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Will the Twins ever sign a top free agent or are we all just wasting our time?

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#41 drjim

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 04:16 PM

If it's between a trade for Odorizzi or signing Cobb/Lynn I would sign either of the 2 and give up the unknown talent (pick) rather than prospects who have started to establish themselves. Both Cobb and Lynn would be a boost, but IMO they aren't the pitcher you want starting game 1 or 2 of a playoff series. They certainly could sign either of the two and still work out a trade. That might be the best case scenario.

True, there's downside risk, but after swinging and missing on Darvish the Twins have to do something.


I agree they don't sign game 1 or likely game 2. I would see them as a solid 3 type.

Twins need Berrios to take that spot, and if they are really in competition in the deadline, they hopefully have the prospect inventory to add a short term arm.

That is generally the formula for mid market teams.

I really want nothing to do with trading for a mid rotation guy like Odorizzi.
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#42 drjim

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 04:17 PM

Couldn't hurt


Actually, it could.
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#43 gunnarthor

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 04:19 PM

 

Actually, it could.

I'm willing to risk it


#44 Platoon

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 04:20 PM

I wasn't surprised or disappointed that Darvish wasn't coming here. There was never a rationale for it. I like MN, but it's not an attractive destination for FA with a full list of choices. And an ownership that won't pay the extra cash to overcome that perception, just or not. But the bottom line is there is no reason or history to see it happening. Why would I be disappointed or surprised over something that had almost no chance of happening. Middle of the pack guys, sure. But whether Darvish is or isn't still top flight, he was this years top flight. And the Twins are in SP hell right now. All I can say is I hope they made an intentional decision to move now in another direction. Please tell me there is more?
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#45 Carole Keller

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 04:20 PM

 

I would go 4 years on Cobb or Lynn, but definite downside risk.

As much as people didn't want to go 6 on Darvish, I wouldn't want to go 4 on either of those two. I think Darvish was worth the 6th year for the upside in the short term. Those two don't have the same upside to make 4 worth it to me, plus losing draft picks. I'd go 3 on Lynn, he'd be my preferred.

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#46 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 04:24 PM

I expect them to sign a good free agent. Never anticipated them outbidding the top teams for the top guys.
By short deals, I meant elite guys near end of career, not elite guys looking at first fa deal.

who specifically would be elite but accept a one year deal

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#47 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 04:26 PM

If the market cannot support a 6/126 contract, then why were fans told this was a serious negotiation? I would genuinely like some thoughtful responses.
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#48 DaveW

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 04:35 PM

Love how you can go into hyperbolic histrionics over this.

Where was I wrong?

Have the Twins Won a playoff game in the last 10 years? Have they won more than one playoff series in 25?

Have they signed any big named free agent for $70 mil+?

A team that has this little success in this many years earns some fair criticism IMO
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#49 Jham

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 04:37 PM

So what? If they'd waited a year and signed him to the same deal, it would have been more satisfying to you?

The fact remains that the Twins are still actively paying out one of the largest contracts in MLB history. A much bigger one than Darvish just got. And there are still plenty of other FAs out there. So let's ease up on the exaggerated outrage a little.


You're right. It was a complete no-brainer. And look how it turned out. Isn't that sort of instructive about the nature of these contracts?


To be fair, Mauer and his agent suggested that he would not give a hometown discount. At the time he signed, experts were throwing the $300 mil number around.

I'd also say that the Mauer deal should certainly not dissuade anyone from signing a player in his prime to a contract lasting beyond it.

Finally, I question how many years we spent rebuilding when we could have been competing. And the years we were competing how many we could have contended. And in the years we could do neither, how much player equity we could have acquired at the trade deadline had we had more than Eduardo Nunez and Kevin Correia to deal. Can't trade a half season of Ardolis Chapman for a ransom if you never sign him in the first place.
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#50 Platoon

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 04:38 PM

So what? If they'd waited a year and signed him to the same deal, it would have been more satisfying to you?

The fact remains that the Twins are still actively paying out one of the largest contracts in MLB history. A much bigger one than Darvish just got. And there are still plenty of other FAs out there. So let's ease up on the exaggerated outrage a little.



You're right. It was a complete no-brainer. And look how it turned out. Isn't that sort of instructive about the nature of these contracts?

