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Article: Joe Mauer's Future

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#81 killertwinfan

killertwinfan

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Posted 17 April 2018 - 04:03 AM

I understood your point and I am sure your math is accurate.I was pointing out that the dollar link to WAR could be a flawed approach because he wasn't actually worth $37M in 2013.Joe on steroids now?I highly doubt it.In 2009 when he hit 28HR? I have no idea. Could be juiced baseballs, could be something else. It certainly is an outlier of a season in terms of home runs and is very well timed when you are trying to earn that big contract!

 

 

That table is a creation of my own but it's based on reputable sources. Fangraphs lists a player WAR and calculates what each point of WAR is worth per year. From there it's just multiplication and addition. Feel free to check the math but I did it twice and got the same numbers. Not sure about your 2013 point either. Mauer had an .880 OPS and played 75 games at C. That's pretty valuable even if it isn't 120 games at C.

 

No one is saying the contract paid off. If you read the chart, it says that Mauer has not provided the value of the contract. Says it pretty explicitly. He'd need a 6.0 WAR season (basically Joey Votto) to make the contract with it. He'd basically have to play pretty near the level he's playing right now all year.

 

My point is that he's close to being worth the contract (conservatively assuming he ends up with 2.0 WAR he'd end up being $40 million under the contract - which averages out to like $5 million/yr) and that's with a pretty-close-to-worst-case scenario: concussions forced him from catcher 3 years before we expected and cost him basically two years without being a big enough injury the Twins got insurance money.

 

P.S. For fun, I also looked at 2006 to 2010. On a $33.4 million contract, Joe Mauer produced $164.51 million of WAR. That's pretty insane.

 

P.P.S. If Mauer puts up 2.0 WAR season, it's be worth $20 million+. Now he's not going to get that because the upside isn't there and the downside isn't but $8 million is really low. I'd see $10-$12 million and think the Twins could be getting a nice bargain.

 

P.P.P.S. Are you suggesting that Joe Mauer is on steroids? That seems pretty unlikely

 


#82 ThejacKmp

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Posted 17 April 2018 - 06:47 AM

 

I understood your point and I am sure your math is accurate.I was pointing out that the dollar link to WAR could be a flawed approach because he wasn't actually worth $37M in 2013.Joe on steroids now?I highly doubt it.In 2009 when he hit 28HR? I have no idea. Could be juiced baseballs, could be something else. It certainly is an outlier of a season in terms of home runs and is very well timed when you are trying to earn that big contract!

 

What's your argument for him not being worth it in 2013? He put up 5.6 WAR. For context, that would put him around Pedroia, Rizzo and Lindor territory last year. That's pretty solid company. I know he played 113 games but 75 were at catcher and were gold glove quality. Definitely worth $37 million with that offense at catcher.

 

As far as steroids, that's ludicrous. Mauer was in line for a big extension no matter what, that year aded some dollars but wasn't the reason he got a big deal. It also wasn't a contract year, he was a year away from free agency. If you look at those home runs in 2009, almost all of them were in the first five rows in left and left center field. He hit most of them at home and took advantage of the Metronome having a short field. Also, you just don't know Joe if you think he was on steroids. There's no player in baseball I'd be more shocked to hear was on roids than Mauer. He only drinks milk.

 

I'm violently opposed to saying anyone was on steroids (ball juiced is ridiculous since it wasn't juiced for just Mauer) unless you have more proof than "He hit 28 home runs one year and never hit more than 13." That's irresponsible, even for an opinion.


#83 killertwinfan

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Posted 17 April 2018 - 06:55 AM

Because no one got paid that much in 2013.  

What's your argument for him not being worth it in 2013? He put up 5.6 WAR. For context, that would put him around Pedroia, Rizzo and Lindor territory last year. That's pretty solid company. I know he played 113 games but 75 were at catcher and were gold glove quality. Definitely worth $37 million with that offense at catcher.

