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Article: Opportunity Cost

kennys vargas robbie grossman lance lynn jake odorizzi logan morrison
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#41 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 12 March 2018 - 05:53 PM

Left out of the Opportunity Cost.... Sanchez. A total waste of $417,000. And I don't care what anybody spins.... the cost of doing business, that's nothing in the grand scope of overall payroll (tell Gibson that, someone that is actually going to stick around, when they couldn't even pony up a couple hundred grand to his arbitration event....), etc..... Sanchez, as said at the time, was a total waste and a bad decision. A total throw away of almost half a million. That is bad management.


They went to arbitration with Gibson so they could learn the process.

#42 h2oface

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Posted 12 March 2018 - 06:10 PM

 

They went to arbitration with Gibson so they could learn the process.

 

Because they don't know the process?.... in all their previous experiences and positions that got them the jobs they now have? Right. That's what was said, but I don't buy that spin at all. Hopefully, they already were well aware of the process.


#43 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 12 March 2018 - 07:18 PM

 

Because they don't know the process?.... in all their previous experiences and positions that got them the jobs they now have? Right. That's what was said, but I don't buy that spin at all. Hopefully, they already were well aware of the process.

They wanted the new management team to experience the process. Falvey and Levine, who probably have plenty of experience in the process already, aren't the people who go into the arbitration hearing and argue how much Gibson is worth (actually, I don't believe anyone from the team does at all, it's an MLB thing and the experience gained was probably through working with MLB).

 

You can choose not to believe that but when Gibson himself doesn't seem bothered by how it went down, getting upset about it seems a little ridiculous.

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#44 old nurse

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Posted 12 March 2018 - 09:20 PM

 

Disagree. 4.50 ERA in his rookie campaign with Swing and miss material. 10.5% S/M rate. that was higher than Berrios' 9.4%. Think he has a good chance to be a typical number 3 in the rotation in the future years..

Not ever has he averaged 6 innings a game. That is not a number 3.Swinging strike number is average. WHIP is way above average. They see it and don't swing at it and get a walk or the eventually see one and get a hit. As he will turn 25 there would be a lot of development in a short period of time,


#45 h2oface

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Posted 13 March 2018 - 03:25 AM

 

They wanted the new management team to experience the process. Falvey and Levine, who probably have plenty of experience in the process already, aren't the people who go into the arbitration hearing and argue how much Gibson is worth (actually, I don't believe anyone from the team does at all, it's an MLB thing and the experience gained was probably through working with MLB).

 

You can choose not to believe that but when Gibson himself doesn't seem bothered by how it went down, getting upset about it seems a little ridiculous.

 

Ah.... experience.... not learn, eh?

 

Gibson is smart. Why would he express anything but boiler plate? $200 - 300 thousand means nothing? If I were in his position, needing to keep getting the opportunities to pitch, I would do the same thing. It really doesn't bother me, but my spindar is definitely tingling. Hell, it isn't my money, so I always say spend! But what does bother me, is when I am assigned an emotion by someone else, especially if it is in a condescending fashion.

Edited by h2oface, 13 March 2018 - 03:48 AM.


#46 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 13 March 2018 - 06:02 AM

Ah.... experience.... not learn, eh?

Gibson is smart. Why would he express anything but boiler plate? $200 - 300 thousand means nothing? If I were in his position, needing to keep getting the opportunities to pitch, I would do the same thing. It really doesn't bother me, but my spindar is definitely tingling. Hell, it isn't my money, so I always say spend! But what does bother me, is when I am assigned an emotion by someone else, especially if it is in a condescending fashion.


But you don't mind assigning motives to the Twins FO for why they chose to take Gibson to arbitration?

#47 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 13 March 2018 - 06:03 AM

Not ever has he averaged 6 innings a game. That is not a number 3. Swinging strike number is average. WHIP is way above average. They see it and don't swing at it and get a walk or the eventually see one and get a hit. As he will turn 25 there would be a lot of development in a short period of time,


He averaged exactly 6 IP per start in 2016. Unless my math isn't what it used to be.
22 starts, 132 IP.

