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Article: Trade Target: Collin McHugh (McWho?)

collin mchugh chris archer yu darvish alex cobb ervin santana
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#41 Twodogs

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 02:13 PM

I'd rather have a team that's capable of winning it all but could miss the post season than a team that will make the post season but isn't capable of winning it all.

There's no rule that the Twins have to go into the playoffs as the plucky, try-hard underdogs. That chip-chair-and-a-chance bit is so damn old and those long odds have yet to pay out for the Twins. This organization has to stop this business of hoping for the best. They need to PLAN for the best. Don't rely on luck and good fortune, make it yourself by stacking the odds in your favor.


I say you stack the odds in your favor by keeping the chips you have until the final hand at least. When I play poker I don't go all in on my first hand or two. Trade those chips to put yourself over the top when you realize your gonna actually get there. Not before.

Also if you build to win it all or maybe not even make the playoffs, you do realize that if the Twins don't make the playoffs that they will probably tear this whole thing apart and start over again. Come August, when the twins are 10 - 11 games under they start trading away all their good guys to teams that need them and get a bunch of new young guys that none of us have any idea how good they will be.

Be careful for what you wish for.
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#42 Twodogs

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 02:30 PM

My point is this. I'm not against trading prospects, even great ones, but they can make that trade in August. Until then they need a Lynn, Cobb, etc... To get them through the season. There will be a lot of teams that will be out of it and they will have some really good starting pitchers that will become available. They will be trying to get rid of them, just like the Tigers did with Verlander this year. Now if they get Cobb now, get Santana back in May, have Berrios develop a little more, have Gibson not do terrible and then add that so called Ace in August. Then the Twins will end up with two better pitchers to put in the rotation. Now you have your so called world series contender. But if you trade a bunch for a guy like Archer now, they will be done and won't be able to add that extra guy in August because you can't sign free agents in August. Sign that free agent now, Cobb, Lynn, etc... And get the Ace at the trade deadline.
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#43 Han Joelo

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 02:40 PM

 

Not sure why you say that, the Twins have if I figured it out correctly, only 3 guys making more than the average for their potion (Dozier, Reed and Mauer) and all three are barely over that.

Seems like the perfect time to spend, because at some point Buxton, Rosario, Sano and maybe others will cost a fortune and the story will be are payroll is too high for FA's. IMO

 

 

No sense bellying up to the hog trough of top free agency until spots 2-5 are bit more solid.  All three teams I cited are different, actually.  The Cubs bellied up for Lester before they were maybe ready to contend for the WS.  The Indians never did, although they DID kind of go all-in with the Miller acquisition.  But the Astros built everything up and then acquired their Ace as the last part of the equation.

 

Keep in mind, I don't have a 20 game season ticket package anted up in this game.  I don't really care if the owners pocket the money; I'm sure in some fashion they will reinvest it and eventually it will trickle down to me...


#44 KirbyDome89

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 02:52 PM

 

You do not need a mythical ace. Give me a 5 man balanced rotation with additional depth anytime. Don't even pretend you can predict what will happen in a short series.

But we're ok with pretending that talent won't win out? 


#45 spycake

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 03:42 PM

There will be a lot of teams that will be out of it and they will have some really good starting pitchers that will become available. They will be trying to get rid of them, just like the Tigers did with Verlander this year.


Name some SP that you expect to be available at the trade deadline in 2018. Not all trade deadlines are created equal -- remember 2016 when Hector Santiago was one of the leading arms available?

And even in 2017 when there were 4 notable SP available, I think you are dramatically underrating the difficulty of acquiring them. Look where they wound up: Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs, Astros. Doesn't look much different from FA negotiations, does it?
Verlander's no-trade clause played a big role too, limiting his potential landing spots as much as any choosy FA.
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#46 yarnivek1972

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 04:16 PM

You need an ace who can throw that three hit shutout in game 1. Then you need a solid #2 that can hold serve. A good #3 helps, but the days of winning a series with a #3 pitcher like Les Straker are long gone


IDK, if you get 6 shutout innings on the road from your # 3, I’d say your chances of winning that game are pretty good.

#47 ashburyjohn

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 05:38 PM

I am not in favor of trading for Archer and trading with Tampa again like they did with Delmond Young I still can remember that trade. I truly believe that trade cost Minnesota chance to go to the world series.

“We should be careful to get out of an experience only the wisdom that is in it, and stop there, lest we be like the cat that sits down on a hot stove lid. She will never sit down on a hot stove lid again and that is well, but also she will never sit down on a cold one anymore.” ― Mark Twain

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#48 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 05:47 PM

 

The only issue with that train of thought is that Lynn (& Cobb/Arietta) will cost a high draft pick, which is pretty much the same as losing a prospect...

