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Article: Spring Training Storylines: Pitchers And Catchers

jose berrios ervin santana kyle gibson fernando rodney addison reed
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#21 Vanimal46

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 09:33 AM

If the team feels that Romero and Gonsalves are long-term rotation pieces, then this April (before Santana returns and if they don't add anyone new by FA or trade) might be a perfect time to get their feet wet and see how they perform. You'll recall that Berrios, even with his sparkling AAA stats, bounced back and forth a bit before he found his footing in the majors. If either of these two guys take off, we'll forget about signing outside help, and if not, they can go back down for some more seasoning and prepare for a late-season call-up.

Frankly, I'd rather do that, knowing that they'll probably be on a short leash, than take the Terry Ryan approach of waiting until after June 1 before calling these guys up just so they don't reach Super Two status, assuming that they'll stick and not have to go back down.


Right, Berrios struggled mightily in the majors even with sparkly AAA stats. So Romero and Gonsalves are different and do well in the majors with no AAA experience to think of?

I don't think some realize how huge of an ask it is to jump from AA to MLB as a pitcher.
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#22 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 09:38 AM

 

Right, Berrios struggled mightily in the majors even with sparkly AAA stats. So Romero and Gonsalves are different and do well in the majors with no AAA experience to think of?

I don't think some realize how huge of an ask it is to jump from AA to MLB as a pitcher.

Never mind that calling up a legitimate prospect for Opening Day is kind of a bad idea.

 

In that situation, you're secretly hoping the player will struggle and force a demotion so you get back that extra year of control.

 

So where's the upside? If you give that player a month or two in AAA, get a better read on his ability, then you can promote him, let him struggle through issues, and gain an additional year of control.

 

I don't give a rat's ass about Super Two status but that extra year of control is important, especially if the downside is losing three weeks at the front of that player's career.

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#23 USAFChief

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 09:39 AM

I don't think there's even a 1 percent chance of Romero breaking camp with the Twins.

 

 

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#24 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 09:42 AM

 

I don't think there's even a 1 percent chance of Romero breaking camp with the Twins.

Considering how many pitchers have AAA experience in front of him, I don't see why the Twins would even consider promoting him.

 

Fernando Romero is a good, not great, prospect who has several capable pitchers (of varying degrees) in front of him in the organization. Why would you leapfrog that guy to the majors before he pitches a single inning of AAA ball?


#25 Vanimal46

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 09:44 AM

Never mind that calling up a legitimate prospect for Opening Day is kind of a bad idea.

In that situation, you're secretly hoping the player will struggle and force a demotion so you get back that extra year of control.

So where's the upside? If you give that player a month or two in AAA, get a better read on his ability, then you can promote him, let him struggle through issues, and gain an additional year of control.

I don't give a rat's ass about Super Two status but that extra year of control is important, especially if the downside is losing three weeks at the front of that player's career.

I forgot about that. Great point. At the very least, wait until whatever that date is to get the additional year of control.

Like you though I want both of those players to get a month or 2 of AAA experience before considering a call up.

Edited by Vanimal46, 13 February 2018 - 09:44 AM.


#26 JLease

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 10:22 AM

Spring Training is all about the pitching staff for this club. Figuring out the rotation, settling roles in the bullpen, and working out whether or not this team can survive the first month with only 12 pitchers.

 

I have to assume they're going to either make a trade or sign someone for the rotation. There's just no way we can start the season with it being Berrios, Meija, Gibson, May, and Duffey (or any of the minor league guys filling out the back end.) we'd need 14 pitchers, minimum, to stay afloat until Ervin comes back because none of those guys has shown consistent ability to go late in games. (I just can't trust Gibson any longer. I promoted him for the last two spring trainings as a guy ready to take the leap forward and he's crushed my hopes every time with his secret identity as The Tease. Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it's enemy action. Not letting it happen to me again!)

 

I feel better about the bullpen than I have in a while; the combination of MLB-ready prospects, guys returning from injury, and veteran reinforcements makes me think we might be solid out the gate instead of floundering.

