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2017 Staff Compared to 2018

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#21 Rosterman

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 12:28 AM

Well, the plus is that Kyle needs to pitch bigtime to get a free agent contract.

 

So does Ervin, to cash in on a lightweight middle 2018 marketplace.

 

How hungry are Gonsalves, Littell et al. If anything, the Twins actions showed last year that the leash could be short if others are pushing the envelope.

 

 

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#22 theBOMisthebomb

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 12:58 AM

What is this injury history you keep mentioning with Darvish?
Hasn't he been pretty healthy, outside of the TJ Surgery?

He injured the hopes and dreams of Dodgers fans waiting nearly 30 years for a World Series title.

#23 Jham

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 01:31 AM

I guess we will just have to play the games then because we certainly have different opinions on Darvich and the Twins starters. Time will tell.


That's fair, but what are your opinions based on? I've never seen Gonsalves or Romero pitch. Maybe an inning or two last spring training. Mejia peaked at 91 on a BA midseason top 100 list. Gonsalves reached 99. Romero would be higher if more seasoned and durable. Duffy... May is fine but had arm and back problems on top of sporadic command and results. Hughes will either be good again or retire I suspect.

I get that you're skeptical of Darish and don't like the years, but the overall contact and aav was very reasonable compared to wishing for lightening in a bottle with 2 rookies and two guys off of surgery.
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#24 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 06:12 AM

2014- 144 innings
2015- out
2016- 100 innings
2017- 186 innings

To me looks like a 50/50 coin toss what you get next. Aging strike out pitcher who has logged a lot of innings when including his Japan stats. Coming off a average at best 2017. Worth 20 million. Not IMO.


2014 and 2016 were both shortened by the timing of the TJ Surgery.
If you want to claim that one significant injury means he's injury prone, then I don't think you are being objective.

In what way was he "average at best" in 2017?

He had 3.8 bWAR. If you want to go old school, his ERA+ was 122, which is, by definition, 22% better than average.
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#25 notoriousgod71

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 07:31 AM

What happens if Berrios gets hurt or regresses? Does our rotation have an ERA under 6?

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#26 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 07:31 AM

Very true. Berrios slots into our number 1 at this point. What I dont see Dave is a Hughes or Santiago so I'll put a plus in the column for 2018 for that. I like what we may look like in May and June with Santana and May coming back plus not paying a Darvich type 20 million to sit on the DL or be a .500 pitcher.

It’s easy to bash Santiago but he was just fine before the injury. The Twins got one very good month out of him and one kinda bad month (mostly okay until the end when he fell apart, probably injury-related but I can’t recall the exact timeline offhand).


#27 USAFChief

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 07:45 AM

Days from pitchers and catchers reporting, and from where I sit this rotation is a disaster.

What an AWFUL job thus far by Falvine. It’s not mediocre, it’s not “well, maybe if you squint hard...,”. It’s awful.

And let’s be realistic. Slegers, et al aren’t going to help, nor are Gonsalves/Romero. At their BEST none of them are difference makers, at least not in 2018, if ever.

Hugely disappointed. Not much time/opportunity to rescue this, either. They could realistically have Cole and Darvish at the top of the rotation.
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#28 drjim

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 08:01 AM

Days from pitchers and catchers reporting, and from where I sit this rotation is a disaster.

What an AWFUL job thus far by Falvine. It’s not mediocre, it’s not “well, maybe if you squint hard...,”. It’s awful.

And let’s be realistic. Slegers, et al aren’t going to help, nor are Gonsalves/Romero. At their BEST none of them are difference makers, at least not in 2018, if ever.

Hugely disappointed. Not much time/opportunity to rescue this, either. They could realistically have Cole and Darvish at the top of the rotation.


I would at least wait until 3 free agent pitchers sign until there is complete doom and gloom.
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#29 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 08:02 AM

 

Days from pitchers and catchers reporting, and from where I sit this rotation is a disaster.

What an AWFUL job thus far by Falvine. It’s not mediocre, it’s not “well, maybe if you squint hard...,”. It’s awful.

And let’s be realistic. Slegers, et al aren’t going to help, nor are Gonsalves/Romero. At their BEST none of them are difference makers, at least not in 2018, if ever.

Hugely disappointed. Not much time/opportunity to rescue this, either. They could realistically have Cole and Darvish at the top of the rotation.

Given that Darvish signed yesterday and almost every free agent SP worth mentioning is still available, I'm not so sure opportunity to solve this issue is lacking.

 

Even though the Twins missed on Darvish, picking up a competent SP would make this offseason acceptable, maybe even good. It's hard to complain about their earlier acquisitions and the Reed deal was very good, as was Pineda (though that likely doesn't matter for 2018).

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#30 USAFChief

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 08:16 AM

Given that Darvish signed yesterday and almost every free agent SP worth mentioning is still available, I'm not so sure opportunity to solve this issue is lacking.
 
