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Article: Dollars Make Sense For 2018 Twins

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#21 Jham

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Posted 26 January 2018 - 11:37 AM

The Cubs added before their core was all there... How did that work?


And it's not like savings from 1 year are rolled over into payroll in subsequent years with this franchise. It's added to the profit line.
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#22 spycake

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Posted 26 January 2018 - 11:53 AM

 

2018 is still a building year. Bring in a couple short-term contract starters for depth and then see what the Gonsalves, Romero, Thorpe, Little, Jorge quintet have to offer. They may be better than any big money, long-term FA that we can sign now. Use the extra cash now to sign the young guys to extensions so the window of opportunity stays open for years.

None of those prospects listed are projected to make the opening day roster. In fact, 3 of them have yet to even throw a pitch at AAA, and the two that have appeared in AAA have a combined 8 appearances at that level, both with ERA's over 5.

 

2018 is likely just about getting their feet wet in AAA/MLB, like Meyer and May in 2014. You're not likely to gain a lot of information or confidence in their future ability to be top-of-the-rotation arms until 2019 at the earliest.

 

Wouldn't it make sense to target a top starter now, to pair with Ervin while these prospects continue to advance, with an eye toward this new starter replacing Ervin as the staff vet after 2019?If not now, then when?It would be different if we had multiple Berrios types right now, well-regarded guys who have already made significant strides in MLB and should hold down a spot if not break out. But we don't -- we only have 1. We could use reinforcements, now, and it doesn't appear we gain anything by waiting a year or two.

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#23 SF Twins Fan

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Posted 26 January 2018 - 11:56 AM

 

And it's not like savings from 1 year are rolled over into payroll in subsequent years with this franchise. It's added to the profit line.

 

I agree with this 1000%. The Twins have been operating well below the supposedly spend 50% of the revenue on payroll shtick for the last 5 or 6 seasons. If the Twins were serious about contending and not cheap they could easily go over 50% of revenue for the next few seasons. Time will tell, but I won't be holding my breath. 

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#24 shimrod

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Posted 26 January 2018 - 11:56 AM

That's a good point. Only the Twins have this problem with "excess profits" mysteriously vanishing from one year to the next. 

 

If the Twins had built their own stadium I wouldn't say one word about their spending. The decision to charge the taxpayers makes it everybody's business. 

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#25 spycake

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Posted 26 January 2018 - 11:58 AM

 

Under the fair assumption that the Twins are still targeting a top of the rotation starter, they are looking at a 2018 payroll near $130 million (should it be Darvish) or $120 million (should it be Lynn, Cobb, or Arrieta).

Minor point, if we're already at $110 mil with Gibson, but shouldn't that be $135 mil or $125 mil with one of these FA starters, respectively? I don't see any of them going for less than $15 mil annually, and Darvish will probably be closer to $25 mil. To the extent they have to "take less" because of market conditions, I think it will be years rather than AAV, no?


#26 terrydactyls1947

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Posted 26 January 2018 - 12:00 PM

100% agree, because if Gonzo ends up just a 4/5, Romero ends up in the pen. Jorge ends up AAAA,
Thorpe isn't quite ready and Little fails, we are stuck waiting for the next round of pitching while our fielders get expensive and people are yelling for us to trade for more prospects.
and the cycle continues.

100% agree, because if Gonzo ends up just a 4/5, Romero ends up in the pen. Jorge ends up AAAA,
Thorpe isn't quite ready and Little fails, we are stuck waiting for the next round of pitching while our fielders get expensive and people are yelling for us to trade for more prospects.
and the cycle continues.


So to continue your 100% negative train of thought, you sign Darvish, Lynn, and Cobb,and commit a couple hundred million dollars, and they all fail. Is that better or worse? I think it's far worse.

#27 Tomj14

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Posted 26 January 2018 - 01:07 PM

 

So to continue your 100% negative train of thought, you sign Darvish, Lynn, and Cobb,and commit a couple hundred million dollars, and they all fail. Is that better or worse? I think it's far worse.

I wouldn't sign all three, I would try and trade for a pitcher first and if then Darvish would be my second option.

but I would ask the question if you took four pitching prospect from any team ever, has all four or even three ever ended up being top end rotation pitchers? How about even two of them if they weren't considered top 50 prospects in all of baseball.

That isn't negative that is looking at history.

