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#1 Guest_USAFChief_*

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Posted 28 August 2012 - 11:05 PM

Official attendance Tuesday night at TF: 29854.

I believe that's the first time in stadium history the crowd dipped below 30,000.

Ruh-roh.

#2 jokin

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Posted 28 August 2012 - 11:15 PM

Official attendance Tuesday night at TF: 29854.

I believe that's the first time in stadium history the crowd dipped below 30,000.

Ruh-roh.


I just posted on that in the game thread, Chief. I brought this issue up in the previous thread about what the payroll will be next year, it's looking more and more like another cut is coming for 2013. I projected a drastic fall-off in September attendance, guess it's coming a few days early.

In the other thread I proposed starting a pool to guess when the first sub-20000 game occurs. Do they play KC at home in September?

#3 buckninetyone

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Posted 29 August 2012 - 12:14 AM

i'd go if it weren't for my quadlateral hypothyroidism of the fourth metatarsal :(

#4 Top Gun

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Posted 29 August 2012 - 12:29 AM

According to Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com, the Twins have placed Joe Mauer on revocable waivers.It's common practice in August for teams to place their players on waivers, so this isn't necessarily significant. If Mauer is claimed, the Twins could pursue a trade, assign his remaining contract to the claiming team or simply pull him back from waivers. Rosenthal speculates that the Red Sox could be a potential fit for Mauer at some point, but it would still be a surprise if he's moved. Mauer still has six years and $138 million left on his contract with Minnesota. Source: FOXSports.com

#5 StormJH1

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Posted 29 August 2012 - 05:30 AM

I don't think we'll see sub-20k attendance this year, but of they're like this again next year, it'll happen

EDIT: Discussion on another thread led me to clarify this - there will be a few games where we'll see sub-20k attendance, but attendance overall will be fine. My years of watching this team in the Dome and seeing decent attendance in that horrible facility convinced me that this is a pretty reliable baseball market, and they have a great facility now.

Edited by StormJH1, 29 August 2012 - 10:17 AM.


#6 IdahoPilgrim

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Posted 29 August 2012 - 06:26 AM

I just posted on that in the game thread, Chief. I brought this issue up in the previous thread about what the payroll will be next year, it's looking more and more like another cut is coming for 2013. I projected a drastic fall-off in September attendance, guess it's coming a few days early.

In the other thread I proposed starting a pool to guess when the first sub-20000 game occurs. Do they play KC at home in September?


Do you have some sort of objective evidence for this? I have yet to see any, one way or another.

#7 adjacent

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Posted 29 August 2012 - 06:44 AM

What bring us to tonight's word:new stadiums. For years we've heard that in order to have good teams, franchises need new stadiums, to increase attendance. Actually, it is all the way around, good teams bring people to stadiums, and justify new facilities. You can have all the flashy new stadium that you want, but if your team is bad, after a couple of years, the stadium is going to be empty. See present Twins, see Gophers football. Vikings, please listen. I only hope that the Twins don't fall in the vicious circle of reducing payroll and poor teams because of reducing attendance, which in turn will reduce the attendance further.

#8 jokin

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Posted 29 August 2012 - 10:08 AM

What bring us to tonight's word:new stadiums. For years we've heard that in order to have good teams, franchises need new stadiums, to increase attendance. Actually, it is all the way around, good teams bring people to stadiums, and justify new facilities. You can have all the flashy new stadium that you want, but if your team is bad, after a couple of years, the stadium is going to be empty. See present Twins, see Gophers football. Vikings, please listen. I only hope that the Twins don't fall in the vicious circle of reducing payroll and poor teams because of reducing attendance, which in turn will reduce the attendance further.


Future Shock

or

Rinse and Repeat (the real Twins mantra)


Case in point regarding "the means to spend" argument which the Twins are in the process of completely blowing up:

The Baltimore Orioles-

on a hot streak,
hottest team in August-playing 16-8 baseball, a .667 clip,
revived from the dead for years on end to competitive,
third best record in the AL,
the best record in one-run games in baseball,
only 3.5 games behind the best team in the league, the Yankees,
playing in one of the best parks in all of baseball- Camden Yards,
playing a first place team in the White Sox- with a Cy Young favorite on the mound, Chris Sale
perfect night for baseball in Baltimore



drew all of 12,841 fans last night.

#9 jokin

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Posted 29 August 2012 - 10:12 AM



I just posted on that in the game thread, Chief. I brought this issue up in the previous thread about what the payroll will be next year, it's looking more and more like another cut is coming for 2013. I projected a drastic fall-off in September attendance, guess it's coming a few days early.

