Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email
Photo

Article: Twins 2018 Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher

lance lynn jose berrios jake odorrizi kyle gibson phil hughes
  • Please log in to reply
52 replies to this topic

#41 djmo

djmo

    Elizabethton

  • Members
  • 2 posts
  • LocationNew York

Posted 26 March 2018 - 04:03 PM

Remember the days when there were only about four statistical pitching benchmarks to go by?

Not to be overly Bert Blyleven about it (i.e., super basic and repetitive) but from outward appearances, this rotation (except maybe for Gibson) seems likely to consistently deliver quality or near-quality starts (imagine Bert's voice) and might be capable of getting on a roll. No more 4+ innings in the box score every third game (one can hope). It's maybe a little old-school to look at it that way, and yeah, no "ace" exactly, but consistent, stable performances on a daily basis would be a vast improvement, even over 2017.

 

  • Blackjack, Monkeypaws and howieramone2 like this

#42 caninatl04

caninatl04

    Chattanooga Lookouts

  • Members
  • 520 posts

Posted 26 March 2018 - 07:18 PM

"Starters not named Ervin went from a 5.91 ERA in 2016 to 5.19 in 2017."

 

Question 1:What was the ERA from starters named neither Ervin nor Berrios?

 

Question 2:Is a 4.50 SP really that rare these days?


#43 Minfidel

Minfidel

    Junior Member

  • Members
  • 22 posts

Posted 26 March 2018 - 07:27 PM

 

The traditional Twins rotation consisted of bringing black powder muskets to nuclear arm's pow wows.

No, the traditional Twins rotation consisted of bringing matches to a mound of black powder.

  • USAFChief likes this

#44 HrbieFan

HrbieFan

    Elizabethton

  • Members
  • 7 posts

Posted 26 March 2018 - 09:01 PM

It is nice to have 3 spots with solid pitchers and a 4th when Santana comes back. If Gibson and/or Hughes fail, we have some decent options waiting in the wings. I hope the days of retread SPs is gone for a long time. We might not have an ace, but we don't have 3 #5 pitchers in the rotation either
  • howieramone2 likes this

#45 bean5302

bean5302

    Elizabethton

  • Members
  • 46 posts

Posted 27 March 2018 - 07:23 AM

 

"Starters not named Ervin went from a 5.91 ERA in 2016 to 5.19 in 2017."

 

Question 1:What was the ERA from starters named neither Ervin nor Berrios?

 

Question 2:Is a 4.50 SP really that rare these days?

 

A1 = 5.55

A2 = Kind of. There were 14 qualified starters with ERA's of 4.49+ last year. It's not that starters posting 4.50 ERAs are rare. It's that pitchers who post those ERAs for consecutive years are rare. A guy can have a bad season driven by luck. BABIP, a couple of his solo shots wind up being grand slams instead... those make big differences in ERA.

 

Teams look to shed pitchers who pitch at that 4.25+ level because they make it awfully hard to win games. 6 innings and 3ER (4.50 ERA) is treated as a quality start, but it's really not. Your team will probably allow at least one more ER over the last 3 innings of the game (ERA 3.00) which means your team needs to score 5 runs to win. The probability of scoring 5 runs in a game is far lower than 4 runs. Actually, that's the very basis of the "Ace" for the playoffs discussion. An Ace is expected to give you 7 innings at 2 ER. A #3 will give you 7 innings at 3 ER, which is still a solid start, but the expectations of winning are probably 80% in favor of the Ace's team at that point.

  • caninatl04 likes this

#46 howieramone2

howieramone2

    Just say no to myths!

  • Members
  • 1,210 posts
  • LocationMaple Grove/Schaumburg

Posted 27 March 2018 - 10:33 AM

 

I do agree years five and six will be interesting. I like him for the next four, so it's a matter of how much those first four years are worth, in terms of the cost of the last two.

A bad contract is a bad contract, regardless of how you spin it. 

I was recently advised by a representative of the board's female caucas, that the term panties in a bundle is not acceptable. Until further notification, please use the term boxer shorts in a bundle. Fact is stranger than fiction.


#47 caninatl04

caninatl04

    Chattanooga Lookouts

  • Members
  • 520 posts

Posted 27 March 2018 - 12:28 PM

 

A1 = 5.55

A2 = Kind of. There were 14 qualified starters with ERA's of 4.49+ last year. It's not that starters posting 4.50 ERAs are rare. It's that pitchers who post those ERAs for consecutive years are rare. A guy can have a bad season driven by luck. BABIP, a couple of his solo shots wind up being grand slams instead... those make big differences in ERA.

