Lynn getting hammered like this is not surprising, all he throws is FB (2 seam, 4 seam) coming in at 91 to 93/94, occasional CB. Hitters are just teeing up on him. Lynn's limited arsenal seems opposite to Twins preaching to prospects they must have 3 or 4 pitches (all mastered) before they come up, I.e. Gonsalves.
But it's not like that's anything new this year. That's who he's been from the get-go and he's got several years of being a solid MLB starter under his belt.
In fact, he's actually throwing a bit harder this year than last, but the control has gone out the window. I was hoping his last start signaled a turning point. Guess not.
I’m now a bit skeptical about WPA. How is Garver so high for basically one single, when Rosario doesn’t make the list after being solely responsible for 40% of the team’s runs? I know the stat looks at probable outcomes at the time the plays are made, but looking at it in retrospect, Garver doesn’t get up with a chance to tie without Rosie’s homers. Shouldn’t the stat take that into account?
It's a context-only stat. Rosario's second homer only decreased the Angels' win expectancy from 92.8% to 84.0%. That Garver single sunk it from 72.1% to 31.4%. The leverage index on Rosario's homers were 0.33 and 1.48. On Garver's single it was 6.11.
A couple key things to keep in mind are that Garver's hit also advanced a runner to third with only one out and that Rosario had some negative WPA outcomes from earlier in the game.
Rosario's biggest plate appearance in terms of leverage index came in the third inning. Rosie was up with two down and the bases loaded. He flied out, which counted as -.069 WPA for him.