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Article: Opportunity Cost

kennys vargas robbie grossman lance lynn jake odorizzi logan morrison
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#21 sftwinsfan

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Posted 11 March 2018 - 08:30 PM

I think Hildenberger will have to pitch himself out of a job this spring.He was pretty solid last year and had dominated the minors. Biggest impacts likely on Mejia, Vargas, Grossman, and Granite.I have a feeling Grossman will be the 4th OF and Granite goes to the minors.Grossman can pinch-hit off the bench and is a switch-hitter.He also takes professional at-bats.You can send Granite to AAA and if/when an OF goes on the DL, then you call up Granite to fill in as an every-day OF.  

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#22 ChrisKnutson

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Posted 11 March 2018 - 08:39 PM

Imo, this what "should" happen.

 

Bullpen: Have Alan Buesnitz and Adalberto Mejia round out the last 2 spots (has experience). AAA depth; Curtiss, Reed, Moya, Kinley (trade Aaron Slegers and Tyler Duffey to Fish) are next in line. 

 

Bench: Go with Ehire Adrianza, Robbie Grossman, Eduardo Escobar, Mitch Garver. Next in line should be Zack Granite, Ryan Lamarre, and Erick Aybar.

 

And if Sano gets suspended just reward a reliever to get some looks against MLB batters (likely Fernando Romero). There's no need to call on Erick Aybar when your bench has Adrianza and Escobar, we were fine without Sano at the end of 2017 anyways. 

 

 

Look to trade Phil Huhges, Kennys Vargas, Ehire Adrianza (sell high), Erick Aybar, Tyler Duffey, and Aaron Slegers (nothing to prove in AAA) for a catching prospect, a so-so RH bench bat, or another lefty reliever.

 

 


#23 mikelink45

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Posted 11 March 2018 - 09:53 PM

 

Maybe.But that was a horrible bullpen.And he is a novelty type of pitcher.And novelty (unlike stuff) tends to wear out.

Some people might argue that Busenitz was or that Belisle was or that Kintzler was...

 

Kinda tough to point at the one-eyed person among the blind and saying that he should be around...

I think a bullpen is stronger when it does have a "novelty" pitcher.A change of arm angle, a knuckleball, anything that throws off the opposition is good.Neshek is a good example and has created an excellent career.

 

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#24 jsteve96

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Posted 11 March 2018 - 10:40 PM

 


Mejia is NOT a longterm player for the Twins. 

Disagree. 4.50 ERA in his rookie campaign with Swing and miss material. 10.5% S/M rate. that was higher than Berrios' 9.4%. Think he has a good chance to be a typical number 3 in the rotation in the future years..

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#25 Thegrin

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Posted 11 March 2018 - 11:25 PM

Keep Vargas.  his hitting is timely. Morrison can play OF at least as well as Grossman.

 

I'd like to see Granite in rotation with our other OF.  Nothing still falls but raindrops.  But Granite will probably be sent to AAA and brought up if someone is injured. 

 

Escobar is a proven backup in the infield. no others are needed at this time.

 

 

:)

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#26 twinstalker

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Posted 12 March 2018 - 02:51 AM

 

Imo, this what "should" happen.

 

Bullpen: Have Alan Buesnitz and Adalberto Mejia round out the last 2 spots (has experience). AAA depth; Curtiss, Reed, Moya, Kinley (trade Aaron Slegers and Tyler Duffey to Fish) are next in line. 

 

Bench: Go with Ehire Adrianza, Robbie Grossman, Eduardo Escobar, Mitch Garver. Next in line should be Zack Granite, Ryan Lamarre, and Erick Aybar.

 

And if Sano gets suspended just reward a reliever to get some looks against MLB batters (likely Fernando Romero). There's no need to call on Erick Aybar when your bench has Adrianza and Escobar, we were fine without Sano at the end of 2017 anyways. 

 

 

Look to trade Phil Huhges, Kennys Vargas, Ehire Adrianza (sell high), Erick Aybar, Tyler Duffey, and Aaron Slegers (nothing to prove in AAA) for a catching prospect, a so-so RH bench bat, or another lefty reliever.

 

I would trade Granite, Grossman and Escobar for Mike Trout, who could play vs lhp instead of Kepler and back up Buxton in CF. It's always fun when you don't have to consider the other team's considerations and restrictions! Heck, we're not even paying attention to the Twins' restrictions.

 

Just so this post is somewhat constructive: a number of names above can not be traded, either procedure-wise or in practicality. Nor are teams looking to add players who need to be kept on the 25 and/or 40 man rosters.

 

If Vargas is dealt, it's after clearing waivers and being dealt to a team that will offer the infamous PTBNL or cash. I don't think Aybar can be dealt unless he makes the team, as he has an opt out. Trade Phil Hughes?That's what Terry Ryan needed to do after 2014, in hindsight, instead of extending him (not in hindsight). It should go without saying that a deal involving Hughes is impossible. 

