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The Twins should sign Yu Darvish, regardless of price

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#221 spycake

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Posted 04 February 2018 - 02:46 PM

Adam Wainwright had TJ like Darvish has and the timeline is very similar. He had strong seasons at 31 and 32 and has been middle of the road since. Sabathia cratered at 32. John Lackey had TJ and is still going at 38, but he has not been a number one starter in almost ten years.


Wainwright basically had peak seasons at age 31 and 32. (And he's an August birthday like Darvish, so that means he actually turned 32 and 33 in those seasons :) )

John Lackey almost had a career best season at age 36 (also after TJ).

These guys still fit the general overall trend of being worse in their 30's than in their 20's, but that doesn't mean they were valueless. In fact, both proved worthy of the long-term deals they received around age 31.

Of course, Darvish is a different person, and his future hasn't happened yet, so Wainwright and Lackey are no guarantee of Darvish's future results. But in no way do they support your position either, that a long-term deal for Darvish should be avoided like the plague.

#222 Sconnie

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Posted 04 February 2018 - 04:46 PM

The Yankees are earnestly trying to stay under the luxury tax threshold. I live in NY state and heard this refrain on WFAN not long after I moved in July and it has been a theme. Then they signed Stanton.

I don't think the Yankees are going to go too far going for Darvish. This harkens back to the "bidding war" between the Red Sox and Yankees for Johan. There was no real bidding war. The difficulty in that case was trying to convince the Twins. Here Darvish has the veto power. I think Darvish and his people are being even more foolish than Bill Smith was during the Johan situation.

I think Darvish missed the boat. I think that if he is expecting/holding out for Strasburg money then he will be not only be sitting on the sidelines through the open of training camp (not a good look for him), but also losing out on money and years.

agreed, I think the Twins should wait it out.
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#223 ewen21

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Posted 04 February 2018 - 05:11 PM

 

Wainwright basically had peak seasons at age 31 and 32. (And he's an August birthday like Darvish, so that means he actually turned 32 and 33 in those seasons :) )

John Lackey almost had a career best season at age 36 (also after TJ).

These guys still fit the general overall trend of being worse in their 30's than in their 20's, but that doesn't mean they were valueless. In fact, both proved worthy of the long-term deals they received around age 31.

Of course, Darvish is a different person, and his future hasn't happened yet, so Wainwright and Lackey are no guarantee of Darvish's future results. But in no way do they support your position either, that a long-term deal for Darvish should be avoided like the plague.

Wainwright isn't anything near what he was and had TJ at about the same time in his life as Darvish.His career is far more impressive as well.Lackey is one of those rare cases of a guy who stays relevant in his mid to late 30s.

 

For the life of me, I do not understand the argument about "not knowing the future" when it comes to the age of a pitcher.CORRECT.I cannot see the future, nor can all the others who pasted up sabermetric projections.One thing I have on my side of the argument is the fact that age wins out and that there are very few pitchers who maintain their ability level past 32 years of age.It happens, but it is pretty uncommon.If you can't admit that or refuse to see it then that really isn't a ME thing.That's you trying to go "glass-half full" on this one.Hope is nice, but it doesn't work.I prefer to be more pragmatic

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#224 SQUIRREL

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Posted 04 February 2018 - 05:17 PM

I want to apologize for the lack of a space bar in the last two posts. Something with this new keyboard.

Use single spaces at the end of sentences instead of two and that will ‘fix’ the spacing issue.
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#225 ewen21

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Posted 04 February 2018 - 05:24 PM

 

I have no idea but they might be trying to adjust it and it's causing the hold up. All the GM's and Support staff are seeing what you are pointing out about the contracts and production. 

 

And as a result... the players and the agents are starting to speak up because they are sensing an adjustment. 

 

Ultimately tho... The CBA would have to be adjusted to make an adjustment. 

 

Full disclosure... I'm on the players side... they are not hurting for money so I'm not losing sleep but I am on the players side. 

 

For 6 years... Players are controllable. The players have no choice at all.

 

For the first 6 years... Lorenzo Cain was paid 21.5M. Based on his production over that time... you could say that he was very underpaid in comparison. 

 

When Cain reaches free agency he finally gets leverage. (Only for those who are good enough to survive the first 6 years). This is Lorenzo's time to use that leverage... play where he wants to play instead of what team drafted him and held him securely.  

