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Article: Would You Rather: Darvish or a Cobb/Lynn Combo?

yu darvish alex cobb lance lynn kyle gibson adalberto mejia
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#81 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 29 January 2018 - 04:01 PM

 

Ok, that middle paragraph is the epitome of SSS. Santana pitched horribly. Anyone that pitches horribly with respect to their abilities is not going to be successful. Darvish and Kershaw both showed us that.Santana pitched like an ace most of the year and then has a clunker. That is evidence that he didn't get us out of the WC game but certainly not that he was not capable of doing so. 

My point isn't that Santana failed in the Wild Card game, it's that the Twins had to go to New York and play said Wild Card game and the reason they didn't play at home is because their pitching staff was well below average.

 

I'd certainly prefer to see someone better than Santana pitch the first game of the postseason but mostly I'm concerned about the 30-33 regular season starts that player gets before the postseason.


#82 Dantes929

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Posted 29 January 2018 - 04:43 PM

 

5-4, actually. The Cardinals were 3-4 in Lynn's postseason starts, the Rays were 2-0 behind Cobb. Although none of that is recent: Lynn's last postseason start was 2014, and Cobb's was 2013 (and his K/9 has fallen by 2 since then).

I think I confused the game results with the series results.So I also missed the games started stats but he was 5-4 in terms of record but 3-4 in games started. Doesn't really disprove that they are capable of winning playoff games.I think they have all come back from injuries and Cobb coming back as well as he did without a feel for his best pitch is encouraging to me. If he gets the feel back, he could be a real sleeper. If he doesn't, he stillhas a nice curve ball and could still give us mid rotation performance.

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#83 Dantes929

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Posted 29 January 2018 - 04:52 PM

 

My point isn't that Santana failed in the Wild Card game, it's that the Twins had to go to New York and play said Wild Card game and the reason they didn't play at home is because their pitching staff was well below average.

 

I'd certainly prefer to see someone better than Santana pitch the first game of the postseason but mostly I'm concerned about the 30-33 regular season starts that player gets before the postseason.

Yankees should have won 100 and the Twins should have won 83 and it was in New York so they were definitely underdogs but still only a good performance from Santana away from stealing one.Didn't happen.Such is life.I think any one of the three is a good bet to close the gap because I do have faith that Mejia and or others will fill more of the gap at the very back of the rotation.Someone we don't expect is going to surprise us in a good way but I agree with Chief's position that a solid or better starterfrom the outside would be a big plus.I don't believe these guys are rehashes of Correia and Nolasco. I think they are true upgrades.Any one of them. 

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#84 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 29 January 2018 - 05:09 PM

 

Yankees should have won 100 and the Twins should have won 83 and it was in New York so they were definitely underdogs but still only a good performance from Santana away from stealing one.Didn't happen.Such is life.I think any one of the three is a good bet to close the gap because I do have faith that Mejia and or others will fill more of the gap at the very back of the rotation.Someone we don't expect is going to surprise us in a good way but I agree with Chief's position that a solid or better starterfrom the outside would be a big plus.I don't believe these guys are rehashes of Correia and Nolasco. I think they are true upgrades.Any one of them. 

I agree that both Cobb and Lynn would be an upgrade to the rotation but how much of an upgrade is more difficult to judge.

 

Whereas Darvish isn't only an upgrade, the only pitcher who could come close to his performance is Berrios and that would require a pretty big step forward from Jose.

 

My point overall is that it's time to stop working (only) in the margins and begin to acquire players that make the team significantly better going forward. As I said, Lynn or Cobb are fine consolation prizes but I hope the Twins are aiming higher this offseason.

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#85 jorgenswest

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Posted 29 January 2018 - 06:14 PM

For the playoffs, I would love to have the 2013 Lynn or Cobb. That is the last either won a playoff game. That was 5 years and a significant injury ago.

The Twins need to be projecting forward and not looking backward. Projecting forward through their mid thirties won’t be as hope filled as looking back at their primes.

#86 jtkoupal

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Posted 31 January 2018 - 11:39 AM

 

Not arguing so much with your conclusion as your premise.Playoff performance.

 

Alex Cobb 1-0 with 1.56 ERA

Lance Lynn5-4 and 7-4 in games he has started with a 4.5 ERA

Yu Darvish 2-4 with a 5.81 ERA

 

I agree that Darvish matches up better but that is just on paper. If either Cobb or Lynn had been on the Dodgers team this year instead of Darvish maybe LA wins the WS.

How do Mejia and Gibson project to the same value of Lynn and Cobb when their history of success is so different?

Mejia projects to be a 1.5 win player (Fangraphs)

Gibson projects to be a 2 win player (Fangraphs)

Lynn projects to be a 1.3 win player and had a disastrous 4.82 FIP/4.75 xFIP last season.

Cobb projects to be a 1.7 win player, though was a 2.4 win player last season.

 

That equates to, likely, 7 figures for the difference of probably 1 more win. Maybe 2 depending on who your fifth starter is without making a signing.

 

Darvish projects to be a 3.6 win player. 

 

As for the playoff numbers, beware of the Central Limit Theorem. Good players, with enough repetitions, become good players. Average players become average players. Mediocre players become mediocre players. Kershaw has had some bad postseasons but you would still take him, wouldn't you??

 


#87 laloesch

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Posted 31 January 2018 - 06:21 PM

 

Mejia projects to be a 1.5 win player (Fangraphs)

Gibson projects to be a 2 win player (Fangraphs)

Lynn projects to be a 1.3 win player and had a disastrous 4.82 FIP/4.75 xFIP last season.

Cobb projects to be a 1.7 win player, though was a 2.4 win player last season.

 

That equates to, likely, 7 figures for the difference of probably 1 more win. Maybe 2 depending on who your fifth starter is without making a signing.

 

Darvish projects to be a 3.6 win player. 

 

As for the playoff numbers, beware of the Central Limit Theorem. Good players, with enough repetitions, become good players. Average players become average players. Mediocre players become mediocre players. Kershaw has had some bad postseasons but you would still take him, wouldn't you??

 

I think Fangraphs projections for Lynn are way off.He is much better than 1.3 WAR.I think he will be much closer to mid 3's in 2018 consistent with what he did from 2013-2015.  


#88 jimbo92107

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Posted 01 February 2018 - 05:15 PM

 

I agree though I think the premise of Darvish vs both Lynn and Cobb is pie in the sky. If we sign just one of those guys it falls under your blanket of reasoning.I would be happy with any of the three because I think any one of the three would deepen and improve our rotation and give us a better shot at the playoffs. I would rank them Darvish, Cobb and Lynn. I don't trust NL starters even though Correia really wasn't that bad for us.Nolasco was.Anyway that is why I rank Cobb slightly ahead of Lynn. Cobb has done it in the division with the best offenses.  

Darvish is too costly, but one of Cobb or Lynn would do most of what Chief suggested, taking some pressure off the kids. 

 

Still, I'd rather see 2018 be another year of extended tryouts for the Twins minor league talent. If Gonsalves and Romero don't flame out, then we've got the foundation of a solid pitching staff for the next few years. Then you add a hired gun like Darvish in 2019 to see how far you get in a playoff run. Meanwhile, bring up a bunch of AA and AAA guys to see if they can get guys out somehow. 

 

To me it looks like the Twins system is brimming with future starters at #3 through #5 positions, but only a couple (Berrios, Romero) as possible aces. Gonsalves looks to be a possible #3, if his arm holds up. I'm not too high on Tyler Jay. 

Edited by jimbo92107, 01 February 2018 - 05:17 PM.

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