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Article: Would You Rather: Darvish or a Cobb/Lynn Combo?

yu darvish alex cobb lance lynn kyle gibson adalberto mejia
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#41 Lefty

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Posted 24 January 2018 - 10:54 AM

I feel like Berrios is getting closer to becoming that #1 guy we're looking for.Santana will be solid for us.I love what they're doing to fill the holes in the bullpen.I want to see what Gonsalves and May turn into.The Gibson we saw at the end of the year was pretty solid as well.We still do have a couple younger options that are getting close.We are getting closer to a full staff.I guess I've talked myself into going for one of the top 2 guys out there and spending to get him.Otherwise, hold off until the trade deadline and swap a couple guys to pick up a solid starter if it's looking like we're in the running.  

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#42 MN_ExPat

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Posted 24 January 2018 - 10:57 AM

Ok, time to take a break from eating glue paste and crayons... (Hmmm, maybe that's why I keep getting them taken away).

 

Thanks Tom, I really appreciate one more topic to really get my neurotic synapses firing full bore...It's an intriguing thought, but I would concur with many and hope they pull the plug on the bathwater bank and let the water/money flow to Darvish. Lynn and Cobb could be great additions, and it is conceivable that they could both be landed and brought into the fold. But I can't help but feel that Darvish would be the statement the Twins need to make. Will they? I have no earthly clue, but I can hope and dream.

 

And Archer....???? Unless you want to see a recreation of a really bad 70's prison movie shower scene where the "new guy" is played by Twins prospects given up in sacrifice, let us speak of this no more ;)

 

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#43 bobs

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Posted 24 January 2018 - 11:15 AM

I'm always leary of guys who've had the majority (or all) of their success in the NL.Call it the Matt Capps syndrome.So I'm leary of Arrieta and Lynn.I want Darvish.Take a 2-0 count swing.Cobb at 29 with all success in AL is more appealing to me than Arrieta at 31 with all of success in NL.  

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#44 Dantes929

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Posted 24 January 2018 - 11:17 AM

Cobb/Lynn and its not even close.Just kidding. Really tough to analyze because you shouldn't just be looking at this year and you should still be looking at making the playoffs because doing well in the playoffs is still a crapshoot.Santana didn't do well in the playoffs this year but that doesn't mean he couldn't have.He pitched like an ace pretty much all year.If you look at the Twins playoff history and game 163's I don't think it has been the starting pitching that has been the problem. Make the playoffs first.I would rank them Darvish, Cobb and Lynn but ERA hasn't separated them though ERA+ does. I would still rather improve two spots than one but this is a little pointless.We are very likely to end up with none of them so I would be quite happy with any of them and am comfortable relying on Meija, May, Gonsalves, Romero to fill out the 5th spot and as backup for any that falter.

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#45 Thrylos

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Posted 24 January 2018 - 11:19 AM

Cobb/Lynn sounds a bit too much like Hughes/Nolasco for me to be comfortable with that. The Twins do have mid rotation starters.They need a clear top of the rotation starter and neither Cobb nor Lynn is that...

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#46 spycake

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Posted 24 January 2018 - 11:45 AM

 

I don't know, i'd have a hard time passing on Lynn if i couldn't get Darvish.Of all three Lynn has been the most consistent when it comes to innings pitched, games started, win-loss record and strikeouts. 

 

Darvish is far superior when it comes to k/9, whip and pure stuff but i also like the consistency of Lynn and he's 30.  

A large part of Lynn's "consistency" is just the fortuitous timing of his surgery.Lynn pitched the full 2015 season, then had TJ surgery in Nov. 2015 and was back in MLB for the full 2017 season.Overall, he was out of MLB for ~16 months, but he was lucky that it only spanned 1 season and 2 offseasons.

 

Darvish was shut down with elbow inflammation in 2014, but didn't undergo TJ surgey until March 2015.(His team likely postponing surgery as much as possible because he was a bigger investment than Lynn or Cobb?)Darvish was back in MLB ~15 months after surgery, basically the same as Lynn, but spanning two seasons and only 1 offseason.He has not missed significant time otherwise.

 

Cobb has missed a bit more time in his career, but the timing of his surgery was the worst of this group -- May 2015, after it was presumably detected in spring training that year.Cobb returned to MLB ~15 months later too, but due to the timing, it looks like 2 full seasons were wiped out.

 

Also, I'm not sure why you'd say Lynn is most consistent in strikeouts, unless you are only looking at raw totals -- which is basically double-counting his surgery timing advantage above.Otherwise, his 2017 K/9 or K% is actually a lower percentage of his peak starter K rate (2012) than doing the same comparison for Darvish.This despite Darvish's peak K rate being so much higher.

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#47 DocBauer

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Posted 24 January 2018 - 11:48 AM

Darvish, no question, if the cost isn't just crazy. He's better than either, and there is depth here and more coming to a ballpark near you soon!

