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What is the end game?

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#41 Shane Wahl

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 01:43 PM

Some of this has to be about the number of years these players want, and not the dollar amount. Teams are going to be smarter about this.

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#42 ewen21

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 01:59 PM

 

I think Darvish deal is holding everything else back. 

DARVISH is to blame for that.

 

Last year he was:

20th in WAR among pitchers

17th in WHIP

35th in ERA

 

In 2016:

54th in WAR among pitchers
19th in WHIP
36th in ERA

 

2015:

Injured reserve

 

2014:

38th in WAR among pitchers
74th in WHIP
34th in ERA

 

Honestly.The guy is not that good.

Yet here he is holding out for a contract he in no way has earned.

 

A player like Darvish makes me side with the owners.I can understand trying to get the most money you can for yourself, but this guy is delusional.It isn't like he has established a trademark of consistency.He is heading toward his declining years, too.He should be absolutely thrilled to get anything over 100 million.

 

I think he is greedy even by baseball players standards.

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#43 ewen21

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 02:09 PM

The owners take the risks and the players just play the game.They get compensated for very nicely for it being employees.They make guaranteed money like no other.Average baseball salaries have increased by over 20,000% since the first collective bargaining agreement in 1968.

https://www.forbes.c...8/#1d7d48403e48

 

THis site is way too sympathetic toward the players, in my opinion.There is no such career in the world that sustains just a ridiculous upward trend in salaries for that many years.A correction is happening.Why is this so hard for the players to grasp?  

 

 

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#44 jimmer

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 02:26 PM

I think the players and their agents have greatly misread todays market for players. There are supposedly huge deals being turned down. Players are supposedly getting big offers just not as big as they THINK they should be getting. I am guessing too many players are looking at old school numbers and trying to apply those to ehat they should get paid while teams are beung analytical. They all wish Dave Stewart would come back.

Edited by jimmer, 07 February 2018 - 02:35 PM.

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#45 Mike Sixel

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 02:29 PM

What risks, exactly, are owners taking? In a "normal" business, there is downside risk in your investment. NO SPORTS TEAM EVER has been sold for an RoR that was bad/low. The owners are taking pretty much no risk at all. 

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One of the best opening day rosters in years. Now go get 'em.


#46 jimmer

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 02:33 PM

To no ones surprise, Loria will not be sharing any profits from the sale of the Marlins with the county that homed them. He has found loopholes to the provision that he was supposedly to share a chunk of the profits if he ever sold the team.

#47 Aaron Cross

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 02:48 PM

Couldn’t agree more Ewen. Nice to see owners standing up to the insanity. If the union calls that collusion so be it.
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#48 nicksaviking

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 02:49 PM

I don't think there's any collusion. I think the bad teams have realized that a 75 win season doesn't do their bottom line any better than a 65 win season but due to draft picks, payroll flexibility and a lack of long term contracts, a 65 win season is a much quicker path to contention as counter-intuitive as it might sound.

 

Additionally, I think the smart front offices are realizing that the abilities between an expensive veteran and a cheap young player are too often negligible. With all the technological innovations and advances made throughout the game, the minor leaguers are much more prepared for the majors than they were two decades ago.

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#49 Oldgoat_MN

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 02:53 PM

 

To no ones surprise, Loria will not be sharing any profits from the sale of the Marlins with the county that homed them. He has found loopholes to the provision that he was supposedly to share a chunk of the profits if he ever sold the team.

Exactly. Alas...

Don't believe everything you read on the Internet just because it has a name or a photo you recognize.

- Abraham Lincoln


#50 SF Twins Fan

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 03:04 PM

https://www.mlbtrade...sh-arrieta.html

 

Updates on where the top FA's are at.

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#51 laloesch

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 03:06 PM

 

The owners take the risks and the players just play the game.They get compensated for very nicely for it being employees.They make guaranteed money like no other.Average baseball salaries have increased by over 20,000% since the first collective bargaining agreement in 1968.

https://www.forbes.c...8/#1d7d48403e48

 

THis site is way too sympathetic toward the players, in my opinion.There is no such career in the world that sustains just a ridiculous upward trend in salaries for that many years.A correction is happening.Why is this so hard for the players to grasp?  

