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Article: No Such Thing as Too Much Pitching, Right?

ervin santana jose berrios kyle gibson adalberto mejia aaron slegers
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#21 Puckett34

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 10:52 AM

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#22 spycake

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 11:19 AM

 

I wish I knew how they project ERAs.I've looked, but I haven't been able to find any Steamer projections for 2017.It would be interesting to see what he projected for other pitchers in 2017.I just think it's weird that he projects Cobb's and Lynn's ERAs up a point from 2017.They're both another year past TJ surgery, and they both threw really well last year.

FIP predicts future ERA better than ERA itself. Lynn and Cobb both had worse FIPs than ERAs last year (Lynn especially so).


#23 Twodogs

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 11:29 AM

Getting a couple of lesser pitchers means the Twins can sign them to 1 year deals, that works perfectly in case a couple of these young guys pans out, if they don't then they will need to re-visit this next year also.

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#24 spycake

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 11:40 AM

 

Getting a couple of lesser pitchers means the Twins can sign them to 1 year deals, that works perfectly in case a couple of these young guys pans out, if they don't then they will need to re-visit this next year also.

You're not likely to know with any confidence whether these "young guys" will pan out as MLB starters 12 months from now -- they currently have virtually zero experience above AA (Gonsalves 5 games at AAA, Jorge 3, and Romero/Littell/Thorpe all with zero). 2018 is almost certainly about AAA refinement and getting their feet wet in MLB. Best case, next winter they might be in a spot like Mejia this offseason -- able to compete for an open job, ready to come up as a reinforcement if needed, but not someone to whom you want to hand a spot.

 

The timing is perfect for the Twins to make a multi-year SP commitment, if that's what it takes to get the best SP on the market. There is a clear and obvious need today, likely one for 2019 as well given the inexperience of the prospects, and a couple current vets coming off the books before 2020 too (Ervin and Gibson, if he makes it that far).

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#25 Darius

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 11:54 AM

So they could've shut him down before the playoff game to have surgery, had a better chance of winning the game, AND got him back at the start of the '18 season.

Sounds like a couple of missed opportunities there.

#26 mikelink45

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 12:46 PM

 

Out of curiosity, why are you so down on Garcia? He's not a guy I'd offer a long term contract to, but I'll gladly take him on a one year deal. Take the projections with a grain of salt, but here's how Garcia looks compared to Lynn and Cobb. 

 

GARCIA:
B-Ref - 155 IP - 4.35 ERA - 7.7 K/9 - 3.3 BB/9 

Steamer - 168 IP - 4.24 ERA - 7.3 K/9 - 3.25 BB/9 - 2.3 fWAR

 

LYNN:
B-Ref - 153 IP - 3.65 ERA - 7.9 K/9 - 3.7 BB/9 

Steamer - 150 IP - 4.66 ERA - 7.6 K/9 - 3.65 BB/9 - 1.3 fWAR

 

COBB:
B-Ref - 152 IP - 4.20 ERA - 7.1 K/9 - 2.7 BB/9 

Steamer - 133 IP - 4.43 ERA - 6.77 K/9 - 2.53 BB/9 - 1.7 fWAR

 

I wish B-Ref had projected bWAR totals but I didn't see it. Overall from these projections they all profile to make the same kind of impact. 

 

It may be the right move to sign Garcia for 1 year instead of locking up Cobb or Lynn for 4 years a piece. 

I see him as a #6 or 7 rotation pitcher - just looking at how he does with good players (Somehow Correa is an exception) here is how the Astros batted against him - http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/29185/jaime-garcia I think a 1.41 Whip is disasterous - https://www.rotowire...lit.htm?id=9600 2015 was where he got a good reputation, but before and after his stats make him a poor pitcher - a poor choice to give up either a good contract or good propects - https://www.baseball...garcija02.shtmlLook at his RA9 numbers for every year but 2015  

 

We have numerous pitchers on the list of Twin controlled players who can or should match his success, so why go outside for what we already have? http://www.hallofsta...layer/garcija02 Look at his WAR - take out 2015 and he is not even a replacement pitcher.Or look at his comps - it is not a list of who's who =but rather a list of who is that.

 

Don't mean to rant, but sometimes we try to hard to get someone from the outside to make us better, but if they do not have talent to change things we only set back those we already have. 

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#27 bcs4

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 12:53 PM

 

FIP predicts future ERA better than ERA itself. Lynn and Cobb both had worse FIPs than ERAs last year (Lynn especially so).

I'm not sure it does when comparing Lynn and Darvish, here's why.  

