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Article: Twins Daily 2018 Top Prospects: #8 Blayne Enlow

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#21 Tomj14

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 12:29 PM

 

Yep, and I'll take a coin flip every day of the week for any IFA selection, any 3rd-rounder, and for sure, any later round pick like Badoo, Garver, Hildenberger Rogers, et al. 

No one can argue that. IMO I would turn a few of those coin flips into players that can help us now, before those coin flips come up tails.


#22 markos

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 12:44 PM

 

By the time a prospect is recognized as having the type of potential that Graterol, Badoo, and Enlow have, the chances of them being eventual contributors increases dramatically, maybe to as much as 40-50%. I don't know about you, but I think I'd label them as better than crap shots. Their odds are now probably better than those of players selected in the second half of the first round.

I think you are greatly overstating the odds of those three producing in the big leagues. There have been numerous studies (example: http://www.thepointo...pdated-edition/) that have shown that even prospects ranked as high as 25-50 nationally have only slightly better than 50-50 odds of above replacement level careers. I like Badoo a ton, but I still think he probably only has a 25% chance at being a big league contributor. Graterol and Enlow are both intriguing, but as super young pitchers their odds are still extremely daunting.

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#23 ashburyjohn

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 01:34 PM

I think y'all should watch Enlow in action before you make up your mind.

He's going to cost a lot of minor league batters their jobs. "Can't hit the good curve."

 

Whether that translates into a job in the majors where batters can hit (or lay off of) the good curve, is of course what will decide things for him.

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#24 jimbo92107

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 01:35 PM

 

I think y'all should watch Enlow in action before you make up your mind.

 

Wow, that is such a simple, clean kinetic chain on Enlow's delivery. See how he brings his throwing hand in tight to the right side of his neck? That's where the energy-efficient final stage comes from. Similar to how Andy Roddick hits a tennis ball 140 mph. It's also where Enlow's tight spin comes from; the same energy can be channeled through the ball or around it. 

 

He's got a good pro curve right now, and his heater explodes out of his hand. With that delivery, his changeup might be difficult. He's got so much velocity in his hand. 

 

Also I like the down plane of his delivery. Bert will like that, I bet.

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#25 Dantes929

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 01:43 PM

While its true not all high prospects become above average players it is also true that
ALL above average players were once prospects.If 3 or 4 in your top 20 and one outside of your top 20 end up good and the list cycles every 4 -6 years and each of those players has a 7-10 year career I guess it comes out ok since I am guessing most teams go through quite a few replacement level players to fill out rosters.I'm just pulling numbers from a cloud here but you get the idea.  

As far as Enlow goes, I knew very little about him before now but his delivery looks pretty good and I love stuff that doesn't just involve velocity. I also hope he gets on the fast track through the system. I know HOFers don't come through every day but I often ponder how long it would take Blyleven to get to the majors nowadays.especially considering pitch counts and innings limits. 

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#26 birdwatcher

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 01:44 PM

 

I think you are greatly overstating the odds of those three producing in the big leagues. There have been numerous studies (example: http://www.thepointo...pdated-edition/) that have shown that even prospects ranked as high as 25-50 nationally have only slightly better than 50-50 odds of above replacement level careers. I like Badoo a ton, but I still think he probably only has a 25% chance at being a big league contributor. Graterol and Enlow are both intriguing, but as super young pitchers their odds are still extremely daunting.

 

With due respect and appreciation for your knowledge, I think you are greatly overstating the legitimacy of an old study that looks at data from 1994 to 2006. There have been so many transformative improvements in virtually every aspect of the process and at every stage of the process since then. Technology that takes much of the judgment away from the trained eyes of scouts who see prospects a handful of times who are now supported by myriads of eyes studying video. Fitness and health upgrades, perhaps most dramatically affecting IFA prospects, knowledge about biomechanics, kinesiology, psychology, better coaching tools and knowledge. I don't have numbers to support it, but my intuition tells me that players who make the top 120 or so today probably enjoy odds that have improved enough so that the odds for Graterol, Badoo, and Enslow are closer to 50% than 25%, that even despite the much worse odds for pitching prospects because of the much higher injury risks.


