Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email
Photo

Article: Don't Panic Over Bad Breaks For Twins Rotation

ervin santana
  • Please log in to reply
214 replies to this topic

#201 spycake

spycake

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 14,181 posts

Posted 14 February 2018 - 01:41 PM

 

Maybe you've never been to Texas, but Arlington is located only minutes from both Dallas and Forth Worth. The Metropolitan area population is over 7,000,000 which I would classify as a big market.

He did say "not in terms of population". I think it's very fair to say the Rangers are not on the overall "big market" level as LA, NY, Boston, and Chicago.

  • DaveW likes this

#202 KirbyDome89

KirbyDome89

    Rochester Red Wings

  • Members
  • 1,603 posts

Posted 14 February 2018 - 01:57 PM

 

What I meant was until Carpenter went to St Louis he was mediocre, I mean he literally pitched his way off the Blue Jays (his team prior to pitching in St Louis) roster. If we as a mid market team want to compete let’s get guys who have excellent track records of developing both middle of the road starters (like Kyle Gibson) and youngsters (Berrios, Mejia, Gonsalves, Romero, Littell).

There's no doubt that they need improvement in both drafting and developing arms. 

 

A team like Tampa has consistently drafted and developed high level pitching. I think that's a much more sustainable model to emulate rather than signing or trading for guys like Carpenter or Jake Arrieta. 

 

Don't get me wrong, all teams should be looking for that diamond in the rough, but I think the other pitchers you listed (Martinez and Reyes) are better examples of the drafting/developing prowess of St. Louis.  


#203 terrydactyls1947

terrydactyls1947

    Ft Myers

  • Members
  • 340 posts
  • LocationCumberland Center, Maine

Posted 14 February 2018 - 02:27 PM

He did say "not in terms of population". I think it's very fair to say the Rangers are not on the overall "big market" level as LA, NY, Boston, and Chicago.


When you have Texas big oil money involved, it's a big market. Heck, they could even afford to have George Bush involved as a owner and still be sucessful.

#204 spycake

spycake

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 14,181 posts

Posted 14 February 2018 - 02:34 PM

 

When you have Texas big oil money involved, it's a big market. Heck, they could even afford to have George Bush involved as a owner and still be sucessful.

I think the context is, from the non-financial perspective of a player. No one is doubting the Rangers have more money, but assuming the Twins and Rangers put up comparable offers for a player, there's not really a "big market" argument for a player to prefer one over the other.


#205 terrydactyls1947

terrydactyls1947

    Ft Myers

  • Members
  • 340 posts
  • LocationCumberland Center, Maine

Posted 14 February 2018 - 02:38 PM

I think the context is, from the non-financial perspective of a player. No one is doubting the Rangers have more money, but assuming the Twins and Rangers put up comparable offers for a player, there's not really a "big market" argument for a player to prefer one over the other.


I will have to politely disagree with you. Where ever I've lived around this country, Dallas has been perceived (rightly or wrongly) as a high end city while Minneapolis is a neat place somewhere up north.
  • Sconnie likes this

#206 birdwatcher

birdwatcher

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 3,530 posts

Posted 14 February 2018 - 02:57 PM

 

Maybe you've never been to Texas, but Arlington is located only minutes from both Dallas and Forth Worth. The Metropolitan area population is over 7,000,000 which I would classify as a big market.

 

In terms of revenue, the half-dozen largest revenue producers have 50% more revnue to work with than Texas, whose 2016 revenues were $300M. The Twins in 2016 generated about 20% less revenue than Texas, around $250M, according to most sources. So that's less than half of what NYY has.

 

I for one am tired of hearing the "small market" excuse when it comes to an explanation of why someone wasn't signed. It appears to me that our hometown team can (and should) spend more towards $130M rather than $100-110M. That said, I also think it's reasonable to recognize the extraordinary spending capacity of the big shots and acknowledge the significant challenges that causes for teams to compete against them. There's a reason NYY has an elite prospect pipeline as part of their strategy to counterbalance the luxury tax as an attempt to level the field. They're going to outspend somewhere else once their payroll outspending gets capped.


#207 DaveW

DaveW

    Aaron Hicks update (5/17): .326 BA .464 OBP .616 SLG 1.080 OPS

  • Banned
  • 13,014 posts
  • LocationNYC aka Aaron Hicks Ville

Posted 14 February 2018 - 03:46 PM

 

Maybe you've never been to Texas, but Arlington is located only minutes from both Dallas and Forth Worth. The Metropolitan area population is over 7,000,000 which I would classify as a big market.

