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Article: Through Ten Games, Twins On Pace For 97 Wins

joe mauer max kepler brian dozier jose berrios jake odorizzi
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#21 Tom Froemming

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Posted 12 April 2018 - 08:43 AM

 

folks

There are 0.0 "nerdy" stats that matter right now.There are no trends at this point.

 

Baseball is about patience.So be patient.  

The gmLI shows who has been asked to pitch in the highest-leverage situations, so I think that's an interesting trend to note. Of course that can all change. WPA isn't predictive at all, but it's an interesting stat to show what has happened so far

 

But I didn't say "hey everybody, draw concrete conclusions off these numbers!!!" Nerdy stats are fun, loosen up :) If we can't talk about anything over a 10-game stretch, this site is going to be really boring.

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#22 Seth Stohs

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Posted 12 April 2018 - 08:45 AM

Tom Kelly used to always talk about playing 60 games before making many moves because only then do you really start seeing what you've got. I do like that leverage data as it shows Molitor's current confidence level in guys. It will be interesting to see how that changes.

 

You all may be right. I thought that Hildenberger as at 7/7 also, but when I looked at the game log yesterday, I thought it showed runners on 2nd and 3rd (even though my memory of watching it was bases loaded). Well, then I just looked at it again, and it does show bases loaded. Should have trusted my gut. 

 

Will be interesting to see how patient they are with him. 

 

I would put almost zero stock in 10 games. I did think there are some interesting trends worth watching, but I probably woudln't make any huge statement. I also believe that the weather is a factor. You/They don't want to use it as an excuse because both sides are experiencing it. But it is a factor. It will be nice to see, ,hopefully starting next week in Puerto Rico, how good weather effects the pitchers and specifically their control/command. 

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#23 Thrylos

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Posted 12 April 2018 - 08:47 AM

 

 

An NFL regular season involved 16 games played. An MLB season includes 162 games played. The Twins have now played ten games, or about 1/16th of their schedule, the equivalent of one NFL game. If it was an NFL schedule, the Twins - with their 6-4 record - would get a Win for the first game of the season. While 6-4 may not seem real exciting, if the team were to go 6-4 for all 16 ten-game samples, they would be on pace to go 97-65 on the season.

 

This is an interesting point that shows the difference in parity between the two leagues:

 

A 6-4 record (.600 winning ratio) or 97 win baseball team is a very highly performing team and has the chops to contend deep into the post-season.Only 4 mlb teams had that record last season

 

A 4-6 record (.400winning ratio) or 65 win (or 97 loss) baseball team is horrible team that will pick on the top 5 next draft

 

A .600 football team with a 10-6 record could lead the division and likely make the post season but it is nothing special, since 13 NFL teams had that record last season.

 

An NFL team with a 6-10 record is not the worst team since 11 NFL teams had that record or worst last season...

 

So the difference between .200 winning points is much bigger in the MLB than in the NFL

 

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#24 Number3

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Posted 12 April 2018 - 08:48 AM

I will be happy if they finish April with anything over .500 winning %. Extrapolating the first 10 games into the whole season is a good elementary school math question but not much to do with a win-loss record. Way too may variables as we all know yesterday's game being a classic example. I'll take 90 wins any day and another shot at the Yankees in the playoffs.


#25 Mike Sixel

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Posted 12 April 2018 - 09:55 AM

To me, the big story is that a playoff contender is going with a 23 man roster. Unacceptable.

They have two relief pitchers the manager won't use.
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One of the best opening day rosters in years. Now go get 'em.


#26 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 12 April 2018 - 10:22 AM

Would they, though? We're talking about 4-5 performances from the team's most heavily-used relievers.

A good front office doesn't make/regret decisions ten games into a season, especially a season as volatile as this one has been.

And it's hard to blame the front office for things like Molitor putting Duke in against righty after righty... after righty. I just don't get it.


Molitor is no longer the guy they got stuck with though.
They chose to continue with him, even with a track record of refusing to use LOOGY's properly.
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#27 Thrylos

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Posted 12 April 2018 - 10:30 AM

 

Molitor is no longer the guy they got stuck with though.
They chose to continue with him, even with a track record of refusing to use LOOGY's properly.

 

Kinda stuck with not firing the manager who got the MoY award, though...

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#28 clutterheart

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Posted 12 April 2018 - 11:02 AM

 

I'd say that 7/7 runs inherited scored is statistically significant even with sample size = 7.

 

As is calling something that might be over one's head "nerdy", instead of making an effort to understand what it might mean.

 

As far as trends go, you only need 3 data points to have one...

"nerdy" was the term the poster used, and I think 3 games is not enough.

 

I have never been believer in Hildy as I think he gets by on deception.Over time MLB hitters will get used to where the ball leaves his hand.But its just too damn early in the year to make any inference especially after what he did last year.

 

So lets wait until May, and see where the team is at.  

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#29 slash129

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Posted 12 April 2018 - 11:29 AM

 

This is a grey and somewhat depressing weather morning - your optimism is as welcome as the sun would be.If only I could believe it.

 

"Good things happen to Sano when he hits the ball" but that is as profound as saying good things happen when we out-score the other team.At this point 50% strikeouts is completely unacceptable.He and Buxton are the big two, but it is Mauer, Rosario, Kepler, and Dozier who are carrying the team and they are going to need some help. 

