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Article: The Darvish Contingency Plan

yu darvish chris archer alex cobb lance lynn jake odorizzi
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#41 Puckett34

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 04:49 PM

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#42 Rosterman

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 04:54 PM

We should've resigned Chris Gimenez!

 

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#43 Thrylos

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 04:55 PM

Sounded like Darvish wanted "the big city", since he has been waiting for the Yankees and Dodgers.Guess he thinks that Chicago is the same as LA or NYC.He'll get what he deserves.

 

For the Twins should be Archer or bust.Nobody else out there is good enough for them to content deep into the post-season, and if they do not content deep into the post-season, they might as well, put out the for sale sign, shop Dozier and Santana (when his finger heals), and play the kids to see what they have...

Edited by Thrylos, 10 February 2018 - 04:56 PM.

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#44 jimmer

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 05:07 PM

 

He'll get what he deserves.

 

 

What does he deserve?

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#45 NewClearHarley

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 05:07 PM

 

I'd probably make a push Archer hoping that he turns into a stud with an improved defense behind him and (hopefully) better run support. If the Twins front believe he is going to be more valuable over the next four years than Kepler will then pull the trigger. I agree that it is easier to replace position players than it is to obtain or develop starting pitching. I'm a Kepler believer, but you have to give up something to get something. 

 

I do think the roster looks better with Archer on it than Kepler on it.I also think that in four years looking back at how Archer and Darvish perform, we, as fans, won't be too disappointed.

 

Offer the Rays Kepler, Gordon, their pick of Gonsalves/Romero, and their pick of a wildcard Thorpe/Graterol/Baddoo/Enlow/Palacios for Archer and maybe a wildcard from their system.If they pass, they pass and at that point we know the asking price is too high and probably not worth the plunge.

 

I'd look to sign Maybin or Gomez to a one year deal with a team option for 2019. No way they sign Martinez, although that would be a pretty nice addition to an already solid offense.

I want archer a lot but even I thinkthat is too much. If that is what Archer commands - trade them something less for Odorizzi and sign Cobb. For Archer, I'd do Thorpe/Kepler/Gordon and offer to take on Denard's contract.

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#46 jimmer

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 05:08 PM

 

I'd probably make a push Archer hoping that he turns into a stud with an improved defense behind him and (hopefully) better run support. If the Twins front believe he is going to be more valuable over the next four years than Kepler will then pull the trigger. I agree that it is easier to replace position players than it is to obtain or develop starting pitching. I'm a Kepler believer, but you have to give up something to get something. 

 

I do think the roster looks better with Archer on it than Kepler on it.I also think that in four years looking back at how Archer and Darvish perform, we, as fans, won't be too disappointed.

 

Offer the Rays Kepler, Gordon, their pick of Gonsalves/Romero, and their pick of a wildcard Thorpe/Graterol/Baddoo/Enlow/Palacios for Archer and maybe a wildcard from their system.If they pass, they pass and at that point we know the asking price is too high and probably not worth the plunge.

 

I'd look to sign Maybin or Gomez to a one year deal with a team option for 2019. No way they sign Martinez, although that would be a pretty nice addition to an already solid offense.

Archer is already a stud.

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#47 cmoss84

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 05:08 PM

https://www.mlb.com/...ubs/c-266253950

 

This article says the Dodgers offered a sixyear deal as well. We are not the only ones he passed up. 

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#48 drjim

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 05:15 PM

Taking a step back:

1. Really hard for Twins to outbid large market teams (who can eat dead years much easier).

2. Hard for the Twins to go 6 years on a really good, but not elite starter.

3. Darvish signed with a better, more competitive team, in a bigger market, and in the easier league. Bigger contract aside, seems kind of a no brainer.
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#49 whosafraidofluigirussolo

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 05:20 PM

I'm not sure what to make of Darvish's reported contract vs. what the Twins could have offered, becausethe AAV clearly is lower than expected, and if they didn't offer more than $21M/year that seems like a big mistake - but would we have wanted them to top that total value if they weren't willing to go six years? That would have meant topping $25M/year over five years. And depending on how easy the reported incentives from the Cubs are for Yu to reach, the $21M/yr actually may not be the right point of comparison. In other words, there's a way to read these numbers where I understand why the Twins would balk.

 

Arrieta might be the most interesting domino to watch now. He seems to be perceived as the closest thing to Yu's tier among free agents, but also something seems to be keeping teams away, presumably more perceived risk of fast decline. With Darvish's deal known, I wonder if a shorter deal for Arrieta at slightly higher AAV would end up being a compromise - palatable to teams and ostensibly still a win for Boras.

 

The Twins' new pitching analytics guru came from the Rays. If they acquired any of Cobb, Archer or Odorizzi I would tend to trust their valuation of whichever one pretty confidently - though perhaps that would also help the Rays' case to get more value back in trade for one of the latter two, since the teams might be assumed to value these guys similarly.