Well for one thing I lived in the DFW area for 3 years, so yes, I am well aware of the population, and I even made mention that 'big market' wasn't really put forth in JUST terms of population.

But Dallas isn't perceived in the same way as NY, LA, Chicago or even Houston IMO.

Either way the Twins and Rangers basically have the same revenue anyways. Most people outside of Texas view Dallas as just 'a city in the south'

Edited by DaveW, 14 February 2018 - 03:48 PM.

<p>Aaron Hicks 2017 stats so far (5/17/17): .326 BA .464 OBP .616 SLG 1.080 OPS 7 HR 19 RBI 6 SB 22 BBs 1.8WAR

#208 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Members
  • 15,236 posts

Posted 14 February 2018 - 03:58 PM

 

We'll agree to disagree about the rhetoric matching their actions. People are quibbling about Levine's use of the word "priority", which could be more innocuously construed as simply meaning "our first choice" or "our first step", but people are choosing to construe it more literally I guess. I think the spirit of their words and actions are completely aligned myself.

 

And take heart, Levi. In the last sentence of this article, Levine is telling you in no uncertain terms that starting pitching is the need and that they're going to address it. If they don't get us a starter, one that's an upgrade over Jaime Garcia, I'll meet you at One Target Way with my pitchfork.

 

http://www.startribu...ower/474000323/

 

Well, we're getting a little late in the game here, no? 

 

I don't want to parse out what "priority" means, but I believe sport front offices need to say what they mean and mean what they say.If you sell hope, you better be prepared to either deliver or at least give every sign that you tried your rear end off to do it.And if you don't, the blow-back is on you.

 

Otherwise, just don't stick your neck out into that territory.They could've just stuck with their "we're looking for pitching upgrades that make sense" schtick and we all know what that's code for.Fine.But that's not what they did and the expectations they built were evident here.Nick Nelson relied on them for a very upbeat blog not that long ago.So did several other regular bloggers here. There was clearly such a buzz in the fan base that the ownership threw a little gas on that fire at Twinsfest.

 

People took them at their word.They started to feel hope.And now they wonder whether they ever should've bought it at all.That's fair.Hell, that kind of hope is what makes us fans is it not?So I don't appreciate the way you are bouncing from thread to thread basically insinuating we're all a bunch of silly persons for taking them at their word and holding them accountable to it.They need to be held accountable to it - it's the only way this changes.And it needs to change.


#209 Vanimal46

Vanimal46

    Opener Poster

  • Members
  • 10,538 posts
  • LocationAustin, TX

Posted 14 February 2018 - 04:58 PM

Well for one thing I lived in the DFW area for 3 years, so yes, I am well aware of the population, and I even made mention that 'big market' wasn't really put forth in JUST terms of population.

But Dallas isn't perceived in the same way as NY, LA, Chicago or even Houston IMO.

Either way the Twins and Rangers basically have the same revenue anyways. Most people outside of Texas view Dallas as just 'a city in the south'


Concur from my perspective in Austin. I guess Dallas could be perceived as a high end city because it's littered with what we call '$30,000 millionaires'.

The ones acting like hot shot millionaires but only make $30k...

Houston is a concrete beast of a city with 7+ million people. Worth visiting, but I wouldn't want to live there.
  • DaveW likes this

#210 Mr. Brooks

Mr. Brooks

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 5,762 posts

Posted 14 February 2018 - 04:58 PM

With a few days to reflect, I have two theories of what I think might have happened.

A) I've always been extremely skeptical whenever TR and ownership said they never said no to money. Never believed it. Why would a GM hamstring himself, if ownership is practically begging him to spend more money?
So, perhaps Falvine took Pohlad at his word?
They start getting everyone amped up for Darvish, genuinely. Even Pohlad gets in on the hype, because he assumes they get the bit, and are just trying to build some pr for the upcoming season.
Then, when things start getting serious, Pohlad says, "whoa, guys. I figured the old regime would have filled you in. When you say ownership never says no to money, that's you falling on the sword for me. You didn't think you could really spend like a drunken sailor, did you?"

Falvine are devastated, but need to save face. So, they make an offer that, in real world dollars, looks like (and is) a lot of money. But, small enough that really has almost no chance.

Or....

B) Falvine, and Pohlad genuinely were going to do what it took to get Darvish. They were prepared to go to the upper levels of what he was projected to get.
But, the market was weird this year. The big dogs were sitting it out. And, that old Pohlad ideology of, let's get a bargain, let's really make sure we win this deal, starts creeping in.