 

Agree that Sano's K-rate is unacceptable, but at the end of the day, he's still OPSing 925.Rosario and Kepler are fresh on the mind, but Sano has gotten plenty of big hits for this team - the knockout punch off Paxton being the biggest.

 

Also, while he hasn't played a perfect 3B, he's definitely made plays like that laser to nail Altuve the other day.

 

While Rosario has made some plays defensively - firing and getting G Polanco at the plate, his play has mostly been erratic. Definitely not carrying the team.More of the same yesterday with that air mail over Dozier's head and a very close call when not yielding to the Platinum Glove centerfielder.


#30 Danchat

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Posted 12 April 2018 - 12:02 PM

 

To me, the big story is that a playoff contender is going with a 23 man roster. Unacceptable.

They have two relief pitchers the manager won't use.

Don't worry, Phil Hughes will likely be coming up and taking one of those roster spots. Then it'll be a 24 man roster with a bad 5th starter!

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#31 Seth Stohs

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Posted 12 April 2018 - 12:12 PM

 

I will be happy if they finish April with anything over .500 winning %. Extrapolating the first 10 games into the whole season is a good elementary school math question but not much to do with a win-loss record. Way too may variables as we all know yesterday's game being a classic example. I'll take 90 wins any day and another shot at the Yankees in the playoffs.

 

Yeah, I hope that i didn't in any way imply that i think this means they'll win 97 games this season. I was just interesting to me that 6-4 is probably way better than we assume. 

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#32 mikelink45

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Posted 12 April 2018 - 12:32 PM

I keep thinking about your projection this early in the season. If we take the opening series we project to 162 - 0 which of course was blown since then we are 3 - 4 which, if it is more realistic would mean we would be 69 wins this season so I will go out on an April limb and say we will win between 69 and 158 games this season!


#33 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 12 April 2018 - 12:41 PM

I am intruiged with the three games Garver caught. Great pitching in them, all were wins.

The Twins won't face any lefties in the series against Chicago (scheduled for 4 games, will probably play 1 of them, maybe 2 if they play Sunday.) So I'd like to see Garver catch Berrios again tonight. (instead of Molitor playing the platoon split with Castro)

Edited by Hosken Bombo Disco, 12 April 2018 - 12:51 PM.

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#34 spanman2

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Posted 12 April 2018 - 01:02 PM

IALTO

 

World Series, homeboy.

 

I WAS TOLD I WOULD NEVER MAKE IT BECAUSE I AM TOO SHORT. WELL, I'M STILL TOO SHORT. IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT YOUR HEIGHT IS. IT'S WHAT'S IN YOUR HEART.

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#35 Jham

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Posted 12 April 2018 - 01:44 PM

gmLI is really a measure on management trust and not pitching performance. It is all about Molitor's belief on his pitchers.

A couple days ago, I used Situational Run Expectancy (RE24) which measures how close to the average pitcher in a particular situation (bases loaded or empty, 8 runs up etc) a particular pitcher performs and Fangraphs "Clutch" which measures how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment, to analyse the Twins' pen. They are both WPA-based measurements. Results and conclusion here. These 2 measurement offer an interesting insight. I did not check them after yesterday's game, but I think that the conclusion is pretty close...


This is an awesome post. As I was looking at the dialogue re inherited runners and thinking a runner on 1st with 2 outs counts the same as runner on 3rd no one out, and that the start is pretty misleading in that regard, here you are crushing with numerous stats and comparisons balancing out the situational disparities! Well done good sir!
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#36 jkcarew

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Posted 12 April 2018 - 01:50 PM

I think the most significant early trend impacting the Twins is LAA's start.

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#37 gocgo

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Posted 12 April 2018 - 02:56 PM

 

Yeah, the weather factor ... is a factor. As Brock suggest, we need to wait another month before jumping to conclusions and tidy observations. But one thing I am in agreement on: Fernando Rodney is an unpredictable closer!

I don't recall the ball flying out of the ballpark like it is this year in the cold weather.

Mind your own biscuits and life will be gravy.


#38 Borealis

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Posted 12 April 2018 - 02:58 PM

I agree that stats are a ton of fun, but also feel it is presumptuous to state that a person doesn’t know baseball or that the math is too complicated when they aren’t on top of the latest advanced metrics. I’m kinda new to TD but have already gathered that there’s an eye test crowd, a stat crowd, and a mixture of both out here. This can make for excellent debates! But some of the slights (from both sides) can get a little hard to stomach at times. Just one fella’s two cents.
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#39 Platoon

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Posted 12 April 2018 - 03:25 PM

Kinda stuck with not firing the manager who got the MoY award, though...

Or, they could have fired the guy who lost 103? Pohlad may have saved Molitors job when Falvine came on board, but to me that has always left the impression that Molitor is the Twins manager because of his relationship with Pohlad.
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#40 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 12 April 2018 - 09:11 PM

 

I think the most significant early trend impacting the Twins is LAA's start.

It's certainly something to watch but going into this season, I gave the Twins roughly a 33% chance of taking the division (only after the Lynn acquisition). They shouldn't be aiming for the Wild Card, even though that's likely where they end up competing. There's no reason this team can't challenge for a title in a weak division.

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