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Article: Don't Panic Over Bad Breaks For Twins Rotation

ervin santana
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#41 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 05:41 PM

The Twins missed out on Darvish: maybe 18 wins at $22M. What if they sign both Cobb and Lynn: maybe 28 wins at $26M???


I'm not sure that's a great way to evaluate their impact. They aren't replacing guys who would have won 0 games.
It's better to try to analyze how much each player gains you over who they would have replaced.
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#42 jimmer

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 05:42 PM

 

I'm not sure that's a great way to evaluate their impact. They aren't replacing guys who would have won 0 games.
It's better to try to analyze how much each player gains you over who they would have replaced.

Not to mention there is no way they sign both.


#43 ashburyjohn

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 05:53 PM

Not one person would be opposed to $2/42. But if it’s that because he DID TOO WELL.. now it’s a bad deal?

It is not only a GOOD deal, it's probably the DESIRABLE outcome. I don't discount the value of buying yourself a chance at that.

 

But it is only one (or a conglomeration of several) among the many possibilities, and it represents a multi-stage optimization under uncertainty. I'm repeating myself now, so I'll bow out of this tangent.

Why waste time learning, when ignorance is instantaneous?


#44 ND-Fan

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 05:54 PM

Santanna's injury is not good but its at right end of the season and when the Twins need 5 pitchers the least with only couple of dates for the 5 pitcher. Second I think if I remember right Santanna hasn't pitched in colder weather of beginning of the season. This also will let them give some younger pitchers a chance to perform to see what they have if they need to go into minor leagues.

The missing out on Darvish looks like a miss but I truly believe going past 5 years on 31 year old pitcher is just huge mistake. We already can see what happens to pitcher in very short period of time look at Phil Hughes basically same age as Darvish resigned at 29 years of age for 4 more years see what happened. If you had pitcher with Phil Hughes numbers available at age 29 to be locked up people would be hollering at management to get him signed up for the future. Now look at the reaction and public signing of Phil Hughes now. I think it would be better if teams would pay just higher amounts on short term deals when they are in their windowof opportunity. Like paying him close to 30 million plus incentives with creative options both ways for the player and team. Say you have 3 year contract at 30 million with extra incentives to push it to 100 million or little more with opt out after 2 years for the player and option after 3 year for the team to keep the player. Also you add real incentives for getting to world series and then again for winning the world series. Because basically if you look at most of top line pitchers recently in the world Series it has been on rental basis for their services. If you feel your in your window pay high price in that window and doesn't tie up payroll commitments for ever and block path for young pitchers coming up through the system.

The Twins should maybe look at now signing couple of pitchers in level of 3 to number 4 pitchers with idea they hope to hit on one them and other may have to be let go or see if they can clear waivers to minors if they don't pan out. The way the market is shaping up now they could sign them for less money than Darvish would have cost on per year basis and likely could sign them to one year deal with option. I think this what LA has been doing lately just piling up pitching talent. If pitchers are not performing they just rotate until they find who is performing.

But getting back to this management group its still not a lot different than previous management group because they are still working under same business model by ownership and business side of the Twins. They have spent a lot more money on analytics which has had some improvement on who's playing and where they are playing and how they are drafting talent. Terry Ryan wanted to expand scouting department and basically this new management group has done this but with analytical people where Terry wanted more people in the field. We will see if this way of scouting improves quality of players being acquired but this won't be know for at least another 5 years. The adding of Free agents under the Twins ownership philosophy will never will be where the Twins are leaders in signing FA in MLB. They will always will be well run business where they are returning a profit and will be enjoyable place to come watch baseball and every so often they may have chance to win championship if cards fall their way. They will be a team on average just a bit over mid point of major league clubs in long run.


#45 tarheeltwinsfan

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 06:07 PM

Can we please attempt to trade for Realmuto!Then we would be solid up the middle. 

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#46 spycake

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 06:10 PM

Santanna's injury is not good but its at right end of the season and when the Twins need 5 pitchers the least with only couple of dates for the 5 pitcher.


Twins play 9 straight days after their first series, then go to Puerto Rico, then 19 straight days into May. Not much opportunity to skip the 5th spot.
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#47 USAFChief

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 06:14 PM

Twins play 9 straight days after their first series, then go to Puerto Rico, then 19 straight days into May. Not much opportunity to skip the 5th spot.


Skipping the 5th starter is pretty much a thing of the past anyway.
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I am not the paranoid you're looking for.


#48 jud6312

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 06:32 PM

 

The Twins being willing to take on the last year of Span's contract would give them a leg up on other trading partners interested in either Archer or Odorizzi and also lower the cost to the Twins to acquire either one in terms of players.

If taking on Span's contract is the piece that gets it done to get Archer, fine.

 

If it's a requirement (along with trading Kepler) to land Odorizzi, no chance.

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#49 Deduno Abides

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 07:32 PM

The biggest silver linings are that the returning team should be better than last year, the bullpen should be much better and the rotation is no worse than it was a week ago. The biggest weakness is potentially having too much hope resting on a 35 year-old starter who just stayed really healthy and outperformed his peripherals. The law of averages suggests that one or both of those factors weren’t going to be as good this year.

I truly know little about the flock of AA and AAA starters from last year, other than their stats and ratings, which are relatively optimistic. Assumedly, management has seen a lot more of them than I have and has a more fully-formed assessment. Also, the music is about to stop in free agency musical chairs, and a decent starter may be left without a seat. The Twins also have some trade chips, more than they have in the past (Zach Granite to the A’s for Jharel Cotton?). Something good could come from one of these buckets.