 

This is a fair point... the guy is still pretty meh to me at last. I suppose I would trade a guy like Jorge or Slegers for him, but I'm not sure I'd send anyone over with upside. Houston might have to deal someone like this, so you could potentially get him cheap. But this certainly isn't my first target right now. I'd rather get Lynn or Archer.


#49 darin617

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 05:53 PM

Charlie Morton might be a better target. Thin he may only be signed for 1 more year.


#50 jaimedude2

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 06:23 PM

What about signing Andrew Cashner, he pitched in that home run friendly ballpark in Arlington. That and he is only 32 years old like Darvish, I know the ERA and the WAR do not jump out at you, but with the Twins defense and less home run friendly park, I would have to think Cashner would be a reasonable free agent target.


#51 ewen21

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 06:23 PM

 

But we're ok with pretending that talent won't win out? 

"An ace" pitches every five days.There are only about five or six true aces in the league and Darvish sure as heck isn't one of them.Neither is Archer and I don't think Arrietta is now.

 

He said a "balanced rotation"

I would rather have that than an ace and a couple of question marks at the bottom of the rotation.I believe that is what he meant.  

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#52 jimmer

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 06:25 PM

Over the last four seasons, and while pitching against usually extremely tough offenses in the AL East, Archer ranks 5th for starters in the AL in fWAR.

 

Over the last THREE seasons, he ranks 3RD in the AL in fWAR. 3RD.

 

He has blemishes but you have to look hard.I guess the term Ace is reserved for like 3 pitchers.

Edited by jimmer, 12 February 2018 - 06:30 PM.

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#53 KirbyDome89

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 07:16 PM

 

"An ace" pitches every five days.There are only about five or six true aces in the league and Darvish sure as heck isn't one of them.Neither is Archer and I don't think Arrietta is now.

 

He said a "balanced rotation"

I would rather have that than an ace and a couple of question marks at the bottom of the rotation.I believe that is what he meant.  

Having an elite pitcher doesn't preclude the Twins from filling out the rest of the rotation with back end guys (I'm not sure how else to interpret "balanced.") Those type of pitchers can't match up with what Boston, NY, Houston, Cleveland, LA, or even Seattle is going to run out in first few games of a series. The Twins horrific postseason record the last decade + would suggest it's going to take more than 3-5 range starters to go anywhere in October. 

 

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#54 DocBauer

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 08:17 PM

Didn't KC make 2 WS recently with a strong pen, good defense and solid offense? The Twins probably can't match their pen, but its better with more help on the way. They probably have a better offense. Need to deepen the rotation, even without a clear #1, IMO.

McHugh is OK, but I think I'd rather sign a still solid, quality FA, lose the 3rd rounder, and keep the roster and system intact. For now anyway, and look at a future trade.

The idea of Archer is a completely different animal. But what I will say is I'd rather keep Kepler and trade 4-5 prospects of quality...yes, maybe even Lewis...and not touch the ML roster. Much as I like Lewis, SS is pretty deep, as is the system as a whole, and if prefer that route if possible.
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#55 mikelink45

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 08:43 PM

Yawn- Seth, I need you to convince me that I should disregard the things you have written about our prospects.I need to know that a 31 year old pitcher is actually better than what we have in our prospects and if you do my expectations of our young talent will take a big hit.


#56 Twodogs

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 10:00 PM

Name some SP that you expect to be available at the trade deadline in 2018. Not all trade deadlines are created equal -- remember 2016 when Hector Santiago was one of the leading arms available?

And even in 2017 when there were 4 notable SP available, I think you are dramatically underrating the difficulty of acquiring them. Look where they wound up: Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs, Astros. Doesn't look much different from FA negotiations, does it?
Verlander's no-trade clause played a big role too, limiting his potential landing spots as much as any choosy FA.


I'd say that if I had to put money on it, I'd say to watch a team like San Francisco, they are so old that if they aren't kicking everyone's butt's going into July they might just fall apart, they will have injuries and other things happen to them, I believe they have probably what would be projected as the oldest starting lineup in baseball. Now imagine if they start to slip in June or July, that team will have to close up shop and start the fire sale because they will realize they aren't going to bounce back next year so they will be getting rid of guys like Samardzija, and Cueto along with the geriatric position players they have all over the place. But that is just one team that i forsee might need to get rid of someone. Tampa Bay also, if they are getting pounded in the East they might start to look to get rid of guys like Archer and Odorizzi a little more seriously at that point in time; right now they are in a position where they don't need to move them, so their values are preceivably higher right now, those values might drop a little going into August if they are out of the running. Other teams that have some decent guys that could have to move guys to get younger and more competitive would be Seattle, Toronto, heck Arizona could have a bad year and need to unload some things? If the Mets can't get it put back together they may need to unload some things. Teams like the White Sox, Royals, Oakland, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Miami already seem to be in full rebuild so they won't have much, those teams seem to have gone young already. But now could you imagine if a team like the Red Sox faltered this year?? If for some reason they took a dump, they'd have some nice pieces up for bid???