 

The lineup is good to go: Garver slots in at backup catcher and helps gives some guys a day off if he shows he can hit enough. I'd like to see Granite as a 4th OF, but I'm not sure he's going to hit enough. but he'd make a great late-game defensive replacement and let Buxton get some days off.


#27 Thrylos

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 10:33 AM

 

I don't think there's even a 1 percent chance of Romero breaking camp with the Twins.

 

Considering how many pitchers have AAA experience in front of him, I don't see why the Twins would even consider promoting him.

 

Fernando Romero is a good, not great, prospect who has several capable pitchers (of varying degrees) in front of him in the organization. Why would you leapfrog that guy to the majors before he pitches a single inning of AAA ball?

 

I would agree up to a point, but for a different reason:

 

The biggest issue that Romero has right now is endurance.The max innings he ever pitched in a season are 125, last season.And from those, the last 20 or so in August were ugly, because he ran out of steam.So he has been an 100 inning guy in the minors so far, which means that there is no way that he can be a 200 inning guy in the majors in 2018. 

 

2019 is a different story and if he builds up to 150+ good innings this season, he will be there.That should be the Twins goal for him in 2018, which makes any thought about him being part of their pen, kinda contrary to the big picture regarding him.Now where he starts the season is debatable.I actually can see him pitch earlier in the season in the majors, if he is hot, rather than in September when he might be out of gas.

 

About the last sentence: Romero has the highest potential and best stuff of all the Twins starting pitchers that are ready or near ready, and his stuff, unlike Gonsalves's top of the zone stuff, has a high probability to play in the majors.I have not seen Littell pitch in person.Romero is close to, if maybe a step behind of, Berrios as far as ceiling goes.But the endurance (and the changeup, for Berrios also btw) is an issue.

 

Edited by Thrylos, 13 February 2018 - 10:35 AM.

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#28 gocgo

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 10:52 AM

I just don't see Hughes in the rotation to start the season...bullpen maybe.There are only 2 games in April where we need a 5th starter, so I see us breaking camp with 4 starters and a heavy bullpen.When the time comes for a 5th starter, they can fill in by bringing up a AAA guy like Slegers to give them a start and swap out a bull pen guy that has options (heavy bullpen becomes normal size).I think they can piece things together with a 4 man rotation and fill ins until Erv is back.I do think they will add a starter via FA to go with the 3 locks though.

Edited by gocgo, 13 February 2018 - 10:53 AM.

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#29 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 11:18 AM

 

I would agree up to a point, but for a different reason:

 

The biggest issue that Romero has right now is endurance.The max innings he ever pitched in a season are 125, last season.And from those, the last 20 or so in August were ugly, because he ran out of steam.So he has been an 100 inning guy in the minors so far, which means that there is no way that he can be a 200 inning guy in the majors in 2018. 

 

2019 is a different story and if he builds up to 150+ good innings this season, he will be there.That should be the Twins goal for him in 2018, which makes any thought about him being part of their pen, kinda contrary to the big picture regarding him.Now where he starts the season is debatable.I actually can see him pitch earlier in the season in the majors, if he is hot, rather than in September when he might be out of gas.

 

About the last sentence: Romero has the highest potential and best stuff of all the Twins starting pitchers that are ready or near ready, and his stuff, unlike Gonsalves's top of the zone stuff, has a high probability to play in the majors.I have not seen Littell pitch in person.Romero is close to, if maybe a step behind of, Berrios as far as ceiling goes.But the endurance (and the changeup, for Berrios also btw) is an issue.

Right, I forgot that Romero barely touched 125 IP last season. Good point.


#30 Oxtung

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 11:42 AM

 

I would agree up to a point, but for a different reason:

 

The biggest issue that Romero has right now is endurance.The max innings he ever pitched in a season are 125, last season.And from those, the last 20 or so in August were ugly, because he ran out of steam.So he has been an 100 inning guy in the minors so far, which means that there is no way that he can be a 200 inning guy in the majors in 2018. 

 

I agree that he struggled late last year probably due to running out of gas. However, the days of 200IP being a benchmark are gone. Only 15 pitchers last year threw >200IP. Hell, only 60 pitchers threw >160IP.