 

Darvish had more SOs than Lynn, and that's a big factor in FIP, but these aren't: 

 

BABIP: Darvish .284, Lynn .248, and both teams had identical FPs. I think most of us would agree that some pitchers are easier to field, and I think this is a big enough difference to say it's a factor here.

 

Wild Pitches Darvish 12, Lynn 2

 

SB Darvish 20, Lynn 4. You could say that the catcher determines the SB numbers too, except for that Darvish accounted for 30% of all Rangers SBs (pre all star because Darvish went to the Dodgers) while Lynn accounted for 7% of St Louis'.

 

I think it would be more than fair to say FIP doesn't account for a lot of Darvish's shortcomings.In this case I don't think FIP is a better indicator, and I'm not saying ERA is perfect, but I don't think the FIP difference is justified in this case.

Edited by bcs4, 07 February 2018 - 12:55 PM.

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#28 Thrylos

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 12:55 PM

This all has to be seen within the context of the 40-man roster that is full right now.And the first name off that roster if/when the Twins add a free agent pitcher is likely Slegers (or Enns), so you adding and losing.

 

That's why, if the Twins are going after a second pitcher (which they should, because in order to compete in the post-season, they need 2 SP better than Berrios and now they have zero,) it has to be via a trade.

 

Other than Darvish, I don't think that any of the FA SP are worth it, not only because of the loss of the draft pick for the other top 3, but because I think that they will be at the Gibson level at the AL...

 

Absolutely no to bottom feeding because Gonsalves, Romero, Littel, Enns, & Co could provide similar or better results than Vargas or Garcia and hold the last spot or two until May and Santana are ready in May.

 

This team has to decide whether it will be a contender in 2018 or 2019.If they want to be a contender in 2018 they need 2 starters.In 2019, they will effectively replace Santana with Pineda, May, Berrios, Mejia would be a year more seasoned, and Gonsalves, Romero, Littel would be closer.

They just need a top of the rotation pitcher (or 2) depending on how they see 2018.

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#29 spycake

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 01:24 PM

BABIP: Darvish .284, Lynn .248, and both teams had identical FPs. I think most of us would agree that some pitchers are easier to field, and I think this is a big enough difference to say it's a factor here.

Career BABIP: Darvish .292, Lynn .297. League average has been between .293-.298 since 2012.

Lynn was a .244 BABIP pitcher last year in much the same way Danny Santana was a .405 BABIP hitter in his rookie season. Even to the extent that it might reflect skill, for that season, the players in question have shown no ability to maintain that level of skill over a larger sample.

Edited by spycake, 07 February 2018 - 02:03 PM.

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#30 spycake

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 01:34 PM

 

This all has to be seen within the context of the 40-man roster that is full right now.And the first name off that roster if/when the Twins add a free agent pitcher is likely Slegers (or Enns), so you adding and losing.

One 40-man spot opens up on Feb. 13, with Pineda moving to the 60-day DL. So any signing could be announced now, and become official on Feb. 13 with no one lost.

 

Rule 5 pick Kinley is the other obvious candidate for removal, if they needed an additional spot. But I doubt they sign two MLB contracts right now (at least one would probably be a MILB deal with an early opt out).

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#31 bcs4

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 02:43 PM

 

You are diving in deep here, my friend.

 

Career BABIP: Darvish .292, Lynn .297.League average has been between .293-.298 since 2012.

 

Lynn was a .244 BABIP pitcher last year in much the same way Danny Santana was a .405 BABIP hitter in his rookie season.

 

 

Well, the only way to figure out why something doesn't make sense is to do a little digging.The only defense I've ever seen you use is to say something doesn't apply (without much support, and in a flippant way) or just to say that X stat is better than Y stat because that's what Statcast/Steamer or Teams use to determine value. I'm pretty sure that MLB teams are much more sophisticated than Steamer is, but I realize there are probably some really dumb GMs out there.

 

I think that the Steamer gang would probably tell you that they aren't very good, relatively speaking, at accurately predicting an individual player's numbers. I've seen no comparisons of Steamer to the 2016 or 2017 projections that they made other than they were generally better than the other 7 or 8 prognosticators, however they don't give the method they used to rank them. For instance, what percentage of their WAR projections are within 25% of the actual WAR? 

 

A somewhat sideways BAPIP IS considered in FIP. FIP is an attempt to eliminate defensive players from the picture, but it does it by weighing things that may or may not do what it tries to do. To assume that every batted ball is hit in the same way is not really a great way to do it.I freely admit that it would be a very hard thing to do, but because it's hard to do, and SOs are very heavily weighted, it doesn't really reflect what makes a pitcher effective. It would be a better stat if it made an allowance for the deviation from the player's BAPIP to the league BAPIP, because that WOULD give pitchers credit for being more fieldable.

