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Article: TOR 7, MIN 4: WHAT IS HAPPENING!?!?!?

john curtiss addison reed eddie rosario kyle gibson joe mauer
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#41 Tom Froemming

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Posted 02 May 2018 - 08:18 AM

 

Dear Mr. Froemming: You ask what is happening.

 

Well, how about some of the worst baseball the Twins have ever played?

 

I've heard rumors of the Butch Huskey era of baseball and that it wasn't a very good time to be a Twins fan.

 

However, with the way the Twins are currently playing, Butch Huskey era baseball may actually become a step up.

There's still a lot of season to unfold, but I do honestly feel like this is worse so far. That 2000 Twins team may have had a really bad record, but they had a lot of guys who could catch the ball and there were positive developments that laid the groundwork for the successful years that followed. 

 

Hopefully things turn around, but this team is really hard to watch right now.

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#42 gocgo

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Posted 02 May 2018 - 08:24 AM

What I'm trying to figure out is if we've hit the perfect storm (no pun intended given the spring weather) or whether there is one thing that needs to be addressed.

 

We've had to deal with injuries (Buxton is a key piece of the puzzle), weather (no denying that it was disruptive to practice), poor pitching (either from the starter, the bullpen, or both), bad defense (errors and lack of execution of the basics), bad luck (right now, the borderline calls aren't going our way).

 

Is it just a combination of all of the above?or is it something much bigger?

 

Teamwork is a funny thing.I've watched basketball teams swap out one player for another and you would swear the entire team was swapped out.Teamwork went out the window and the "me first" attitude took over the team.Are the Twins in a similar situation?I'd be curious what the clubhouse chemistry is.

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Mind your own biscuits and life will be gravy.


#43 wsnydes

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Posted 02 May 2018 - 08:36 AM

I've said this before in previous seasons.It's not the losing that bothers me so much.I don't like it, but sometimes your team just isn't as good as the opponent.I can deal with that aspect.It's how they lose that bothers me.They shoot themselves in the foot consistently.They leave scoring opportunities go wasted with regularity because they run themselves out of it or they string together poor ABs.They play atrocious defense which only compounds the poor pitching problem.  

 

It's one thing to simply not make enough plays to win.It's quite another to squander the few plays you do make and then top it off with mistake-laden play that even poor teams find a way to capitalize on.Sloppy baseball is unacceptable because it requires little talent.It only requires focus and attention to detail.

 

The Blue Jays have exposed the Twins defense.They are forcing them to make decisions on the fly because they don't believe that they'll make the right play.The Morales steal last night was a perfect example of that.

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"Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." - Meat 


#44 spanman2

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Posted 02 May 2018 - 08:40 AM

 

Pitch the ball......catch the ball.Where is Tom Kelly when you need him.Make the plays that need to be made.I have not been impressed with the effort of our catchers.Especially in the fielding department.Garver has botched some key plays...notably the roller down the line the other night, pick up the ball, tag the runner.He and Castro miss balls with a guy on third that should be caught.Back to the basics....

Agreed...add on to that an ole TK saying 'We will be/are as good as today's starting pitcher and how he performs'...gotta play fundamental baseball.Make the plays that need to be/should be made!Get some timely hitting/run the bases well...do those things along with your comments and you should be a good ball club.

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I WAS TOLD I WOULD NEVER MAKE IT BECAUSE I AM TOO SHORT. WELL, I'M STILL TOO SHORT. IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT YOUR HEIGHT IS. IT'S WHAT'S IN YOUR HEART.

KIRBY PUCKETT

#45 spycake

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Posted 02 May 2018 - 08:42 AM

 

In short, here is what we are seeing:

 

1. Bullpen is being asked to pitch too much and it's taxing them. That is the fault of both the starting rotation and the fact that there hasn't been a long reliever out there until now.

2. Guys that shouldn't be starting are getting too much playing time because of injuries (i.e. Grossman, Adrianza, LaMarre). These are guys that play better when used less. You play them this much, you see why they aren't starters.

3. Underperformances by a number of key players. To name a few: Dozier, Castro, Rosario, Morrison, the whole pitching staff. These guys can't be this bad all year.

1. Twins relievers have the 8th fewest innings pitched in MLB so far this season. Mostly a function of having the fewest games played, but even on a per-game basis, we are within 1 out of MLB average relief innings per game (MLB average is 3.2 IP, Twins at 4 IP). I'd guess we've used more total relievers than average too, so the workload has been spread out a bit.

 

Here are the IP ranks of individual Twins relievers:

14. Pressly

37. Reed

92. Hildenberger

156. Rogers

185. Duke

204. Rodney

240. Duffey

248. Moya

265. Busenitz

275. Kinley

282. Magill

 

2. Grossman started 75% of the time for the Twins in 2016 in 2017. He has only started 56% of the games in 2018 so far. I don't think over-exposure is the cause of his 2018 struggles. Adrianza has indeed started more in 2018, but he's only 2 starts ahead of his 2017 rate so far. LaMarre has only started 6 games all year. It's not like previous Twins teams haven't seen marginal guys get similar playing time (don't forget, the 2017 team had Danny Santana to open the season, later had mediocre performances from rookies Garver and Granite, and even had Adrianza start 9 games in the outfield).