In the other thread I proposed starting a pool to guess when the first sub-20000 game occurs. Do they play KC at home in September?


Do you have some sort of objective evidence for this? I have yet to see any, one way or another.


Yes, the Twins owners and FO statements over the past 12 months have stated that further cuts beyond the 2012 payroll reduction were possible and they have always maintained that payroll would always be based on a certain percentage of revenues. Revenues are clearly down this year and are apparently about to cascade even lower heading into September,

#10 jokin

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Posted 29 August 2012 - 10:16 AM

I don't think we'll see sub-20k attendance this year, but of they're like this again next year, it'll happen


Advance sales might preclude this prediction of the "actual attendance", but I would venture that Wednesday, September 12 vs. the Kansas City Royals might have less than 20000 actually watching the game in person.

#11 Rosterman

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Posted 29 August 2012 - 10:23 AM

The Twins season ticket base will beep the attendance right around 28,000 for the rest of the season.No groups and no walk-up sales will happen. Most SMART people will buy unused stub-hub or grounds tickets for as low as a buck in September than pay full-price at a ticket window to sit high in the third deck, on the ends, in the Family section, or the sunshine of the outfield...where the available tickets thrive.
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#12 StormJH1

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Posted 29 August 2012 - 10:29 AM

I generally agree with jokin that there's a good chance we see more payroll cuts next year. Not like 2010 --> 2011, where it went from $112k to $100k (or thereabouts). But would anybody be stunned if our opening day payroll is $95 million in 2013? $90 million?

I wouldn't be surprised. All you have to do is listen to Terry Ryan talk about a "weak FA market for pitching" (which is garbage) and his general philosophy against long-term deals for pitchers...and put that together with the fact that we don't have a bunch of guys to re-sign, like we did from 2007-09. I think Baker is a wild card for next year, but really, what else are they going to do? If you name a pitcher out there like Annibal Sanchez, and Terry Ryan pulls out of negotiations as soon as the length gets over 3 years...well, some other team is going to offer more years and more money.

Also, I reject the premise that the attendance decline is anything beyond what should have been expected. If you look at attendance history, teams tend to do well in attendance in years following a good year, even if the team isn't good. (Many of the tickets are bought in advance anyway, after all!). If a team is a bad, they'll do poorly unless the team shows signs of life. Add into that the "newness" effect wearing off at the ballpark, and I don't see why this is a surprise. The Twins were horrible in 2011, and horrible again in the start of 2012. And all of the offseason events suggested that: (a) Detroit was the clear favorite in the AL Central; and (B) The Wild Cards were likely to go to teams from either the AL East or AL West (especially with the Rangers and Angels in the same division). If the team was BAD in 2011, and had no expectation of being a realistic contender this year...where were the fans supposed to come from?

#13 StormJH1

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Posted 29 August 2012 - 10:32 AM

The Twins season ticket base will beep the attendance right around 28,000 for the rest of the season.No groups and no walk-up sales will happen. Most SMART people will buy unused stub-hub or grounds tickets for as low as a buck in September than pay full-price at a ticket window to sit high in the third deck, on the ends, in the Family section, or the sunshine of the outfield...where the available tickets thrive.


Hahaha. Props for a clever gardening reference.

I'm out in the sunshine of LF 200 Level quite a bit, though I think those seats are fine for any night game, or even day games in September weather. In the dog days of June and July, though it can be pretty exhausting getting baked out there for 4 hours.

#14 powrwrap

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Posted 29 August 2012 - 11:17 AM

Actually, it is all the way around, good teams bring people to stadiums, and justify new facilities.


This is not working for the Rays.


You can have all the flashy new stadium that you want, but if your team is bad, after a couple of years, the stadium is going to be empty. See present Twins, see Gophers football. Vikings, please listen.


Colorado Rockies, bad team for a couple years, averaging 33,000 a game.
Twins, bad team for a couple years, averaging 35,000 a game.
Mets, bad team for a couple years, averaging 29,000 a game.

Every market is different. There isn't a hard and fast rule you can apply to new stadiums and attendance. As far as stadiums being 'empty' there are only a handful of ballparks that don't sell at least 50% of their seats each season. Typically it is Oakland, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Cleveland, Baltimore.
[FONT=comic sans ms][COLOR=#000000]"Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand." [/COLOR][/FONT]

#15 JB_Iowa

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Posted 29 August 2012 - 11:31 AM

I generally agree with jokin that there's a good chance we see more payroll cuts next year. Not like 2010 --> 2011, where it went from $112k to $100k (or thereabouts). But would anybody be stunned if our opening day payroll is $95 million in 2013? $90 million?


