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Royce Lewis vs. 2017 Draftees Update Club

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#41 twinsfanstreif

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 03:18 AM

 

I don't recall Adell being in the conversation nationally either. But, there was a regular poster here that badly wanted the Twins to take him.

I recall reading about him and some talk about him on this board, I even think there was some talk about him being an outlier #1 money saving pick. He just seemed to be on the outside of the top 5 though. I remember liking him but not as much as the other guys


#42 Vanimal46

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 06:40 AM

McKay looks like a legit number two. You don't want that?

Lewis is not progressing like the rest, that is disappointing.


Nah but that's because I don't think he's a legit #2... I think him and Wright are both middle to back end of the rotation arms. I'd still prefer the potential upside of Gore, Greene, and Lewis at this point.
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#43 Mike Sixel

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 08:58 AM

Nah but that's because I don't think he's a legit #2... I think him and Wright are both middle to back end of the rotation arms. I'd still prefer the potential upside of Gore, Greene, and Lewis at this point.


If I could redraft, it would be Gore for sure. You need seven starters every year, you only need one shortstop. Not to mention RPs.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. Oh, and I have at least one blog post now......The table on my first blog post is now fixed. Sigh.


#44 Han Joelo

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 09:37 AM

I'm disappointed that Lewis has stalled a bit.  And Gore certainly looks good now, but I'm not ready to jump ship on Royce.  Pitching prospects...


#45 Mike Sixel

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 09:42 AM

I'm disappointed that Lewis has stalled a bit. And Gore certainly looks good now, but I'm not ready to jump ship on Royce. Pitching prospects...


Are the best way to get cheap pitching.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. Oh, and I have at least one blog post now......The table on my first blog post is now fixed. Sigh.


#46 TRex

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 10:56 AM

 

If I could redraft, it would be Gore for sure. You need seven starters every year, you only need one shortstop. Not to mention RPs.

Just so that we are comparing apples to apples...

 

Gore and Lewis signed for near-identical bonuses ($6.7 million). However, while Lewis was $1 million under slot, Gore was slightly above slot. Being able to go over-slot and match the highest signing bonus to date (Green, McKay and Wright signed later), indicates to me that it would have taken slot-money to sign Gore. With the extra money the Twins were also able to overpay for Blayne Enlow (slot $775k; signed for $2 million).

 

So, for me, the draft comparison is Gore vs. Lewis AND Enlow (or 80% of Enlow). While there is no way to dislike the Gore signing, I am still happy with the progress of Lewis and Enlow.


#47 Mike Sixel

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 11:28 AM

 

Just so that we are comparing apples to apples...

 

Gore and Lewis signed for near-identical bonuses ($6.7 million). However, while Lewis was $1 million under slot, Gore was slightly above slot. Being able to go over-slot and match the highest signing bonus to date (Green, McKay and Wright signed later), indicates to me that it would have taken slot-money to sign Gore. With the extra money the Twins were also able to overpay for Blayne Enlow (slot $775k; signed for $2 million).

 

So, for me, the draft comparison is Gore vs. Lewis AND Enlow (or 80% of Enlow). While there is no way to dislike the Gore signing, I am still happy with the progress of Lewis and Enlow.

 

IIRC, they could have paid slot, and signed Enlow, and not suffered any penalties other than maybe some money. No draft picks lost.

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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. Oh, and I have at least one blog post now......The table on my first blog post is now fixed. Sigh.


#48 Han Joelo

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 12:34 PM

 

Are the best way to get cheap pitching.

 

Like Tyler Jay?  Or Kohl Stewart?  Drafting the right pitching prospects might be the best way to get cheap pitching.  Analyzing those two in hindsight is its own little cottage industry here on this board.

 

But we're not even really into hindsight mode yet.  These guys are really young, and Gore has a lot of surgeries to avoid before I start to second guess this pick.

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#49 Mike Sixel

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 12:48 PM

 

Like Tyler Jay?  Or Kohl Stewart?  Drafting the right pitching prospects might be the best way to get cheap pitching.  Analyzing those two in hindsight is its own little cottage industry here on this board.

 

But we're not even really into hindsight mode yet.  These guys are really young, and Gore has a lot of surgeries to avoid before I start to second guess this pick.