The Astros didn’t acquire an expensive starter until the end of August last year. (BTW, Darvish is good, but he’s not as good as Verlander or Kuechel.) Let’s see how things play out.
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#50 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 07:39 PM

I guess my issue here is the idea that Darvish is drastically more likely to "really good pitcher" than anyone else the Twins still have access to. Why are we being so presumptive about what they're doing with their "saved" money? And why are we all treating Darvish like he's a bona fide ace?
 
 

Thanks, and good question. I realize I've swung quite a bit since writing the piece you mentioned.
 
While I was clearly optimistic a month ago, through talking to some people around the team as January progressed, it became fairly clear to me that Darvish wasn't gonna happen. So I'm past the denial and anger stages. And now, seeing the deal he ended up with, it's easier to find acceptance. I get why people disagree, but to me that's an unattractive contract for a team in Minnesota's position.
 
Seems to me they made a solid effort to get him and came up short against a legendary big-market franchise. Doesn't necessarily reflect poorly on the Twins nor doom them.

No, but nice try :)

In December you wrote the Twins must get creative to lure Darvish. How so? By being open minded to an opt out provision, and even sillier, suggesting that the Twins should consider signing Chris Gimenez too. (The very things the Cubs did.) You concluded the article by projecting Darvish to sign at 5 years, 135 million.

So it really stretches the imagination that Twins Daily, or you, or whoever, is "fine" with Darvish signing elsewhere for 6 years and 126 million. That's right, more years, less money. Not a peep of protest or regret from anyone in there??
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#51 Dantes929

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 07:46 PM

"But here's the thing: Minnesota absolutely should NOT have been counting on the same impact in 2018. For a variety of reasons, Santana was all but certain to see regression this year. I've been banging that drum all offseason, and the recently released PECOTA projections from Baseball Prospectus express similar reservations, forecasting Erv for a 4.76 ERA and 1.41 WHIP.

Even before this injury news came out, expecting the same Ervin Santana from 2017 to return in 2018 was folly. If the Twins held any such expectations (and their lack of urgency to add rotation help would seemingly suggest it), those are now out the door."

So he was really lucky last year?His ERA, WHIP and SO/BB were almost identical in 2016.Was that lucky? He keeps himself in really good shape, has great control and apparently is using his slider, which is one of the best in baseball more effectively. You and PECOTA might be right. I put it at about the same odds as you and PECOTA being wrong.

Don't Sweat the Small Stuff ... and it's all small stuff.

#52 jimmer

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 07:49 PM

 

"But here's the thing: Minnesota absolutely should NOT have been counting on the same impact in 2018. For a variety of reasons, Santana was all but certain to see regression this year. I've been banging that drum all offseason, and the recently released PECOTA projections from Baseball Prospectus express similar reservations, forecasting Erv for a 4.76 ERA and 1.41 WHIP.

Even before this injury news came out, expecting the same Ervin Santana from 2017 to return in 2018 was folly. If the Twins held any such expectations (and their lack of urgency to add rotation help would seemingly suggest it), those are now out the door."

So he was really lucky last year?His ERA, WHIP and SO/BB were almost identical in 2016.Was that lucky? He keeps himself in really good shape, has great control and apparently is using his slider, which is one of the best in baseball more effectively. You and PECOTA might be right. I put it at about the same odds as you and PECOTA being wrong.

His FIP was up a half run as was his xFIP. His Ks were slightly down and his BABIP was very low while his LOB% was very high.Yeah, lucky, but part of that luck was due to the quality D behind him.

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#53 tarheeltwinsfan

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 07:51 PM

 

Twins play 9 straight days after their first series, then go to Puerto Rico, then 19 straight days into May. Not much opportunity to skip the 5th spot.

Where is Chris Giminez when we need him?


#54 rdehring

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 07:59 PM

Thanks for a great article, Nick.

 

Hopefully, you can have a beer and go to bed to rest your head.It has to be a bit sore right now from all the pounding you have taken.  

 

No one will know, but there is a good chance the Twins were always the pawn Darvish's agent was using to drive up other offers.Had no one moved, he may have come here but along with Milwaukee...was probably his last choices.

 

And the Twins have something they didn't have a year ago.They have Trevor May coming back in May.So with Santana, they could/should have two quality starters added to the rotation six to eight weeks into the season.   

 

There are also several ok prospects who got a bit of experience last year...Jorge, Slegers and Enns.Who knows, maybe one of that trio will shock the hell out of us and EARN that 5th spot out of ST.Personally, would love to see it.

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#55 Thrylos

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 08:01 PM

 

Can we please attempt to trade for Realmuto!Then we would be solid up the middle. 

 

Can he pitch?

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#56 RaymondLuxuryYacht

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 08:10 PM

Oh the humanity!!!

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#57 Brandon

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 08:12 PM

The Twins could have frontloaded the contract a little. Say 25 million the first 2 years and year 3 and 4 at 21 and 5 at 18 with 6 at 16. With opt out after 2 years.

If he opts out, he was worth 25 million. We get a draft pick with QO and someone else gets risk of decline years. This is most likely scenario.

He doesn't opt out, he won't be as big a drag the end years because we front loaded the contract.

How much spread is there between Darvish opting out and not opting out that we risk losing?

I thought this FO was statistically inclined to optimal options. Also how are we afraid to go 6 years and be afraid he may be good for 6 years so we won't include an opt out?
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#58 TheLeviathan

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 08:17 PM

"Don't worry about the ship sinking, I hear the life rafts stay afloat for at least ten minutes!"

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#59 Carole Keller

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 08:20 PM

"Don't worry about the ship sinking, I hear the life rafts stay afloat for at least ten minutes!"


But are there enough of them?
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#60 jimmer

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 08:20 PM

 

"Don't worry about the ship sinking, I hear the life rafts stay afloat for at least ten minutes!"

maybe there will be a nice sturdy wooden board to float on.

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