Those are just some ideas, yeah I think I'd sigh Cobb or Lynn and wait to make that trade when I know if I'm actually in it or not?? Thats just my thoughts. But if the Twins do it that way they will know a little more about their prospects too, and they will know if a guy like Gonsalves will actually make it or not.

Also for giving up a 3rd rounder for Cobb or Lynn, the Twins don't know who they would draft with that pick anyway, they might be able to get the guy they wanted with the 4ty pick?? Also that pick is a complete unknown right now whereas the trade chips they got right now they know who they are and what to expect??

Again just my opinion.

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#57 Jham

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 11:52 PM

 

My point is this. I'm not against trading prospects, even great ones, but they can make that trade in August. Until then they need a Lynn, Cobb, etc... To get them through the season. There will be a lot of teams that will be out of it and they will have some really good starting pitchers that will become available. They will be trying to get rid of them, just like the Tigers did with Verlander this year. Now if they get Cobb now, get Santana back in May, have Berrios develop a little more, have Gibson not do terrible and then add that so called Ace in August. Then the Twins will end up with two better pitchers to put in the rotation. Now you have your so called world series contender. But if you trade a bunch for a guy like Archer now, they will be done and won't be able to add that extra guy in August because you can't sign free agents in August. Sign that free agent now, Cobb, Lynn, etc... And get the Ace at the trade deadline.

 

Why trade against leverage (trade deadline) in order to receive a half season or less of a player when you could have traded for them preseason and had them all year?That said, I can't imagine the Rays trading Archer.The guy is a stud and young and under contract.Unless he demanded a trade and said he would absolutely not re-sign with Tampa, they should keep him and continue to build around him.  

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#58 ewen21

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 11:57 PM

 

Having an elite pitcher doesn't preclude the Twins from filling out the rest of the rotation with back end guys (I'm not sure how else to interpret "balanced.") Those type of pitchers can't match up with what Boston, NY, Houston, Cleveland, LA, or even Seattle is going to run out in first few games of a series. The Twins horrific postseason record the last decade + would suggest it's going to take more than 3-5 range starters to go anywhere in October. 

I get it, but we have not hit in the postseason

2010 7 runs in 3 games

2009 7 runs in 3 games

2006 7 runs in 3 games

 

Those are the facts, ugly as they are.Ace or not, we ain't winning if we don't do some hitting in these pressure games and the fact is we have not.Scoring just over 2 runs a game isn't winning you anything.

 

YES, it would be nice to have an "elite pitcher" but can we for once raise some decent starting pitching?Other organizations do it and those tend to be the teams that go places.

 

 


#59 ewen21

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 12:04 AM

 

Over the last four seasons, and while pitching against usually extremely tough offenses in the AL East, Archer ranks 5th for starters in the AL in fWAR.

 

Over the last THREE seasons, he ranks 3RD in the AL in fWAR. 3RD.

 

He has blemishes but you have to look hard.I guess the term Ace is reserved for like 3 pitchers.

The term "ace" in baseball doesn't have a definition, but I define an ace as a guy who can take the ball and give you seven or eight solid innings a whole bunch of times.An ace tends to take you to the set up guy then the closer quite often, so a true ace, in my opinion, is rare.

 

Some guys have good stuff, but labor a lot.That isn't an ace to me.

 


#60 KirbyDome89

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 01:27 AM

 

I get it, but we have not hit in the postseason

2010 7 runs in 3 games

2009 7 runs in 3 games

2006 7 runs in 3 games

 

Those are the facts, ugly as they are.Ace or not, we ain't winning if we don't do some hitting in these pressure games and the fact is we have not.Scoring just over 2 runs a game isn't winning you anything.

 

YES, it would be nice to have an "elite pitcher" but can we for once raise some decent starting pitching?Other organizations do it and those tend to be the teams that go places.

2010 they gave up nearly 6 runs a game

2009 they gave up nearly 5 runs a game

2006 they gave up 13 runs in the two games Johan didn't pitch

 

Not many offenses can compensate for that kind of pitching. I'm not saying the lack of playoff success is entirely the fault of the pitching staff, but against elite level pitching offenses are going to have 2 or 3 run games. 

 

I would love it if MN had some young arms with elite potential. It's certainly more cost efficient and less risky than spending in FA, but the reality is the Twins have failed in that area for a while now, so their options are limited at the moment. Yes, teams that can grow elite pitching leave themselves with financial resources to commit elsewhere but in that group of teams mentioned earlier many have made big signings or trades. 




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