Even though the Twins missed on Darvish, picking up a competent SP would make this offseason acceptable, maybe even good. It's hard to complain about their earlier acquisitions and the Reed deal was very good, as was Pineda (though that likely doesn't matter for 2018).


Look at the opening series rotation. How is that fixable at this point? Cobb/Lynn do nothing significant to help, they aren’t signing Arrieta, and in any case they needed to add two starters better than Berrios to be serious postseason contenders.

“A competent SP” is way short of that, and I remind you even THAT hasn’t happened yet. I will not be happy with “a competent SP” even if it does happen. What’s the goal here? Keep the WC game closer?
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#31 mikelink45

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 08:19 AM

 

Pitchers and catchers report in 3 days. They’ll sign Chris Tillman to be the 4th starter and bring up Slegers when they need a 5th starter

Tillman had a -2.2 WAR last year.Do you really think our rookie pitchers would be worse?

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#32 mikelink45

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 08:23 AM

One quote in this string is that rookie pitchers do not do well in their first year.If that is the case, lets get that out of the way - play to win what we can this year and play for much more in 2019.Get the young arms in and give them some opportunities to learn their final lessons.Hope that Gibson remembers the lessons that gave him a decent last half of the year, hope Mejia is past his rookie jitters and improves, and see if Gonsalves and Romero have what it takes. 

​We do not have much room to maneuver now.The FA pitching class is as poor as we suspected and the market shows it.We either need a good trade for Archer or someone of that quality or we use our young arms until Santana returns and hope that 2 of the 3 - Romero, Gonsalves, Mejia - are ready.And if not them - Enns, Sleger, Jorge.Keep putting the arms out their until we find what we want.

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#33 Teddy

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 08:28 AM

Listen, I'm not going to panic because the front office wouldn't over pay a pitcher to get him to come to what must be considered a non-premium destination. 

 

Instead, I'm going to look at track record, specifically of Derek Falvey. How was the Indians' rotation acquired?

 

Josh Tomlin, SP: Drafted 19th Rd ’06

Danny Salazar, SP/RP: International Free Agent (D.R.) July ’08

Carlos Carrasco, SP: July ’09 (PHI) — Acquired in the trade that sent Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco to the Phillies.

Corey Kluber, SP: July ’10 (SD) — Acquired in the three-team trade that sent Ryan Ludwick to the Padres and Jake Westbrook and Nick Greenwood to the Cardinals.

Trevor Bauer, SP: December ’12 (ARZ) — Acquired in the trade that sent Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Donald to the Reds and Didi Gregorius, Tony Sipp and Lars Anderson to the Diamondbacks.

Mike Clevinger, SP: August ’14 (LAA) — Acquired in the trade that sent Vinnie Pestano to the Angels.

 

Matter of fact, if you look at their roster last year, only one player was a big-time Free Agent, that being Edwin Encarnacion, who signed just a three-year deal.In other words, the Indians' front office did not overpay for ANYBODY like we're clamoring for the Twins to do with Darvish.

 

So I'm going to be patient and watch what happens, and support the guys they put on the field.

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#34 jorgenswest

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 08:42 AM

Tillman had a -2.2 WAR last year.Do you really think our rookie pitchers would be worse?


No. I also don’t think it is very wise to make future projections based on one injury filled shortened season. I sure hope that isn’t how the front office is projecting players.

His injury may have changed his skill. He may no longer be the pitcher he was the previous 4 years. If he is not, their commitment will be minimal at 1 year and they can move on. If he does find his preinjury form, they will have a useful asset that can help them.
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#35 Twinfan & Dad

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 08:50 AM

First off for all of the Darvich fans, im sorry he didnt sign with the Twins. I speculate if he really wanted to sign here, HE WOULD HAVE. Falvey made the offer, the highest offer the Twins have ever made for a pitcher, we lost. Moving forward if you think that Falvey doesnt have a Plan B and a Plan C then again we are in disagreement. We know when healthy Santana is our 1 at this point. Berrios is our 2. Both of these pitchers could regress I guess and if so, we are in a world of hurt. If however Santana continues to pitch like he has with a WAR higher than Darvich and Berrios continues to move closer to being our ace then we are on our way. Gibson put some good starts together in the second half of last season. Is this the new version of what we will see moving forward, I hope so. If not then it time to move on from him because enough is enough. We have been teased for too long. These 3 will be in the rotation if healthy. This is where the confidence that I have in Falvey comes in. I think what he did in his first draft was nothing short of Brilliant. I know that only time will tell because a few of these draft picks have to hit the Majors for it to truely be a success but the way he navigated his selections was well thought out. He had a plan and he executed. IMO Falvey will get us another arm SOON. With Darvich off the board hopefully the rest of the free agents will come off the board quickly. Personally, I would prefer the trade route to find a quality, team controlled, young and affortable arm. We would have to move young assets to acquire but we dont have room for all of them anyways. Lewis is off limits though. Gonsalves and Romero will both get looks in Spring Training and my hope is that Gonsalves sticks. The guy can pitch. Teams have to give the ball to the young prospects at some point and see how they respond. Bottom line, if you know how to pitch and you have good stuff, repitition makes you better. I think he will stick this year. May will be back in May hopefully. Pitch count I imagine but with an improved bullpen if we could get him up to 75 pitches early maybe we can get 5 innings out of him. Again high hopes. As you might have noticed there is a lot of hope and if's in what I've said but isnt that true every preseason. Every player has question marks entering a new season. Can younger players make the jump up, will aging players regress and stay healthy, will players such as a Gibson be a contender or a pretender? I do know that I prefer to believe in this front office moving forward. I became a Twins Fan when I was 7 years old listening to the radio with my Dad and that was 50 years ago. I have been frustrated in the past as many of you feel now, but I am HOPEFUL that what we started last year with the young nucleus of studs continues and that Falvey fills in the holes. GO TWINS!
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#36 Jham

