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Article: Twins 2018 Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher

lance lynn jose berrios jake odorrizi kyle gibson phil hughes
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#21 howieramone2

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Posted 26 March 2018 - 09:59 AM

 

What do you base that on, exactly? Because it's not close to one of hte ten worst this year, or next....

I'm expressing my opinion, if that's okay. Two years if he's great, four more years if he sucks. Six years for 126-150M. It will easily be one of the 10 worst.

Edited by howieramone2, 26 March 2018 - 10:02 AM.

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#22 Thrylos

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Posted 26 March 2018 - 10:16 AM

 

 

 

In any case, this year's probable rotation had a simple mean 4.87 FIP (4.68 when Hughes is replaced by Santana) which would keep them at an identical rank of 23rd of 30 teams (or 22nd of 30 teams) based on last year.

Berrios = 3.84

Lynn = 4.82

Odorizzi = 5.43

Gibson = 4.85
Hughes = 5.43

Santana = 4.46 FIP

 

There's always the chance multiple arms take a step forward and Santana comes back without regression to his mediocre to poor FIPs, but I've long since learned if, if, if, and if happens isn't a great scenario for trying to predict your teams playoff or World Series potential.

 

Only issue with that train of thought is that those numbers were 2017 numbers and include Odorizzi playing mainly against the AL East, Lynn against the NL Central (both better than the 2017 AL Central that the rest of the numbers are).Also the AL Central competition in 2018 will be worse than that of 2017. I expect that the FIP numbers will go down, maybe down even half a run, just because of that, Santana and Hughes (who knows when they will be ready and how they will return) notwithstanding

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#23 yarnivek1972

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Posted 26 March 2018 - 10:28 AM

Those fangraph IP projections seem awfully low. Other than maybe Erv’s.

#24 gunnarthor

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Posted 26 March 2018 - 10:42 AM

The Twins have nice depth so they should be ok. The offense will lead them so the pitchers just have to be adequate and they look like they can pull that off. If Lynn or Ordozzi fail, we have Romero (who I like a lot) in the wings as well.

 

It'll also be fun to watch how Thorpe handles AA hitters. He's close and has some big upside.

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#25 Mike Sixel

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Posted 26 March 2018 - 10:47 AM

 

I'm expressing my opinion, if that's okay. Two years if he's great, four more years if he sucks. Six years for 126-150M. It will easily be one of the 10 worst.

 

I do agree years five and six will be interesting. I like him for the next four, so it's a matter of how much those first four years are worth, in terms of the cost of the last two.

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One of the best opening day rosters in years. Now go get 'em.


#26 Mike Sixel

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Posted 26 March 2018 - 10:48 AM

 

Those fangraph IP projections seem awfully low. Other than maybe Erv’s.

 

Hard to say. Not many pitchers pitch a lot of innings anymore....for many reasons. To me, this points out how RPs are becoming more important, as much as anything else.

One of the best opening day rosters in years. Now go get 'em.


#27 yarnivek1972

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Posted 26 March 2018 - 10:57 AM

Hard to say. Not many pitchers pitch a lot of innings anymore....for many reasons. To me, this points out how RPs are becoming more important, as much as anything else.


Sub 150 for Odirizzi and Lynn? That’s a 30 plus day stint on the DL. Sure, it can happen. But to project it seems overly pessimistic. They are projecting them with fewer IP than Erv, who we know will be out until at least May. And projecting less than 170 from Berrios. Sure, it’s 20 more than what he had at the MLB level last year, but it is 15 less than he had overall. And Berrios has no substantial injury history.
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#28 Mike Sixel

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Posted 26 March 2018 - 11:24 AM

I have no idea if they are right or not, I don't comment on them really at all, other than to point out teams are using RPs more in general. But it wouldn't shock me if those numbers were all correct. Less than sixty pitchers cracked 160 innings last year.
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One of the best opening day rosters in years. Now go get 'em.


