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Article: Top Twins Prospects Are Performing

royce lewis fernando romero stephen gonsalves nick gordon alex kirilloff
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#21 Doctor Wu

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Posted 10 May 2018 - 06:43 AM

I concur with everyone else: great summary, Seth. I was surprised a bit by this part you wrote about Rooker:

 

As a 23-year-old, he is one of the youngest players on the Lookouts roster.

 

Is that really so young for a AA player? Seems like most top prospects at that age would already be in AAA. Or am I totally off base? What would you say is the average age on the Lookouts roster this year?

 

 


#22 Seth Stohs

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Posted 10 May 2018 - 09:56 AM

 

I concur with everyone else: great summary, Seth. I was surprised a bit by this part you wrote about Rooker:

 

As a 23-year-old, he is one of the youngest players on the Lookouts roster.

 

Is that really so young for a AA player? Seems like most top prospects at that age would already be in AAA. Or am I totally off base? What would you say is the average age on the Lookouts roster this year?

 

Maybe most top prospects that aren't four-year college guys in their first full season of pro ball. 

 

And yes, he was the fourth youngest player on the Lookouts roster at the start of the season. Looking at the current Lookouts Roster, the only players younger than him are Lewis Thorpe, Nick Gordon and Alex Robles. 


#23 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 10 May 2018 - 10:04 AM

Young or old, I've had my concerns about Rooker since day one, even when everyone else was praising his power last year.
His start this year has obviously done nothing to ease those concerns.

I'm obviously not ready to write him off this soon, but I wouldn't have him anywhere near as high as many do.

#24 gunnarthor

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Posted 10 May 2018 - 10:28 AM

 

I'm pretty concerned about Rooker. Some initial struggles wouldn't be an issue but he's being completely dominated by AA pitching in every possible respect. He really looks like a guy that's been exposed, and while I expect him to make some adjustments, I think it bodes ill for his potential at the highest level.

I think it's too early to get concerned. He was a late 1st/early 2nd draft guy for a reason. He's in AA. It might take him the entire season to get there. The SEC is not as good as AA.

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#25 drivlikejehu

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Posted 10 May 2018 - 01:22 PM

 

I think it's too early to get concerned. He was a late 1st/early 2nd draft guy for a reason. He's in AA. It might take him the entire season to get there. The SEC is not as good as AA.

 

It's not that early with respect to plate discipline numbers and batted ball profile. 5% walk rate, 30% K-rate, 1.5 GB/FB . . . those are indescribably bad for an offense-first player. I don't overreact to small sample sizes, but there's just no way around the fact that Rooker's projection has to be revised downward based on what's happened to date.

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#26 gunnarthor

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Posted 10 May 2018 - 02:49 PM

 

It's not that early with respect to plate discipline numbers and batted ball profile. 5% walk rate, 30% K-rate, 1.5 GB/FB . . . those are indescribably bad for an offense-first player. I don't overreact to small sample sizes, but there's just no way around the fact that Rooker's projection has to be revised downward based on what's happened to date.

In his first 19 games (72 PA), he didn't walk once and struck out 33% of the time.

 

In his last ten games, his walk rate has been 13% and his k-rate is 25% in 44 PA. It's just too early to worry. He's making adjustments but we won't see those in his overall line for a bit. It'll take time but he's on progress. It wasn't realistic to expect him to light up AA pitching as soon as he saw it. What's important is if he can make the adjustments. 

 

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#27 Mike Sixel

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Posted 10 May 2018 - 02:52 PM

In his first 19 games (72 PA), he didn't walk once and struck out 33% of the time.

In his last ten games, his walk rate has been 13% and his k-rate is 25% in 44 PA. It's just too early to worry. He's making adjustments but we won't see those in his overall line for a bit. It'll take time but he's on progress. It wasn't realistic to expect him to light up AA pitching as soon as he saw it. What's important is if he can make the adjustments.


Weren't people here predicting some time with the twins this year? And starting next year?

One of the best opening day rosters in years. Now go get 'em.


#28 gunnarthor

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Posted 10 May 2018 - 02:56 PM

 

Weren't people here predicting some time with the twins this year? And starting next year?

Some were. I wasn't.

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#29 Seth Stohs

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Posted 10 May 2018 - 05:50 PM

 

Here is what I am hearing:

 

- He has been playing in EST games for a while now (fact)

- He looks good (fact.)

- The Twins do not want him and Lewis in the same team (hypothesis)

- So they are waiting to promote Lewis to Fort Myers before Javier moves to Cedar Rapids (hypothesis)

 

I was hoping what you were hearing might be right, even though my contacts were telling me pretty much the opposite...

 

Wander Javier is out for the year and is undergoing Tommy John surgery. 

 

http://www.startribu...ason/482335492/

 

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#30 drivlikejehu

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Posted 10 May 2018 - 05:55 PM

Very few impact MLB hitters struggled badly in AA at age 23. Rooker's plate discipline numbers may have improved some lately, but still no power . . . if he doesn't right the ship in dramatic fashion - and soon - it will be a very bad sign.

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#31 Thrylos

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Posted 10 May 2018 - 06:23 PM

 

I was hoping what you were hearing might be right, even though my contacts were telling me pretty much the opposite...

 

Wander Javier is out for the year and is undergoing Tommy John surgery. 

 

http://www.startribu...ason/482335492/

 

Yes this sucks...

