + of 108 at Minute Maid Park, which he no longer calls home. It’s also 104 at Target Field, but as mentioned much of that reflects a career year in 2017. Using a little math, I would estimate his OPS + everywhere except Minute Maid to be in the low 80s. And yes, I think players like that are readily available.

My point still remains valid. The Twins shouldn’t be using their assets to trade for a guy that even at his best won’t come close to replacing the offense the Twins were hoping to be getting from Sano and Buxton. Because it’s not enough to move the needle for a team with more holes than your average hunk of swiss cheese. Bigger fish to fry IMO. If the Twins are going to be buyers, they should use their prospects to acquire players that will move the needle. Like a legitimate ace. Or a legitimate closer.


A 3.6 war catcher will help way more than a closer. Way more. And he's not old, and controlled for two and two thirds years.

There's always next year, or the next, or maybe by the time I'm Chief's age, I guess....


#88 Mike Sixel

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Posted 16 May 2018 - 02:31 PM

Castro has a career OPS + of 108 at Minute Maid Park, which he no longer calls home. It’s also 104 at Target Field, but as mentioned much of that reflects a career year in 2017. Using a little math, I would estimate his OPS + everywhere except Minute Maid to be in the low 80s. And yes, I think players like that are readily available.

My point still remains valid. The Twins shouldn’t be using their assets to trade for a guy that even at his best won’t come close to replacing the offense the Twins were hoping to be getting from Sano and Buxton. Because it’s not enough to move the needle for a team with more holes than your average hunk of swiss cheese. Bigger fish to fry IMO. If the Twins are going to be buyers, they should use their prospects to acquire players that will move the needle. Like a legitimate ace. Or a legitimate closer.


You keep typing we are trying to replace Sano with him.... No.... Castro and Garver are replaced. It's a huge step up from them. It's not about Sano and Buxton at all, other than trying to surround them with great players, unlike sitting on Mauer and morneau and not adding talent.

There's always next year, or the next, or maybe by the time I'm Chief's age, I guess....


#89 ThejacKmp

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Posted 16 May 2018 - 02:37 PM

 

Castro has a career OPS + of 108 at Minute Maid Park, which he no longer calls home. It’s also 104 at Target Field, but as mentioned much of that reflects a career year in 2017. Using a little math, I would estimate his OPS + everywhere except Minute Maid to be in the low 80s. And yes, I think players like that are readily available.

My point still remains valid. The Twins shouldn’t be using their assets to trade for a guy that even at his best won’t come close to replacing the offense the Twins were hoping to be getting from Sano and Buxton. Because it’s not enough to move the needle for a team with more holes than your average hunk of swiss cheese. Bigger fish to fry IMO. If the Twins are going to be buyers, they should use their prospects to acquire players that will move the needle. Like a legitimate ace. Or a legitimate closer.

 

I've made the second point all over this board so not disagreement there - the twins should look for a better backup and trust Garver. I vote Lucroy if the price is low. But no way your specific point remains valid.

Go find the five Castros. Actually, find three. You find three third catchers (minors or MLB) who aren't hotshot prospects, hit at Castro's level (to make it easier, let's say 10% better that Castro MLB in AAA and 20% better in AA), and are considered at least average defensively. Find those and your point has teeth. But that's not going to happen. Guys who can hit at Castro's level are at least backup catchers.

 

Your park argument doesn't make much sense:

 

  1. Houston's stadium is #21 in park factor while Target Field is #24. So Castro hitting better at those parks than the others has nothing to do with some inflating park factor. In fact it's impressive he hit better at home since it's harder. Even if the park was a factor, the new guy would also get to hit at Target Field so it wouldn't change anything.
  2. Most players hit better at home than on the road so not sure what the bigger point you're making. There's no rational reason to throw out Castro's home numbers, which are based on a large sample of success.
  3. The Twins won't be finding a catcher they only use on the road so throwing out Jason Castro's home numbers is bizarre at best. His hitting is his overall

Using math doesn't mean that the logic behind it makes sense. Unless I'm missing something.


#90 ThejacKmp

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Posted 16 May 2018 - 02:42 PM

 

A 3.6 war catcher will help way more than a closer. Way more. And he's not old, and controlled for two and two thirds years.

 

But subtract the WAR you lose from Castro/Garver for next year (and to be fair, add what you're giving up in Bobby Wilson!). And then the WAR you could get from Gonsalves and Gordon (and whoever else) in the future.* It's not just adding a 3.6 WAR catcher, it's what you give up. It's easy to say "Go get the best available player" but harder to take the cost into consideration.