#29 yarnivek1972

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Posted 26 March 2018 - 11:57 AM

fangraphs had the overall starting staff at 941 That’s about 5 2/3 per start. Probably about right. 56 from Hughes - as a starter - seems very high. Given that he is already heading to the DL, he’ll be lucky to get 20 as a starter.

#30 Vanimal46

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Posted 26 March 2018 - 12:00 PM

fangraphs had the overall starting staff at 941 That’s about 5 2/3 per start. Probably about right. 56 from Hughes - as a starter - seems very high. Given that he is already heading to the DL, he’ll be lucky to get 20 as a starter.


Is that official Hughes is going to the DL?

#31 yarnivek1972

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Posted 26 March 2018 - 12:14 PM

Is that official Hughes is going to the DL?


I thought I saw something here (like a Bernadino tweet or something) that said he was. Strained oblique.

#32 IndianaTwin

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Posted 26 March 2018 - 12:55 PM

 

True, but Santana also threw 30 more innings than in 2016, with 5 complete games and 3 shutouts. He carried a big portion of the load. If not for his impact the staff would've ranked near the bottom of the league again.

 

I agree with your point that without Ervin, they probably would have been near the bottom in 2017. My point is that the improvement from 30th to 23rd didn't primarily come from Ervin pitching better in 2017. It came from the improvement in other places, primarily from two spots in particular.

 

Ervin was huge last year. But in 2016, the starters overall ERA was 5.39. If you take out Ervin's 2016 starts and replace them with his 2017 starts (including the 30 extra innings), the starters ERA would have only dropped by 0.10 to 5.29, and they still would have been close to last.

 

However, going from 30th to 23rd was from the starters ERA dropping from 5.39 in 2016 to 4.73 in 2017, a net drop of 0.66. So my point was that if Ervin's improvement dropped the ERA by about 0.10, the remaining 0.56 came from improvements elsewhere.

 

So looking elsewhere, 2016 Gibson vs. 2017 Gibson was virtually a wash, as was 2016 Nolasco vs. 2017 Colon (really, I was surprised too!). 2017 Santiago was a tiny bit better than 2016 Millone and 2017 Hughes was a smidge better than 2016 Hughes, in each case in similar numbers of starts. 

 

I didn't go to the bother of totaling the riffraff of small-volume starters, other than to note that the leash was short on Turley, et al., in 2017, both in numbers of starts individuals got and in how long they lasted in a game. By contrast 2016 gave us 9 starts of Pat Dean (6.85).

 

If those were mostly a wash, where did the big improvement come from? Ultimately, it wasn't primarily from Ervin's slight improvement in 30 additional innings. Rather, it was from having...

  • 25 starts from Berrios (3.89) and 21 from Mejia (4.50) in 2017 (46 starts total)
  • vs. 26 starts from Duffey (6.43) and 14 starts from Berrios (8.02) in 2016 (40 starts total)  
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#33 DocBauer

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Posted 26 March 2018 - 01:18 PM

Best staff in years. Berrios will be better. Santana is still quality when healthy. Odorizzi is solid, should be much better this season healthy, and finished 2017 strong. Lynn adjusting to a new league, but also a full year recovered from surgery. And really, Gibson is your #5, not Hughes.

Excited we can dip down to Rochester for someone young and talented and not a street signing if need be.
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#34 Circus Boy

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Posted 26 March 2018 - 01:22 PM

 

I have this feeling that Lance Lynn is going to be a pleasant surprise, for some.Will go so far as make two predictions.One, he will have a better season than that Darvish guy; and two, he will like it here and they will shock everyone this July when the Twins extend him with a contract similar to what he was looking for this past winter.  

Lynn -- it rhymes with win. And Darvish will become the answer to "Whatsamattah Yu?"

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#35 Jham

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Posted 26 March 2018 - 01:28 PM

This is a far far deeper group than were accustomed to. I like that the season isn't hinged to a prospect becoming an instant star or a has been returning to form worth plan b being aaaa roulette. Out of the 10 or so guys who figure to make starts, hopefully we can find 5 or 6 who pitch well and 2-3 who tear it up.

