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Article: The Darvish Contingency Plan

yu darvish chris archer alex cobb lance lynn jake odorizzi
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#21 gunnarthor

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 03:37 PM

There are at 105m payroll already. I think that probably takes Arrieta, Lynn and Cobb out. They might be able to push to 115 or even 120 (but they'll sell off really quick if they aren't in it to save the Pohlads some money). I think realistically we're going to get someone like Jaime Garcia or maybe a trade for Odorizzi.

 

This really shouldn't be surprising. Pohlads took Falvey from Cleveland and they built their teams through FA and drafts. We aren't going to be a big payroll team. Levine and Falvey are going to be following the Ryan model and we just hope that they do it even better.

Edited by gunnarthor, 10 February 2018 - 03:37 PM.


#22 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 03:37 PM

I don't know, I think if TB wants Kepler as a main part of an Archer deal they're the one's overpaying. The guy can't hit lefties, he's almost certainly going to be a platoon player.
But no interest in Cobb, the guy can't strike anyone out which is this staff's biggest problem. Unless the can get Arrietta on a one year deal, pass on the free agents, none of them have the ceiling to be what this team needs.

On the other hand, Kepler is part of the chemistry of this team, and he could make a jump in how he hits lefties this year. As for Cobb, I just see him as the next best FA to Darvish. Lynn would not be a fit here except maybe a short 1-2 year deal and Arrieta is toast. Cobb is not a difference maker, no, but he would be 1 of our top 3 starters.

#23 notoriousgod71

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 03:40 PM

 

There are at 105m payroll already. I think that probably takes Arrieta, Lynn and Cobb out. They might be able to push to 115 or even 120 (but they'll sell off really quick if they aren't in it to save the Pohlads some money). I think realistically we're going to get someone like Jaime Garcia or maybe a trade for Odorizzi.

 

This really shouldn't be surprising. Pohlads took Falvey from Cleveland and they built their teams through FA and drafts. We aren't going to be a big payroll team. Levine and Falvey are going to be following the Ryan model and we just hope that they do it even better.

 

Since Ryan obviously perfected his own model are we to assume the absolute pinnacle of this model is winning a weak division only and quickly bowing out of the playoffs?


#24 notoriousgod71

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 03:41 PM

 

 

On the other hand, Kepler is part of the chemistry of this team, and he could make a jump in how he hits lefties this year. As for Cobb, I just see him as the next best FA to Darvish. Lynn would not be a fit here except maybe a short 1-2 year deal and Arrieta is toast. Cobb is not a difference maker, no, but he would be 1 of our top 3 starters.

 

Bartolo would be a top three starter on this roster.

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#25 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 03:43 PM

Bartolo would be a top three starter on this roster.

That is probably true, as a matter of fact. And Bartolo Colon signed a minor league deal for 2018.

#26 Platoon

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 03:45 PM

I never want to hear the Twins say they are in on a player in free agency until after they sign them cause they are full of crap till they do. They will never go for it.
I was giving Lavine and Falvey rhe benefit of the doubt but today we can see they are Ryan 2.0 with some stats but no spine.

I am somewhat sympathetic to this opinion, but maybe not as harsh on Falvine. They will next likely read from their 3x5 card. The one that says how JP will let them spend anything they wish to improve the club. This is a Pohlad enterprise. There ain't gonna be no cash folks. That said I would take a run at Archer. While I was always and am a Kepler fan, none of the position players are worth anything in reality without pitching. I would rather miss Kepler than see a whole roster wasted trying to out slug the entire league.
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#27 FlauerPauer

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 03:45 PM

I'd probably make a push Archer hoping that he turns into a stud with an improved defense behind him and (hopefully) better run support. If the Twins front believe he is going to be more valuable over the next four years than Kepler will then pull the trigger. I agree that it is easier to replace position players than it is to obtain or develop starting pitching. I'm a Kepler believer, but you have to give up something to get something. 

 

I do think the roster looks better with Archer on it than Kepler on it.I also think that in four years looking back at how Archer and Darvish perform, we, as fans, won't be too disappointed.