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 09:11 AM

We either need a good trade for Archer or someone of that quality or we use our young arms until Santana returns and hope that 2 of the 3 - Romero, Gonsalves, Mejia - are ready. And if not them - Enns, Sleger, Jorge. Keep putting the arms out their until we find what we want.


It's not that rookie pitchers can't be good. It's that none of the guys you mention other than Romero are projected to be better than Kyle Gibson at their peaks. Romero should be conserved for innings and probably debut putt of the pen.

The only reason this stings is because the opportunity to sign a Darvish doesn't come along very often for a team with our self-imposed budget restraints.

#37 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 09:20 AM

Look at the opening series rotation. How is that fixable at this point? Cobb/Lynn do nothing significant to help, they aren’t signing Arrieta, and in any case they needed to add two starters better than Berrios to be serious postseason contenders.

“A competent SP” is way short of that, and I remind you even THAT hasn’t happened yet. I will not be happy with “a competent SP” even if it does happen. What’s the goal here? Keep the WC game closer?

Given that there was one starter better than Berrios available in free agency, perhaps your expectations were set unreasonably high.

Is anyone confident that any free agent not named Yu Darvish will be markedly better than Berrios in 2018? I’m not.
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#38 Sconnie

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 09:22 AM

Tillman had a -2.2 WAR last year. Do you really think our rookie pitchers would be worse?

im not a big fan of Tillman, but he could be a fine lotto ticket on a team with a solid 1-4 rotation. The Twins don’t fit that profile do they?

The rookies won’t have a long enough leash to accumulate -2.2 WAR but yes, they will most certainly be on that pace in shorter stretches. None of them have near enough experience past high A nor have they gotten any of the short term call ups to the bigs.

Throwing them into the deep end will be painful. It can help develop for the future, but now is not the time for that as the hitting side of the game is ready now. Now is the time to acquire a veteran rotation
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#39 notoriousgod71

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 09:22 AM

 

Listen, I'm not going to panic because the front office wouldn't over pay a pitcher to get him to come to what must be considered a non-premium destination. 

 

Instead, I'm going to look at track record, specifically of Derek Falvey. How was the Indians' rotation acquired?

 

Josh Tomlin, SP: Drafted 19th Rd ’06

Danny Salazar, SP/RP: International Free Agent (D.R.) July ’08

Carlos Carrasco, SP: July ’09 (PHI) — Acquired in the trade that sent Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco to the Phillies.

Corey Kluber, SP: July ’10 (SD) — Acquired in the three-team trade that sent Ryan Ludwick to the Padres and Jake Westbrook and Nick Greenwood to the Cardinals.

Trevor Bauer, SP: December ’12 (ARZ) — Acquired in the trade that sent Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Donald to the Reds and Didi Gregorius, Tony Sipp and Lars Anderson to the Diamondbacks.

Mike Clevinger, SP: August ’14 (LAA) — Acquired in the trade that sent Vinnie Pestano to the Angels.

 

Matter of fact, if you look at their roster last year, only one player was a big-time Free Agent, that being Edwin Encarnacion, who signed just a three-year deal.In other words, the Indians' front office did not overpay for ANYBODY like we're clamoring for the Twins to do with Darvish.

 

So I'm going to be patient and watch what happens, and support the guys they put on the field.

 

We don't have a Cliff Lee or Shin-Soo Choo to trade for any one.

 

Nor should we be rebuilding at this point.

Edited by notoriousgod71, 11 February 2018 - 10:12 AM.

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#40 notoriousgod71

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Posted 11 February 2018 - 09:23 AM

 

 

First off for all of the Darvich fans, im sorry he didnt sign with the Twins. I speculate if he really wanted to sign here, HE WOULD HAVE. Falvey made the offer, the highest offer the Twins have ever made for a pitcher, we lost. Moving forward if you think that Falvey doesnt have a Plan B and a Plan C then again we are in disagreement.

 

The thing is Plan B and C are not as good as Plan A. Otherwise they would be Plan A.