 

The Problem players run into with the CBA is that they are controlled over their most productive years so once GM"s starting looking at the metrics... like you have. They start questioning the value of signing long contracts and when they refuse to offer them. We get long hold outs... we get players threatening to strike and agents starting to point fingers... because the players held up their end of the bargain... they allowed themselves to be underpaid (by industry standards) to wait for the pay day and now the teams are saying... hey wait a second... we don't want to pay you here either. 

 

You raise a very valid point... but as you can see... the system was designed for this very thing. 

 

I don't know who said it... but there is a quote that I absolutely love: 

 

"Your systems are perfectly designed to give you the results you are getting".

 

Brandon Moss was saying the same thing. http://www.nydailyne...ticle-1.3797095

Read the Moss article and he is dead right and the players are apparently simmering over the situation.My feeling on it is screw them.They get guaranteed money and they should be thrilled they have that.I have been a baseball fan since 1972 and I have stopped watching a couple of times.I love the sport and as a teacher I have all summer to get fully into it.If the players decide to band together and present some kind of statement against what is going on then I don't know how I will react.Life is not a given.I bought a home for 358,000 in 2005 and sold it for 285,000 earlier this year.These things happen.Do these players think they deserve to have salaries to increase as they have over the last 20 years FOREVER?Are they really that stupid?

 

This is most definitely a market correction and these players need to wise up and learn how to deal with it.It has been a long time coming and it is here now.I would not be surprised if Darvish is forced to settle for way WAY less sometime in April.Would not shock me at all.If you ask me, he and his agent are being ridiculous.I am not interested in him at all.


#226 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 04 February 2018 - 06:39 PM

Wainwright isn't anything near what he was and had TJ at about the same time in his life as Darvish. His career is far more impressive as well. Lackey is one of those rare cases of a guy who stays relevant in his mid to late 30s.

For the life of me, I do not understand the argument about "not knowing the future" when it comes to the age of a pitcher. CORRECT. I cannot see the future, nor can all the others who pasted up sabermetric projections. One thing I have on my side of the argument is the fact that age wins out and that there are very few pitchers who maintain their ability level past 32 years of age. It happens, but it is pretty uncommon. If you can't admit that or refuse to see it then that really isn't a ME thing. That's you trying to go "glass-half full" on this one. Hope is nice, but it doesn't work. I prefer to be more pragmatic


Perhaps that is why nobody is suggesting anything close to what he'd get on the open market if he were entering his prime? The terms being discussed are already discounted to reflect his expected decline.
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#227 Riverbrian

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Posted 04 February 2018 - 06:51 PM

 

Read the Moss article and he is dead right and the players are apparently simmering over the situation.My feeling on it is screw them.They get guaranteed money and they should be thrilled they have that.I have been a baseball fan since 1972 and I have stopped watching a couple of times.I love the sport and as a teacher I have all summer to get fully into it.If the players decide to band together and present some kind of statement against what is going on then I don't know how I will react.Life is not a given.I bought a home for 358,000 in 2005 and sold it for 285,000 earlier this year.These things happen.Do these players think they deserve to have salaries to increase as they have over the last 20 years FOREVER?Are they really that stupid?

 

This is most definitely a market correction and these players need to wise up and learn how to deal with it.It has been a long time coming and it is here now.I would not be surprised if Darvish is forced to settle for way WAY less sometime in April.Would not shock me at all.If you ask me, he and his agent are being ridiculous.I am not interested in him at all.

 

It's hard to feel sorry for guys making that kind of cash... So I won't. But... they gave up leverage during prime years for the expectation of a pay day that may not come due to a possible market correction under the current CBA. 

 

The next negotiation will be a difficult one because with every action there is an equal reaction.

 

The players are going to demand a fair chunk of the overall pie. 

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#228 ewen21

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Posted 04 February 2018 - 06:57 PM

Had we signed Darvish to the Strasburg-like contract he is holding out for it would have been a colossal mistake.He's lucky if he gets 5 years 135 at this point.If he doesn't have anything sew up by the time full team workouts begin for Spring Training he will be in a tough spot with his new team.

 

 


#229 spycake

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Posted 04 February 2018 - 10:35 PM

there are very few pitchers who maintain their ability level past 32 years of age.


No one is arguing that, okay?

What you seem to be missing is that Darvish doesn't HAVE to do that to justify a 5/125 contract. The projections do NOT have him doing that, and yet they show he can still be worth 5/125. He could fall short even of those modest projections, and STILL more or less justify the contract just on the shape of his diminished production (i.e. if he manages to produce most of it in the first season or two, like Anibal Sanchez did).