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#28 spycake

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Posted 26 January 2018 - 01:59 PM

 

100% agree, because if Gonzo ends up just a 4/5, Romero ends up in the pen. Jorge ends up AAAA,

Thorpe isn't quite ready and Little fails, we are stuck waiting for the next round of pitching while our fielders get expensive and people are yelling for us to trade for more prospects.

and the cycle continues.

I don't think that's quite the best way to phrase it -- that group of SP prospects may not all wash out. But the important consideration for the Twins right now is that the odds of that group producing even one top-of-the-rotation contributor in 2018 are incredibly low.And those odds aren't much higher for 2019 at this point either, given their collective inexperience at present (not just in MLB, but even AAA).

 

The Twins have very little hope of augmenting Ervin and Berrios near the top of the rotation for 2018-2019 without venturing into FA or trades.

 

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#29 Riverbrian

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Posted 26 January 2018 - 02:07 PM

I have been perfectly OK with the club not plunking down big dollars while the team core was very suspect. And the team core was very suspect. 

 

However... I justified being OK with the club not plunking down big dollars while the team core was very suspect with the strong feeling that if the team core started to show something...they would then plunk down some big dollars to support the rising youth. 

 

Ladies and Gentlemen... If the Twins can't spend right now... They may never spend. 

 

I've given them the benefit the doubt and I still do... but... there will be circumstances where I eventually withdraw that doubt benefit. 

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#30 Matthew Lenz

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Posted 26 January 2018 - 02:17 PM

I understand Fox Sports North is not as lucrative as Time Warner (LA Dodgers).I understand that adding a big time free agent or making a splash trade from 2012 - 2015 would probably not have done much with the talent, or lack thereof, that Twins had at the time.Honestly, even in 2015 and 2017 I didn't think of them as "contenders".A possible playoff team?Sure.But not true contenders.

 

Where I completely disagree with you is that calling them cheap is lazy.According to Forbes, in July of 2015 The Pohlad Family is worth an estimated 3.8 billion (with a "b").In the same article they said he bought the Twins for $36 million and they are now worth $670 million, which is a $634 million profit.I'm not saying that they need to get every big free agent, but if they don't get a big free agent it should never be about money.Ever. 

 

For example, from all reports I can find Torii wanted to stay a Twin back when he left for the Angels.If he wanted to stay a Twin, then either they didn't make him an offer (sources indicate that is not true) or they lowballed him (which is what most people think).

 

I have closely followed the Twins for the better part of 20 years.I can't think of a time where the Twins were actually tied to a big name FA.To be fair, not all rumors make the news but I have to assume that if they had actually tried to pursue a top FA we would have heard about it.Pursuing big time FA's is a risk that rarely gives the team 100% value, but the fact is that a lot of teams do it and it is necessary at times to become a true contender.If the Twins didn't even pursue the FA...that's cheap IMO.As much as the Pujols contract is terrible for the Angels, I don't think the Moreno family or the Angels organization has become worth less in the last 6 years.So as much as a "risk" these big contracts are...where is the risk in a no salary cap league?  

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#31 Loops

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Posted 26 January 2018 - 02:56 PM

First of all, be glad we are not the Pirates organization.That is the definition of "cheap".

I have no problem with the Twins not spending wildly on players.It is a gamble.They hae put money out on players in the past.Some have worked.Some have not.It is easy to look back on what was or was not done and say the Twins "should" have done something different.

That being said, there is inflation.Ticket prices rise.Concession prices rise.TV contracts rise.The Twins payroll stays flat.The payroll should go up appropriately with the rising costs that are passed on to the fans.When it does not, we are more more for a more inferior product.

I do not believe the Twins should spend a ton of money on one player. That will not help.It is a "team".A pitcher is only out there once every 5 days.A batter is up once every 9 at bats.We need balance and need to be smart in making a well-balanced team.If there was unlimited money (ie Yankees) we could just throw money around like water and see what happens.We don't have that luxury.


#32 Ted Schwerzler

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Posted 26 January 2018 - 05:47 PM

I had a good question posed to me about the purpose, or direction of "cheap" as it relates to payroll. I wanted to clarify the intention as I think the response I provided was effective.