 

And the fans.I for one would like to not have my cable bill increase 15-20% every year, because most of that money is going to sports teams that i have no control or say of.Just wait till internet TV really takes off like sling (it's already started); all these sweet heart deals will start to go away and then the proverbial you know what will hit the fan. 

Edited by laloesch, 07 February 2018 - 03:09 PM.

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#52 Mike Sixel

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 03:23 PM

 

And the fans.I for one would like to not have my cable bill increase 15-20% every year, because most of that money is going to sports teams that i have no control or say of.Just wait till internet TV really takes off like sling (it's already started); all these sweet heart deals will start to go away and then the proverbial you know what will hit the fan. 

Fox just agreed to increase the payment for Thursday night football by nearly 20%.......so, not looking like it is dying any time soon.

 

 

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One of the best opening day rosters in years. Now go get 'em.


#53 Sconnie

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 03:31 PM

There must be some level of collusion on both the players and the owners side. Someone would've blinked by now.

 

That being said, I think the greatest influence on the owners side

1) teams on the winning trend are trying to beat the luxury tax ahead of what is expected to be a banner off season next year for free agents

2) teams on the losing trend are restocking the prospect list and waiting for an uptrend to make a move

 

On the players side

1) High end players are trying to wait out the market that may not come to them

2) next tier are waiting out the first tier as the market setters

3) winning trend teams are filling their gaps with the third tier of players that aren't waiting out the market.

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#54 Vanimal46

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 03:31 PM

 

I don't think there's any collusion. I think the bad teams have realized that a 75 win season doesn't do their bottom line any better than a 65 win season but due to draft picks, payroll flexibility and a lack of long term contracts, a 65 win season is a much quicker path to contention as counter-intuitive as it might sound.

 

Additionally, I think the smart front offices are realizing that the abilities between an expensive veteran and a cheap young player are too often negligible. With all the technological innovations and advances made throughout the game, the minor leaguers are much more prepared for the majors than they were two decades ago.

 

Agreed with all of this. And the fact that it's never been easier for an MLB owner to make boatloads of money without worrying about winning. This nugget came from an MLBTradeRumors post about Miami potentially being in trouble not using their revenues shared from MLB.

 

 

Jackson reports that the Marlins are set to receive roughly $60MM in revenue sharing profits this season and could take home as much as $160MM from the league between that sum, the $50MM BAMTech payout that all 30 clubs are receiving and the national television contract.

 

The Marlins may take home $160MM in profit without even touching the field this year. It's not like they have to win any games to make a good profit. Compared to years past where the thought was winning games makes you more money. 

 

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#55 gunnarthor

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 03:44 PM

I think the owners 'tank to win' narrative is overstated. To the extent that they needed to, the Cubs, especially, but even the Astros spent a lot of money. I think owners have seen how the Astros and Marlins have tanked and still brought in record profits when they were losing 100 games and had zero ratings. The tank to win thing just gives them cover.

 

If half the teams in the league are trying to lose to get the #1 pick and more international pool money, it's not going to be a workable solution.

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#56 Oxtung

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 03:44 PM

 

The owners take the risks and the players just play the game.They get compensated for very nicely for it being employees.They make guaranteed money like no other.Average baseball salaries have increased by over 20,000% since the first collective bargaining agreement in 1968.

https://www.forbes.c...8/#1d7d48403e48

 

THis site is way too sympathetic toward the players, in my opinion.There is no such career in the world that sustains just a ridiculous upward trend in salaries for that many years.A correction is happening.Why is this so hard for the players to grasp?  

 

 

As ridiculous as that sounds, since 2002 team revenues have risen at an even faster rate.As crazy as you think the players contracts are, the amount the teams are bringing in is more obscene.That doesn't even take into account the amount that teams have been valued at.....

 

 

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#57 ewen21

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 03:51 PM

Athletes, baseball players in particular, have had pay increases that have gone through the troposphere.This is not some boom industry that produces something for the benefit of humankind.This is entertainment.The owners are giving the players some necessary pushback.For anyone who wants to counter with, "but the owners....." save it.I have no interest in defending them.Fact is, this insanity has to stop.If it did not then by 2025 we'd have players making 100,000,000 a year.The only thing moving that fast is the National Debt.These contracts are getting more and more ridiculous.Lorenzo Cain is a nice player, but going into his 32 year old season he is given 75 million in guaranteed money.Absolute insanity if you ask me.

