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Article: Report: Darvish Decision Expected This Week, Twins In Consideration

yu darvish chris gimenez jon morosi jon lester david ross
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#61 kab21

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Posted 25 January 2018 - 10:20 AM

 

Sure and we will have a huge contract that will go on as Darvish diminishes in talent and the younger players will need to be paid and extended.I will never advocate for long term, huge contracts for players in their 30's.If the contract starts in their 20s and goes into their 30s yes.But I have watched too many of these great signings go bust.Paying a lot of money for what they did in their prime is only good when you have them in their prime.Look at Pujols. This article was written in 2012, but captures my total reluctance - https://www.cbssport...arting-pitchers/Beckett, Lackey, Lincecum, Wilson, Buerhle...all looked good in the years before the contracts.As far as I am concerned Darvish is already starting to show signs of slipping. 

At some point you have to spend money. 

What signs of slipping do you see? The swstr%, velocity and K rates are all great. Or do you mean ERA...

Is 2016 2017 2018 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Offseason (noun) - a time to propose trades assuming opposing GM's can't do the same basic analysis


#62 Carole Keller

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Posted 25 January 2018 - 10:21 AM

 

That is true and I hope Berrios and Romero will move to that level.Old arms falling from the top of the rotation interest me less than those on the way up.We have hired a plethora of pitching coaches from mlb to minor leagues and then put more coaches overseeing those coaches.Let them earn their money.All aces start as prospects. 

So, we hire Darvish and he's our front-end this year, maybe next ... while Berrios and Romero are moving up. And maybe even the third year we'll have 3 that are 1-2 as Darvish starts his decline and the others are reaching their peak. The thing is, Berrios and Romero becoming front-enders isn't a guarantee. We hope they will be the front-end guys, but that won't be this season or quite possibly not next, either. Meanwhile, the clock is ticking on Sano, Buxton, Rosario ... and the rest of our core. Putting off for tomorrow is, imo, not productive for today.

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#63 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 25 January 2018 - 10:29 AM

 

So, we hire Darvish and he's our front-end this year, maybe next ... while Berrios and Romero are moving up. And maybe even the third year we'll have 3 that are 1-2 as Darvish starts his decline and the others are reaching their peak. The thing is, Berrios and Romero becoming front-enders isn't a guarantee. We hope they will be the front-end guys, but that won't be this season or quite possibly not next, either. Meanwhile, the clock is ticking on Sano, Buxton, Rosario ... and the rest of our core. Putting off for tomorrow is, imo, not productive for today.

Not only is not guaranteed, but it takes time.

 

The window is now. They need help now. Waiting for Gonsalves/Romero to reach their ceilings will essentially punt on 2018 and possibly 2019.

 

Both guys will get a chance to pitch anyways. I'd rather they get that chance with some top shelf pitching in the rotation.

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#64 Mike Sixel

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Posted 25 January 2018 - 11:41 AM

Well, let's be clear about what we were "told". There's a huge difference between telling reporters you're sending evaluators to a workout for someone and that the team has an interest in them, versus saying someone "is a priority". You won't be able to come up with a single example of someone with the Twins saying the Twins are "in on" a bid for any of those Cuban players. I don't think there's any real similarity with what's transpiring with Darvish, do you?


It is not their job to try to improve the team. It is their job to improve it. Danny Santana tried, didn't mean we should judge him as good or praise him for trying. I will judge them on progress, not being in on players. Others feel differently, that's cool with me.
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#65 Loosey

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Posted 25 January 2018 - 12:04 PM

If Darvish is looking less likely internally to Twins Management, maybe they should Zig when everyone else is Zagging and go swoop in on Cobb before all the others who missed out on Darvish come knocking as well. Might not have a market set yet with Darvish, but why not set the 2nd tier market first? That’s what I would do.
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#66 Mike Sixel

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Posted 25 January 2018 - 12:06 PM

 

If Darvish is looking less likely internally to Twins Management, maybe they should Zig when everyone else is Zagging and go swoop in on Cobb before all the others who missed out on Darvish come knocking as well. Might not have a market set yet with Darvish, but why not set the 2nd tier market first? That’s what I would do.