 

Offer the Rays Kepler, Gordon, their pick of Gonsalves/Romero, and their pick of a wildcard Thorpe/Graterol/Baddoo/Enlow/Palacios for Archer and maybe a wildcard from their system.If they pass, they pass and at that point we know the asking price is too high and probably not worth the plunge.

 

I'd look to sign Maybin or Gomez to a one year deal with a team option for 2019. No way they sign Martinez, although that would be a pretty nice addition to an already solid offense.

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#28 gunnarthor

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 03:46 PM

 

Since Ryan obviously perfected his own model are we to assume the absolute pinnacle of this model is winning a weak division only and quickly bowing out of the playoffs?

Since that didn't happen in the Ryan era either, I'd say the best case scenario is winning the world series.

 

We have an incredible nucleus of talent right now with some decent AA/AAA depth behind it. Yeah, I'm bummed but I never expected ownership to step up. This team will win b/c of development and trades. We still might make a trade, who knows. But we aren't going to sign guys like Darvish. It's too expensive and too risky for the Twins.

 

It looks like the FO did a nice job of improving the bullpen and they probably aren't done yet with the rotation but it'll probably be a smaller move than we all are hoping for.

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#29 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 03:52 PM

I think I'm more upset by the terms... 6/126 was a lot lower than most of us expected, with most saying 5/125 was reasonable. That obviously wasn't on the table or Darvish would have taken it.

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#30 Dave The Dastardly

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 03:55 PM

 

I'd probably make a push Archer hoping that he turns into a stud with an improved defense behind him and (hopefully) better run support. If the Twins front believe he is going to be more valuable over the next four years than Kepler will then pull the trigger. I agree that it is easier to replace position players than it is to obtain or develop starting pitching. I'm a Kepler believer, but you have to give up something to get something. 

 

I do think the roster looks better with Archer on it than Kepler on it.I also think that in four years looking back at how Archer and Darvish perform, we, as fans, won't be too disappointed.

 

Offer the Rays Kepler, Gordon, their pick of Gonsalves/Romero, and their pick of a wildcard Thorpe/Graterol/Baddoo/Enlow/Palacios for Archer and maybe a wildcard from their system.If they pass, they pass and at that point we know the asking price is too high and probably not worth the plunge.

 

I'd look to sign Maybin or Gomez to a one year deal with a team option for 2019. No way they sign Martinez, although that would be a pretty nice addition to an already solid offense.

You want to throw in a plow, too?

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#31 Dave The Dastardly

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 04:00 PM

Now that we've been knocked out of the Darvish Derby, I hope we don't make a deal just to make a deal so the front office can claim a "win" in free agency. I'm thinking about a couple past Rule 5 moves here...

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#32 cmoss84

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 04:05 PM

 

I get that nobody really wanted to hand out that 6th year, I really do.

 

That said, it's a down market where the big spenders (Boston, NY, LA) weren't competing for Darvish. The Twins have a desperate need for a top of the rotation starter, and $21 M annually plus incentives seems like a very agreeable price. It feels like missed opportunity.

 

Heres to holding out hope for a trade.....  

Didn't the Dodgers offer a 6 year deal as well? It sounds like (who knows if it's true) we were one of a handful of teams that offered $100 million + contracts. I don't see how people are upset with that. He chose the Cubs over us and those other teams. I don't fault our FO and I don't fault Darvish for going the Cubs. Why wouldn't you want to? 

That being said, we better get on it and sign a FA pitcher or two, or this is going to be a tough year. 

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#33 mikelink45

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 04:05 PM

If you havefollowed my posts (rants) I am not unhappy.Good luck Cubs.I do not know about the other pitchers - of course on an early posting I said why Garcia is an absolutely nooooooo for me.One good year - 2015, lets go young.See what our minor league pitchers can do and look at 2019 if they cannot perform.  

 

Lynn or Cobb for one or two years is okay, not my choice, Archer is preferred, but make sure we can afford him and trading Kepler is okay.  

 

The best thing is, I do not have to read anymore Darvish essays.He did not want us and I did not want him.  