Depends on injuries and the intent. As you said, Mauer was a no brainer. I doubt the ten year term was open to too much discussion. Without his getting whacked incessantly by foul balls and concussed it likely would have ended up as a fair deal. As to the intent, for Mauer it would be to keep the pitchforks in the barn. As to a Darvish type? The intent is to make this roster competitive and valid. No team thinks the last three years he is getting is worth it. Is that length of contract for someone his age a good deal? The Twins dont, and never have, and other teams might not either but take the lost years into the equation. I have always hoped Falvine will help the team draft, develop, promote, and trade assets to remain competitive. I never for a moment expected them to get involved in glitzy FA signings. It ain't their money.

Edited by Platoon, 10 February 2018 - 04:58 PM.

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#51 KirbyDome89

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 04:48 PM

 

I agree they don't sign game 1 or likely game 2. I would see them as a solid 3 type.

Twins need Berrios to take that spot, and if they are really in competition in the deadline, they hopefully have the prospect inventory to add a short term arm.

That is generally the formula for mid market teams.

I really want nothing to do with trading for a mid rotation guy like Odorizzi.

Oh for sure, they aren't bringing in 2 pitchers better than Berrios so his development is key regardless of who they sign. 

 

Agreed, I have no interest in trading for a guy like Odorizzi either. 

 

My only quibble is that if they're serious about competing I would rather they make the trade for a front end guy now rather than at the deadline. Players, especially pitchers, tend to be more pricey at the trade deadline. If they're going to give up a high end prospect like Gordon or Gonsalves at the deadline to rent an ace for 3 months, I would prefer they offer a bigger package now, i.e. Kepler, Gordon, Gonsalves, or whatever it takes (within reason obviously,) and get a guy like Archer with years of team control. I just think it's a better value long term and I worry about a rotation even with Cobb or Lynn making it to the deadline still in contention. Of course those proposals are hypothetical and they might get the arm they need in July for less. 

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#52 jimbo92107

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 04:54 PM

I guess the Pohlads just don't have enough money.

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#53 Dantes929

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 04:56 PM

 

Depends on what you mean by top FA. Both Nolasco and Santana were top 10 FA in their respective years. If you mean shelling out for Darvish or someone even more expensive, no. The Pohlads still own this team.

I wasn't so high on Nolasco because he was another NL 4.0 type guy but however he was considered, Santana has put up top numbers for us and still seems to go underappreciated. I think the Cubs would be really happy if Darvish has 6 years of putting up the numbers Santana has the last two.  

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#54 Matt Johnson

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 04:58 PM

Jack Morris.


#55 jimmer

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 05:00 PM

 

Jack Morris.

Ah yes, the one year contract 27 years ago where we signed a 36 year old coming off two poor seasons :-)

Edited by jimmer, 10 February 2018 - 05:01 PM.

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#56 DaveW

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 05:12 PM

I guess the Pohlads just don't have enough money.


Should foreclose on a few more family farms.
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#57 DaveW

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 05:14 PM

Ah yes, the one year contract 27 years ago where we signed a 36 year old coming off two poor seasons :-)


Yeah the Jack Morris and Chilli Davis ones sort of prove my point in both directions:

One: they were both small deals but still at least a tiny bit aggressive.

Two: it actually freaking paid off!!!

The Santana signing has paid off as well! It’s almost like: hey, maybe spending REAL money on free agents from time to time isn’t the worst idea in the world, no?

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#58 Matt Johnson

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 05:18 PM

 

Ah yes, the one year contract 27 years ago where we signed a 36 year old coming off two poor seasons :-)

The question was "will the Twins ever sign a top free agent?" The Twins made Morris the highest paid pitcher in the American League, a distinction which he had previously enjoyed in 1987 and '88, and would again in 1993. 

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#59 PseudoSABR

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 05:21 PM

 

If the market cannot support a 6/126 contract, then why were fans told this was a serious negotiation? I would genuinely like some thoughtful responses.

The question should be how much more would Darvish have needed to choose Minnesota over the Cubs. The deal also isn't a straight 6/126 it has incentives up to 150 million, and has an opt-out clause (not sure which year*).  

 

*Edit

Edited by PseudoSABR, 10 February 2018 - 05:22 PM.

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#60 Matt Johnson

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 05:24 PM

I know it's kind of a smartass response. If Dave were in my class, I'd ask him to rephrase the question. 

 

The most interesting thing to me about the Twins and free agency is how vociferously Twins fans bitch and moan about the Yankees' penchant for buying up mercenaries, but then rail against Twins management for not doing the same thing. I guess it's a convenient stance to take considering that the Twins aren't likely to make us look like hypocrites. 

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