Is it possible, they start to think. Can we have our cake and eat it too?
Maybe, just maybe, this off-season is so weird, that nobody will emerge with that 6th year, and that opt out.
Like a gambler talking himself into a long shot being a "can't miss", and throwing his mortgage payment onto a gimp horse, they convince themselves they can not just get Darvish, but get him at a bargain too.


I, obviously, think B is the more likely of the two, though I'm not sure A is PURE fantasy. I've just never believed this whole, oh Pohlad has never said no garbage.
  • Carlos Figueroa likes this

#211 spycake

spycake

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 14,181 posts

Posted 14 February 2018 - 05:36 PM

FWIW, Levine apparently reiterated the "priority" line a few week later than the November article I recalled. Molitor's quote from the same December article is a little more telling, though:

https://amp.mlb.com/...arvish.amp.html

"We want to make sure that the player and his team understand that we want to be part of discussions and we have targeted him as somebody we have tremendous interest in," Molitor said. "Where that's going to go, where the market's going to go, what we're able to do, how far other teams are willing to go, you know, things you can't control."


That doesn't sound too aggressive -- that sounds more like what I say when I hang around bake sales, hoping someone gives me a tray of unsold muffins at the end.
  • Riverbrian likes this

#212 USAFChief

USAFChief

    Anyone got a smoke?

  • Twins Mods
  • 21,933 posts
  • LocationTucson

Posted 15 February 2018 - 02:48 PM

FWIW, Levine apparently reiterated the "priority" line a few week later than the November article I recalled. Molitor's quote from the same December article is a little more telling, though:https://amp.mlb.com/...arvish.amp.html

That doesn't sound too aggressive -- that sounds more like what I say when I hang around bake sales, hoping someone gives me a tray of unsold muffins at the end.

how often does that work? Don’t need exact numbers, a ballpark estimate is fine.

Also...are they usually stale by that point?

Edit: asking for a friend
  • Riverbrian likes this

Cutting my carbs...with a pizza slicer.


#213 snap4birds

snap4birds

    Cedar Rapids

  • Members
  • 94 posts

Posted 16 February 2018 - 03:02 PM

 

It helps the Cardinals when they have pitching prospects that flourish such as Adam Wainwright, Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha, Carlos Martinez, and Luke Weaver. Plus a lot of thier positional players are home grown with either an aggressive trade or free agent signing every now and then. The real key for the Cardinals though is good pitcher development.

I think the biggest key for the Cardinals was drafting Albert Pujols in the 13th round.They surrounded him with decent homegrown talent and traded for most of the rest of their all-star type talent (Rolen, Edmonds, Wainwright).Carpenter was a FA who sat out his first year with an injury, I think.I guess that Molina guy was a nice draft pick, too.But Pujols was definitely the tent pole or unicorn or whatever they're calling it nowadays. 

If Buxton or Sano becomes that kind of player, then the Twins will need to open the pocketbook a little more and/or trade some of their prospects.I always thought Sano had the better chance at that, but Buxton has actually out-WARed him so far (7.2 to 5.4 per baseball-reference) in about 350 fewer at-bats.


#214 DaveW

DaveW

    Aaron Hicks update (5/17): .326 BA .464 OBP .616 SLG 1.080 OPS

  • Banned
  • 13,014 posts
  • LocationNYC aka Aaron Hicks Ville

Posted 16 February 2018 - 08:06 PM

Is signing Sanchez a bad break or just a bad signing? ;) jk...sorta
  • Sconnie and jimmer like this
<p>Aaron Hicks 2017 stats so far (5/17/17): .326 BA .464 OBP .616 SLG 1.080 OPS 7 HR 19 RBI 6 SB 22 BBs 1.8WAR

#215 Sconnie

Sconnie

    Touch ‘em all!

  • Members
  • 3,825 posts
  • LocationNW Wisconsin

Posted 17 February 2018 - 07:11 PM

Is signing Sanchez a bad break or just a bad signing? ;) jk...sorta

i was disappointed with the half hearted stab at Darvish. If their best offer is 30% off projection and 11% off the winning bid, they were never serious.

Now after a major league deal, even non guaranteed, with Sanchez I’m down right PISSED OFF! Minor league with Sanchez or signing Garcia, or another 3rd tier, fine, but mashing the panic button on Sanchez... ugh



Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: ervin santana