 

It's possible there's a team out there that has some space on the 40 man for Duffey, but they're not going to pay for that. He's the definition of replacement level.

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#27 shs_59

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Posted 12 March 2018 - 03:39 AM

My prediction

Catchers: Castro , Wilson (2)
Infielders: Mauer, Morrison, Vargas, Dozier, Polanco , Escobar , Sano , Aybar. (8)
Outfielders: Rosie, Buck Ya , Max
Robbie Grossman (4)

Pitchers SP : Berrios, Odorizzi, Lynn, Gibson (4)

Relievers : Rodney, Pressly , Reed , Duke , Rogers , Kinley , Hughes


Top AAA options : Garver , Ehire Adrianza , Nick Gordon , Zach Granite , Curtiss, Slegers ,May , Gonsalves , Romero, Moya , Reed.

Twins Prospects? 1 S. Gonsalves  2. N. Gordon  3. Tyler Jay

4. A. Kirilloff  5. Romero, Fernando  6. Mejia, Alberto  7. K. Stewart

8.J.T. Chargois  9. Wells, Lac. 10. D. Palka  11. Wade, LaM. 12. Nic Burdi


#28 shs_59

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Posted 12 March 2018 - 03:43 AM

7 Relievers w/ Hughes as the long-man. *** Hildenberger*** starting yr. off as 8th inning set-up guy for AAA Rochester . (prob just April and maybe May)

Twins Prospects? 1 S. Gonsalves  2. N. Gordon  3. Tyler Jay

4. A. Kirilloff  5. Romero, Fernando  6. Mejia, Alberto  7. K. Stewart

8.J.T. Chargois  9. Wells, Lac. 10. D. Palka  11. Wade, LaM. 12. Nic Burdi


#29 Doctor Wu

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Posted 12 March 2018 - 06:15 AM

 

Imo, this what "should" happen.

 

Bullpen: Have Alan Buesnitz and Adalberto Mejia round out the last 2 spots (has experience). AAA depth; Curtiss, Reed, Moya, Kinley (trade Aaron Slegers and Tyler Duffey to Fish) are next in line.

If you are suggesting that the Twins trade Slegers and Duffy to make room for Kinley, I don't think that would --- or should --- happen. At this point, with 2 weeks left in ST, Kinley is going to have to flash some real magic to make this club. He doesn't appear to be the second coming ofJohan Santana, so I don't think we'll regret losing him.


#30 bighat

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Posted 12 March 2018 - 06:21 AM

It's pretty clear the Twins signed Morrison because they think he's better than Vargas. They were essentially given the opportunity to sign Morrison - knowing that they'd lose Kennys if they did it.They took the deal.

 

It's too bad, like others have said Kennys looks like a guy who can hit 30+ homers with 500 AB.But Morrison hit 38 last year, and it appears the Twins prefer the sure thing over giving Vargas a shot. So be it.Here's hoping Kennys catches on with another team.I sure hope it ain't in the AL, because I'd hate seeing him hit 35 HRs for anyone in the Central, or the Red Sox, or frankly any team the Twins play more than once a year.

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#31 killertwinfan

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Posted 12 March 2018 - 06:34 AM

 

It seems almost impossible for Tyler Kinely to make the Twins staff - if Duffey is being left off then no way Kinely makes it. Hindsight is 20-20 but that makes the decision not to protect Burdi (who could be sent to the DL and not take up a 40 man spot until late summer) even worse. They essentially gave him up for nothing. He may not pan out and again, 20-20 hindsight, but that's not ideal.

 

P.S. By my calculations, Duffey has options left since he has only been down to the minors twice since hitting the bigs and is still in his first five years of service time. Can someone confirm that? What a nice piece to have waiting at AAA but tough for the Duff Man. He certainly seemed likely to make the team before this crazy offseason.

I would like to understand the rationale that set up this move. Yes, 20/20 hindsight shows this move to be odd, however, it never seemed to make sense.It seems like when Burdi went high in the rule 5 draft, the FO panicked to make a move to offset the loss.Pulling at straws here.Like I have said in the past, this FO, is making great strides and this one seems out of step with everything else they have done.  


#32 MN_ExPat

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Posted 12 March 2018 - 07:16 AM

 

Maybe.But that was a horrible bullpen.And he is a novelty type of pitcher.And novelty (unlike stuff) tends to wear out.

Some people might argue that Busenitz was or that Belisle was or that Kintzler was...

 

Kinda tough to point at the one-eyed person among the blind and saying that he should be around...

Novelty type of pitcher? Just because he throws sidearm?  

 

So he's kind of like Neshek was/is a novelty type pitcher? Because he hasn't had any type of success in professional baseball at all.