 

Your example of an average from career BAPIP doesn't work because it doesn't look like FIP considers more than the single past year. So, apples to apples, only the single year BAPIP should be used to compare Darvish and Lynn to the projected FIP that was being discussed My points were to show why FIP wasn't a good measure for these two pitchers in this current year. Once again I'd bet Steamer would agree, because so many of Darvish's singles turn into doubles, and doubles to triples because Darvish can't hold people on base and he throws a ton of wild pitches.  

 

One other thing, I think Santana did have a BAPIP that was pretty high as a rookie. How do you suppose his WAR from that year looked compared to the following year's projection?

 

Maybe you could take some time to give us your take on why Darvish's ERA was 15% higher than Lynn's. Dig in to the stats a bit. It might help us understand why Darvish is clearly more productive than Lynn. 

 

 


#32 NewClearHarley

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 03:13 PM

 

Ialso feel the Twins need to sign 1 top flight starter and a flyer or two.Things may work out, but squadering the chance is not good.

I still would try to do it on the cheaper side - sign Cobb, and give Tillman a 1-year prove it contract - like 1-6 or 1-7, with perhaps a club option for like 10 the following year. Then I would look to trade for Archer or as has been suggested on here Teheran.

 

This would give the team a rotation as follows:

 

Archer/Teheran

Santana

Berrios

Cobb

Gibson

 

with proven backup options ready to fill gaps/injuries:

​Tillman

Mejia

 

along with injury recovery options:

 

Pineda

May

Hughes

Duffey

 

and finally the rookie crop:

 

Slagers

Enns

Gonsalves

Romero

Jorge 

et al

 

I'm assuming a trade for Teheran or Archer would cost at least Gordon and perhaps one of those rookie SPs. Considering how our rotation would shake out for the next few years (with contracts expiring) - I'd do it in a heartbeat. 

 

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#33 Mike Sixel

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 03:36 PM

 

I still would try to do it on the cheaper side - sign Cobb, and give Tillman a 1-year prove it contract - like 1-6 or 1-7, with perhaps a club option for like 10 the following year. Then I would look to trade for Archer or as has been suggested on here Teheran.

 

This would give the team a rotation as follows:

 

Archer/Teheran

Santana

Berrios

Cobb

Gibson

 

with proven backup options ready to fill gaps/injuries:

​Tillman

Mejia

 

along with injury recovery options:

 

Pineda

May

Hughes

Duffey

 

and finally the rookie crop:

 

Slagers

Enns

Gonsalves

Romero

Jorge 

et al

 

I'm assuming a trade for Teheran or Archer would cost at least Gordon and perhaps one of those rookie SPs. Considering how our rotation would shake out for the next few years (with contracts expiring) - I'd do it in a heartbeat. 

 

Archer would require about 2x that much value. If it is Gordon, you also need 2 SP minor league players and a guy like Kiriloff, maybe Kepler......

 

Or, Lewis and 2-3 other minor league players.

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#34 spycake

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 03:46 PM

Your example of an average from career BAPIP doesn't work because it doesn't look like FIP considers more than the single past year. So, apples to apples, only the single year BAPIP should be used to compare Darvish and Lynn to the projected FIP that was being discussed


FIP and BABIP are just stats which can be calculated on a career, season, or even a per game basis. They get more useful/predictive with a larger sample. They are not projections themselves. Projections like Steamer incorporate multiple years of BABIP and FIP (and/or its components).

#35 NewClearHarley

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 03:47 PM

I'd be willing to deal Kepler or Kiriloff along with Gordon and a MiLB SP prospect in a deal for Archer - but if we can get Teheran for something a little less I'd be fine with that too. I wouldn't deal Lewis in a deal for either of them.

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#36 Minfidel

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 04:01 PM

Is there no longer any thought being given to trading for Chris Archer? Seems the ideal time to plug him in for Santana and then have an even stronger rota when Ervin comes back. The cost will be high, but do any of the Twins pitching prospects project to be better than Archer when they eventually get to the majors? 

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#37 Oxtung

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 04:26 PM

 

Well, the only way to figure out why something doesn't make sense is to do a little digging.The only defense I've ever seen you use is to say something doesn't apply (without much support, and in a flippant way) or just to say that X stat is better than Y stat because that's what Statcast/Steamer or Teams use to determine value. I'm pretty sure that MLB teams are much more sophisticated than Steamer is, but I realize there are probably some really dumb GMs out there.