 

Like Levi Michael, or others? We can play that game all day. Teams use 20 pitchers a year, you need a lot of pitching. If you won't draft it early, you need to be willing to trade prospects and sign free agents....or rely on late round picks and IFA.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. Oh, and I have at least one blog post now......The table on my first blog post is now fixed. Sigh.


#50 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 06:43 PM

IIRC, they could have paid slot, and signed Enlow, and not suffered any penalties other than maybe some money. No draft picks lost.


What if they didn't have ownerships permission to spend over their draft pool?

#51 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 05:31 AM

 

Like Levi Michael, or others? We can play that game all day. Teams use 20 pitchers a year, you need a lot of pitching. If you won't draft it early, you need to be willing to trade prospects and sign free agents....or rely on late round picks and IFA.

 

This is really a pointless game. I don't think anyone saying don't draft pitches or don't draft hitters, and it's really easy to make mistakes along the way. What is it, like 50% of first round picks ever amount to anything?So let's just kill this tangent.

 

The issue with that draft was (at least in my opinion) your top pick plus Enlow, Leach, and Rooker… all of whom the Twins coveted. Leach has been the only one in this group who hasn't really taken strides forward, though he hasn't been that bad either... just hasn't been that good. The book is clearly still out there, and will be for another 3-5 years most likely. Could they have gotten those 3 if they drafted Gore or McKay? I don't know. 

 

Personally, if I remember right, McKay was my top choice though I think Wright was up there too. I really didn't like the Lewis draft until they got Enlow as well. As others have pointed out, I'm not sure they get all 4 if they don't take Lewis... and like it or not, when it comes to those cheap pitching prospects, the more the merrier. 

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#52 spycake

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 07:36 AM

Just so that we are comparing apples to apples...

Gore and Lewis signed for near-identical bonuses ($6.7 million). However, while Lewis was $1 million under slot, Gore was slightly above slot. Being able to go over-slot and match the highest signing bonus to date (Green, McKay and Wright signed later), indicates to me that it would have taken slot-money to sign Gore. With the extra money the Twins were also able to overpay for Blayne Enlow (slot $775k; signed for $2 million).

So, for me, the draft comparison is Gore vs. Lewis AND Enlow (or 80% of Enlow). While there is no way to dislike the Gore signing, I am still happy with the progress of Lewis and Enlow.

Maybe. But it's also quite possible Gore accepts the same bonus amount to be the #1 overall pick too. I will quote an old post of mine on the subject: "since we had the top pick, we also had an ability to negotiate (in specifics) and commit early to a selection, a resource that no other team had. It appears we chose to spend that resource on Lewis, and it may have been as much of a factor in his quick signing as anything else."

And as Mike alluded to, the Twins would up with enough wiggle room that they could have paid slot money at #1, signed all of their other picks, and still not suffered any future draft penalties.

Edited by spycake, 11 July 2019 - 07:39 AM.


#53 spycake

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 07:56 AM

What if they didn't have ownerships permission to spend over their draft pool?


I get what you're saying, but we're not talking about a $300 mil FA contract or even a $150 mil MLB payroll here. The 5% overage and 75% tax for the 2017 Twins draft pool would have been about $1.2 mil total, or about 8.5% of our draft pool. If you believe that's the best course of action, in arguably your most important and cost-effective area of acquiring talent, and you can't get ownership to sign off on a $1.2 mil, +8.5% expense, I'd chalk that up as a failure of the front office anyway.

(Not saying that's what happened here at all, of course! Just theoretically.)
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#54 Mike Sixel

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 08:57 AM

What if they didn't have ownerships permission to spend over their draft pool?


I would be surprised. They spend more than that on one player in the draft and IFA. But sure, that's possible. Not the argument I was responding to, but sure.

To go further....
I'd rather have Gore than Lewis and Leach or Rooker or Enlow. I doubt others agree. And I'm not trying to convince anyone.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. Oh, and I have at least one blog post now......The table on my first blog post is now fixed. Sigh.


#55 Steve Lein

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 09:17 AM

 

What if they didn't have ownerships permission to spend over their draft pool?

 

 

I get what you're saying, but we're not talking about a $300 mil FA contract or even a $150 mil MLB payroll here. The 5% overage and 75% tax for the 2017 Twins draft pool would have been about $1.2 mil total, or about 8.5% of our draft pool. If you believe that's the best course of action, in arguably your most important and cost-effective area of acquiring talent, and you can't get ownership to sign off on a $1.2 mil, +8.5% expense, I'd chalk that up as a failure of the front office anyway.

