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Is It Time to Start Worrying About Sano?

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#81 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 14 April 2018 - 09:13 AM

That's the problem. He doesn't have that type of power.

He absolutely has that kind of power. When he’s healthy, he’s at or near the top of the leaderboard in exit velocity.
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#82 gunnarthor

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Posted 14 April 2018 - 09:50 AM

 

That's the problem. He doesn't have that type of power.

He does.


#83 drivlikejehu

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Posted 14 April 2018 - 09:56 AM

 

We didn't scout him and write pieces on him.Maybe a few people here did, but I did not.I did not forecast any kind of expectations for him or Buxton.Over the years I became a wait and see kind of guy.Like everyone I remember Sano being drafted, but drafts are pie in the sky to me.Been around too long to project a draft pick into anything.Too much can happen.

 

He wasn't drafted, he was signed as an international free agent at age 16, which involves even more uncertainty than the typical 18 year-old HS draftee.

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#84 ewen21

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Posted 14 April 2018 - 10:25 AM

Yeah you got me. Drafted was not the right word

#85 Carole Keller

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Posted 14 April 2018 - 10:57 AM

MODERATOR WARNING: It's one thing to have concerns about where Sano's future is going, what kind of player he will be and will he fulfill the hitting role many of us hoped for, it is quite another to attack his personal character, something none of you know anything about first-hand, as reasons for his performance. This thread is not about his personal character and those assumptions and accusations will not stand. Period. Another person who references him as lazy, doesn't care, fat, too egotistical, doesn't have a work ethic will be pointed from here on out. It’s fair to have concerns about Sano’s condition and it’s fair to have doubts about his off-season and how the surgery and allegations could have an effect over all. However, please address these concerns of him as a ballplayer respectfully, without attacking his personal character. You can have complete disdain for a player, but respectfulness is not a choice on TD. And in reference to respectfulness of others, posters who jump to conclusions about other posters' characters will also be pointed going forward.

 

Thank you.

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#86 launchingthrees

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Posted 14 April 2018 - 04:05 PM

 

He absolutely has that kind of power. When he’s healthy, he’s at or near the top of the leaderboard in exit velocity.

 

So when do the home runs start showing up? He's never been even close to leading the league in home runs. Not as a counting stat or a rate stat. The suggestion that he has a real chance at leading the league in home runs is absurd on its face.

 

30 HR's per 140 games isn't particularly notable in today's game.

Edited by launchingthrees, 14 April 2018 - 04:20 PM.


#87 h2oface

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Posted 14 April 2018 - 04:18 PM

 

Perhaps you shouldn't put so much stock into perceptions gathered from such a distance.

 

Perhaps with distance, one can actually see things clearer than being very close all the time? I think it goes both ways, and both have advantages.

Edited by h2oface, 14 April 2018 - 04:20 PM.


#88 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 14 April 2018 - 04:41 PM

So when do the home runs start showing up? He's never been even close to leading the league in home runs. Not as a counting stat or a rate stat. The suggestion that he has a real chance at leading the league in home runs is absurd on its face.

30 HR's per 140 games isn't particularly notable in today's game.


Doesn't power typically progress later than other abilities?
Brian Dozier hit 9 HR's as a 24 year old, 42 as a 29 year old.

Also, Sano has 37 HR's per 162 games for his career. That happens to be the exact same rate as Hank Aaron.
Harmon Killebrew had 38 per 162, Willie Mays had 36 per 162, Ken Griffey jr. had 38 per 162.
That 36 to 39 per 162 range is where most of the all time HR leaders check in at, in fact.

If you want to say he'll never be healthy enough to do it, ok fine, but to say he doesn't have the ability is just flat wrong.
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#89 launchingthrees

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Posted 14 April 2018 - 04:57 PM

 

Doesn't power typically progress later than other abilities?
Brian Dozier hit 9 HR's as a 24 year old, 42 as a 29 year old.

Also, Sano has 37 HR's per 162 games for his career. That happens to be the exact same rate as Hank Aaron.
Harmon Killebrew had 38 per 162, Willie Mays had 36 per 162, Ken Griffey jr. had 38 per 162.
That 36 to 39 per 162 range is where most of the all time HR leaders check in at, in fact.

If you want to say he'll never be healthy enough to do it, ok fine, but to say he doesn't have the ability is just flat wrong.

 

I don't put any stock in HR production comparisons across generations. You may but I don't think there's any value to it and projection models don't either. We'll just have to agree to disagree as to the relevance of the earlier #s.

 

Who's betting that he'll decrease his strikeouts enough to have the opportunity to put up big HR #s?If he does that can he ever average more than 120 games per year given his physical makeup and inability to do so at ages 22-24?