 

I think that the Steamer gang would probably tell you that they aren't very good, relatively speaking, at accurately predicting an individual player's numbers. I've seen no comparisons of Steamer to the 2016 or 2017 projections that they made other than they were generally better than the other 7 or 8 prognosticators, however they don't give the method they used to rank them. For instance, what percentage of their WAR projections are within 25% of the actual WAR? 

 

A somewhat sideways BAPIP IS considered in FIP. FIP is an attempt to eliminate defensive players from the picture, but it does it by weighing things that may or may not do what it tries to do. To assume that every batted ball is hit in the same way is not really a great way to do it.I freely admit that it would be a very hard thing to do, but because it's hard to do, and SOs are very heavily weighted, it doesn't really reflect what makes a pitcher effective. It would be a better stat if it made an allowance for the deviation from the player's BAPIP to the league BAPIP, because that WOULD give pitchers credit for being more fieldable.

 

Your example of an average from career BAPIP doesn't work because it doesn't look like FIP considers more than the single past year. So, apples to apples, only the single year BAPIP should be used to compare Darvish and Lynn to the projected FIP that was being discussed My points were to show why FIP wasn't a good measure for these two pitchers in this current year. Once again I'd bet Steamer would agree, because so many of Darvish's singles turn into doubles, and doubles to triples because Darvish can't hold people on base and he throws a ton of wild pitches.  

 

One other thing, I think Santana did have a BAPIP that was pretty high as a rookie. How do you suppose his WAR from that year looked compared to the following year's projection?

 

Maybe you could take some time to give us your take on why Darvish's ERA was 15% higher than Lynn's. Dig in to the stats a bit. It might help us understand why Darvish is clearly more productive than Lynn. 

 

 

If you're looking for a better analytic than FIP look at SIERA. It takes batted ball profiles into account (i.e. BABIP). It is an ERA emulator but it functions as an ERA predictor even better than FIP does. It too thinks Darvish is a significantly better pitcher than Lynn.

 

As for wild pitches, Darvish had 12 last season out of a total of 3054 pitches.Another way to state that once every 3 games he has a wild pitch. Seems likely that has a statistically insignificant impact on his performance.

 

On an unrelated note I'm excited for the new statcast data to be incorporated into the analytics. I would think knowing average exit velocities and launch angles could greatly enhance an ERA estimator/emulator.

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#38 NewClearHarley

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 05:21 PM

I am always a fan of building from within, but the Twins are truly well into the onset of their window to compete. With the rebuilt bullpen, the two remaining biggest holes for this team is a RH corner OF/1B bat and a true #1 SP. Although we obviously also need at least one more veteran SP as a contingency with question marks surrounding the position. We have the trade capital to land that #1 if an opposing team is in fact shopping one. We need to go on this, and then use our FA dollars to land that veteran lower-rotation veteran arm and that RH bat. We've already missed out on Cole, I hope we make every effort to land Archer because I doubt there are any other teams considering shopping a young controllable top-of-the-rotation type pitcher. 

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#39 bcs4

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 06:00 PM

 

FIP and BABIP are just stats which can be calculated on a career, season, or even a per game basis. They get more useful/predictive with a larger sample. They are not projections themselves. Projections like Steamer incorporate multiple years of BABIP and FIP (and/or its components).

 

The prior year's FIP is a projection, and the formula bears that out. I don't know how Steamer uses FIP, but his projection is pretty much Lynn's 2017 FIP with little or no correlation to previous years. I was pointing out that it's not a valid comparison between Darvish and Lynn.It's not, because it doesn't account for Darvish's SBs and WPs, and their affect on his earned runs is projectable. They will likely cost 7+ runs every year unless he improves dramatically.The only things that would make Darvish more valuable last year are more subjective than objective.


#40 bcs4

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Posted 07 February 2018 - 06:10 PM

 

If you're looking for a better analytic than FIP look at SIERA. It takes batted ball profiles into account (i.e. BABIP). It is an ERA emulator but it functions as an ERA predictor even better than FIP does. It too thinks Darvish is a significantly better pitcher than Lynn.

 

As for wild pitches, Darvish had 12 last season out of a total of 3054 pitches.Another way to state that once every 3 games he has a wild pitch. Seems likely that has a statistically insignificant impact on his performance.

 

On an unrelated note I'm excited for the new statcast data to be incorporated into the analytics. I would think knowing average exit velocities and launch angles could greatly enhance an ERA estimator/emulator.

 

Thanks for the info on SIERA, I'll take a look.

 

Each pitch doesn't tie to a runner advancing.WPs and SBs do.In addition to his WPs, he gave up 30% of the Rangers' stolen bases.Together, they make a significant impact on his ERA.It could easily be 15%.

 

 

 

 




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