(Not saying that's what happened here at all, of course! Just theoretically.)

 

Have had multiple of these conversations on Twitter the past few days, including with Doogie.

 

Impression from his responses I have got, was that the Twins do not have permission to spend over their draft pool. 

 

This is both ridiculous and disappointing to me. They could still spend 3rd round money and only incur tax penalties up to around $1MIL more total money spent. This is peanuts, and acquiring better talent in this way is what teams like the Twins need to exploit at every turn.

 

23 teams overspent their pool last year.

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Scouting Report: Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 45, Speed: 45. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but will sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)


#56 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 10:24 AM

I get what you're saying, but we're not talking about a $300 mil FA contract or even a $150 mil MLB payroll here. The 5% overage and 75% tax for the 2017 Twins draft pool would have been about $1.2 mil total, or about 8.5% of our draft pool. If you believe that's the best course of action, in arguably your most important and cost-effective area of acquiring talent, and you can't get ownership to sign off on a $1.2 mil, +8.5% expense, I'd chalk that up as a failure of the front office anyway.

(Not saying that's what happened here at all, of course! Just theoretically.)


How is that a failure of the front office? They are beholden to ownership, they don't get to just do as they please.

#57 spycake

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 10:50 AM

How is that a failure of the front office? They are beholden to ownership, they don't get to just do as they please.


They are also beholden to players in the FA market, but if a GM can't ever convince a decent FA to sign, I think that's a bit of a mark against the GM.

I expect my GM to have some ability to persuade. They won't convince every FA, or fleece every other GM in trade, or get $200 mil to spend on a FA. But procuring an extra $1.2 mil / 8.5% to execute their preferred draft strategy (one apparently done by 23 other teams?) seems like a reasonable baseline expectation for a GM's persuasive abilities.

Again, this is hypothetical. It is quite possible/probable the 2017 Twins preferred Lewis anyway.

#58 birdwatcher

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 11:01 AM

 

If I could redraft, it would be Gore for sure. You need seven starters every year, you only need one shortstop. Not to mention RPs.

 

 

As I said prior to the draft, I'd be surprised if, over the full course of their careers, two out of the four pitching candidates would provide more cumulative than WAR than Lewis. The other two would either underperform or wash out due to ijury, and that there was no way of knowing which. Therefore, it still feels like a good judgment call to me. And no, the first round of the Rule 4 draft is not the only way to acquire top rotation talent. The facts just don't this opinion, although it's also historically proven that in every draft, there are some great bets when you pick first.;)


#59 Mike Sixel

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Posted 11 July 2019 - 11:11 AM

As I said prior to the draft, I'd be surprised if, over the full course of their careers, two out of the four pitching candidates would provide more cumulative than WAR than Lewis. The other two would either underperform or wash out due to ijury, and that there was no way of knowing which. Therefore, it still feels like a good judgment call to me. And no, the first round of the Rule 4 draft is not the only way to acquire top rotation talent. The facts just don't this opinion, although it's also historically proven that in every draft, there are some great bets when you pick first. ;)


I never said it was the only way. Not once. Never even implied it.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. Oh, and I have at least one blog post now......The table on my first blog post is now fixed. Sigh.


#60 AlwaysinModeration

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Posted 12 July 2019 - 03:20 AM

I get what you're saying, but we're not talking about a $300 mil FA contract or even a $150 mil MLB payroll here. The 5% overage and 75% tax for the 2017 Twins draft pool would have been about $1.2 mil total, or about 8.5% of our draft pool. If you believe that's the best course of action, in arguably your most important and cost-effective area of acquiring talent, and you can't get ownership to sign off on a $1.2 mil, +8.5% expense, I'd chalk that up as a failure of the front office anyway.

(Not saying that's what happened here at all, of course! Just theoretically.)


Agreed that they should be willing to spend that $1.2mm overage. What’s strange to me about it is that, let’s say, they had a slightly higher pick, or an extra comp pick, totaling $1.2mm. I can’t imagine them having any problem spending that amount. That overage should just be considered a part of their pool, in my opinion.
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