 

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#32 Thrylos

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Posted 10 May 2018 - 06:26 PM

Re: Rooker:This season so far has been a learning season for him.Here is a split that describes the best his season:

 

.379/.486/.483 6 BB 7 K (35 PA) when ahead on the count
.108/.108/.135 0 BB 17 K (37 PA)when behind

 

He chases garbage that pitchers are throwing once they get ahead.This is AA.Hugh jump from A+.So he either needs to let it go and not chase junk (strike 3 looking is the same as strike 3 swinging) or start swinging early in the count.

Just a hiccup.Not concerned at all.He will be fine in another month or so.

Edited by Thrylos, 10 May 2018 - 06:28 PM.

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#33 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 10 May 2018 - 09:12 PM

I was hoping what you were hearing might be right, even though my contacts were telling me pretty much the opposite...

Wander Javier is out for the year and is undergoing Tommy John surgery.

http://www.startribu...ason/482335492/


I don't pay as close attention to other teams milb systems, is it normal for an organization to have 3 top position player prospects need TJ surgery?
This is starting to seem like a trend in this system, unfortunately.
Is there something they do differently that is causing this?

#34 Seth Stohs

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Posted 10 May 2018 - 09:44 PM

 

I don't pay as close attention to other teams milb systems, is it normal for an organization to have 3 top position player prospects need TJ surgery?
This is starting to seem like a trend in this system, unfortunately.
Is there something they do differently that is causing this?

 

I don't know... but this one is a non-throwing shoulder surgery... stinks, for sure. 

 

And no, they don't do anything differently. 


#35 DocBauer

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Posted 11 May 2018 - 08:31 PM

In his first 19 games (72 PA), he didn't walk once and struck out 33% of the time.

In his last ten games, his walk rate has been 13% and his k-rate is 25% in 44 PA. It's just too early to worry. He's making adjustments but we won't see those in his overall line for a bit. It'll take time but he's on progress. It wasn't realistic to expect him to light up AA pitching as soon as he saw it. What's important is if he can make the adjustments.


I think this is important. Half a season of high A ball, if that, in his very first pro season, and an immediate jump to AA the next season, and we're worried about a slow start and now showing improvement? Can we give him half a season at least before hitting a panic button?
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#36 Doctor Wu

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Posted 12 May 2018 - 07:45 AM

 

I was hoping what you were hearing might be right, even though my contacts were telling me pretty much the opposite...

 

Wander Javier is out for the year and is undergoing Tommy John surgery. 

 

http://www.startribu...ason/482335492/

Man, how did I miss that news about Wander Javier?! Asleep at the Wheel again! Very sorry to hear that. But hopefully, like Kirilloff, he can come back in another year and start putting up impressive numbers again.


#37 twins1095

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Posted 15 May 2018 - 05:41 AM

 

Baddoo hasn't been swinging and missing as much as you might think.He is an extreme example of the approach that prefers going as deep as possible in the count...looking for specific pitches/mistakes.Results in a high rate of walks, and also strike-outs that may only involve one swinging strike, if that.His OBP is basically 400.So, lets not mess with him radically right now.I think as he continues to progress...basically learns where/when more aggressiveness pays off...we could have a good one with him.

 

And then there's Rooker.While I don't think 23 is young for a AA player that's supposed to be considered a real prospect, I do think it's a huge adjustment to be hitting with the real bat against AA prospects only 11 months removed from SEC play.But forget the strike-outs and (lack of) walks...he's only hit 1 home run in his first 100 plate appearances.That seems really weird.

 

 

I'm worried about Rooker, but the sample size is small and I'm not sure he's been quite as bad as the numbers appear--he was 0-11 with 7 K's his first 3 games, but has been marginally better since then.He's realistically within a couple week hot streak away of salvaging a respectable season.

 

In those 31 games his slash is .240/.280/.670 and his strikeout to walk ratio is 33/6 K/BB.A strikeout a game is a little on the high side, but it feels a lot better than 40 in 34.Further, a 162 game pace for those 31 games would give him a game production projection of about 65 runs - 37 2B - 5 3B - 16 HR - 65 rbi.

 

I'm most concerned about the drop in walk rate, I doubt the power is gone and he's hitting a decent number of extra base hits, but I'm not sure where the approach went.Hopefully he has a big second half.  

 

___________________________________________________________________

 

I like Badoo's approach, I'm generally a fan of that kind of approach.I think there's value in making pitchers work, getting them deep into counts, and getting more opportunities for a mistake instead of swinging at a pitch that isn't the pitch you're looking for when you've got strikes to play with.High strikeout totals can be worrying, but context matters--if the strikeout totals are a result of going deep into counts and he strikes out after 5-6-7 pitches I'm fine with that.More often than not those kind of ABs are leading to a walk, a hitter's pitch to hit, and there's value to making a pitcher throw a lot of pitchers both for your own ability to hit a pitcher, but also for your teammates. So, not all strikeouts are created equal. 

 

I'm wondering where the extra base hit power has gone.For a guy that young and raw I'm not expecting a ton of home runs even if the projection is there to add some as he matures, but it would be nice to see him barrelling more balls and putting them in the gaps.After having 19 2Bs, 5 3Bs, and 4 HRs in just 53 games at Rookie Ball...there's some more there. 

 

He's getting on base a ton 22.6% walk rate and scoring almost a run per game and on pace to steal 40+ bases.Crazy that almost 54% of his plate appearances right now are ending in a strikeout or a walk.I'm sure that will normalize somewhere less to the extremes on both cases, but he's now drawn 82 walks in 118 games (16.6 BB%)--the eye is there.I don't think you can coach a guy out of that really if he likes to take pitches and work counts.

 

Cool player. Excited to see what happens.  




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