 

I bet Cobb and Lynn are waiting it out at this point. 

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#67 birdwatcher

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Posted 25 January 2018 - 12:12 PM

 

It is not their job to try to improve the team. It is their job to improve it. Danny Santana tried, didn't mean we should judge him as good or praise him for trying. I will judge them on progress, not being in on players. Others feel differently, that's cool with me.

 

 

"we were told for years they were in on the Cubans." Mike, we weren't told this. I guess we could excuse this as semantics, and if you didn't mean to create an impression that there was a level of dishonesty at play here, I accept that.

 

We do agree that judging results is more important than judging activity. While not every action leads to success, that doesn't render the action worthless, so we disagree about whether honest effort is praiseworthy, and as you said, that's cool. I personally admire a great effort even when the outcome isn't equally great.

 

And yes, I'll give Falvey credit for deciding to be in on Darvish regardless of the outcome, but I'll judge him unfavorably, like I did last offseason, if he fails to land another starter that on paper looks like an improvement over Gibson and mejia as a #3.

Edited by birdwatcher, 25 January 2018 - 12:23 PM.


#68 Mike Sixel

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Posted 25 January 2018 - 12:23 PM

 

"we were told for years they were in on the Cubans." Mike, we weren't told this. I guess we could excuse this as semantics, and if you didn't mean to create an impression that there was a level of dishonesty at play here, I accept that.

 

We do agree that judging results is more important than judging activity. While not every action leads to success, that doesn't render the action worthless, so we disagree about whether honest effort is praiseworthy, and as you said, that's cool. I personally admire a great effort even when the outcome isn't equally great.

 

Nope, no implication of dishonesty at all. I really have no idea what they are trying or not trying. I just don't care if they are trying. As a fan, not shareholder, not friend of them, not anything other than fan, I want entertaining, winning, baseball. 

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#69 TheLeviathan

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Posted 25 January 2018 - 03:59 PM

 

Nope, no implication of dishonesty at all. I really have no idea what they are trying or not trying. I just don't care if they are trying. As a fan, not shareholder, not friend of them, not anything other than fan, I want entertaining, winning, baseball. 

 

At some point "you tried hard" loses it's luster when you never succeed.Either you are the most miserably unlikely group ever, or perhaps the claim you were trying hard is a bit dubious.

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#70 mikelink45

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Posted 25 January 2018 - 05:52 PM

 

I will take both personally. I have hopes for Berrios. Romero has the upside but he is very raw and has some significant injury concerns. I am uncertain if he will last more than a full season or two as a starter.

Of course, all aces start as prospects but not all prospects have the upside of an ace. Some come out of nowhere and surprise but the Twins mostly have MOR types in the system. You are going to be waiting a long time to put a strong playoff caliber rotation with the Twins system. And that is a problem imo.

At this point I am willing to take that chance.I would much prefer Archer or another young pitcher rather than a 30+ FA. 


#71 mikelink45

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Posted 25 January 2018 - 05:55 PM

 

At some point you have to spend money. 

What signs of slipping do you see? The swstr%, velocity and K rates are all great. Or do you mean ERA...

We should spend money when we have the right guy - a relatively young and productive pitcher like Archer, not because we have the money.Free Agents are seldom the solution, they are add ons, and we need a base of good pitching where the add on really makes us championship quality.

​No one has shown me that Darvish is the answer, or for that matter Lynn and Cobb.Yes they are the only ones available, but there are trades and opportunities down the road.We do not have to make this move now. 

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#72 mikelink45

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Posted 25 January 2018 - 06:07 PM

 

So, we hire Darvish and he's our front-end this year, maybe next ... while Berrios and Romero are moving up. And maybe even the third year we'll have 3 that are 1-2 as Darvish starts his decline and the others are reaching their peak. The thing is, Berrios and Romero becoming front-enders isn't a guarantee. We hope they will be the front-end guys, but that won't be this season or quite possibly not next, either. Meanwhile, the clock is ticking on Sano, Buxton, Rosario ... and the rest of our core. Putting off for tomorrow is, imo, not productive for today.

