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Article: MIN 5, LAA 4: Rally Rosie

eddie rosario mitch garver brian dozier taylor rogers fernando rodney
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#21 Tom Froemming

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Posted 12 May 2018 - 08:44 AM

 

Lynn getting hammered like this is not surprising, all he throws is FB (2 seam, 4 seam) coming in at 91 to 93/94, occasional CB. Hitters are just teeing up on him. Lynn's limited arsenal seems opposite to Twins preaching to prospects they must have 3 or 4 pitches (all mastered) before they come up, I.e. Gonsalves.

But it's not like that's anything new this year. That's who he's been from the get-go and he's got several years of being a solid MLB starter under his belt.

 

In fact, he's actually throwing a bit harder this year than last, but the control has gone out the window. I was hoping his last start signaled a turning point. Guess not.

 

I’m now a bit skeptical about WPA. How is Garver so high for basically one single, when Rosario doesn’t make the list after being solely responsible for 40% of the team’s runs? I know the stat looks at probable outcomes at the time the plays are made, but looking at it in retrospect, Garver doesn’t get up with a chance to tie without Rosie’s homers. Shouldn’t the stat take that into account?

It's a context-only stat. Rosario's second homer only decreased the Angels' win expectancy from 92.8% to 84.0%. That Garver single sunk it from 72.1% to 31.4%. The leverage index on Rosario's homers were 0.33 and 1.48. On Garver's single it was 6.11.

 

A couple key things to keep in mind are that Garver's hit also advanced a runner to third with only one out and that Rosario had some negative WPA outcomes from earlier in the game.

 

Rosario's biggest plate appearance in terms of leverage index came in the third inning. Rosie was up with two down and the bases loaded. He flied out, which counted as -.069 WPA for him.

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#22 BoofBonser

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Posted 12 May 2018 - 09:01 AM

 

Waaaaht! I hang with the GF for 5 minutes!

Hahaha same here
Fell asleep in the 6th inning, woke up and the Twins had won


#23 MN_ExPat

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Posted 12 May 2018 - 10:43 AM

 

But it's not like that's anything new this year. That's who he's been from the get-go and he's got several years of being a solid MLB starter under his belt.

 

In fact, he's actually throwing a bit harder this year than last, but the control has gone out the window. I was hoping his last start signaled a turning point. Guess not.

I can't say with anything approaching a coherent or rational thought what the FOs thoughts and concerns may be about Lynn (if any), but watching the game last night, he just looked "off". I started thinking about it (I know... painful thought) and it reminded me of Morrison, that first month. Then when I read your post that he was actually throwing harder than last year, it really tied in with that.   

 

Lynn just seems like he's pressing too much. Like he's trying to get a K on every pitch and putting max effort into everything... he's just not "looking" that smooth in his delivery. I see the same thing in my son when he pitches and he tries to get something "extra" on his FB (his elbow drops and his mechanics get out of sync causing his arm to be late and his front shoulder opening up too soon) causing... you guessed it, a lack of command of the location.

 

So in short... will he pull out of it? Most likely, his track record indicates he will stabilize at some point. When? That is the million dollar question, and is really between him and God, so here's hoping that he buckles down sooner rather than later. While it is disheartening to see him struggle, I will continue to hold faith. And in end that it is not enough, baseball is a cruel and fickle mistress and next man up.


#24 nater79a

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Posted 12 May 2018 - 12:05 PM

Anybody else have that sinking feeling that Dozier getting caught in that delayed steal was going to bite us in the butt? Right before Rosie's first HR.Then when Rosie hit his 2nd in the 9th inning to pull within one. Uff da,,,good thing they kept the rally going!


#25 VATwinsFan

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Posted 12 May 2018 - 12:21 PM

I always go to sleep with a sense of dread during West Coast trips but find myself waking up happy more often than not after seeing the game results.

 

 

Edited by VATwinsFan, 12 May 2018 - 12:21 PM.


#26 Shaitan

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Posted 12 May 2018 - 12:22 PM

Both catchers with big at bats? Gardy would definitely start 'em both today. 

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#27 slash129

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Posted 12 May 2018 - 05:47 PM

 

If Twins really want to win, they put Lynn in the BP and call up Gonsalves.Unless the FO just does not want to admit an error we have to look at performance and Lynn does not have it. 7.34 ERA, -0.5 WAR - it is now seven games and that is a good sample for a pitcher.25 BB - 36 K.   

 

It is time we see if we have a better pitcher in AAA.  

 

Buxton and his 4 Ks in two games is not struggling, he is flailing.He is lost at the plate and so we lose his defense in the ninth.That is not good, especially since we have not called up a good defensive OF for the bench. 

 

Lol ... Apparently, you didn't see Gonsalves' line last time out.It made Lynn look like a relative All-Star.

 

What's going to happen when Gonsalves does get called up and has a couple bad outings in a row?Will you give him a longer leash than Buxton's two games back without a rehab gig? Or, will you start entreating the FO to call up Clark Beeker and kick Gonsalves to the curb?


#28 gocgo

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Posted 12 May 2018 - 07:46 PM

I ended up watching the game while I was working.Had it on first in the background and then got hooked.I'll say this.Molly gets criticized a lot for his lineups and decisions, but he coached a great game last night.

Mind your own biscuits and life will be gravy.


#29 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 12 May 2018 - 08:44 PM

Anybody else have that sinking feeling that Dozier getting caught in that delayed steal was going to bite us in the butt? Right before Rosie's first HR. Then when Rosie hit his 2nd in the 9th inning to pull within one. Uff da,,,good thing they kept the rally going!

I liked the attempted steal. It was a breaking ball in the dirt. Dozier saw it going into the dirt and challenged the catcher. It took a good throw to beat him.

That’s a risk I want to see a baserunner take every time, it just didn’t work out.
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#30 h2oface

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Posted 13 May 2018 - 03:23 AM

 

I’m optimistic the fielding will improve behind him to reduce the BABIP and the HR/9 will normalize a bit. At least he’d be a solid number 5 rather than a weak number 5...

 

I think the Twins are currently 10th or 11th out of 15 American League clubs in fielding right now.... surely something that was not expected. 

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#31 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 13 May 2018 - 07:43 AM

I think the Twins are currently 10th or 11th out of 15 American League clubs in fielding right now.... surely something that was not expected.

It shouldn’t be that surprising, really. Buxton was out and Escobar played short for awhile. It’s hurt the team defensively to lose Polanco and then Buxton.
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