I believe that the opening day payroll will be $92 - $94 million. It will probably go up during the course of the season but I will be pleasantly surprised if it is higher than $94 million on opening day (barring some expensive injury in ST that they have to quickly replace).

#16 JB_Iowa

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Posted 29 August 2012 - 11:34 AM

Actually, it is all the way around, good teams bring people to stadiums, and justify new facilities.


This is not working for the Rays.

...

Every market is different. There isn't a hard and fast rule you can apply to new stadiums and attendance. As far as stadiums being 'empty' there are only a handful of ballparks that don't sell at least 50% of their seats each season. Typically it is Oakland, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Cleveland, Baltimore.


I don't know what to think about Tampa -- sometimes I wonder if they wouldn't have mediocre attendance even if they had a new field (after the 1st year or two). I just wonder if there isn't something else going on in that market -- too many other entertainment options; too much outdoor fun, etc. Which is really too bad because the Rays seem to have a great organization.

#17 jokin

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Posted 29 August 2012 - 11:40 AM

[quote name='powrwrap'][quote name='adjacent'] Actually, it is all the way around, good teams bring people to stadiums, and justify new facilities. [/QUOTE]

This is not working for the Rays.


[QUOTE]You can have all the flashy new stadium that you want, but if your team is bad, after a couple of years, the stadium is going to be empty. See present Twins, see Gophers football. Vikings, please listen.[/QUOTE]

Colorado Rockies, bad team for a couple years, averaging 33,000 a game.
Twins, bad team for a couple years, averaging 35,000 a game.
Mets, bad team for a couple years, averaging 29,000 a game.

Every market is different. There isn't a hard and fast rule you can apply to new stadiums and attendance. As far as stadiums being 'empty' there are only a handful of ballparks that don't sell at least 50% of their seats each season. Typically it is Oakland, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Cleveland, Baltimore.[/QUOTE]

History of Baltimore attendance :

2001: 38.8 (000) Rank overall: 5th
2002: 33.1 10th
2003: 30.3 12th
2004: 34.3 12th
2005: 32.4 14th
2006: 26.6 20th
2007: 27.0 23rd
2008: 25.0 24th
2009: 23.5 21st
2010: 21.7 24th
2011: 21.9 26th

2012: average attendance in August in the thick of the race with the hottest team in baseball- 21.5!

Does anyone else detect a trend? And a cautionary tale for the Twins?

#18 jokin

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Posted 29 August 2012 - 11:42 AM

[quote name='JB_Iowa'][quote name='powrwrap'][quote name='adjacent'] Actually, it is all the way around, good teams bring people to stadiums, and justify new facilities. [/QUOTE]

This is not working for the Rays.

...

Every market is different. There isn't a hard and fast rule you can apply to new stadiums and attendance. As far as stadiums being 'empty' there are only a handful of ballparks that don't sell at least 50% of their seats each season. Typically it is Oakland, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Cleveland, Baltimore.[/QUOTE]

I don't know what to think about Tampa -- sometimes I wonder if they wouldn't have mediocre attendance even if they had a new field (after the 1st year or two). I just wonder if there isn't something else going on in that market -- too many other entertainment options; too much outdoor fun, etc. Which is really too bad because the Rays seem to have a great organization.[/QUOTE]

Demographics, average age in the community is about 79.

#19 Rosterman

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Posted 29 August 2012 - 11:51 AM

[quote name='jokin'][quote name='JB_Iowa'][quote name='powrwrap'][quote name='adjacent'] Actually, it is all the way around, good teams bring people to stadiums, and justify new facilities. [/QUOTE]

This is not working for the Rays.

...

Every market is different. There isn't a hard and fast rule you can apply to new stadiums and attendance. As far as stadiums being 'empty' there are only a handful of ballparks that don't sell at least 50% of their seats each season. Typically it is Oakland, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Cleveland, Baltimore.[/QUOTE]

I don't know what to think about Tampa -- sometimes I wonder if they wouldn't have mediocre attendance even if they had a new field (after the 1st year or two). I just wonder if there isn't something else going on in that market -- too many other entertainment options; too much outdoor fun, etc. Which is really too bad because the Rays seem to have a great organization.[/QUOTE]

Demographics, average age in the community is about 79.[/QUOTE]

They need more ground level seats. No, it is surprising. This should be one of the hottest teams in the market, and the Miami market should also be big. Can't quite figure this out. Lots of people in the general area with disposable income who live there and would like a ncie day in the park rather than spend time at a theme park.
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#20 jokin

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Posted 29 August 2012 - 11:54 AM

[quote name='Rosterman'][quote name='jokin'][quote name='JB_Iowa'][quote name='powrwrap'][quote name='adjacent'] Actually, it is all the way around, good teams bring people to stadiums, and justify new facilities. [/QUOTE]

This is not working for the Rays.