And you're not being "pragmatic" when you're refusing to even try projecting the guy for ANYTHING. I'm glad that's not how the Twins are approaching it.
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#230 PseudoSABR

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Posted 04 February 2018 - 11:02 PM

 

Use single spaces at the end of sentences instead of two and that will ‘fix’ the spacing issue.

That's really what the problem has been? And only a single space after a period, what is this a heathen operation?

Edited by PseudoSABR, 05 February 2018 - 09:04 AM.

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#231 Rhino and Compass

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Posted 04 February 2018 - 11:06 PM

Part of the reason that players see their contracts balloon is the big money teams making aggressive moves into free agency, but this year, for various reasons, not the least of which that next year is a more influential class. Nothing changed... Smaller market teams don't suddenly have the money to spend that big market teams do. Only the Cubs are actively seeking pitching, and there are 4 pretty good pitchers out there, and they don't have much competition if they are only looking at Darvish. This offseason is just economics, supply and demand.

Alternatively, I did see something, I believe it was from Hardball Times, that said because the MLBPA failed to look out for international free agents, they became a much cheaper alternative, and there is less interest in those more veteran FA's that cost so much money.

I think it's more Part 1 than Part 2, but its economics over collusion either way

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#232 SQUIRREL

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Posted 04 February 2018 - 11:16 PM

That's really what the problem has? And only a single space after a period, what is this a heathen operation?


Ask Brock. :)

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#233 USAFChief

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Posted 05 February 2018 - 06:41 AM

 

That's really what the problem has? And only a single space after a period, what is this a heathen operation?

One would think a newly minted lawyer would write better than this. :)

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#234 PseudoSABR

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Posted 05 February 2018 - 09:05 AM

 

One would think a newly minted lawyer would write better than this. :)

When complaining, it's probably best not to make sense. 

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#235 ashbury

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Posted 05 February 2018 - 09:12 AM

That's really what the problem has been? And only a single space after a period, what is this a heathen operation?

One would think a newly minted lawyer would write better than this. :)

I'm going to have to ask you to take this explosive topic to the Sports Bar forum area - although, we usually discuss only tamer issues like presidential politics and Middle East peace plans there, so The Chicago Manual of Style and its ilk may be a bit too much to handle, and Warning Points could well be inevitable.

 

(j/k, for those of a mind to take this literally)

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#236 ewen21

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Posted 05 February 2018 - 03:04 PM


No one is arguing that, okay?

What you seem to be missing is that Darvish doesn't HAVE to do that to justify a 5/125 contract. The projections do NOT have him doing that, and yet they show he can still be worth 5/125. He could fall short even of those modest projections, and STILL more or less justify the contract just on the shape of his diminished production (i.e. if he manages to produce most of it in the first season or two, like Anibal Sanchez did).

And you're not being "pragmatic" when you're refusing to even try projecting the guy for ANYTHING. I'm glad that's not how the Twins are approaching it.


I am using historical data for all starting pitchers. This does the same thing:
https://www.fangraph...-and-relievers/

Seeing what I have seen of Darvish and knowing his career trajectory thus far, I don't see him as being "an ace"

We don't agree. Worse things can happen.
It is actually good timbre for a discussion.

#237 spycake

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Posted 05 February 2018 - 04:03 PM

I am using historical data for all starting pitchers. This does the same thing:
https://www.fangraph...-and-relievers/


You do realize that the projections I have been referencing are based on exactly that? I think you are arguing a straw man at this point, so I will bow out.

#238 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 05 February 2018 - 04:52 PM

I am using historical data for all starting pitchers. This does the same thing:
https://www.fangraph...-and-relievers/

Seeing what I have seen of Darvish and knowing his career trajectory thus far, I don't see him as being "an ace"

We don't agree. Worse things can happen.
It is actually good timbre for a discussion.


If anyone realistically thought he was an ace (depending on how a person defines that), we probably wouldn't be having this discussion, because he'd be well out of the Twins financial reach.

#239 ewen21

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Posted 05 February 2018 - 08:21 PM

 

If anyone realistically thought he was an ace (depending on how a person defines that), we probably wouldn't be having this discussion, because he'd be well out of the Twins financial reach.

So then if that is the case why are we signing him "regardless of the price"??

 

 


#240 USAFChief

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Posted 05 February 2018 - 08:52 PM

So then if that is the case why are we signing him "regardless of the price"??

because it's not only about WAR/dollar. This isn't a financial exercise, or some theoretical investment contest.

It's about winning MLB games, and Darvish represents a realistic opportunity to greatly improve a staff of a team that is ready to take a step up.

Do it.
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