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Other SP trade candidates: Aaron Nola, any others that you like?

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#1 bcs4

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 08:08 AM

I'd love to have Archer, but just glancing down SP numbers, hows about Aaron Nola? The Phillies stink, so I'd imagine that they have some needs. On second thought, with their record, I KNOW they have lots of needs. Says they're looking for a veteran starter (my interpretation: "innings eater", but I could be wrong), but there are plenty of those guys around. Maybe sign some dud for them and then trade the dud + others for Nola. I dunno much about the guy or the Phils.. Just an idea.

 

Any other candidates that you can see?

Edited by bcs4, 13 February 2018 - 08:12 AM.


#2 spycake

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 08:28 AM

Nola is considered to have one of the top trade values in MLB:

https://www.fangraph...-value-1-to-10/

He was the 15th best pitcher in baseball by bWAR (4.5), right around Kershaw and deGrom. He is still being paid league minimum this year and is controlled for 4 more seasons. He might be more expensive than Archer, just by virtue of Philadelphia having less financial incentive to deal than Tampa.

Also, there is no such thing as a "sign and trade" in baseball. Philadelphia would just sign the free agent starter themselves in your scenario.
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#3 bcs4

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 09:11 AM

Dang, no sign and trade? I didn't know that. I suppose it makes sense for them to buy their own pitcher anyway.

 

Then give them $60 -$100 mil and some prospects depending on the cash amount?


#4 Mike Sixel

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 10:07 AM

The Phillies are a season away from adding legit free agents to supplement their roster. They aren't trading a cornerstone of their rebuild.
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I remain hopeful on Buxton and Sano.....but I'd not bet the franchise on them.


#5 clutterheart

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 10:19 AM

If Twins wanted Nola they could've drafted him in 2014.

Sigh.Thats draft could be a bummer  


#6 bcs4

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 10:29 AM

 

The Phillies are a season away from adding legit free agents to supplement their roster. They aren't trading a cornerstone of their rebuild.

 

Isn't every team? Their payroll history doesn't seem to show that trend. What are you seeing?


#7 bcs4

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 10:32 AM

 

If Twins wanted Nola they could've drafted him in 2014.

Sigh.Thats draft could be a bummer  

 

So you don't think they'd be interested because they didn't draft him in 2014?


#8 Vanimal46

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 10:38 AM

Okay, I'll bite. If you want to make a deal for Nola, who has 4 years of control left and already one of the best pitchers in baseball...

The Twins would most likely have to give up Lewis, Gonsalves/Romero, Kepler/Rosario if they want an MLB ready player, and Gordon.

#9 bcs4

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 10:50 AM

 

Okay, I'll bite. If you want to make a deal for Nola, who has 4 years of control left and already one of the best pitchers in baseball...

The Twins would most likely have to give up Lewis, Gonsalves/Romero, Kepler/Rosario if they want an MLB ready player, and Gordon.

 

Not if they gave them $60 to $100 mil over 3 or 4 years. Maybe I'm missing something, is there a restriction on teams paying that much in a trade?

 


#10 Vanimal46

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 10:55 AM

Not if they gave them $60 to $100 mil over 3 or 4 years. Maybe I'm missing something, is there a restriction on teams paying that much in a trade?


So you're saying the Twins would give the Phillies $60-100 million in cash? Has that ever happened in a trade before?

#11 bcs4

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 10:59 AM

 

So you're saying the Twins would give the Phillies $60-100 million in cash? Has that ever happened in a trade before?

 

Well, yes, unless they can't by some restriction.How would that be different from Darvish?


#12 spycake

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 10:59 AM

 

Not if they gave them $60 to $100 mil over 3 or 4 years. Maybe I'm missing something, is there a restriction on teams paying that much in a trade?

Commissioner's office has to approve cash amounts more than $1 mil, I think. It's a formality for small amounts of cash, but I'm pretty sure $60-100 mil would be invalidated. There is no modern precedent for anything like that.