 

I'm betting against both laying heavy odds but very much hope I'm wrong.

Edited by launchingthrees, 14 April 2018 - 05:13 PM.

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#90 adorduan

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Posted 14 April 2018 - 05:15 PM

 

Doesn't power typically progress later than other abilities?
Brian Dozier hit 9 HR's as a 24 year old, 42 as a 29 year old.

Also, Sano has 37 HR's per 162 games for his career. That happens to be the exact same rate as Hank Aaron.
Harmon Killebrew had 38 per 162, Willie Mays had 36 per 162, Ken Griffey jr. had 38 per 162.
That 36 to 39 per 162 range is where most of the all time HR leaders check in at, in fact.

If you want to say he'll never be healthy enough to do it, ok fine, but to say he doesn't have the ability is just flat wrong.

No offense, but HR's were a bit harder to come by back in Aaron, Killebrew and May's playing days. 

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#91 TheLeviathan

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Posted 14 April 2018 - 05:38 PM

Perhaps with distance, one can actually see things clearer than being very close all the time? I think it goes both ways, and both have advantages.


Or you see what you want to see.

A lot of the arguments against Sano are predicated on vague concepts like "He doesn't want to be great" observed from afar. Why should anyone put any stock into anything so nebulous?
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#92 prouster

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Posted 14 April 2018 - 05:55 PM

So when do the home runs start showing up? He's never been even close to leading the league in home runs. Not as a counting stat or a rate stat. The suggestion that he has a real chance at leading the league in home runs is absurd on its face.

30 HR's per 140 games isn't particularly notable in today's game.


What is happening?

#93 h2oface

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Posted 15 April 2018 - 01:50 PM

 

Or you see what you want to see.

A lot of the arguments against Sano are predicated on vague concepts like "He doesn't want to be great" observed from afar. Why should anyone put any stock into anything so nebulous?

 

Maybe. Just the ol' "fresh eyes/outside perspective" thing. I don't think anyone wants him to be striking out 40-50% of his at bats. Plus, everyone that competes at this level wants to be great. That is a given. Of course he wants to be great. Work is shown by results and actions, not words, eh?

 

I am still bummed that they moved him off shortstop. He could have been the most massive shortstop in MLB history!;)

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#94 DJSim22

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Posted 15 April 2018 - 03:46 PM

The strikeouts are a problem, but I'm not too worried yet.Still pretty young still hits home runs.Considering the MLB has pretty much turned into an all or nothing league (bores me) he's still got plenty of value.


#95 Ultima Ratio

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Posted 15 April 2018 - 08:25 PM

Look like Adam Dunn so far.

Should'a gone fishing


#96 Twins33

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Posted 15 April 2018 - 10:06 PM

Look like Adam Dunn so far.

Correction, that would be old Adam Dunn. Adam Dunn never stuck out above 30% until he was 30 or 31. So he's old Adam Dunn but with more power.

Edited by Twins33, 15 April 2018 - 10:10 PM.

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#97 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 16 April 2018 - 05:26 AM

From the Sano threads, you'd never know that any other stats besides strikeouts exist.
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#98 launchingthrees

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Posted 16 April 2018 - 05:11 PM

 

Correction, that would be old Adam Dunn. Adam Dunn never stuck out above 30% until he was 30 or 31. So he's old Adam Dunn but with more power.

 

If Sano reaches Dunn's production I'll be thrilled. Adam Dunn was significantly more advanced as a hitter than Sano at the same age. A lot more walks, fewer strikeouts. Similar power #s. Sano does have some additional upside on defense though.

Edited by launchingthrees, 16 April 2018 - 05:19 PM.

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#99 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 17 April 2018 - 03:26 PM

 

So when do the home runs start showing up? He's never been even close to leading the league in home runs. Not as a counting stat or a rate stat. The suggestion that he has a real chance at leading the league in home runs is absurd on its face.

 

30 HR's per 140 games isn't particularly notable in today's game.

There's more to it than homers per 140. Sano has been injury-plagued in every season he has played, which drags down his numbers.

 

For example, he started 2017 by hitting 21 home runs in 82 games (80 games started).

 

And home park has a lot to do with it. Do you think Judge is the absolute beast he is if he plays half his games in a neutral home park setting? He's still a monster but maybe a 45 home run monster, not a 55+ homer monster.


#100 Linus

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Posted 20 April 2018 - 08:59 PM

The strikeouts continue to pile up. That combined with sub par fielding makes me think the premise of starting this thread is legit. I get that he will punish the occasional cookie but He has no chance against any decent fastball especially up. I think the league has adjusted to him and now he has to make the adjust back