Second: ONE of Lynn or Cobb. You still deepen your rotation and your chances. And did I mention the depth and the depth coming soon? No need for 2 contracts, loss of 2 draft choices, and block what you have.
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#48 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 24 January 2018 - 11:55 AM

 

Darvish, no question, if the cost isn't just crazy. He's better than either, and there is depth here and more coming to a ballpark near you soon!

Second: ONE of Lynn or Cobb. You still deepen your rotation and your chances. And did I mention the depth and the depth coming soon? No need for 2 contracts, loss of 2 draft choices, and block what you have.

I'd note that Lynn never had a K rate below 8 per 9 until this season (first full season back from TJS). I don't think the risk here is nearly as much as some think. Control is usually the last thing to return and Lynn saw upticks in his BB rate, HR rate, with a down tick in Ks (all of which are explained by control). I suspect that this will normalize a bit more in 2018. He doesn't scare me. I could also see a guy like Lynn betting on himself on a one year deal. If he posts something more along the lines of his career norms, he's looking at a much bigger deal next season. Only real concern is not recovery but NL to AL transition.

 

I'd sacrifice a draft pick for Lynn... I prefer Darvish, but I'd be quite happy if we walked away with Lynn.

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#49 laloesch

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Posted 24 January 2018 - 12:18 PM

 

A large part of Lynn's "consistency" is just the fortuitous timing of his surgery.Lynn pitched the full 2015 season, then had TJ surgery in Nov. 2015 and was back in MLB for the full 2017 season.Overall, he was out of MLB for ~16 months, but he was lucky that it only spanned 1 season and 2 offseasons.

 

Darvish was shut down with elbow inflammation in 2014, but didn't undergo TJ surgey until March 2015.(His team likely postponing surgery as much as possible because he was a bigger investment than Lynn or Cobb?)Darvish was back in MLB ~15 months after surgery, basically the same as Lynn, but spanning two seasons and only 1 offseason.He has not missed significant time otherwise.

 

Cobb has missed a bit more time in his career, but the timing of his surgery was the worst of this group -- May 2015, after it was presumably detected in spring training that year.Cobb returned to MLB ~15 months later too, but due to the timing, it looks like 2 full seasons were wiped out.

 

Also, I'm not sure why you'd say Lynn is most consistent in strikeouts, unless you are only looking at raw totals -- which is basically double-counting his surgery timing advantage above.Otherwise, his 2017 K/9 or K% is actually a lower percentage of his peak starter K rate (2012) than doing the same comparison for Darvish.This despite Darvish's peak K rate being so much higher.

 

So your basically saying that we shouldn't factor injury history into a pitcher's consistency or his stats unless it's Lance Lynn because of his "lucky" timing of TJ?While disregarding how injuries have effected Darvish and Cobb and their overall stats and work so far?Whose to say those two seasons Cobb missed were going to be stellar?I don't get it.....to each their own i guess.

 

Like i said earlier, i'd like to have Darvish but if not, Lynn would still be a good signing to walk away with this off-season.

Edited by laloesch, 24 January 2018 - 12:26 PM.


#50 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 24 January 2018 - 12:25 PM

 

So your basically saying that we shouldn't factor injury history into a pitcher's consistency or his stats and completely disregard how those injuries have effected the overall work of that said pitcher because of timing?Wow....to each their own i guess. Like i said earlier, i'd like to have Darvish but if not Lynn would still be a good signing.

If all three pitchers go down with injuries that take them out of baseball for roughly the same amount of time, the timing of that injury should not be held against the pitchers whose "timing" was bad, nor should we reward pitchers whose "timing" was good.

 

You don't choose when you get injured and if all three guys go down for roughly the same amount of time, it's just dumb luck if one of them misses one season while another misses almost two full seasons.

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#51 Sconnie

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Posted 24 January 2018 - 01:52 PM

Your joking right? Personally, if we can't get Darvish i'd still like to have Lynn or Cobb just to shore up the rotation behind Santana and Berrios. There's no way i'd gamble on Gibson or anyone else at this point in the top 3.

Kyle Gibson k/9 6.24 B.B./9 3.17 FIP 4.35
Phil Hughes k/9 7.21 B.B./9 2.17 FIP 4.21
Ricky Nolasco k/9 7.21 BB/9 2.19 FIP 4.56
Alex Cobb k/9 7.33 BB/9 2.62 FIP 3.68
Lance Lynn k/9 8.46 BB/9 3.40 FIP 3.64

You’ve got Hughes and Gibson in the system right now. They cost nothing additional and have all the same question marks in terms of injuries and consistency as Cobb and Lynn

Lynn has been facing a pitcher every 9th batter, they’re all coming out relatively the same in the wash.

Go big with Darvish, trade for Archer or Erasmo Ramirez, or gamble with In house options. Romero or Gonsalves or Hughes or May; someone will stick.