#48 old nurse

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Posted 13 March 2018 - 07:29 AM

 

He averaged exactly 6 IP per start in 2016. Unless my math isn't what it used to be.
22 starts, 132 IP.

One year of exactly 6My bad, Mejia has been pitching for how long?


#49 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 13 March 2018 - 07:38 AM

Ah.... experience.... not learn, eh?

Gibson is smart. Why would he express anything but boiler plate? $200 - 300 thousand means nothing? If I were in his position, needing to keep getting the opportunities to pitch, I would do the same thing. It really doesn't bother me, but my spindar is definitely tingling. Hell, it isn't my money, so I always say spend! But what does bother me, is when I am assigned an emotion by someone else, especially if it is in a condescending fashion.

What bothers me is when people speculate wildly without a speck of evidence to support their opinion. Doubly so when that speculation casts people in a negative light for no reason.
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#50 old nurse

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Posted 13 March 2018 - 07:58 AM

 

Left out of the Opportunity Cost.... Sanchez. A total waste of $417,000. And I don't care what anybody spins.... the cost of doing business, that's nothing in the grand scope of overall payroll (tell Gibson that, someone that is actually going to stick around, when they couldn't even pony up a couple hundred grand to his arbitration event....), etc.....Sanchez, as said at the time, was a total waste and a bad decision. A total throw away of almost half a million. That is bad management.

They as likely upped whatever they were offering Gibson just to get to the arbitration number, just as Gibson's agent lowered the asking price for arbitration.If Gibson was a free agent he might not see that kind of money.

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#51 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 13 March 2018 - 11:07 AM

One year of exactly 6 My bad, Mejia has been pitching for how long?


Is it common for minor league pitchers to average that many innings though?
I checked Kershaw, since he's arguably the best pitcher in baseball, and he never averaged 6 IP or more in the minors in any season.

#52 ashburyjohn

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Posted 13 March 2018 - 11:35 AM

Is it common for minor league pitchers to average that many innings though?
I checked Kershaw, since he's arguably the best pitcher in baseball, and he never averaged 6 IP or more in the minors in any season.

Age surely plays a role in this. Kershaw came up to the majors at 20. Being on an innings limit at that age would seem standard.

 

I compared game logs for Mejia and Berrios while writing my erlier post in the Lefties thread, and Berrios did indeed go deeper into games than Mejia during his stint in the high minors. But then, I'm not claiming Mejia has the same high-end potential than Berrios. Just - not so fast - let's not give up on him as a possible workhorse quite yet.

A slim chance equals a fat chance, yet a wise man and a wise guy are opposites.


#53 old nurse

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Posted 13 March 2018 - 11:43 AM

 

Is it common for minor league pitchers to average that many innings though?
I checked Kershaw, since he's arguably the best pitcher in baseball, and he never averaged 6 IP or more in the minors in any season.

Strange comp. Mejia is no Kershaw. Kershaw spent only one full year in the minors and pitchedon average more than 6 inning per game since he was 22. So Mejia can be Kershaw. Love the optimism

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#54 Twins33

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Posted 13 March 2018 - 12:00 PM

Is it common for minor league pitchers to average that many innings though?
I checked Kershaw, since he's arguably the best pitcher in baseball, and he never averaged 6 IP or more in the minors in any season.

I remember during the Dozier rumors that anytime a Twins fan would question JDL or any other Dodger prospects small amount of IP per season the Dodgers fans would reply that they don't allow any of their SP prospects to pitch deep into games routinely.

So some kind of Dodger development plan? I don't know. I never checked to back this up.