I feel like a man in the wilderness - which is appropriate since my career has been guiding adventure trips and leading people into nature for extended experiences, but this is a different wilderness so let me lay out my objections:

  1. Darvish has looked like anything but HOF the last two years and he is only getting older.I have watched too many pitchers peak in their very early 30s and then fade.  
  2. If we have him for 5-6 years and he is not an Ace we will be paying him Ace money and what good is that.Are the Angels happy to pay Pujols for his negative value despite the fact that he was HOF when he was with the Cardinals.The Cardinals were wise.
  3. Ervin Santana has 1 or 2 years left.Many project his regression for this year.
  4. Berrios is ready to move up.The progression has been great.
  5. The young players have progressed and will continue to do so - and we can build with them.
  6. If Gonsalves and Romero can put things together this year and star the next we are where we want to be.
  7. MLB has become a BP league and we have our strongest BP ever so ride it our and do not overpay for a veteran starter who is aging and regressing. He has completed 2 games in 5 years so the BP is essential to his success.He is good, but how he has attained a reputation as this amazing starter is not something I understand.  
  8. If we invest in personal coaches, if we truly emphasize development we can bring forth our young pitchers.We have Mejia, Berrios, Goncalves, Romero, Trevor May, Pineda, Thorpe, Slegers and Jorge - can't we develop them?
  9. The other teams guys are not necessarily better than what we have.Who knows, in two years 
  10. It is not my money, but I would not spend it like this. 
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#73 amjgt

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Posted 25 January 2018 - 06:09 PM

I love how signing a 29yo to a long contract is somehow incredible, but a 31yo is pure insanity. We all know the bell curves, but that is over thousands and thousand of baseball players. This is one dude.
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#74 birdwatcher

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Posted 25 January 2018 - 06:19 PM

 

At some point "you tried hard" loses it's luster when you never succeed.Either you are the most miserably unlikely group ever, or perhaps the claim you were trying hard is a bit dubious.

 

Suggesting that "trying hard" doesn't count for anything is dubious to me. Suggesting that the past or current front office "never succeeded" is, well, simply false. 

 

There's ample opportunity to dish out fair criticism about decisions, inaction, and actions without calling into question how hard someone tried or offering an inaccurate comment about something that questions his integrity. I'm not picking a fight with you. I just have a strong reaction to judgmental opinions about things like intentions ("he doesn't care about winning") or opinions based on something that never happened ("we've been told for years that"). I admit to being hypersensitive about unfair portrayals and criticism that's false or brutally unfair.

 

I don't think Falvey solved the bullpen problem last off-season. He succeeded in that area this off-season. I think it's fair to be critical of last year's results and praise him for this year's actions, despite not yet knowing what the results will be. If Falvey fails in his effort to sign Darvish, I'll remain appreciative of his decision to go after him, won't you? I'm not going to question how hard he tried, because I wouldn't know what I was talking about and it would be a dubious criticism.;)

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#75 Mike Sixel

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Posted 25 January 2018 - 06:20 PM


I feel like a man in the wilderness - which is appropriate since my career has been guiding adventure trips and leading people into nature for extended experiences, but this is a different wilderness so let me lay out my objections:

  • Darvish has looked like anything but HOF the last two years and he is only getting older. I have watched too many pitchers peak in their very early 30s and then fade.
  • If we have him for 5-6 years and he is not an Ace we will be paying him Ace money and what good is that. Are the Angels happy to pay Pujols for his negative value despite the fact that he was HOF when he was with the Cardinals. The Cardinals were wise.
  • Ervin Santana has 1 or 2 years left. Many project his regression for this year.
  • Berrios is ready to move up. The progression has been great.
  • The young players have progressed and will continue to do so - and we can build with them.
  • If Gonsalves and Romero can put things together this year and star the next we are where we want to be.
  • MLB has become a BP league and we have our strongest BP ever so ride it our and do not overpay for a veteran starter who is aging and regressing. He has completed 2 games in 5 years so the BP is essential to his success. He is good, but how he has attained a reputation as this amazing starter is not something I understand.
  • If we invest in personal coaches, if we truly emphasize development we can bring forth our young pitchers. We have Mejia, Berrios, Goncalves, Romero, Trevor May, Pineda, Thorpe, Slegers and Jorge - can't we develop them?
  • The other teams guys are not necessarily better than what we have. Who knows, in two years
  • It is not my money, but I would not spend it like this.