Don’t get sucked in to another TR special 4 year 60(then 50) mil deal for a guy that doesn’t move the needle.

Edited by Sconnie, 24 January 2018 - 01:57 PM.

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#52 RegularJoe62

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Posted 24 January 2018 - 01:55 PM

Pocket the cash and break the bank for Kershaw next year. 


#53 jsink22

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Posted 24 January 2018 - 02:59 PM

There was a time when the Twins signed Kevin Correia and we were okay with it because he could "eat innings."The fact that Yu Darvish is even being mentioned at this point is awesome.

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#54 FormerMinnasotan

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Posted 24 January 2018 - 03:18 PM

If we could pull off getting Darvish I would. I think he’d be more of an ace we are looking for. After that I would look and try for Jake Arrieta as I think he’d do well here at Target Field. After that would be Lance Lynn. His personality might not be great, but he’s very solid and when healthy has been one of the better starters in the league. If all those options are off the table then Alex Cobb would be worth signing. Cobb is solid, however he has never been a real durable starter.
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#55 jtkoupal

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Posted 24 January 2018 - 07:18 PM

Adding two starters suddenly creates a pretty good rotation of at least 4 solid starters. That can get you to the playoffs. However, Cobb or Lynn doesn't win you playoff games. In the playoffs, you're facing all-star or close to it staring pitchers almost every night. Cobb and Lynn combined wins games in conjunction with what the Twins have already, but come playoff time, Darvish can match up better against Verlander/McCullers/Cole/etc. This also allows Santana and Berrios some more favorable match-ups as well. Also, let's not forget that Gibson and Mejia are projected to be of similar value to Cobb and Lynn, respectively. Therefore, I believe it is logical to spend on one pitcher that pushes the needle instead of investing the same amount of two pitchers that barely push it. If this were the Pirates, I would say get the two cheaper pitchers. This situation for the Twins is different. If we want to win a Wild Card game against the Red Sox, Yankees, or Angles, Yu Darvish is better suited to start that game than Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn. Because of the Twins current situation, Yu Darvish must be the answer.

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#56 HitInAPinch

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Posted 25 January 2018 - 06:35 AM

I don't think Darvish along get's the Twins fully over the hump.Just a gut feeling.I would absolutely love to see Mejia or Gonsalve or another MiLBer step up to some MLB experience.I'm also looking at how much longer Santana can be reliable. 

 

The clock is ticking......

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It's not my fault !


#57 Kelly Vance

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Posted 25 January 2018 - 12:47 PM

You need two studs in a short playoff series and 3 in a longer series. Darvish gives us a chance in game 1, and Erv can have a dominant game 2 if he gets his slider over. In the WC game he couldn't command the slider. Berrios is almost but not quite there to be a 1 or 2. He may emerge this year. 

 

I don't mind trading a couple almost studs to get a real stud. 

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#58 Mike Sixel

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Posted 25 January 2018 - 12:49 PM

 

I don't think Darvish along get's the Twins fully over the hump.Just a gut feeling.I would absolutely love to see Mejia or Gonsalve or another MiLBer step up to some MLB experience.I'm also looking at how much longer Santana can be reliable. 

 

The clock is ticking......

 

I don't either, but IMO, you still need to sign/acquire better players. He's a start. He's here and effective, imo barring injuries, for 3-4 years. That is really big, given the window of Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Polanco, Kepler.....

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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#59 kab21

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Posted 25 January 2018 - 01:00 PM

 

I don't think Darvish along get's the Twins fully over the hump.Just a gut feeling.I would absolutely love to see Mejia or Gonsalve or another MiLBer step up to some MLB experience.I'm also looking at how much longer Santana can be reliable. 

 

The clock is ticking......

Signing Darvish doesn't block Mejia or Gonsalves from stepping up. Signing Cobb and Lynn actually does since they occupy two rotation spots.

I absolutely go for quality instead of quantity. The Twins have MANY interesting AA/AAA arms to give a shot next year. I don't have high hopes for any of them immediately but there is a lot of talent to fill the back end of the rotation. I can actually conceive the Twins having a solid rotation top to bottom.

But I want Darvish/Berrios at the top (Ervin is alright and steady). This gives you a pretty good playoff rotation.

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Is 2016 2017 2018 the year that a good pitching prospect is truly blocked by 5 good pitchers in the starting rotation? 

Offseason (noun) - a time to propose trades assuming opposing GM's can't do the same basic analysis


#60 gil4

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Posted 25 January 2018 - 06:45 PM

 

There was a time when the Twins signed Kevin Correia and we were okay with it because he could "eat innings."The fact that Yu Darvish is even being mentioned at this point is awesome.

I don't remember too many people being OK with Correia, and I remember a lot of people being upset about the Twins wasting a roster spot and $10M or so on a replacement-level pitcher. 

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