 

Whether or not you believe the Pohlad's can or should spend more money ever is virtually irrelevant. Billionaire owners in an uncapped sport could ALWAYS afford to spend more. Obviously those with lucrative TV deals are going to feel significantly more inclined to do so. However, as it relates to the Twins and teams in their shoes, talking about payroll with a bad team is barking up the wrong team. Spending money to increase payroll without developed internal talent is a no win situation.

 

There's already a vast amount of people wanting to bash on Mauer's contract undeservedly, imagine spending money on guys that may produce at $25m AAV yet still losing 85+ games a season because no one else is around them.

 

In short, the purpose of this piece was to highlight that the Twins are going to set a record in payroll, and it's now that it makes sense for them to do so. They've gone through a 3 year development arc where their young core was able to establish itself. 2016 was a byproduct of that youth, and the volatility it brings. With young, talented, cheap, controllable players aplenty, spending real dollars on outside talent makes sense.

 

If the Twins would've done nothing this offseason (also assuming they still get a real SP), and in 2019, then you'd have me in a fit over payroll structure. They're operating in a way that makes sense for MLB teams however. It's not the NBA where one or two players change everything. Picking your spots, Minnesota has elected to capitalize on theirs in the right moment and correct way.

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#33 Ted Schwerzler

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Posted 26 January 2018 - 05:49 PM

 

The Cubs added before their core was all there... How did that work?

 

I've wrote a couple of pieces about how the Twins could've accelerated getting to where they are now by following a bit more closely what the Cubs did. Terry Ryan's regime didn't really take that path.

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#34 Ted Schwerzler

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Posted 26 January 2018 - 05:53 PM

 

That's a good point. Only the Twins have this problem with "excess profits" mysteriously vanishing from one year to the next. 

 

If the Twins had built their own stadium I wouldn't say one word about their spending. The decision to charge the taxpayers makes it everybody's business. 

 Stadium's don't bring in anywhere close to the revenue TV deals do. Also, isn't it customary that virtually every new stadium is significantly funded by the public. I guess i've never cared about what I may or may not have contributed to the stadium.

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#35 Monkeypaws

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Posted 26 January 2018 - 06:12 PM

 

 Stadium's don't bring in anywhere close to the revenue TV deals do. Also, isn't it customary that virtually every new stadium is significantly funded by the public. I guess i've never cared about what I may or may not have contributed to the stadium.

I think you are kinda right there - like magazines, circulation doesn't drive the profits, it's ad revenue.

 

Still, compared to the deal the Twins had at the Metrodome, Target Field is a gravy train.

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#36 Broker

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Posted 26 January 2018 - 08:50 PM

I don't pay much attention to talk about the Twins payroll. The Pohlads have lots and lots of money. Suppose the payroll was 200 million. Who could they get for the extra 100 million? MLB players don't grow on trees.

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#37 rv78

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Posted 27 January 2018 - 08:50 AM

 

talking about payroll with a bad team is barking up the wrong team. Spending money to increase payroll without developed internal talent is a no win situation.

 

This may be true but you fail to look at the "cheap" when the Twins had internal talent and didn't add TOP Free Agents to make themselves a Champion. Face it, they had some pretty good teams from 2001 to 2010. Name one top Free Agent they signed.

Here are some of the guys they did sign. Shannon Stewart and Kenny Rogers in 2003. Jose Offerman and Terry Mulholland in 2004. Then there was Tony Batista and Rondell White in 2006. Sidney Ponson and Jeff Cirillo in 2007. Joe Crede and Carl Pavano in 2009. 

Point is, not 1 top Free Agent in the bunch and everyone of them was past his prime, on the decline, and the ONLY reason why the Twins got them was because they were cheap, bottom of the barrel, Free Agents! Sorry my friend, but cheap goes both ways, when you've got internal talent and when you don't. 

 

 

 

 


#38 Brandon

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Posted 27 January 2018 - 09:08 PM

I was trying to think of a Darvish contract compromise. I came up with a 5 year 135 million with a 6 th year option at 25 million or 5 million buy out. We can inckude an opt out after the second or third year too if needed.

#39 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 28 January 2018 - 05:57 PM

 

I don't pay much attention to talk about the Twins payroll. The Pohlads have lots and lots of money. Suppose the payroll was 200 million. Who could they get for the extra 100 million? MLB players don't grow on trees.

Yu Darvish, Wade Davis, and pretty much whomever else you wanted.

 

And at that point, the Twins are one of the best teams in all of baseball.

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