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#34 rghrbek

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 04:17 PM

Listen, I wanted the Twins to sign Darvish.  If we offered basically what the Cubs did, then I am happy.  Anything more, I think would have been irresponsible.  I think Darvish will be good, not great, for 3 to 4 years of that contract.  I am not going to be mad at the FO, for Darvish choosing the better club.

 

Lots of speculation about the twins now trying to make some trade with the D-backs or Rays on this site.  Call me skeptical.  I believe in our FO, but I also don't think they have the stones to trade our high end stuff and an MLB asset for a pitcher.  Most of our newly ranked upside is our young players, who are unproven for the most part.  If they can find someone willing to take those folks with a Kepler, I am good with that.

 

I just don't think it's reality.  I am disappointed but not mad.  If we get Cobb or Lynn, fine, just don't think we are going to get an archer or a Grenkie type player in a trade.

I hope Berrios will improve (which I think he will), and scrap heaps like Gibson can build off the month plus he had of quality pitching (which he won't).

 

I hope I am wrong on all accounts

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#35 Carole Keller

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 04:24 PM

 

 

The best thing is, I do not have to read anymore Darvish essays.He did not want us and I did not want him.  

There will still be Darvish threads to read (or ignore). Three so far today have been started ...

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#36 mudcat14

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 04:28 PM

I think it would be pointless for the Twins to spend millions in dollars or prospects for anyone who doesn't slot in as staff ace.I only see three possibilities to do that now.

 

Chris Archer - Would definitely cost Kepler and at least a couple high-value prospects.Not ideal.

 

Jake Arietta - Maybe for a high dollar 1-year deal to prove his value, but I think there's a reason the Cubs have barely spoken to him and gave his money to Darvish.

 

Zach Greinke - Owed $138.5milover the next four years, I think the Twins would have to commit to at least 100 of that but he could probably be had for a less than expected return.Maybe Gordon and a lesser prospect.

 

Otherwise they're probably better off taking a chance on someone like Tillman on the cheap and seeing what the new regime's changes to our pitching development operations can produce in year #2. 

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#37 bighat

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 04:28 PM

 

I’d rather look for really short-term deals and hope someone steps up.

 

If I know Twins baseball, that's what they're going to do.

 

Trevor Cahill

Andrew Cashner

Jaime Garcia

Ubaldo Jimenez

Wade Miley

Edinson Volquez

Anibal Sanchez

 

I'm 99% sure the Twins are gonna sign one of those guys. They've got "Twins 1-year deal" written all over them.

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#38 darin617

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 04:39 PM

Why hasn't anyone brought up making a trade with Houston for a starting pitcher? Once they traded for Gerrit Cole they have 7 starting pitchers on their team.

 

I would expect Charlie Morton & Collin McHugh would be available. Neither top tier but would not cost much in terms of prospects. As well Houston would be open to a trade to replenish prospects after making the Cole & Verlander trades.

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#39 jimmer

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 04:41 PM

Yeah, the Astros still have a very good farm system

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#40 Dantes929

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Posted 10 February 2018 - 04:47 PM

 

I suspect we’ll dumpster dive again in the hopes of finding a diamond in the rough. And in the meantime, we can always fall back on “there’s always next year”

There is some talent on this team and appears to be some near ready talent in the minors and lets not forget that we have the same team we did last year except hopefully a year better and with better bullpen talent.That is why I am not giving up on this year but I am ok with "there is always next year".Its what I love about baseball. Ifelt it even after 87 and 91. Its the baseball fan anthem.

 . As for Cobb, I just see him as the next best FA to Darvish. Lynn would not be a fit here except maybe a short 1-2 year deal and Arrieta is toast. Cobb is not a difference maker, no, but he would be 1 of our top 3 starters.

Being one of our top three starters probably would place him in the difference maker category. I said as soon as the year was over that if we could just get Cobb and a reliever and be done I would consider it a success so I still feel that way.The true odds were that we wouldn't get that much. Same team as last year with a better starter added, a better reliever added, and May and some young guys waiting in the wings.The big downer for me wasn't losing out on Darvish but losing Santana for 12 weeks. I will say for Darvish though that my first sights of what it would take to sign him was 175/5 so I maybe could have swallowed 150/6.Is it wrong for me to hope he is a bust in Chicago?

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