 

I think I recall a stat geek wrote somewhere about Odorizzi having a high swing-and-miss rate that hadn't translated into great K rates or overall performance yet. That seems like an interesting indicator of some remaining upside.

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#50 nicksaviking

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 05:21 PM

Taking a step back:
1. Really hard for Twins to outbid large market teams (who can eat dead years much easier).
2. Hard for the Twins to go 6 years on a really good, but not elite starter.
3. Darvish signed with a better, more competitive team, in a bigger market, and in the easier league. Bigger contract aside, seems kind of a no brainer.

But they've always known that they'd have to pay more than the glitzy teams to get the same player.

So why make a spectacle all off season if they werent planning on making the significantly best offer?
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#51 Tommygun921

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 05:21 PM

Only way I'd trade Kepler to TB is if it's straight up for Archer. I think sending Kepler, Gordon and either Gonsalves or Romero would be ridiculous.
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#52 mikelink45

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 05:30 PM

 

There will still be Darvish threads to read (or ignore). Three so far today have been started ...

I have enjoyed your responses to my posts.I love to write posts that might agitate and get discussion going.Thank you for reading what I write and responding with interesting and challenging posts.

 

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#53 drjim

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 05:30 PM

But they've always known that they'd have to pay more than the glitzy teams to get the same player.

So why make a spectacle all off season if they werent planning on making the significantly best offer?


Good question. I never thought they had much of a chance to sign him, similar to Ohtani.
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#54 jorgenswest

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 05:31 PM

At this late point hopefully they get a pitcher at a little less cost than originally expected. Some team might react and overpay but if the Twins get Lynn/Cobb for 3 years instead of 4 or 5 or Garcia/Tillman on a 1 year deal they get help this year and still can pursue that starter in trade.

It is critical that a couple of prospects take a big step forward towards top 20 mlb so that the Twins have the currency to make that deal.
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#55 Blake

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 05:56 PM

The Cubs offered a good contract and Darvish has the chance to play for Joe Maddon on a team that won the World Series just a couple of years ago.

 

I have to believe players looks for more than just dollars when it comes to signing a contract.

 

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#56 Winston Smith

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 05:57 PM

 

What does he deserve?

$126 mill I think.

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#57 Oxtung

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 06:14 PM

After looking at Greinke's remaining contract I am even more disappointed that the Twins didn't get Darvish.

 

While Greinke is a better pitcher he's not $10M more per year better and we also miss the early years with the highest probability of great seasons. Oh yeah, we also have to give up prospects. Remind me how this is better than just signing Darvish?

 

I guess at this point I'd like the Twins to .... I don't even know. None of the options are appealing at this point.


#58 Dave The Dastardly

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 06:17 PM

 

What does he deserve?

May we get what we want, may we get what we need, but may we never get what we deserve.

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#59 DocBauer

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 06:26 PM

Disappointed and upset. As I stated in the other post, we'll never know the final offer or if Darvish really wanted to come here at all. (Honestly, I never thought he wanted to). Shame on the Twins if they close and didn't blink.

That being said, I'm OK with a trade. I actually think I like Odorizzi more than Archer. Either way, I'm really not in on trading Kepler, and not just because I really believe in his game and potential. I'm also not sure there is anyone close to replacing him, which opens up another can of worms. To me, a trade is 4 or maybe even 5 quality prospects and keep the ML team intact.

I much prefer money be spent at this point on either Lynn or Cobb. Honestly, I'm torn between both of them. They are not Darvish, but as I've stated before, they move the needle. 3 or 4 year deal or a 1 year to enter the market again? That's a different question.

But I make the move for one of them. I then try for a 1 year deal on Garcia. Not interested? Then go to the next 1 year option. At this point, you lose a draft pick in the upper 20's. The system can afford that. You keep the roster and milb system intact for depth, competition, promotion and trade depth this year, next offseason, and you STILL deepen your rotation.

You steel yourself for the temporary loss of Santana and any lingering issues, if they surface, and await a return of May. If nothing else, you help build a bridge to gain more time for Gonsalves and others to get ready.

Can you imagine a couple positive signings and come mid season the Twins actually have enough depth to trade a pitcher, (Gibson or Mejia as possibilities), or milb players, relievers, or a combination thereof to add an important piece or two?

Make a couple signings. Keep the system and ML roster intact. You help move the needle and build more depth. THEN you make additional moves as you can.

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#60 darin617

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 06:26 PM

 

If they overpay TB in terms of prospects to get Archer or Odorizzi rather than overpay Darvish straight cash homey I'm going to be upset.

Youcan't overpay for someone who doesn't want to come here. Up to $150M. Not sure the terms since they are not public yet.




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