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Article: Changing Timeline: Is It Time To Start Worrying About Santana?

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#21 TheLeviathan

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Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:05 AM

Worried for the whole year?Not yet.

 

Worried he's going to be available for far less of the season than previously indicated?Yes.

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#22 Andrew Thares

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Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:14 AM

 

Well, I'm 99.99% sure that SpoTrac is wrong.
MLBTraderumors, Cot's Contracts, and Twinkie Town all report that it's AND 200 IP in 2018.
The writers on this site have also previously confirmed that it's AND 200 IP in 2018.

With a Google search of Ervin Santana contract, SpoTrac is the only place reporting it as OR 200 IP in 2018, so I don't know where they are sourcing that from.

Well if Spotrac has it wrong then I guess I do too


#23 jimmer

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Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:14 AM

Why does it matter? He isn't going to reach 200 IP this year or 400 IP between last season and this season anyway.
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#24 laloesch

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Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:20 AM

 

Talked with May a few days ago and he said he'd be ready in May.

 

That would be superb if it happened.He's been throwing off the mound for weeks now including offspeed stuff. By the end of may it will have been 14 months since his surgery.


#25 jharaldson

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Posted 10 April 2018 - 11:35 AM

 

Well if Spotrac has it wrong then I guess I do too

 

Pioneer Press reporter Mike Beradino reported it as an "OR" in his article in December of 2014 covering the signing:

 

Santana’s deal includes a fifth-year vesting option based on innings pitched — either 200 in 2018 or a combined 400 in 2017-18 — but it does not include a no-trade provision.

 

https://www.twinciti...e-than-the-arm/

 

 


#26 caninatl04

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Posted 10 April 2018 - 12:05 PM

Can we wait until May 1st?


#27 mikelink45

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Posted 10 April 2018 - 12:30 PM

Any injury is a cause for worry.I imagine that when people heard that Dizzy Dean hurt his toe there was nothing to worry about, but then it ended his career. https://www.fangraph...injury-cascade/

"Most importantly, it shows the cascade potential of any injury to a pitcher. He broke his toe, leading to shoulder and arm issues and quieting a great career. For pitchers, any injury can lead to other injuries. Altered mechanics or additional stress can cause issues up the pitching motion’s kinetic chain. Fixing one link in the chain could cause the next weakest link to break. Sometimes a weak link can cause another weak link to break. It can be a vicious cycle."


#28 Thrylos

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Posted 10 April 2018 - 12:33 PM

Worrying? Why?There are two pitchers in the organization, one available now (Fernando Romero) and one available later (Trevor May) who are likely better than Santana, with a third (Michael Pineda) who will be ready to come during the final sprint of the season.

 

Wasted money this season and he should had been traded when he had some value after last season that was an aberration.

 

Santana was going to be irrelevant for the 2018 Twins anyways, with Lance Lynn's addition...

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#29 h2oface

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Posted 10 April 2018 - 12:54 PM

It's one thing to have him back, and another to be effective. He will be back. Effective becomes the big concern. Hopefully, the amazing free agents signed will be so good that it will be onward and upward, regardless.


#30 Jham

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Posted 10 April 2018 - 12:55 PM

Do we know of other pitchers who have returned from this procedure?

#31 Danchat

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Posted 10 April 2018 - 02:26 PM

 

Worrying? Why?There are two pitchers in the organization, one available now (Fernando Romero) and one available later (Trevor May) who are likely better than Santana, with a third (Michael Pineda) who will be ready to come during the final sprint of the season.

 

Wasted money this season and he should had been traded when he had some value after last season that was an aberration.

 

Santana was going to be irrelevant for the 2018 Twins anyways, with Lance Lynn's addition...

Look, I have always been an advocate for Trevor May, but calling him a better pitcher than Ervin Santana? We barely have enough tape on the guy in the majors as a starter to even think that he's better than Ervin. Now after having back problems and then missing a full year to Tommy John surgery, he'll suddenly become a better pitcher than Santana? I highly doubt that.

