Totally respect you take, but would disagree that history shows low level prospects have a better chance of making an impact at the major league level over a guy that has done it for 5 years.
Both those pitchers have had Tommy John, which I guess could be both a positive and negative,
The other 3 haven't yet made it out of short season ball yet. Graterol 51 total innings, Baddo 370 total at bats, Javier 210 plate appearances.
I like all of them and hope the heck you are right, but the probability of prospects show, Romero ends up in the pen, and one of the other 3 have a cup of coffee in the majors.
I get this, although my sense is that there's a high probability that at least one of those four does better than a cup of coffee or a spot as a commodity in the pen. Badoo could very well end up being another Joe Benson, who also occupied a spot at the back end of the top 100 lists. But it's important to consider that all of these guys also occupied spots at the tail end of BA's list at one point: Archer (89, 2011), Arrieta (99, 2010), Andrelton Simmons (92, 2011), Kimbrel (86, 2012). While I'm not directly comparing Graterol, Romero, Javier, and Badoo to any of these guys, there's enough similarity, I think, to validate the argument here.
The questions I ask myself are, how likely is it that at least one of those guys ends up realizing the ceiling they have, which is at least somewhat similar to the names I just mentioned, and then how likely is it that Archer avoids the kind of injury that derails so many pitchers? Frankly, it's the second question that is more concerning to me.
This is why I want Jimmy Pohlad to cut a check for a FA starter. If that guy gets hurt, it's just Jimmy's money.
Edited by birdwatcher, 24 January 2018 - 10:50 AM.