 

As far as steroids, that's ludicrous. Mauer was in line for a big extension no matter what, that year aded some dollars but wasn't the reason he got a big deal. It also wasn't a contract year, he was a year away from free agency. If you look at those home runs in 2009, almost all of them were in the first five rows in left and left center field. He hit most of them at home and took advantage of the Metronome having a short field. Also, you just don't know Joe if you think he was on steroids. There's no player in baseball I'd be more shocked to hear was on roids than Mauer. He only drinks milk.

 

I'm violently opposed to saying anyone was on steroids (ball juiced is ridiculous since it wasn't juiced for just Mauer) unless you have more proof than "He hit 28 home runs one year and never hit more than 13." That's irresponsible, even for an opinion.

 


#84 ThejacKmp

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Posted 17 April 2018 - 07:59 AM

 

Because no one got paid that much in 2013.  

 

Huh? Just because no one got paid that much in 2013 doesn't mean that no one was worth that much. Players can have extra value beyond what they're paid if they perform well. 

 

In fact, this most regularly happens with star players. By stats and on-court performance, Lebron James and Kevin Durant are worth two and three time what they're paid in the NBA but because of the cap, they get paid less that that. Your third center who gets paid $5 million is getting way more than his value - that's the result of collective bargaining.

 

Baseball isn't as drastic as the NBA because of the lack of a cap but owners are constantly using their leverage to drive salary down. I'm not going to get into collusion this past offseason but it has clearly happened in the past. Guys like Kershaw, Harper, Trout etc. produce way more than they are paid, even with astronomical salary.

 

Mauer in 2013 is similar. He was early in a contract that was set up so that, in an ideal world, he would exceed the yearly value on the front end and come up short on the back end. The concussion changed that but it's not weird that he would exceed the $23 million on the front end of the contract. 


#85 ThejacKmp

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Posted 17 April 2018 - 08:07 AM

 

People are convinced this is the real Joe Mauer, but not convinced this is the real Buxton?

 

I think we need more than 10-15 games to know what either might be, but I could be wrong. 

 

Like it or not, the game is about more than just OBP. He plays (more accurately, how they expect him to play in the next year or two) first base, how he plays relative to:

 

1. Other options for the Twins

2. Other first basemen

 

is how his future should be judged.

 

IMO, we aren't enough games into this season to have any real idea yet.

 

Oh this is not the real Joe Mauer. He'll certainly fall back to earth. But this fast start makes me feel better about him being able to replicate last year's stats. For one thing, he's bankrolled these games. For another, he's having great at bats so it meets the eye test.

 

Agreed that the big thing is what the Twins other options are.

 

1) They don't have strong internal candidates unless Rooker goes nuts and Sano can't play 3B etc.

 

2) The free agent market looks pretty barren - Mauer might actually be the best candidate at 1B since he's certainly above Matt Adams, Lucas Duda, Chris Carter, Pedro Alvarez, Adrian Gonzalez and Chris Parmelee (the 1B free agents I located). DH has Victor Martinez, Evan Gattis and Nelson Cruz hitting the market. I don't see the Twins making a move on one of those three, though perhaps Cruz or Martinez might be interesting.

 

Hard to see a better external candidate and internally, there seems to be a place. Depends on the money but Joe doesn't seem like he'll demand a ton and it's in the Twins best interests not to try to screw him. If he wants to play and is reasonably effective I'd see a 1 or 2 year deal for sure. 

 

EDIT: I'll take that back. Lucas Duda might be an equivalent option to Mauer at 1B. He is perennially underrated and underpaid. $3.5 million this year for a guy who hit 30 bombs last year and put up an .818 OPS. He hits lefty too so that makes it tougher too. Joe has more OBP and better D but they're not dissimilar value wise. I still don't see the Twins going after him since Joe means more and Duda is a bit redundant as a strikeout-prone three outcomes guy. But worth saying that Duda is not on the same replacement level as those other guys.

Edited by ThejacKmp, 17 April 2018 - 08:13 AM.

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