...

Every market is different. There isn't a hard and fast rule you can apply to new stadiums and attendance. As far as stadiums being 'empty' there are only a handful of ballparks that don't sell at least 50% of their seats each season. Typically it is Oakland, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Cleveland, Baltimore.[/QUOTE]

I don't know what to think about Tampa -- sometimes I wonder if they wouldn't have mediocre attendance even if they had a new field (after the 1st year or two). I just wonder if there isn't something else going on in that market -- too many other entertainment options; too much outdoor fun, etc. Which is really too bad because the Rays seem to have a great organization.[/QUOTE]

Demographics, average age in the community is about 79.[/QUOTE]

They need more ground level seats. No, it is surprising. This should be one of the hottest teams in the market, and the Miami market should also be big. Can't quite figure this out. Lots of people in the general area with disposable income who live there and would like a ncie day in the park rather than spend time at a theme park.[/QUOTE]

Both areas have lots of old people on fixed incomes and lots of displaced people with displaced loyalties (the majority in each area is not originally from Florida)

#21 Jim Crikket

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Posted 29 August 2012 - 01:16 PM

What bring us to tonight's word:new stadiums. For years we've heard that in order to have good teams, franchises need new stadiums, to increase attendance. Actually, it is all the way around, good teams bring people to stadiums, and justify new facilities. You can have all the flashy new stadium that you want, but if your team is bad, after a couple of years, the stadium is going to be empty. See present Twins, see Gophers football. Vikings, please listen. I only hope that the Twins don't fall in the vicious circle of reducing payroll and poor teams because of reducing attendance, which in turn will reduce the attendance further.


Future Shock

or

Rinse and Repeat (the real Twins mantra)


Case in point regarding "the means to spend" argument which the Twins are in the process of completely blowing up:

The Baltimore Orioles-

on a hot streak,
hottest team in August-playing 16-8 baseball, a .667 clip,
revived from the dead for years on end to competitive,
third best record in the AL,
the best record in one-run games in baseball,
only 3.5 games behind the best team in the league, the Yankees,
playing in one of the best parks in all of baseball- Camden Yards,
playing a first place team in the White Sox- with a Cy Young favorite on the mound, Chris Sale
perfect night for baseball in Baltimore



drew all of 12,841 fans last night.


I realize that Baltimore has become a quick target when people want to talk about how fans stay away despite a beautiful ballpark and, now, a competitive team. However, this week's attendance is not indicative of any such thing. There were actually a couple thousand fewer people at their game on Monday night, I believe, but the low attendance is not really indicative of fan apathy.

The orioles have had over 1.6 million fans in 2012, averaging 25,337 per game. That's not great... 23rd among MLB teams... but then the White Sox, who lead the AL Central are currently ranked 24th, behind Baltimore. Attendance is actually over 15% higher on a per game basis (nearly 3,400 more fans per game) compared to last season.

The unusually low attendance this week is likely due to the week-long construction process of the race course for the Baltimore Grand Prix this weekend. Starting this past Saturday, a lot of the roads adjacent to and around Camden Yards are being closed and re-routed to allow for the contruction of the Grand Prix course through the streets of the Harbor area. A lot of the locals aren't even bothering to try to get to their offices in the area this week because of the traffic and parking restrictions, much less trying to get down to Camden for a ballgame.

Baltimore is indeed a cautionary tale for Twins ownership, indicating that a nice ballpark alone won't put butts in the seats forever. But it is incorrect to use Baltimore as an example of a fanbase that won't come back even for a competitive team. They may not be filling the stadium at this point, but there are a lot of teams (including the Twins) that would love to be seeing a 15% increase in attendance.

Edited by Jim Crikket, 29 August 2012 - 01:21 PM.