 

And saying that Santana was going to be irrelevant for the 2018 Twins is simply inaccurate. He was going to be the Opening Day pitcher until the injury happened. The rotation would have been Santana-Odorizzi-Berrios-Lynn-Gibson... I bet if you asked Molitor who his ace starter was, he'd tell you it is Ervin. Even if he's the de facto ace, that makes him at the very least relevant.

 

I was open to trading him, but the price had to be right. I expect regression for him, but apparently not as much as you do... I can just imagine it now, seeing Twins Daily blow up after the front office trades Santana for a B-level prospect and whiffing on Darvish. 

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#32 Thrylos

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Posted 10 April 2018 - 03:23 PM

 

 

 

And saying that Santana was going to be irrelevant for the 2018 Twins is simply inaccurate. He was going to be the Opening Day pitcher until the injury happened.

 

Hard to believe, since the injury happened in the last game of the 2017 season...

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#33 ahart10

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Posted 10 April 2018 - 03:31 PM

I’m not too worried. It’s the last year of his deal so if he comes back and is horrible they will just 60day DL and go with hopefully not Hughes.

#34 Danchat

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Posted 10 April 2018 - 03:59 PM

 

Hard to believe, since the injury happened in the last game of the 2017 season...

I don't think Falvey/Levine anticipated that Santana would need surgery in February after his post-season MRI came back clean. Santana started pitching again in February and felt discomfort, leading to the surgery. I suppose it's possible the front office knew something about Ervin's finger I that everyone else didn't, but I doubt it.

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#35 TheLeviathan

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Posted 10 April 2018 - 04:02 PM

I have a hard time calling May or Romero "likely" to be better than Santana.I mean, you can believe that if you want, but you do so in the face of things like facts and evidence.

 

 

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#36 Teddy

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Posted 10 April 2018 - 04:07 PM

Maybe I'm in the minority, but I'm not worried. Even if it takes until June 1 for him to be ready to go, that just means he'll be fresher for the stretch run later this summer.

 

If this stretches out longer than that, I might reserve the right to change my perspective.

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#37 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 10 April 2018 - 05:10 PM

I don't think Falvey/Levine anticipated that Santana would need surgery in February after his post-season MRI came back clean. Santana started pitching again in February and felt discomfort, leading to the surgery. I suppose it's possible the front office knew something about Ervin's finger I that everyone else didn't, but I doubt it.


They knew about at the end of the year and went with the rest and rehab approach.

#38 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 10 April 2018 - 09:28 PM

Well, I'm 99.99% sure that SpoTrac is wrong.
MLBTraderumors, Cot's Contracts, and Twinkie Town all report that it's AND 200 IP in 2018.
The writers on this site have also previously confirmed that it's AND 200 IP in 2018.

With a Google search of Ervin Santana contract, SpoTrac is the only place reporting it as OR 200 IP in 2018, so I don't know where they are sourcing that from.

They’ve had it listed that way for ages and it’s wrong.

#39 Oxtung

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Posted 11 April 2018 - 12:17 AM

I have a hard time calling May or Romero "likely" to be better than Santana.I mean, you can believe that if you want, but you do so in the face of things like facts and evidence.

I’m not sure if it gets to “likely” because that depends on ones personal definition but there are a lot of red flags for Santana right now.

-he’s 35
-out performed his peripherals last couple of years
-unsustainable BABIP and strand rates last season
-fly ball pitcher in middle of fly ball revolution
-his first game action will come against teams in mid-season form
-his arm has been heavily used and he will still be playing with a partially torn ligament
-coming back from injury (and a fairly major one IMO considering how integral that finger is and how poorly it’s gone so far)

Does that get one to likely? Maybe. Maybe not. As I said earlier it depends on ones definition. However let’s not pretend there no “facts or evidence” suggesting it’s possible.

Personally, if the choice was Santana or one of the field, I’d take the field.

#40 TheLeviathan

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Posted 11 April 2018 - 07:18 AM

The last time Trevor May started a baseball game Barack Obama was President.

 

Fernando Romero has pitched one game above AA and last year, at AA, posted a 4.25 ERA with a WHIP of 1.35.

 

I don't care what your definition of likely is, they aren't "likely" to outpitch a guy that has posted an ERA+ over 100 all three years with the Twins.Is it impossible?Of course not.But likely is just nonsense.

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