 

* We've been talking Gonsalves and Gordon but that could very easily not be enough. The Red Sox, Brewers and several other teams have been listed as Realmuto targets. The Marlins have no incentive to make a trade now when the market may develop further by the deadline - unless you make an offer they can't refuse.


#91 Mike Sixel

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Posted 16 May 2018 - 02:47 PM

And add in the war for the pitcher and replacement for Gordon. You aren't not replacing them either. You are basically arguing, as far as I can tell, never trade top prospects. That's a fine stance that I disagree with, especially when getting a great player under multi year control.

There's always next year, or the next, or maybe by the time I'm Chief's age, I guess....


#92 yarnivek1972

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Posted 16 May 2018 - 04:59 PM

But is a 3.6 WAR catcher going to be enough if the Twins don’t get 5-6 WAR each out of Sano and Buxton?

I don’t think it is. Too many bigger holes.

#93 Vanimal46

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Posted 16 May 2018 - 05:21 PM

I'm probably in the minority here in that I would trade Gordon and Gonsalves for Realmuto.
I'd be much obliged if someone could post a poll regarding this (or something similar). I'd like to know what people would be willing to give up.


That's probably the offer I would agree to give up. I'm just not that urgent to do it without seeing how Garver does first.

Unless Garver is the culprit costing the team wins let's see what he can do over his next 200 PAs and assess the situation in late June.

#94 Mike Sixel

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Posted 16 May 2018 - 05:25 PM

 

But is a 3.6 WAR catcher going to be enough if the Twins don’t get 5-6 WAR each out of Sano and Buxton?

I don’t think it is. Too many bigger holes.

 

Of course not....but he's a 2+ year "fix", not a one year rental. If you never add players until the last minute, you'll never add players. How would you fix the holes, without making any trades, and not signing long term free agents? Because no team is built only through the draft.

 

Do people only want ot make trades if it is the LAST PIECE?

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There's always next year, or the next, or maybe by the time I'm Chief's age, I guess....


#95 mudcat14

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Posted 16 May 2018 - 08:29 PM

Sano for Realmuto & Barraclough.Tired of Miguel's health issues, which are almost exclusively due to his failure to be in shape. 

"Hey!You F**ked Up.You trusted us." - Otter to Flounder in 'Animal House'


#96 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 16 May 2018 - 08:43 PM

Sano for Realmuto & Barraclough. Tired of Miguel's health issues, which are almost exclusively due to his failure to be in shape.


Marlins are in a full tear down and rebuild. Not sure why they'd have any interest in Sano.

#97 Rosterman

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Posted 16 May 2018 - 08:57 PM

I say go with Garver and hope he doesn't get hurt. See if he can be the player. Of course, if he is injured, the position becomes a black hole. We would wish we had Chris Gimenez, John Hicks, or maybe even Drew Butera.

 

Good news. Castro to the 60-day, so Twins won't have to drop someone when one of Santana or May returns.

 

Bad news. If Garver shines, we have a $6 million backup catcher next season proving he can still play ball.

 

Go Mitch Garver! Shine, Shine Shine.

 

Question: Who out of all the prospects in the top two levels would you rather see catching abckup, or is Wilson just fine for 20-25 games for the rest of the season.

 

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#98 jorgenswest

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Posted 16 May 2018 - 09:28 PM

Realmuto is one of the best catchers in the game with team control through 2020. They need Lewis or Romero to headline the deal or they need to look elsewhere.

#99 TheLeviathan

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Posted 16 May 2018 - 09:56 PM

 

Realmuto is one of the best catchers in the game with team control through 2020. They need Lewis or Romero to headline the deal or they need to look elsewhere.

 

I guess I haven't felt like all the moves the Marlins have made have demanded that kind of price level.I'm not saying you can get him cheap or anything, but I hope we explore the option.That franchise is a trainwreck, go see if you can claim some of the spoils.


#100 jorgenswest

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Posted 16 May 2018 - 10:14 PM

I guess I haven't felt like all the moves the Marlins have made have demanded that kind of price level.I'm not saying you can get him cheap or anything, but I hope we explore the option.That franchise is a trainwreck, go see if you can claim some of the spoils.


I am certain every team would agree.

I am all in if Gordon, Gonsalves or Sano headline the trade. If that level would get the trade done, he would have been moved by now. The Marlins will get a better headliner in the trade.