 

Again.Baseball is entertainment. These men play a child's game.We all love it, but the players are getting to be so cushioned from reality it is hard to take.Watching baseball for me has been a passion for almost 40 years.One might say an addiction.If these players begin to counter with some kind of sit-out thing I don't know if I can stand it.I walked away for several years after the last strike and hockey was my #1 sport.

 

These players need to read the fan base.It costs so much more to attend a ballgame now and as Laloesch pointed out, cable companies continue to raise rates largely because these sports franchises play with Monopoly money and the players are more than just complicit in this.I would love to see a hard salary cap in baseball.I would love to see owners be able to take back money for the team from underperforming players.As it is, the system is set up where players have been able to hold up the owners with ridiculous guaranteed contracts that almost always contain several years where the team takes it on the chin at the end,

 

This is going to be like the housing market, I hope.I want to see the players eat some humble pie

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#58 twinssporto

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 04:15 PM

This has been a fascinating off-season to watch.  I hope Harvard Business School or some other institution does a case study on this whole topic.  From a purely business perspective you have a number of things going on: BTW, I am not taking a position for owners or players...

 

1. I think the GM's have gotten a lot smarter when analyzing these FA contracts.  I don't know the systems, metrics or the logarithms they are using but they may have wised up when it comes to the length of the contracts they extend to 30+ year olds.  It doesn't look like a dollar-per-year issue but a length of time issue. 

 

2. The payroll tax has really come into play this year.  When two big market teams like the Yankees and Dodgers are trying to get under that limit they will not be aggressive and won't commit the dollars to these FA's (thus driving down the value of the free-agents services). Clark poorly negotiated this item and will get hammered for it by the Players Union. Just wait and see...

 

3. Nothing and I mean nothing ever grows all the way to the sky.  Stocks, businesses, incomes, home values, etc.  Free agency is a great mechanism for players to really see what the market can bear when it comes to salaries and compensation.  However, for some of these guys now and into the future the always rising pay may have just leveled off or even dropped.  That's economics 101.  

 

4.  Point number #3 above is valid BARRING ANY OWNER COLLUSION.  I bolded that statement because its one of the biggest reasons people give when asked why the big names haven't been signed yet. I am somewhat skeptical about collusion taking place with the owners for a number of reasons:  First it is very illegal (I know people break laws everyday) but this takes some considerable logistics and planning on their part. Secondly, the owners got hammered by this back in 1987.  It would boggle my mind if they did that (not saying it can't) but unlikely.  Is it collusion when one free-agent already signed for $80mm? Is it collusion when Yu Darvish is getting $100 million dollar offers and turning them down because he wants $150 million dollars?  I can't answer that but its a hard argument to make.

 

Not sure where all of this is headed but it's interesting to watch.  As a Twins fan I'm glad the Yankees and Dodgers are holding back.  I'd like to see us get a great FA this year and at a good price!

Edited by twinssporto, 07 February 2018 - 04:16 PM.

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On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.


#59 gunnarthor

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 04:15 PM

I guess I don't get your anger. Sports is a billion dollar industry. It's not a game. It's very hard work. I'd rather that the players get paid more and owners get paid less. That's basically the only two options. Ticket prices aren't going down. Fans aren't going to get a discount. The game is incredibly popular now and that's because the players, not the owners, have made it so. Why on earth anyone would root for the owners to make more money is beyond me. 

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#60 Oxtung

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 04:37 PM

 

I guess I don't get your anger. Sports is a billion dollar industry. It's not a game. It's very hard work. I'd rather that the players get paid more and owners get paid less. That's basically the only two options. Ticket prices aren't going down. Fans aren't going to get a discount. The game is incredibly popular now and that's because the players, not the owners, have made it so. Why on earth anyone would root for the owners to make more money is beyond me. 

 

How many times can you like a post? Is there a button for love? Is it legal to marry this post?:wub:  

Edited by Oxtung, 07 February 2018 - 04:37 PM.

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