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#22 jokin

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Posted 29 August 2012 - 02:31 PM

[quote name='Jim Crikket'][quote name='jokin'][quote name='adjacent']What bring us to tonight's word:new stadiums. For years we've heard that in order to have good teams, franchises need new stadiums, to increase attendance. Actually, it is all the way around, good teams bring people to stadiums, and justify new facilities. You can have all the flashy new stadium that you want, but if your team is bad, after a couple of years, the stadium is going to be empty. See present Twins, see Gophers football. Vikings, please listen. I only hope that the Twins don't fall in the vicious circle of reducing payroll and poor teams because of reducing attendance, which in turn will reduce the attendance further.[/QUOTE]

Future Shock

or

Rinse and Repeat (the real Twins mantra)


Case in point regarding "the means to spend" argument which the Twins are in the process of completely blowing up:

The Baltimore Orioles-

on a hot streak,
hottest team in August-playing 16-8 baseball, a .667 clip,
revived from the dead for years on end to competitive,
third best record in the AL,
the best record in one-run games in baseball,
only 3.5 games behind the best team in the league, the Yankees,
playing in one of the best parks in all of baseball- Camden Yards,
playing a first place team in the White Sox- with a Cy Young favorite on the mound, Chris Sale
perfect night for baseball in Baltimore



drew all of 12,841 fans last night.
[/QUOTE]

I realize that Baltimore has become a quick target when people want to talk about how fans stay away despite a beautiful ballpark and, now, a competitive team. However, this week's attendance is not indicative of any such thing. There were actually a couple thousand fewer people at their game on Monday night, I believe, but the low attendance is not really indicative of fan apathy.

The orioles have had over 1.6 million fans in 2012, averaging 25,337 per game. That's not great... 23rd among MLB teams... but then the White Sox, who lead the AL Central are currently ranked 24th, behind Baltimore. Attendance is actually over 15% higher on a per game basis (nearly 3,400 more fans per game) compared to last season.

The unusually low attendance this week is likely due to the week-long construction process of the race course for the Baltimore Grand Prix this weekend. Starting this past Saturday, a lot of the roads adjacent to and around Camden Yards are being closed and re-routed to allow for the contruction of the Grand Prix course through the streets of the Harbor area. A lot of the locals aren't even bothering to try to get to their offices in the area this week because of the traffic and parking restrictions, much less trying to get down to Camden for a ballgame.

Baltimore is indeed a cautionary tale for Twins ownership, indicating that a nice ballpark alone won't put butts in the seats forever. But it is incorrect to use Baltimore as an example of a fanbase that won't come back even for a competitive team. They may not be filling the stadium at this point, but there are a lot of teams (including the Twins) that would love to be seeing a 15% increase in attendance.[/QUOTE]

History of Baltimore attendance :

2001: 38.8 (000) Rank overall: 5th
2002: 33.1 10th
2003: 30.3 12th
2004: 34.3 12th
2005: 32.4 14th
2006: 26.6 20th
2007: 27.0 23rd
2008: 25.0 24th
2009: 23.5 21st
2010: 21.7 24th
2011: 21.9 26th
2012: average attendance in August in the thick of the race with the hottest team in baseball- 21.5!

Thanks for the info about the Grand Prix situation, but that still leaves them with a poor August attendance result, especially considering they are playing at a .667 clip this month. The White Sox have always been, and will always be, the orphan team in Chicago.

Interestingly, the Twins attendance graph over the same time period is exactly the opposite to the Orioles. If the Twins go through a process similar to the Orioles, expect the serial spiraling down of attendance and payroll to continue for years to come. The Orioles are finally trying hard to take advantage of the Red Sox collapse and avoid losing fans to the Nats, I wish the sense of urgency would be replicated in Minnesota.

#23 Oxtung

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Posted 29 August 2012 - 11:07 PM

listen to Terry Ryan talk about a "weak FA market for pitching" (which is garbage) and his general philosophy against long-term deals for pitchers...


Just to clarify a bit he actually said that the "elite free agent pitcher market was thin". He said nothing about the overall pitching market. If you take "elite" to mean Hamels/Greinke etc... then yes it is thin.


Another reason for Tampa's attendance struggles could be the housing market. Tampa got absolutely rocked. I have a buddy there who said his house has lost 50% of it's value since he bought it in 2007.

Edited by Oxtung, 29 August 2012 - 11:09 PM.


#24 kab21

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Posted 30 August 2012 - 09:01 AM

I don't understand why this is one or the other. You need both (winning team and a nice stadium).

I understand that fans are impatient but this team is coming off of a decade of success and at some point every team has to retool. I also don't understand where everyone wants to spend the money. Paying 30+ yr old FA's big bucks typically is a bad idea and there are only a few Willingham type contracts every year. If you think Blackburn, Nishi and Capps are bad contracts then you haven't seen anything yet if the Twins start spending tons of money.

There will probably be an AS game benefit in attendance. Usually to qualify for tickets you need to be at least a partial season ticket holder for 2 seasons. that will help deal with the losing team on the field.