 

3. Castro and Morrison are definitely under-performing, but Dozier and Rosario are within 10% of their career OPS+ figures. On the pitching side, Lynn and Rogers are really the only regulars who are under-performing expectations.

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#46 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 02 May 2018 - 08:44 AM

Also, short start expected today. Gibby has pitched well and I thought last night was a good night to let him pitch into deep, unknown territory. Of course 5 innings is the new 6 (quality start last night) and 90 pitches is the new 100, so there was pretty much no chance of that happening.
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#47 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 02 May 2018 - 08:49 AM

1. Twins relievers have the 8th fewest innings pitched in MLB so far this season. Mostly a function of having the fewest games played, but even on a per-game basis, we are within 1 out of MLB average relief innings per game (MLB average is 3.2 IP, Twins at 4 IP). I'd guess we've used more total relievers than average too, so the workload has been spread out a bit.

nit pick-

We lost 7 straight road games without pitching a ninth inning (although I think one of those games went extras)
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#48 USAFChief

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Posted 02 May 2018 - 08:52 AM

nit pick-

We lost 7 straight road games without pitching a ninth inning (although I think one of those games went extras)


And we played a 16 inning game.

It evens out.

More innings from the starters isn't realistic, not is it the primary problem.
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I am not the paranoid you're looking for.


#49 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 02 May 2018 - 09:02 AM

And we played a 16 inning game.

And I bet other teams have too. It evens out.

#50 SirLoin

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Posted 02 May 2018 - 09:07 AM

 

Going to be in trouble tonight out of the pen
Essentially have 2 1/4 arms available....
Hildy, Rogers and Duke

 

Don't we have Hughes in the bullpen now?That gets us to at least 2 3/8 arms....

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#51 spycake

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Posted 02 May 2018 - 09:08 AM

 

nit pick-

We lost 7 straight road games without pitching a ninth inning (although I think one of those games went extras)

I was talking about absolute reliever usage relative to league, rather than our team's relative reliever vs starter inning distribution.

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#52 birddog

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Posted 02 May 2018 - 09:21 AM

Twins starters are exhausted after 5 or 6 innings of 90 pitches. If Moli doesn't want to throw them out there for more, send them to the bullpen to get some more throwing in to condition their arm (and head) that they can go longer.

 

Other than Mauer, Twins are undisciplined free swingers and it is killing us now as pitchers know they don't have to throw strikes to get us out. We'll get ourselves out--especially with runners on base. Twins only have to straighten out their pitching, hitting, defense, fundamentals, and most importantly their heads. Dr. Phil are you busy?

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#53 Mike Sixel

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Posted 02 May 2018 - 09:23 AM

I don't think people realize how few pitchers finish six innings anymore, and how the game has changed. I know I struggled with this, until a couple years ago. But, the world has changed. Starters don't throw as many innings as we think. Like it or not, it just is.
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One of the best opening day rosters in years. Now go get 'em.


#54 birddog

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Posted 02 May 2018 - 09:30 AM

And for teams who have a bullpen that works well.

 


#55 Blake

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Posted 02 May 2018 - 09:39 AM

I think we need to come up with a version of MST3K for calling the Twins games.

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#56 Tom Froemming

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Posted 02 May 2018 - 09:45 AM

2017 Twins 

3.25 runs per game through the first five innings.

 

2018 Twins

2.16 runs per game through the first five innings.

 

It's a lot easier to pitch, and especially conserve pitches, when you have a lead.

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#57 joefish

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Posted 02 May 2018 - 09:48 AM

Go T'ins.

#58 wsnydes

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Posted 02 May 2018 - 09:59 AM

 

2017 Twins 

3.25 runs per game through the first five innings.

 

2018 Twins

2.16 runs per game through the first five innings.

 

It's a lot easier to pitch, and especially conserve pitches, when you have a lead.

Out of curiosity, do you know what the figures are for the last 4 innings?I know that it's typically tougher to score on a bullpen (unless you're playing the Twins), but this team doesn't seem to do a thing against opposing bullpens.Curious if that notion is based in fact or just an ill conceived notion.

"Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." - Meat 


#59 Tom Froemming

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Posted 02 May 2018 - 10:16 AM

 

Out of curiosity, do you know what the figures are for the last 4 innings?I know that it's typically tougher to score on a bullpen (unless you're playing the Twins), but this team doesn't seem to do a thing against opposing bullpens.Curious if that notion is based in fact or just an ill conceived notion.

2017 runs scored innings 6-9: 1.83

2018 runs scored innings 6-9: 1.90

 

I believe the overall league average for runs scored innings 6-9 so far in 2018 is 1.95 per game.

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#60 wsnydes

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Posted 02 May 2018 - 10:24 AM

 

2017 runs scored innings 6-9: 1.83

2018 runs scored innings 6-9: 1.90

 

I believe the overall league average for runs scored innings 6-9 so far in 2018 is 1.95 per game.

Interesting.Interesting to see the variance in the splits too.Thanks for the info!

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"Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." - Meat 




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