#27 Han Joelo

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 01:54 PM

To that Eastwood movie wasn't any good?

 

Enlow looks legit.  Solid move; much more difficult to pull off than throwing cash a 32 year olds.


#28 birdwatcher

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 02:04 PM

 

I think you are greatly overstating the odds of those three producing in the big leagues. There have been numerous studies (example: http://www.thepointo...pdated-edition/) that have shown that even prospects ranked as high as 25-50 nationally have only slightly better than 50-50 odds of above replacement level careers. I like Badoo a ton, but I still think he probably only has a 25% chance at being a big league contributor. Graterol and Enlow are both intriguing, but as super young pitchers their odds are still extremely daunting.

 

I'd guess, markos, that someone has produced data forlater time periods that would educate me better, but I just glanced at the 2011 draft, a notoriously week class, and BA's 2011 Top 100. From a cursory look, I think about two-thirds of the tp 60 players selected in that draf have made it onto a big league roster. I'd say somewhere round 50-60% of the Top 100 also have logged some MLB innings.


#29 laloesch

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 02:12 PM

I'm impressed but he almost reminds me of Duffey.Guy has a fantastic curve but that's about it.


#30 Parker Hageman

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 02:17 PM

Whether that translates into a job in the majors where batters can hit (or lay off of) the good curve, is of course what will decide things for him.

 

 

Major league hitters do not hit or lay off of good curves. They hit or lay off mediocre ones.

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#31 Nick Nelson

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 02:39 PM

 

To that Eastwood movie wasn't any good?

Your mileage may vary. Aging baseball scout spots flaw in a young player that goes undetected by hotshot young stat-head. He's proven right in a laughably predictable and contrived climactic scene. Every character is a complete stereotype. Yada yada.


#32 Parker Hageman

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 02:40 PM

I'm impressed but he almost reminds me of Duffey.Guy has a fantastic curve but that's about it.

 

 

Prefacing this by saying super loud that THERE'S NO SUCH THING AS A PITCHING PROSPECT. Especially at 18 years old. Enlow has two plus pitches but ultimately needs a third and some seasoning before you can say he's got it. 

 

It might seem easy to take a right-handed curveball specialist and say he's a Tyler Duffey type but that's doing a disservice to where Enlow's curveball is at right now. In his senior year, his curveball's spin rate was the highest in the draft class, measuring over 2700 RPMs on average. That puts him in some elite territory immediately. MLB's average curveball spin is 2490 in 2017. By comparison, Tyler Duffey's curveball spins at a 2475 rate. It's not as sharp, it's not a late-breaking. It's a good pitch, to be sure, but we're talking two different types of curveballs. 

 

Again -- TNSTAAPP -- but we're talking an 18-year-old with two plus tools. 

 

 

 

 

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#33 FormerMinnasotan

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 02:43 PM

I'm impressed but he almost reminds me of Duffey. Guy has a fantastic curve but that's about it.

From what the scouting report says Enlow’s velocity came back between 90-94 while he pitched for the GCL Twins so that’s better than Duffey’s upper 80’s fastball, plus Enlow is younger...I have more confidence now that Enlow can develop a change rather than Duffey IMO.
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#34 laloesch

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 02:56 PM

 

Prefacing this by saying super loud that THERE'S NO SUCH THING AS A PITCHING PROSPECT. Especially at 18 years old. Enlow has two plus pitches but ultimately needs a third and some seasoning before you can say he's got it. 

 

It might seem easy to take a right-handed curveball specialist and say he's a Tyler Duffey type but that's doing a disservice to where Enlow's curveball is at right now. In his senior year, his curveball's spin rate was the highest in the draft class, measuring over 2700 RPMs on average. That puts him in some elite territory immediately. MLB's average curveball spin is 2490 in 2017. By comparison, Tyler Duffey's curveball spins at a 2475 rate. It's not as sharp, it's not a late-breaking. It's a good pitch, to be sure, but we're talking two different types of curveballs. 

