Really? I hadn't heard anyone talking about this and I was assuming Dozier would get $60-80M tops on a new deal. I would offer Dozier a deal in the 4 year $60-70M range but if someone's offering $90-100M, then that's goodbye.
I found this excerpt from Souhan's column on Dozier earlier this week telling.
“I think teams have gotten a lot smarter, and they really break down the numbers,” [Dozier] said. “The biggest thing in free agency is really making sure agents know their players’ value, and that their players understand that.
“And how teams are evaluating players — that if you hit 30 home runs and drive in 80 and you’re one-dimensional and your WAR is a .8 you aren’t going to get paid like players used to. If you’ve had a high WAR for many years, I think you’ll do all right.”
He gets it. Over the past two years Dozier has 10.8 WAR -- 13th most in baseball among hitters. The guys around him? Justin Turner, Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, Freddie Freeman.
I don't think there's any question the latter three would be looking at deals in the 100M range as free agents. Turner got 4/64 from LA as a 32-year-old last offseason but he didn't have nearly the track record of Dozier, nor the entrenched rep as a leader and clubhouse staple.
The landscape of free agency is changing, yes, but modern front offices still recognize and highly value WAR and other stats where Dozier rates well. And it'll probably be a different story once some of the big players reset their luxury tax penalties.