Serious question... You'd rather the owners pocket the money, than make the team better? Because there aren't many young free agents, ever.
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#76 Mike Sixel

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Posted 25 January 2018 - 06:25 PM

We should spend money when we have the right guy - a relatively young and productive pitcher like Archer, not because we have the money. Free Agents are seldom the solution, they are add ons, and we need a base of good pitching where the add on really makes us championship quality.
​No one has shown me that Darvish is the answer, or for that matter Lynn and Cobb. Yes they are the only ones available, but there are trades and opportunities down the road. We do not have to make this move now.


Relatively young players like Archer are not free agents. How is it better to trade players, than to spend only money?
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#77 Riverbrian

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Posted 25 January 2018 - 06:51 PM

 

 

I feel like a man in the wilderness - which is appropriate since my career has been guiding adventure trips and leading people into nature for extended experiences, but this is a different wilderness so let me lay out my objections:

  1. Darvish has looked like anything but HOF the last two years and he is only getting older.I have watched too many pitchers peak in their very early 30s and then fade.  
  2. If we have him for 5-6 years and he is not an Ace we will be paying him Ace money and what good is that.Are the Angels happy to pay Pujols for his negative value despite the fact that he was HOF when he was with the Cardinals.The Cardinals were wise.
  3. Ervin Santana has 1 or 2 years left.Many project his regression for this year.
  4. Berrios is ready to move up.The progression has been great.
  5. The young players have progressed and will continue to do so - and we can build with them.
  6. If Gonsalves and Romero can put things together this year and star the next we are where we want to be.
  7. MLB has become a BP league and we have our strongest BP ever so ride it our and do not overpay for a veteran starter who is aging and regressing. He has completed 2 games in 5 years so the BP is essential to his success.He is good, but how he has attained a reputation as this amazing starter is not something I understand.  
  8. If we invest in personal coaches, if we truly emphasize development we can bring forth our young pitchers.We have Mejia, Berrios, Goncalves, Romero, Trevor May, Pineda, Thorpe, Slegers and Jorge - can't we develop them?
  9. The other teams guys are not necessarily better than what we have.Who knows, in two years 
  10. It is not my money, but I would not spend it like this. 

 

 

The beauty of Twins Daily is the clear display of multiple and different opinions. You have my respect while I completely disagree with you. You are not a man in the wilderness... there are plenty here that agree with you... I'm just not one of those. 

 

1. I'm sure the HOF discription was embellishment and I think the aging process that we all go through is true enough to support your assertion that players fade as they age. You also forgot to mention that pitchers frequently get severe injuries that can shut them down for an entire year and that could be year one of the contract. I won't tell you that Darvish can defy all of that. I will simply tell you that I believe that Darvish has stuff that very few in this league can match or surpass. He can help this team right now and how much help he can provide us at the end of the contract will have to be addressed later.

 

2. The Twins have clearly identified him as top of the rotation talent. If he fails to be a top of the rotation talent it will be disappointing for everyone but that's like saying... I'm not going to get married because what if my wife hates me. What if she doesn't. As for the Angels... I think the Angels understood how old Pujols would be at the end of the contract. I think the Angels wanted Pujols and paid the price to get Pujols because that was the price. They got who they wanted and I don't think the Angels are hating having him on the roster. I also think the Cardinals were wise at the same time. The clubs were in different situations at the time. It worked out for both. 

 

3. I don't worry about projections... they are a dime a dozen... It only matters what actually happens. But... if the projectors are correct and Santana goes belly up on us... We will need Darvish more than ever. 