 

Again -- TNSTAAPP -- but we're talking an 18-year-old with two plus tools. 

 

I'm impressed at what he can do at 18 no doubt.My only concern is that once he reaches the upper minors and majors he will essentially be a one trick pony like Duffey.Bert dominated for many years because he could vary the spin on his curve keeping it in strike territory or drop out of the zone keeping hitters off balance.

It's kinda like adjusting the spin on your bowling ball to control the amount of hook depending on oil lane conditions.Not every pitcher has that finesse control of their out pitch. Duffey is a perfect example and that's why he's failed as a starter IMO (besides his average fastball).Hopefully Enlow can develop a third pitch changeup.

Edited by laloesch, 12 February 2018 - 03:01 PM.


#35 Deduno Abides

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 05:01 PM

If he’s good like Frankie V. he should be known as Blayne “Sweet” Enlow.
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#36 ashburyjohn

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 05:58 PM

If he’s good like Frankie V. he should be known as Blayne “Sweet” Enlow.

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#37 Carole Keller

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 06:52 PM

 

Our individual rankings:

 

Seth (9), Nick (7), Cody (12), Tom (12). 

You should work those into the original articles ... I find it interesting how much you all agree/disagree and I think is interesting information to include.

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#38 Dantes929

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 06:52 PM

 

I'm impressed at what he can do at 18 no doubt.My only concern is that once he reaches the upper minors and majors he will essentially be a one trick pony like Duffey.Bert dominated for many years because he could vary the spin on his curve keeping it in strike territory or drop out of the zone keeping hitters off balance.

It's kinda like adjusting the spin on your bowling ball to control the amount of hook depending on oil lane conditions.Not every pitcher has that finesse control of their out pitch. Duffey is a perfect example and that's why he's failed as a starter IMO (besides his average fastball).Hopefully Enlow can develop a third pitch changeup.

So you are saying you can be a one trick pony like Bert if you do it well?Might not be what you meant but I agree with it anyway. Duffey did quite well as a starter when he had good command of both his fastball and curveball in 2015. He mixed big breaking sweepers with sharp biting 12-6 pitches. He had command of neither in 2016 quite possibly because of trying to develop a third pitch which I don't think he needed. There are a lot of variations in arm angle, speed and break with curve balls that essentially give you enough different looks from that same pitch.Heck, a slow curve ball IS a change up. Then even a mediocre fast ball placed well can be very effective.Duffey lost the well placed part, a little downward plane and a little bite from what he had in 2015..It looks to me that Enlow has enough stuff right now to do well. If he can get the pin point control down I think his future is very bright.

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#39 sftwinsfan

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 08:07 PM

Definitely one of the more interesting prospects in the system, however, I don't believe there was a master plan to land him specifically.They could have taken him at #35 or #37 and signed him for right around slot.Any other team could have taken him in that range as well.To not take him at #37 and rather take Leach tells me while high on him, they couldn't have had him that high otherwise they don't risk losing him.I'm hoping they push him to Cedar Rapids for at least a good chunk of the season.  

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#40 Jham

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 08:30 PM

Definitely one of the more interesting prospects in the system, however, I don't believe there was a master plan to land him specifically. They could have taken him at #35 or #37 and signed him for right around slot. Any other team could have taken him in that range as well. To not take him at #37 and rather take Leach tells me while high on him, they couldn't have had him that high otherwise they don't risk losing him. I'm hoping they push him to Cedar Rapids for at least a good chunk of the season.

I dunno. From what I heard other teams knew not to pick him or he'd have gone to LSU. Twins were basically the only team that could offer him enough money by undersigning on Lewis.

I love Enlow. I'd have him as my number 1 pitching prospect in the org. I think he needs to be fast tracked before that spin rate causes his arm to detach at the Enlow.. I mean elbow.

Edited by Jham, 12 February 2018 - 08:35 PM.

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