 

Teams look to shed pitchers who pitch at that 4.25+ level because they make it awfully hard to win games. 6 innings and 3ER (4.50 ERA) is treated as a quality start, but it's really not. Your team will probably allow at least one more ER over the last 3 innings of the game (ERA 3.00) which means your team needs to score 5 runs to win. The probability of scoring 5 runs in a game is far lower than 4 runs. Actually, that's the very basis of the "Ace" for the playoffs discussion. An Ace is expected to give you 7 innings at 2 ER. A #3 will give you 7 innings at 3 ER, which is still a solid start, but the expectations of winning are probably 80% in favor of the Ace's team at that point.

 

Thank you, Bean

 

So how many qualified starters had ERAs less than 4.5?

 

Hence my query about how rare it is.For me, one of the keys of the season is the ERA (or WHIP) for starting pitchers other than Erv and Berrios.It would be wonderful if it was less than 5.55

 


#48 Danchat

Danchat

    Pro Bowl Armchair QB

  • Members
  • 3,878 posts

Posted 27 March 2018 - 01:40 PM


#49 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Members
  • 26,727 posts

Posted 27 March 2018 - 01:57 PM

A bad contract is a bad contract, regardless of how you spin it.


It costs that much to get him. I'm not sure why spreading the money over more years is bad. You need to look at the entirety of the contract, not just the bad years, to judge the contract.
  • Twins33 likes this

One of the best opening day rosters in years. Now go get 'em.


#50 yarnivek1972

yarnivek1972

    Minnesota Twins

  • Members
  • 4,239 posts

Posted 27 March 2018 - 03:03 PM

A1 = 5.55
A2 = Kind of. There were 14 qualified starters with ERA's of 4.49+ last year. It's not that starters posting 4.50 ERAs are rare. It's that pitchers who post those ERAs for consecutive years are rare. A guy can have a bad season driven by luck. BABIP, a couple of his solo shots wind up being grand slams instead... those make big differences in ERA.

Teams look to shed pitchers who pitch at that 4.25+ level because they make it awfully hard to win games. 6 innings and 3ER (4.50 ERA) is treated as a quality start, but it's really not. Your team will probably allow at least one more ER over the last 3 innings of the game (ERA 3.00) which means your team needs to score 5 runs to win. The probability of scoring 5 runs in a game is far lower than 4 runs. Actually, that's the very basis of the "Ace" for the playoffs discussion. An Ace is expected to give you 7 innings at 2 ER. A #3 will give you 7 innings at 3 ER, which is still a solid start, but the expectations of winning are probably 80% in favor of the Ace's team at that point.


Yet, the Twins are stubbornly holding onto a guy that has been below 4.47 exactly once in 4 full seasons (145 + IP) and over 5 the last two. Indeed, an awful lot of posters on this board are placing a great deal of faith in this individual.

#51 Mr. Brooks

Mr. Brooks

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 5,656 posts

Posted 27 March 2018 - 03:15 PM

A bad contract is a bad contract, regardless of how you spin it.


Wait, I thought before you said you were giving your opinion?
A few posts later it's just a factually bad contract regardless of Mike's opinion?

#52 diehardtwinsfan

diehardtwinsfan

    Twins Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 12,409 posts
  • LocationThe charred ruins of BYTO

Posted 27 March 2018 - 05:06 PM

 

 

 

Question 2:Is a 4.50 SP really that rare these days?

 

For the record, the starting pitching average ERA for the AL in 2017 was 4.54. League average for both leagues was 4.49. 

 

I wouldn't call it rare, but I think it's far to echo what others have said that it's hard to find guys who can consistently pitch better than average. Part of that is health. Part of that is pitching is hard. I think saber in particular has changed a lot of that, especially with the focus on things like launch angles and what not. 


#53 KirbyDome89

KirbyDome89

    Rochester Red Wings

  • Members
  • 1,568 posts

Posted 27 March 2018 - 10:07 PM

 

The Darvish contract is one of the 10 worst in baseball. Let's see what Theo does with an anchor around his neck.

My guess would be he competes for another WS....

  • Twins33 likes this



Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: lance lynn, jose berrios, jake odorrizi, kyle gibson, phil hughes