 

4. I'm excited about Berrios... I wouldn't bet against him blowing the league away and even making the all-star game. It still has nothing to do with signing Darvish. Berrios is Great... Berrios and Darvish is Great plus Darvish. 

 

5. I assume you mean the Buxton core young players here. Building with them doesn't just mean building with youth only... Building means from any avenue that is open for business. Signing a free agent is building. 

 

6. If... I really hope they can and do. But the "If" that starts your sentence is similar to the "If" that goes in front of Darvish. If Gonsalves and Romero put things together this year... They will pitch in the bigs this year because pitchers don't stay healthy for an entire year. Then you are talking Gonsalves, Romero, Berrios plus Darvish and the declining Santana... The hopefully figuring out Gibson and the whatever Mejia becomes. Might be able to move some of that extra to get Archer. 

 

7. I'm a big super bullpen guy and I plan on remaining a super bullpen guy. I'm a believer. But just because the value of the bullpen has increased in my eyes at least... it doesn't mean the importance of Starting Pitchers or Shortstops has decreased. 

 

8. You have to believe in your development. It's the only way to have sustained runs for success as an organization. Signing Darvish does not impede the development of your farm system. It's only money. The trade you want to make for Archer does.(I'd be ok with that trade myself). Trading for Archer would be like a cannonball through the farm system since you would have to provide those developing players to the Rays to acquire Archer. 

 

9. Some of the other teams players are better than our and some of the other teams players are not. We want the ones who are better. 

 

10. It is my money... it is my time investment... every summer it is my hope and dreams. I would absolutely spend it like this. And I'd say... it's about time as it was spent. 

 

:)  

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#78 tvagle

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Posted 25 January 2018 - 06:57 PM

This has to be the top Forum Topic with 4000 word posts...I'm gonna need helpers soon enough

:)

Edited by tvagle, 25 January 2018 - 06:57 PM.

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#79 Doomtints

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Posted 25 January 2018 - 07:00 PM

At the same time Carl Pohlad purchased the Twins, then-baseball-commissioner Peter Ueberroth was chastising baseball owners for spending money on free agents. The end result was collusion charges against the league.

 

What I'm getting at is ... Ueberroth used the exact same arguments you hear from Twins fans about spending money. Twins fans don't know it, but they are aping fat cat baseball owner arguments for not spending cash. Ueberroth called owners "stupid" (among other colorful words) for spending money on free agents with the goal to win games. Build from within, spend nothing, and only work with free agents after the player is desperate and prices have come down.

 

This is what Carl Pohlad was hearing throughout his first years involved with the game, over and over.

 

You will remember Andy MacPhail "resigned" shortly after he opened the pocketbook, same with Bill Smith. Terry Ryan heard Carl's message (which was Ueberroth's message originally) and never spent money (except when it was necessary politically).

 

You can bet Carl passed this message down to Jim too.

 

So for anyone who feels like going on about how spending cash on free agents is dumb/pointless/doesn't work/etc., remember this:

1) We have all heard this argument before. This conversation always gets heated, and I'm not sure what the point is in raising your own blood pressure on the same topic every month or two when nothing new is ever said.

2) Before making any argument, consider the source. The argument of baseball owners spending cash = dumb is a con with the end goal of making ALL of the league owners richer.

3) Look at the track records of the teams who spend as little as possible. There is simply no valid argument about this strategy working consistently. It's only a good strategy if team owners are colluding. Any team who still follows this strategy, when other teams are not, is helping other teams win games.

 

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#80 mikelink45

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Posted 25 January 2018 - 07:06 PM

 

Serious question... You'd rather the owners pocket the money, than make the team better? Because there aren't many young free agents, ever.

No I am just not excited by this years free agents.Here is a quote from ESPN today that I really liked about Darvish - Buyer beware: Darvish will be paid like an ace, but he’s more of a six-inning starter these days. His wOBA (weighted on-base average) allowed was .289 through pitch 50 but .334 from pitches 51 to 100, and he lasted fewer than six innings in 11 of his 32 starts.

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