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#13 spycake

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 11:03 AM

 

Well, yes, unless they can't by some restriction.How would that be different from Darvish?

The money would be going to the team, not the player.

 

Charlie Finley tried it with Oakland in the 1970's and was mostly blocked by the commissioner.  It would take a special kind of cheap owner in a cheap market to even attempt anything like that. Even then, it would probably be in the form of player salary -- say, if the Phillies had Pujols and wanted to get out of his contract, the Twins could take on his whole salary and get a good prospect/player in return. But even that is pretty limited/rare.

 

Keep in mind top prospects can basically be worth $50+ mil all be themselves, just in future potential. A guy like Nola, already established as one of MLB's top starters, is probably worth a lot more than that and isn't available for cash.

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#14 Vanimal46

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 11:04 AM

Commissioner's office has to approve cash amounts more than $1 mil, I think. It's a formality for small amounts of cash, but I'm pretty sure $60-100 mil would be invalidated. There is no modern precedent for anything like that.


If there was a precedent don't let the Pohlad's know! I don't want to trade Dozier away for $20 million :)
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#15 bcs4

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 11:05 AM

 

Commissioner's office has to approve cash amounts more than $1 mil, I think. It's a formality for small amounts of cash, but I'm pretty sure $60-100 mil would be invalidated. There is no modern precedent for anything like that.

 

Ahhh.I understand now. Thanks for the info!

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#16 spycake

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 11:06 AM

 

Okay, I'll bite. If you want to make a deal for Nola, who has 4 years of control left and already one of the best pitchers in baseball...

The Twins would most likely have to give up Lewis, Gonsalves/Romero, Kepler/Rosario if they want an MLB ready player, and Gordon.

I'm not even sure that would do it. The Phillies probably expect to be leaving their rebuild very soon, as evidenced by the Carlos Santana signing, and with Nola leading the way. Exchanging Nola for Lewis etc., even if it were to make sense by some on-paper valuations, would set them back at least a few years.

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#17 howieramone2

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 11:06 AM

 

So you don't think they'd be interested because they didn't draft him in 2014?

I like Nola also. He was labeled quick to the The Show, but with a ceiling of a #3. I would take a shot if he's available. 


#18 Vanimal46

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 11:08 AM

I'm not even sure that would do it. The Phillies probably expect to be leaving their rebuild very soon, as evidenced by the Carlos Santana signing, and with Nola leading the way. Exchanging Nola for Lewis etc., even if it were to make sense by some on-paper valuations, would set them back at least a few years.


Agreed. I think there's a 0% chance Nola is even on the trade block. Just wanted to show how truly expensive it would be to pull off. And even with all of those names it's probably not enough for Philadelphia to do it.

#19 spycake

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 11:09 AM

 

I admit that I didn't know about the sign trade thing, but why would you think it would be fantasy? The Phillies look like they're lots more than Nola away from contention. Isn't Archer important to the Tampa? Why would they trade him?

Buying a young player for $60-100 mil cash is pretty much fantasy.

 

The Rays are in a much worse market than the Phils, so they are pretty cost-conscious. Not to the point of selling players, but they can probably be persuaded to deal for more prospects. Still probably not cheap, if one values Lewis around $50 mil, etc.


#20 Oxtung

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 11:20 AM

 

I admit that I didn't know about the sign trade thing, but why would you think it would be fantasy? The Phillies look like they're lots more than Nola away from contention. Isn't Archer important to the Tampa? Why would they trade him?

 

In general trades go one of two ways. First, a team that is on a downward trend (like Tampa) might trade veterans for prospects to try and speed their rebuild up and return to contention. Second, a team at the top or on the way up (like the Phillies) might trade prospects for veterans to try and reach contention more quickly and create a larger window during which they are competitive.

 

Another way to look at it is this: Nola will absolutely be in his prime when the Phillies are looking to contend next. It is likely Archer will have lost considerable value when the Rays are next in their window of contention.

Edited by Oxtung, 13 February 2018 - 11:20 AM.

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