 

Romero might struggle late in the season but if he can get to 150IP that is the same as most pitchers in baseball these days.


#31 jimmer

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 11:46 AM

You know who has been pretty consistently throwing 200 or more innings a season (if only barely).

Chris Archer. Who apparently is below average, according to some ;-)
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#32 Tibs

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 12:24 PM

Holy cow that rotation would be horrendous
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#33 spycake

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 12:27 PM

I just don't see Hughes in the rotation to start the season...bullpen maybe. There are only 2 games in April where we need a 5th starter,


Not sure if that is really true. Their only April off days are the first week and around the Puerto Rico trip. They don't have one in May until May 9th either. That's 9 straight days, then 19 straight days.

And even if you skip the 5th starter once or twice, you're not doing it to get more starts for a vet like Ervin Santana like we did last year. You are increasing the workload on guys like Berrios, Mejia, Duffey, etc.

I'd count on needing 5 starters the whole time.
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#34 mikelink45

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 12:32 PM

 

They have? Gonsalves has 22 IP at AAA, and he gave up 14 runs. Romero has yet to throw a pitch in AAA, and had a 3.53 ERA in AA where the league ERA was 3.60.

If our TD writers are accurate, if their reports have considered all the trials and errors in their progress then I am ready to give them a chance.


#35 spycake

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 01:01 PM

If our TD writers are accurate, if their reports have considered all the trials and errors in their progress then I am ready to give them a chance.


I think the TD writers like them in context as prospects, but I'm not sure they've advocated for their immediate promotion to the majors. Perhaps they argued for a faster promotion to AAA last year, particularly for Gonsalves, but in absence of that I don't think they'd recommend essentially skipping AAA altogether based on spring training performance.
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#36 Dantes929

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 01:54 PM

 

You know who has been pretty consistently throwing 200 or more innings a season (if only barely).

Chris Archer. Who apparently is below average, according to some ;-)

I've seen people say he is not worth our starting right fielder plus 3 of our top prospects but have not seen anyone say below average.I might have missed it.

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#37 Blackjack

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 01:59 PM

I hope Berrios handles the pressure (and more added pressure of being the opening day starter) and comes out throwing like the ace we all think and hope he's going to be. I'm concerned that hes going to get amped up and be horrible the first few starts.

 

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#38 Teddy

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 02:18 PM

 

I've seen people say he is not worth our starting right fielder plus 3 of our top prospects but have not seen anyone say below average.I might have missed it.

 

I wouldn't pay that price unless it was someone like Clayton Kershaw with a Cy Young under his belt. Archer has been too inconsistent to justify that price.


#39 Oxtung

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 03:02 PM

 

I wouldn't pay that price unless it was someone like Clayton Kershaw with a Cy Young under his belt. Archer has been too inconsistent to justify that price.

Kershaw would cost considerably more. This is the piece that people seem to forget. If you only are willing to trade for (or sign) one of the top 5 pitchers in all of baseball their price is going to be considerably higher! A trade package for Kershaw starts with Buxton and includes several other high end pieces.

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#40 Dantes929

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 03:04 PM

 

I hope Berrios handles the pressure (and more added pressure of being the opening day starter) and comes out throwing like the ace we all think and hope he's going to be. I'm concerned that hes going to get amped up and be horrible the first few starts.

Sometimes I think it would be smart to just flip the rotation.I think the perception out there right now is that we will at a large disadvantage at every spot in the rotation. I think the reality is that we will be at a slight to moderate disadvantage at every spot in the rotation, at least until Santana gets back. If you flip the rotation you are at a disadvantage in the 1st two spots, slight disadvantage in the 3rd spot and a slight to moderate advantage in the 4th and 5th spots. Just seems like the numbers would come out a little better that way. If we get a guy like Cobb then we would have the advantage in maybe 3 spots.Of course this all depends on the opponent. Maybe not so smart this year but I still think the idea of having Berrios start in the 3rd or 4 games instead of the 1st is reasonable.

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