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#33 Tomj14

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Posted 12 March 2018 - 08:29 AM

 

. What happens if you give a guy like the 500 at bats?

 

 

IMO he gets exposed for the player he is.


#34 spycake

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Posted 12 March 2018 - 08:33 AM

 

It seems almost impossible for Tyler Kinely to make the Twins staff - if Duffey is being left off then no way Kinely makes it. Hindsight is 20-20 but that makes the decision not to protect Burdi (who could be sent to the DL and not take up a 40 man spot until late summer) even worse. They essentially gave him up for nothing. He may not pan out and again, 20-20 hindsight, but that's not ideal.

Agreed. What's even weirder is that we managed to sign/acquire 7 MLB players this offseason, and didn't need Kinley's 40-man roster spot (or Vargas's) to add any of them. Obviously we were helped by the slow market, but I don't think we ever expected to return Kinley before mid-March either. And if we didn't like Burdi, it seems like Bard or Chargois would have been realistic possibilities to keep too, even without the benefit of the 60-day DL.

 

Not a huge deal, obviously marginal gains/losses compared to our main offseason moves, but worth noting among obsessive baseball fans. :)

 

Of course, Kinley could still make the team, if we carry 12 pitchers and Hughes is our 5th SP / long reliever.

 

P.S. By my calculations, Duffey has options left since he has only been down to the minors twice since hitting the bigs and is still in his first five years of service time. Can someone confirm that?

You are correct. Duffey actually has 2 option years remaining -- he only spent 7 days on optional assignment in 2015, so he didn't use one there. His only option year used so far was in 2016.

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#35 Tomj14

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Posted 12 March 2018 - 08:46 AM

 

Keep Vargas.  his hitting is timely. Morrison can play OF at least as well as Grossman.

 

In the last 3 years.(avg/obp)

None on - .267/.325

Runners on - .214/.289

scoring position - .207/.267

bases loaded - .235/.211

leading off - .244/.308

scoring position 2 outs -.147/.227

 

Is that clutch?

 

Also last year they thought so much of him as a right handed hitter, they gave him 65 at bats and hit .185, he was good the two years prior.

Edited by Tomj14, 12 March 2018 - 08:49 AM.

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#36 jkcarew

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Posted 12 March 2018 - 08:46 AM

 

Morrison can play OF at least as well as Grossman.

No. He. Can't.

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#37 dbminn

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Posted 12 March 2018 - 09:39 AM

Vargas is definitely the odd man out. He still has a chance to be a good DH but I don't think it will be with the Twins. I could see him DH for the White Sox (or maybe the Rays). Otherwise, he should go overseas and get some PA.

 

If Sano isn't with the team to start the season, IMO bench will be: Garver, Grossman, Granite and Adrianza. Granite to AAA when Sano is available. A surprise might be LaMarre instead of Granite to start the season. Let Granite get his ups in AAA to start the year and let the older guy sit on the bench.

 

I predict Hughes starts the season on the DL. He's released in mid-April if his stuff doesn't come back. He's not Falvine's guy. Duffey or Mejia in long relief to start the season. 

 

Twins will try and keep Kinley. Easy velo with a nice slider. I think his mechanics are pretty reasonable (based on a whole two innings of TV). Either he clears waivers and they make a trade with Miami or Pressly could be out.This is my "hot take" impact. IMO, Pressly is a little like Vargas - a lot of talent but maybe no room.


#38 ewen21

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Posted 12 March 2018 - 02:32 PM

 

"I don't understand why people keep referring to him as a "fourth outfielder". That means if someone goes down he is next man up out there."

Because that's what they're used him as since he's been here.

 

That's the same rationale as, "it's this way because this is the way we have done it the last two years"

 

Because we used him as a 4th outfielder doesn't mean it has to continue for a third year.Seriously, it seems like some people feel like Grossman needs to be here.He does not.He is a perfect example of someone who can be easily replaced by a better player at virtually the same cost.


#39 h2oface

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Posted 12 March 2018 - 04:38 PM

Left out of the Opportunity Cost.... Sanchez. A total waste of $417,000. And I don't care what anybody spins.... the cost of doing business, that's nothing in the grand scope of overall payroll (tell Gibson that, someone that is actually going to stick around, when they couldn't even pony up a couple hundred grand to his arbitration event....), etc.....Sanchez, as said at the time, was a total waste and a bad decision. A total throw away of almost half a million. That is bad management.

Edited by h2oface, 12 March 2018 - 04:40 PM.


#40 spycake

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Posted 12 March 2018 - 05:05 PM

The Sanchez guarantee was indeed strange, even if it was on the margins of roster and payroll. He had minor league deal, nonroster invite written all over him. And he signed right at the same time as we acquired Odorizzi, and we knew about the slow market for Lynn/Cobb, so it's not like we were that desperate at the time.
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