Edited by Jham, 26 March 2018 - 01:29 PM.

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#36 SD Buhr

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Posted 26 March 2018 - 01:51 PM

 

The Twins have nice depth so they should be ok. The offense will lead them so the pitchers just have to be adequate and they look like they can pull that off. If Lynn or Ordozzi fail, we have Romero (who I like a lot) in the wings as well.

 

It'll also be fun to watch how Thorpe handles AA hitters. He's close and has some big upside.

Read into it what you will, but Thorpe was the SP for high-A Ft. Myers today on the back fields. There have obviously been several roster adjustments and I haven't seen the latest list, but he may be opening the season with the Miracle. Guess we will find out in about a week.

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#37 bean5302

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Posted 26 March 2018 - 01:53 PM

I was under the impression Darvishes escalators were cy young awards. If he wins 2 cy Young’s, the $150M will almost certainly be money well spent.

It’s possible Darvish melts down. I don’t think he will. I think he’s ripe for a really nice few years. I’m guessing 2-3 years as an ace, plus 2-3 years as a #2 and 0-2 years as a #3 would be completely reasonable. That’s be worth it.

#38 Nick Nelson

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Posted 26 March 2018 - 02:19 PM

 

If those were mostly a wash, where did the big improvement come from? Ultimately, it wasn't primarily from Ervin's slight improvement in 30 additional innings. Rather, it was from having...

  • 25 starts from Berrios (3.89) and 21 from Mejia (4.50) in 2017 (46 starts total)
  • vs. 26 starts from Duffey (6.43) and 14 starts from Berrios (8.02) in 2016 (40 starts total)  

 

All good points. I guess the real takeaway is this: Santana might not have primarily driven the improvement, but him delivering a quarter of the team's SP innings with a 3.28 ERA was a huge reason for whatever level of success they had in 2017. This year they won't be able to count on that again, both because he'll throw fewer innings and he's extremely unlikely to replicate that performance upon returning.

 

So the statement laid out in the 2nd-to-last paragraph fully stands.


#39 Danchat

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Posted 26 March 2018 - 03:23 PM

 

I thought I saw something here (like a Bernadino tweet or something) that said he was. Strained oblique.

I didn't see anything in Berardino's tweets but I did find a source here: https://www.twinciti...te-twins-plans/

 

If Hughes hits the 15 day DL, I wonder who the 5th starter would be. I think it could be Tyler Duffey or maybe even Fernando Romero, but I don't think these two are stretched out enough. Maybe Aaron Slegers? I don't think it'll be Gonsalves or Jorge.


#40 JLease

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Posted 26 March 2018 - 03:43 PM

 

Those fangraph IP projections seem awfully low. Other than maybe Erv’s.

 

My problem with the FanGraph ratings is they're assuming last season was the correct assessment of Odorizzi and Lynn's ability/performance when projecting their likely performance this season, rather than accounting for their total track record. Additionally, I don't love the way fWAR handles pitching; it's a metric of what they're saying the pitcher should have produced based on their peripherals, rather than what they actually did.

 

Now, Lance Lynn was probably lucky last season, considering the difference between his ERA and his FIP. But he was also coming off Tommy John and posted the worst FIP he'd ever had in the majors. So FanGraphs is projecting him to be basically that again using his career-worst FIP as the baseline but his career-average delta between his ERA and FIP as the measuring stick to get to his ERA? Ouch. That's a lot of regression to assume on a guy who is only 30. Additionally, they've assumed he'll only pitch 149 innings; since becoming a full-time starter he's never pitched less than 175. I get that they have to try to make some guessed on injury; there's no way a team gets through the year without guys missing some starts, but I can't say I love this guess. Why are they assuming Lynn throws 35 inning less than last season and Gibson 2?

 

Odorizzi suffers in similar fashion; they're weighing last season awfully heavily on a guy who has had a solid enough track record and reportedly pitched hurt last year. 

 

Something else to consider: the difference between 16 and 21 is 1 WAR. 

 

 

 




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