Just looked at Brock Stewart, in the two seasons before his MLB callup he averaged less than six innings and it's not because he was pitching badly...based on the stats. So maybe true about the Dodgers? I'm not going to go through all their prospects to find out. Plus injuries etc may skew the numbers and be even more work to weed out.

Edited by Twins33, 13 March 2018 - 12:05 PM.


#55 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 13 March 2018 - 02:34 PM

Strange comp. Mejia is no Kershaw. Kershaw spent only one full year in the minors and pitched on average more than 6 inning per game since he was 22. So Mejia can be Kershaw. Love the optimism


Wasn't meant to be a comp. I'm just curious if it's common for any milb pitcher to average that many innings? I don't know. I just looked at Kershaw because there is zero doubt he's a great pitcher.

I'm genuinely curious how often milb pitchers average 6+ per start.

#56 ashburyjohn

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Posted 13 March 2018 - 05:49 PM

Wasn't meant to be a comp. I'm just curious if it's common for any milb pitcher to average that many innings? I don't know. I just looked at Kershaw because there is zero doubt he's a great pitcher.

I'm genuinely curious how often milb pitchers average 6+ per start.

Going the other direction from Kershaw, how about Corey Kluber, who is undeniably a fine pitcher but who took a while to hit his stride. In 2011 at age 25 he made 27 starts at AAA Columbus, totaling 150 innings. That's just above five and a half innings - approximately his rate the previous 3 seasons too. The next season he was also at Columbus and started 21 games for 125 innings - stepping up to nearly 6 innings per at age 26.

 

Carlos Carrasco by contrast looks like he was averaging 6 innings per start for 5 years in the minors.

 

Think of some other pitchers and see what else you find.

A slim chance equals a fat chance, yet a wise man and a wise guy are opposites.


#57 gil4

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Posted 14 March 2018 - 06:14 AM

 

Grossman is SCARY in the outfield.He has run into Santana, Polanco and Buxton.He made more errors than all LFers in the league in 2016 in just SEVENTY FIVE games.

 

I don't understand why people keep referring to him as a "fourth outfielder". That means if someone goes down he is next man up out there.

He was better in 2017 and he was better prior to 2016 in the field. He had a bad year with the glove in 2016. I'm not sure why - maybe he had some communication issues playing with some young guys, maybe he didn't put as much work into that side of the ball that year. I think I remember him acknowledging some struggles and putting extra work in to get better during the offseason prior to last year.


#58 AWOLNATION_11

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Posted 14 March 2018 - 07:47 AM

 

Left out of the Opportunity Cost.... Sanchez. A total waste of $417,000. And I don't care what anybody spins.... the cost of doing business, that's nothing in the grand scope of overall payroll (tell Gibson that, someone that is actually going to stick around, when they couldn't even pony up a couple hundred grand to his arbitration event....), etc.....Sanchez, as said at the time, was a total waste and a bad decision. A total throw away of almost half a million. That is bad management.

I'm not so much concerned that they wasted $417,000, but glad that they have the type of relationship with Pohlad that they could pivot to Lynn even though it was a waste of $417,000.  


#59 ashburyjohn

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Posted 14 March 2018 - 10:37 AM

I'm not so much concerned that they wasted $417,000, but glad that they have the type of relationship with Pohlad that they could pivot to Lynn even though it was a waste of $417,000.  

I continue to believe that Pohlad doesn't stoop to that level of detail in the business. He likely does two big things, in conjunction with Dave St Peter: sets a general budget limit, and is in the approval chain for any contract longer than two years. Contracts of no more than two years will not be a likely burden to the next GM, if such a change would prove to be necessary. (If the front office were on thin ice, that approval process might become active for any multi-year contract.)

A slim chance equals a fat chance, yet a wise man and a wise guy are opposites.


#60 biscuit

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Posted 14 March 2018 - 11:38 AM

I think Kennys Vargas is out.He has the potential to be a David Ortiz type hitter.But there's that word again - potential.Good luck to you, Kennys.




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